Up next in 10
Donald Trump is looking for ways to punish NATO countries for not supporting the Iran War, including reviewing Britain’s claim to the Falkland Islands. Options are being detailed in an email in which some NATO members have been named and shamed for not permitting the US access to bases, or overflight rights for the Iran War, according to officials. Ali Miraj hears from callers on the subject to answer the question - 'Is the US officially a rogue state?' 00:01 | Darragh from Kilmore: 'England's stuck between a rock and a hard place' 04:14 | Steve from Port Stanley in the Falklands believes this to be a 'non-story' 09:38 | Steph from Peterborough: 'The only person supporting Trump right now is Netanyahu' 13:42 | Milo from Seven Sisters dissects where Chile and Argentina sit in this 17:34 | David from Uxbridge: 'Trump's just sending a message' 19:37 | Tom from Henley thinks Trump is a 'real life Bond villain' 22:13 | Christina from Ipswich has some family ties to the Falklands 25:06 | Simon from Basingstoke talks NATO Listen to the full show on the all-new LBC App: https://app.af.lbc.co.uk/btnc/thenewlbcapp #AliMiraj #USA #DonaldTrump #Trump #US #USPolitics #Politics #UK #News #WorldNews #LBC LBC is the home of live debate around news and current affairs in the UK. Join in the conversation and listen at https://www.lbc.co.uk/ Sign up to LBC’s weekly newsletter here: https://l-bc.co/signup
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0:00
England's stuck between a rock and a hard plate
0:04
Now, I lived in the UK for 30 years, got friends and family in the business
0:08
and the business over there, I love the people. They're really going to be in a bind here
0:13
because the fantasy of the special relationship historically has shown has ever only gone one way
0:19
where they basically stole the family's silver at the end of World War II
0:24
and continue to do so to this day. Now, the big thing regarding the Falklands
0:29
is that there is, at the moment, estimated 800 billion barrels of oil
0:36
That starts getting extracted in 2028. There's estimated another 3.1 billion down there
0:43
That's a lot of money. The Americans are giving billions to Argentina because the economy is in a mess
0:49
And just finding out today that they get an F-16 and they told the British to stay away from the deal
0:55
Don't stop us. so everything's lining up where America can just say well
1:00
Argentina did it, it's not us we're not involved but there certainly will be when it comes to the
1:06
extraction of the oil now people say oh what about NATO where is NATO in the 80s
1:12
in the first invasion well it's a very good point where was it
1:17
it was a disputed territory so it doesn't come under article 5
1:22
now I had a brother-in-law I was at my brother's wedding, I was at about 10 at the time
1:28
when he was missing an action during the war. You know? And people need to understand as well
1:35
the only way, the only reason the Argentinians were able to get to the police
1:41
was because Israel was, through Paraguay, secretly selling weapons, arms, their fuel tanks during the war
1:52
to the Argentinians, and these are meant to be England's best ally in the Middle East
1:58
I don't think so. Okay, so where does it leave us, Dara, right now in terms of whether the US is a rogue state or not
2:05
and what it means for Falkland Islanders and our stance towards this leaked Pentagon memo
2:11
Because frankly, we're dealing with a very, very unpredictable man who's president of the US
2:16
He's surrounded by a group of henchmen who effectively, as far as we can see
2:21
They don't challenge anything he says whatsoever. Indeed, some of them think they're in a US war film in Hollywood
2:29
I mean, what do we do here? Well, the thing about the man's world is he says the quiet bit out loud
2:35
where politicians in the past would be very little mattering what to say. He says it out loud
2:41
So we get to see behind the curtain about American foreign policy. it's
2:47
been a rogue state ever since the fall of the USSR because there's nobody to hold into
2:53
account or to say no you can't do that. For example the Suez Crisis
2:59
where Britain and France colluded with the Israelis to attack the streets and
3:05
to attack Egypt and then the British and the French said oh we need to come in there and take over and make sure
