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you're about to discover the answer to
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the question will people cruise again
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I'm Gary Bainbridge this is another of
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my cruising tips for travelers there is
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very conflicting information out there
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about what's happening with cruising
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moving into next year in terms of our
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people booking or aren't they're booking
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on the one hand we see lots of reports
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particularly from cruise travel agencies
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to get online travel agencies talking
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about cruising bookings for 2021
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looking really good looking really
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strong we've seen cruise lines though as
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they issue more financial updates
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particularly to the SEC in the United
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States as they've gone round raising
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money to improve liquidity to cover them
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over the shut down they talk about
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future of bookings being pretty weak and
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real concerns around whether they're
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actually going to be able to attract
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enough people on their ships both of
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those can't be right can they well I
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actually think they probably can and
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what I'm going to do is explain why I
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think that is the case a lot of it
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depends on who you're focusing on I want
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to talk about five different groups of
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cruises and what I think is going to
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happen and why those numbers that we're
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talking about and seeing are so
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different one of the big things
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overarching all of what happens with
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cruising is what's become increasing
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known as cruise shaming there's been an
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enormous amount of negative publicity
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towards the cruise lines and the role of
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cruising media especially has gone out
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quite aggressively anti cruising
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creating that new expression of floating
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petri dishes which everyone's banding
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around but a really really strong strong
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position against cruising and warning
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people the cruising is a really
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dangerous thing to do and that has
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become part of the narrative the cruise
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lines and the cruise line Association
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have not yet really been able to change
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that narrative they haven't really found
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a way of really getting group with a
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narrative and in many ways they've lost
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that narrative I think and they're going
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to have a really big challenge to
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overcome it so let's take a look at the
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five different types of cruises and why
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I think we're seeing that conflicting
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information first of all let's talk
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about frequent cruises people who have
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been on many many cruises you know
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people have been on 10 20 30 even more
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cruises they undoubtedly will return to
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cruising and they are the ones that are
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today looking for deals in 2021 then you
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get to know in the shutdown ends because
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they want to get back on a cruise most
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of them will have future cruise credit
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from council cruises that they're now
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looking to spend as soon as they
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those people are clearly out there
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looking to book cruises most of them I'm
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gonna not get their cruise fix or
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they've lost many of the cruises they've
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got planned for 2020 and they're looking
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to fill up their 2021 schedule and
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calendar and they're looking out for any
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deal that goes and they're booking
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cruises those people will keep cruising
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very importantly they also reenter stand
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the whole cruising process they know the
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sanitation process you know the
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procedures they're probably much more
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flexible as changes coming around the
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way that we cruise those people want to
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get back on board as soon as they
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possibly can and they're booking they're
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also probably the people that are most
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likely to be booking with their agents
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so they're gonna be out talking to their
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agents trying to use the future cruise
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credit trying to move things around and
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get things books I think this is why
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particularly seeing a lot of the cruise
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agencies seeing quite a positive build
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of cruises the second group which is
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much more challenging and a real
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challenge I think for the cruise lines
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is the people who perhaps you know one
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cruise at a push maybe two cruises
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they've tried cruising they don't cruise
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very often and they need to decide will
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they get back on board a ship I think
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this is gonna be a big challenge because
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of all the stuff that we've seen with
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the negative publicity but I think what
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I'm seeing in forums and seeing comments
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on my channel I'm seeing lots of people
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being interviewed this group of people's
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biggest concern is what happens if they
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get quarantine so they're very nervous
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about the stories and what happened in
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the shutdown period where ships were not
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being loaded into ports people being
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quantum on on the ships for long periods
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of time of weeks they're worried about
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the spread of disease and stuff around
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the ship I think that's really spooked
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people so though they've been on a
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cruise and they liked it and they would
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probably come back as part of their
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repertoire of vacations I think that
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group of people are going to be less
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inclined to return to cruising and
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they're gonna look much more ahead
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lambaste I think this is a big chance
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some of those of course will have loft
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cruisers I think a lot of those and city
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what I'm seeing in again comments on the
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channel those the people are pushing
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very hard to get money back rather than
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future cruise credits and I think the
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people who are light cruisers occasional
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cruises are people who holding back
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that's certainly I've seen I saw study
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in one of the newspapers here in the UK
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where I'm recording this where the
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independent newspaper they did a survey
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looking at people who cruise the last
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people cruise infrequently and a very
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large percentage of those were saying
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that they would not go back cruising
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either forever or Sony for a long time
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so I think that's part of the challenge
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that we're seeing as the cruise lines