3:11
it's peaceful. The Russians where they're going, no, you're not doing this
3:16
Eisenhower sided with the Russians because the Russians were going to kick off at the time and told the British to get out
3:22
So since then, they've basically done whatever they wanted to do. Okay, well, they have
3:27
They have, but then the way that they're pushing people is that people have
3:31
to determine what they're now going to do. Either they're going to jump on the American bandwagon
3:36
either they're going to tool up themselves, and thirdly, they might even want to acquire nuclear weapons too
3:42
which is the case with Iran. when it looks at how other states are defending themselves
3:46
On this particular issue, I think, frankly, we've got to be in a position where we have capacity
3:52
to defend our own territory overseas. All bets are off. If F-16s are being sold by the Danes to the Argentinians
4:01
with the complicity and support of the US, and you've got Mille going around basically saying
4:08
that he wants to do everything humanly possible to bring the islands back into Argentinian hands
4:12
I think it tells you everything you need today. I think it's a non-story. The Falklands is British
4:18
Your message before earlier on is absolutely fundamental. Whether you have Jimmy Badenock, Keir Starmer and Nigel Farage
4:24
all agreeing on the subject, cross-party support for the Falklands. It's a non-story
4:28
I mean, I don't want to comment on whether it's a rogue state or not. I just wanted to give you the Falklands perspective
4:34
Nobody here is worried. We are absolutely stoic in the fact we are British
4:38
as is the British government. And I think it's a complete non-story. it's a leaked email, which means absolutely nothing to the people of the Falklands
4:45
It might not mean anything to the people of the Falklands, Steve, in the sense that you
4:49
see yourself as British, but when you hear the US in this leaked document talking about
4:57
European imperial possessions, and the fact that Donald Trump is very close to Javier
5:03
Mille, the Argentinian president, are you not a little bit concerned? Well, of course we are
5:10
There are right-wing governments in both Chile and Argentina. And CATS has thrown his support behind LA as well
5:17
But the British government is absolutely straight up the middle of the road
5:22
This is British overseas territory and will remain so. And the UN is also really clear
5:27
The UN is also clear. The right of self-determination sits for the people of the country
5:32
And we also voted for that as well. Steve, Steve, you're speaking like a man who still believes and who's still under the illusion that international law and sovereignty and the will of people matters
5:44
It doesn't matter, Steve. I've got news for you. It's also true. That's very true
5:47
Right? Unfortunately, I wish it did. Yeah, absolutely. So, Steve, so let's face the reality
5:53
So you're saying that you and your fellow islanders, the majority, I think 98%, want to remain a British overseas territory
6:00
Is that correct? That's absolutely right. That's how the referendum came out
6:05
So to have credibility in any engagement when it comes to international affairs
6:11
and particularly military affairs, you need to have two things. You need to have capacity and you need to have will
6:17
At the moment, the UK government is saying that it has the will
6:21
or it's making the noises that the Falklands is a British overseas territory
6:26
and that is not up for negotiation. Does it have the capacity right now and the will
6:31
to actually go and deal with that potential threat if the Argentinians were to fly F-16s over the territory
6:37
and start bombing or start invading the islands? Would they? I don't know
6:43
I mean, I have to say, as a citizen, the experience of HMS Dragon and the deployment to Cyprus and so on makes you nervous Yes I not worried NATO is strong NATO would be there behind us
6:57
I have absolutely no concerns about the capacity of the UK government
7:01
to support us if we need to. Steve, Steve. Frankly, it's never going to get to that, is it
7:06
It's never going to get to that point. Well, it only got to that point in 1982, Steve. A long time ago
7:11
It was a long time ago. And a very different Argentina in 1982. And a very different..
7:16
I understand that, Steve. I understand. Look, I understand that you're trying to put a positive spin on it
7:23
And I understand that, right? Because it's existential for you because you're living there. I fully get it, right
7:27
But when you have a situation where Javier Mille, only three weeks ago
7:31
is basically claiming quite publicly that the Falkland Islands should be Laszlo Malvinas, right, and wants to reassert the claim of sovereignty over it
7:43
you've got to be concerned, haven't you? Yeah, they've been claiming that for hundreds of years
7:48
I mean, Malay is the least passionate Melvinista that we've had for a long time
7:54
Malay's approach is very different. It's more likely to be a cold war than it would be to be a hot war
8:00
I have absolute confidence in the British government. And they can push and push
8:04
I can see this being a Greenland-type distraction for Trump and his team
8:11
And it's a non-starter. It really is. And I just can't express how much the people of the Falklands, you know
8:17
are so confident in how much the British government will support us, no matter what
8:22
And NATO is so strong in that respect. But is it really strong
8:27
Yeah, but Steve, look, I mean, Rutter basically had to basically play the Trump's My Daddy Act, right
8:34
at Davos, to walk this guy down off the edge of the precipice, right
8:37
I mean, everyone was worrying about Greenland. Is Greenland last week or back then a few months ago
8:42
It's Cuba one week, it's Iran the next. It might be the Falklands next. I don't know
8:46
I can't predict what this guy says. And if he's going around throwing his weight around the whole entire world at the moment
8:51
particularly the Middle East, in candid ill thought through wars, where international relations and international law is out the window
8:59
then it's might is right and you need to protect yourself. The only thing I would be focusing on, Steve
9:03
is trying to lobby the government like hell to go and beef up its military capacity and spending
9:09
which at the moment it's patently failing to do. It's still handing out benefits willy-nilly
9:15
I couldn't comment on that. I don't live in the UK. I'm an Australian citizen as well
9:19
I'm a British citizen. But all I can say is we have absolute confidence
9:23
in the British government and absolute confidence in British armed forces as well
9:27
And that's a really important message. It's a non-story. It's just an absolute non-starter
9:32
All right. Well, we hope it's a non-story. And I hope I'm as confident as you
9:36
but Steve, in this world, all bets are off. The only people that agree with Trump at the moment
9:40
is Netanyahu. And the whole of Europe, including Italy, are against him
9:47
Nobody wants him. And the problem is you can't... I mean, this connection with America
9:53
it goes beyond Trump. And the thing is, Trump can... You talk about international law
9:59
NATO, attack one of us, attack all of us. Like, this is another..
10:06
And telling the world that the UK and our Prime Minister is useless
10:12
and they need to ramp up our military spend. What about... What did the Tories do, Ali
10:21
14 years? I'm not disagreeing with you. How long does it take to build a warship
10:27
How long does it take to build fighter planes? Steph, I'm not going to argue with you on this
10:31
I agree with you. I completely agree with you. No, but Steph, look, I agree with you
10:35
This is not about the political point. I mean, I mentioned the point about benefits and bullets
10:40
for the simple reason that that is a choice that any government is going to have to face
10:45
and all European governments having to face, right? Does that benefit thing affect pensioners
10:51
or on pension credit? It affects all of us. Does that affect people that are working
10:54
that have been on terrible wages for 14 years who have had to get your..
10:59
But what I'm saying is you cannot keep... You media cannot keep saying how weak this country is
11:05
But, Steph, it is weak. But it is weak, though. No, it isn't. Steph, come on, come on
11:09
We're in NATO. We're not weak. Steph, Steph, Steph, Steph, hold on. Let's break this down, please
11:14
I'm the second caller that's disagreeing with you. That's okay, Steph. It's a free country
11:18
People can disagree with them once they want. It's called free speech, Ali. Of course it is, and you're entitled to it
11:22
and I respect your right to free speech, and I respect your view even though I don't agree with it, right
11:27
Steph, you're talking about NATO. NATO is a complete paper tiger right now
11:33
If the US doesn't back NATO, NATO would capitulate and fold like a cheap suit
11:39
No, it isn't. Yes, it is. You have a right-wing view on the world
11:45
And I'm telling you now, NATO is stronger than any other... How? How? How is it strong
11:50
Who's the biggest country in NATO with the biggest military in NATO? Who is it? Also, you do realise that NATO do have rules and regulations as well
11:58
Steph, Steph. If a country attacks this country or the Falklands, NATO will stand in. Steph
12:06
They're more powerful than Argentina. Steph, Steph. Before you go, who is the biggest power in NATO
12:13
I know you're going to say America. No, right. That's right. But you know what
12:16
They're not a bigger power because they've got a nut job. OK. But they are a bigger power
12:22
So, right, your whole ysis falls down very quickly, and I'll tell you why. No, it doesn't
12:26
No, it does. In theory, now, hold on. It does. In theory, if you were living in a world where international law was respected and the rules-based order, which we deluded ourselves existed, somewhat existed to a certain degree, had not been completely ridden roughshod over by this president in the last 15 months or so, I might actually take your protestations and your argument with a little bit more seriousness
12:50
But I don't, because we're living in a world of might is right. And unless you've got the bombs and the bullets, and unless you can take care of yourself, you can't rely on NATO
12:57
Why on earth do you think the French are talking about extending their nuclear deterrent capability to the rest of Europe
13:04
Because you can't rely on the US. Now, if you haven't accepted that point, Steph, and woken up to it yet, that's fine
13:10
I'm not. I'm thinking so, Ali. What you've got to think of here, I mean, do you honestly think Trump and Netanyahu are going to get away with what they've been doing
13:20
No, they're not. Well, who's going to bring it into your account
13:24
Who's going to bring it into your account? The International Court of Justice, Steph. Don't make me laugh. Don't make me laugh. They're not signatories to it
13:30
Almost woke people. Hey, Ali. Steph, Steph, Steph. See the problem with this argument you making is it got no credibility right It might make you feel better in Peterborough It got no credibility There are two big issues here that have changed since the 80s And the key things are around
13:49
Chile, for one, which actually your first caller alluded to, is that the government of Chile
13:55
is led by a guy called José Manuel Cast. And he is very pro-Argentina. We had Pinochet
14:02
back in the 80s, who was a known friend of Mrs. Thatcher and was giving us logistical support during the Falklands invasion
14:10
The second part of it is that also the U.S. has been providing
14:14
a lot more support to Argentina, particularly with regard to its shale gas industry
14:19
which is to do with a lawsuit previously that the U.S. has quietly shelved against the Argentine national oil producer
14:28
which is called YPF. Now, the reason they're doing all of this is they want to enhance claims to commodities all over the world
14:38
And so, as we've discussed before, the commonalities in the foreign policy center around access to commodities foremost
14:46
which is why Cuba has taken a relative backseat because it doesn't have many
14:51
And so, when we look at the Falklands, one of your previous calls has mentioned the access to oil, which is true
14:57
but it's also access to the Atlantic Shelf. And when you take that together with Greenland, you have a commonality around looking for rare earths once the ice melts
15:08
And so it's an extension of the Don Road auction. It's very, very clear
15:15
I don't think NATO will be able to do much. As one of your other calls said, they didn't do much the first time around
15:22
I don't envisage that they will do much in this case either, particularly if Denmark is actually supplying Argentina with the F-16s
15:30
Absolutely. Of course it is. So what can we do about it
15:34
Well, in reality, there has to be a medium and long-term strategic plan
15:40
The first is we are probably going to have to move to a state where we have a defence levy of some kind on top of general taxation
15:48
I don't think it can just come from general taxation alone. Okay. and that means we have to set out our own priorities
15:55
in terms of having things like anti-ballistic missile shields and improving naval capacity and cybersecurity at home
16:02
but also how that looks for our overseas territories and what we can do to defend them
16:07
But finish your point, Miley, go on. Because if we don't, the reality is we will shrink further
16:15
and we will be basically left further and further behind, and we also need to build up an independent defence sector
16:22
which isn't so reliant on the US. But that is exactly the point
16:26
Now, when is the penny going to drop, Milo, in people's heads in this country
16:30
about an independent defence sector, or at least a defence sector, where you ally with people who share your values
16:37
to the best extent you can, because no one can predict the future. But if the Europeans are indeed more on the right mindset with us
16:45
and share more of our values in the US, so be it. Go and partner up with them
16:50
and try and make a defence pact. But we've got to be independently capable
16:54
haven't we? We do. And, I mean, if you look at countries which are in a far worse geostrategic position
17:00
than we are, so you look at countries like Turkey, for instance, which is right there in the middle of things
17:06
as far as the Middle East is concerned, they have built up an entirely independent defence industry. Absolutely
17:12
Germany has also done the same. And Poland is doing the same as well. Poland is doing the same
17:16
Yeah, absolutely. And we have to seriously look at how we're going to invest in these things
17:22
I just don't, I honestly don't think that the penny has yet dropped sufficiently
17:26
for people to have this conversation, right? Now, maybe the Falklands thing is another wake-up call
17:31
I don't know how many more we need, but maybe that's it, Milo. The way I see what Trump's doing is that he's sending a message to Britain
17:38
about know your place and who has power and who really doesn't have very much at all, and that's us
17:45
in the previous caller, and you made this point, that Britain is, in effect, certainly on defence
17:51
and a lot of our technology, a vassal state, consecutive governments have made Britain
17:59
you know, the right-wing Labour, the Tories and reform, they've made Britain a vassal state to the US
18:05
Well, reform haven't been in, to be fair. I mean, they might make it a vassal state in the sense that they suck up to the US
18:10
but they haven't been in power to actually deliver any military spending, to be fair, have they
18:14
Yeah, well that's true but the way Farage is going and his alliances with Trump
18:19
it would make it worse and it's good now that we're actually having a debate
18:24
about this because the right wing press and most of the press don't want to talk about
18:27
what we call the Atlanticist mentality That's a good point The Atlanticist mentality
18:34
that pervades that you can't question this reliance and it doesn't have to be like that
18:40
France isn't so much like that Turkey, you know, and we need to, you know, like, what's the point? Like 200 billion on Trident
18:49
when the switch can be turned off in Atlanta, Georgia, or 75 billion on the F-35, when all the
18:56
software can be clicked at a switch, you know? Well, I think it's a very important point
19:01
and it's something that's been raised by Mark Carney, the Canadian Prime Minister, in terms of
19:06
actually weaning Canada off reliance for military hardware and support from the US. I mean, they are
19:15
actively now changing their procurement strategy. Now, it doesn't happen overnight. It takes time
19:21
And people will be not only doing that, but also we're looking at their alliances more broadly
19:25
whether they tilt towards Asia and China more, whether they who they procure their military
19:31
hardware and software from. All of that's got to be in play. David, thank you for your..
19:36
view. Has anyone actually seen any likenesses that Trump is actually, is the real life
19:43
Bond villain and he wants to get control of the whole world's oil so he can run
19:49
the world. But why does he need control of the oil? They've got enough oil and gas themselves
19:53
They're the biggest oil and gas producer in the world. Because he wants to run the world
19:58
But I thought it was about America first. I thought it was about America first. Yeah, well you see
20:03
for instance the Falklands business he's been sending F-16 selling them to the Argentine
20:09
that's well known he's worked his way into Argentinian business, they owe him
20:15
big time and they will be his vassal in the South Atlantic
20:20
I most definitely will take on the Fordans and grab it and I want to use it as a base
20:27
for the oil exploration and further exploration into the Antarctica So Tommy it sounds like you saying that the u has become a rogue state are you one thousand percent okay so if that the case tom
20:41
what do we do about it what's our policy response going to be what's our collective response as a
20:47
nation going to be because you can't blame the government unless people get behind the fact
20:51
that we're now in a new reality i don't blame the government solely for anything i blame all of us
20:56
because I think we need to face a reality check. What do we do? I couldn't tell you
21:02
I don't have a plan. I'm still reeling from all the various aspects
21:07
of his multifaceted attack across the world. He sends rogue messages out
21:14
We're all looking over there in Greenland and really what he wants is the Falklands
21:20
And everyone's focusing on building their own defence systems up. they haven't got the money or the will
21:27
to send anyone to the Falklands. We can't do it ourselves. The Frenchers certainly won't
21:33
because it's a North Atlantic treaty. They're going to say, we're busy up here
21:38
So he's picking his time and he's not as random as you think
21:43
This has been cooking. I've been saying this for months and this is the first time I've actually gone on
21:48
Probably he's not random at all. He might be very strategic for all I know. That's why I think
21:53
when people say Trump's a buffoon, they're completely wrong. I don't think he's a buffoon at all, actually
21:57
I think he's a very dangerous man, and I also think he's a very strategic man. So you may be
22:01
right, Tom. I think the only thing that we can do is to try and arm up
22:05
tool up, get ourselves ready as best we can, counting on NATO to come to our defence
22:08
when an overseas territory is attacked like the Falklands. I wouldn't bet on it at all
22:13
My great-great-grandfather was governor of the Falklands. Wow! Yeah, well, it was a wow way
22:20
However, in the Great War, according to his notes, his diaries, he felt that they were being in the Great War
22:27
they had to sort of sort out some sort of home guard it was three men and a goat
22:31
and he felt very deserted by the mother country moving on swiftly to the 80s and to the Falklands
22:39
my father was in shipping and he was hauled up before number 10
22:43
given a list of ships to move our troops and he said well you haven't got this
22:47
you sold this, you scrapped that and we don't own this and he was going around the world
22:52
carrying favours from shipping owners to move our troops. Now, certainly since the 80s
22:58
there have been so many military cutbacks on anything that at the moment, if we had to have a crisis
23:04
if we had a crisis, it would be three men and a goat. That's all we could send
23:08
But NATO will save us, Christina. But NATO will save us, according to Steph, Christina
23:14
Well, I think that's a wonderful idea, but NATO is so heavily stretched
23:18
because you probably have about three or four main NATO countries who always
23:23
step up to the mark, and then you've got the other ones who sort of are a bit flaky
23:27
because they haven't got the manpower, they haven't got the finances, and as soon as you
23:31
put into a war plateau, up goes the cost. So... Where does it leave us, Christina? Where does it leave us now
23:39
In terms of our relationship with the US, the security of the Falkland Islands
23:43
what happens? Right, well I think what it actually leaves us, out of the ten territories that we have
23:47
outside of the UK, they need to be made kingdoms now what would now what difference would that make christine because that is something
23:53
that has been talked about as well giving more rights to the falkland islanders a proper governance
23:58
not just an overseas territory but uh changing the status why would that make any difference
24:02
well effectively uh as soon as somebody sets foot onto a territory land that's been made a kingdom
24:09
you are actually setting foot on a kingdom on the united kingdom so it's like setting foot i don't
24:15
You know, on Dover, for example, from that point of view. And it would actually give, although the sovereign has no political power
24:25
they are very much on the back channels and quiet diplomats. It would be, you've invaded us, so they'll back off
24:34
But do you think they will? Because still, it comes back to my point again
24:38
where it's an overseas territory or it's, as you say, a kingdom
24:42
You've still got to be able to go and enforce if someone actually comes and tries to take your territory
24:47
you've got to be able to defend it. You can't rely on anyone else, right
24:52
You certainly can't rely on NATO at the moment, where the largest power in NATO is going around
24:57
engaging in errant practices all over the Gulf, frankly. I mean, I just can't see it at all
25:02
Christine, thank you very much indeed for your perspective. I seem to remember that we were a member of NATO in 1982
25:09
when the Falklands War broke out. Good point. to be frank I don't understand why everybody's getting so excited about this
25:18
you know I remember the shuttle diplomacy that was going on during the Falklands war
25:22
the Americans did give us some assistance during the war to be frank most of it was informal
25:29
because they were very concerned about maintaining a right-wing junta in power in Argentina because
25:37
It is their backyard, and they didn't want a communist state to be there
25:42
So, look, countries don't have allies. They have interests. And everybody in the UK needs to wake up to this
25:51
You're quite right. It was recently announced that we are spending more on benefits
25:56
than we raise on income tax. That's not sustainable. It's not sustainable in any world
26:01
It's certainly not sustainable in this world. But Steph is saying that NATO will come to our defence
26:06
if anyone attacks the Falklands? Well, it's a joke. I mean, Germany, at one stage
26:14
Germany didn't have, like, one operational frigate, no operational submarines. Something like 70% of its combat aircraft
26:23
weren't operational. The only significant militaries in, European militaries in NATO, are the UK, France, Poland and Turkey
26:33
That's very true. Everyone else is militarily irrelevant. and to be frank, you know, Britain and France are verging on that as well
26:41
You know, if you don't want to be pushed around, spend money on defence. Otherwise, get used to being pushed around
26:46
That is exactly the point, Simon. You put it very, very clearly, and I understand Steph and others getting, you know
26:53
feeling that NATO will come to defence. The reality is, if we've learnt anything, you can't rely on the US
26:59
You've got to stand on your own two feet. Simon, thank you. Richard says this, you're asking the wrong question
27:03
Argentina is in the US backyard why wouldn't the US support Argentina's claim
27:10
the UK should be focused on European security negotiate on the Falklands and the Malvinas
27:17
well, or the Falklands is the Malvinas I suppose you could say
27:21
because the Argentinians call it that well Steve, that won't please you
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