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looking future bookings I don't think
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those people are coming back in any big
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numbers and you can probably see why
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because cruising was only a little part
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of their mix of vacations the third
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group and this is where I think the
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cruise lines are probably more ride than
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anywhere else that's the people who've
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never cruised but we're considering a
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cruise cruise lines were extremely
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aggressive recruiting new to cruise that
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was really good the lifeblood bringing
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people on board a cruise getting them
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hooked on cruising and most their
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marketing spend their advertising spend
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their promotions incentives the work
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they did with agents was all around
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getting people on cruise new to cruise
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every time I talk to a cruise agency
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they're obsessed with new to cruise
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because CLE your freaking clue cruisers
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whilst people onboard the future cruise
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people can normally do a good job of
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trying to cross sell people on to the
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next cruise but new to cruise getting
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them on board people who they know are
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considering a cruise this is where and
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why I think we're seeing the cruise
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lines talking about demand being so weak
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because a big big part of their strategy
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and their capacity and their build was
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to bring those new to cruise people on
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and those are the people who are going
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to be most spooked and driven away from
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cruising they they don't know how
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cruising works they've seen all the
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negative stories that cruise shaming
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issue will be a challenge their friends
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their family will be like well you
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really sure you want to go on a cruise
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and this is where I think we're going to
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see a huge issue in turn the fall-off in
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demand so frequent cruisers will be back
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pretty much everyone will be back the
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people don't want so twice a big
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drop-off factor new to cruise getting
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them ownership is gonna be really hard
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because even great deals will in my view
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not overcome their reluctance to get on
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Sydney for a pretty long period of time
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the fourth type of cruises one that
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probably the cruising industry doesn't
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really worry about as much and these are
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the people who would never cruise
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they're saying I will never go on a
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cruise ship and there's two groups of
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people there the first group are people
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who think that cruising is not for them
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because they think there's only for old
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people or it's for people who are not
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very adventurous and what really in a
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safe way of cruising they might see
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themselves to be more adventurous or
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they want to do much more of a deep dive
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and go off the beaten track those other
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people never saw cruising is for them so
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they weren't even really in the new to
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cruise consideration group they will
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stay very much and see us cruising not
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for them without a shadow of a doubt and
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all the stuff that's happened will only
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reinforce their perception the other
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group of course the people who
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absolutely despise cruising they think
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it's a terrible thing from environmental
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and / tourism perspective or they just
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think it's a dangerous thing to be on
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and I do see a lot of both those groups
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of people simply commenting on all my
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stuff around you know being pretty much
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their head cruising and they think it's
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a terrible thing and want cruising to go
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away in its entirety so those people
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will not cruise so they will never
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cruise so they're definitely a group but
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they are not one fundamental to the
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cruise industry turning things around
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another group that it is of really big
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concern I think to the cruising industry
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who are probably holding back or nervous
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about booking and those are senior
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travelers and particulars people over 70
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because in the whole route to the
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shutdown a new rules board in where
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those people and also people who are
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more vulnerable had to get a medical
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certificate before they were allowed to
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board a cruise that was introduced
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originally on a recommendation and the
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u.s. it then spread into the UK and
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other cruising regions and is not going
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to go away I don't think so if you're
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over 70 at the Sprint town you have to
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get a medical certificate many cruise
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lines of course the bulk of their
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passengers are older passengers and you
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know during the course of the year or
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the passengers are a really big
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fundamental part of the whole cruising
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process for many itineraries to get out
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of school holiday season and I think
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those people are going to hold back
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cruising until they really understand
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how safe it is and the procedures for
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that's a really big issue for the cruise
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industry because there are such a
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fundamental big part and I think many of
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those will not go back to cruising what
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percentage they are I don't know but I
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think certainly in the next year or so
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and a lot of those will hold back also
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because the isolation for many of those
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is going to continue way beyond when
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young people are allowed to go out as
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you can see the answer to world people
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cruise again depends so we're going to
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see in some areas people really ready to
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go about cruising and others I think
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increasingly people are gonna say no to
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cruising I do believe this is gonna be a
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massive massive challenge over the next
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year or 18 months for the cruise lines
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who have huge amount of capacity built
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on a growth industry and a lot of people
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are going to be nervous about booking
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and reluctant to booking and how they
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deal with it is going to be very very
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interesting part of the reaction I think
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we'll see over time is more and more
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better pricing and deals but that's
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really gonna get the die-hard cruisers
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on board they have to get the narrative
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back once it's really clear how cruising
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is going to work I do believe they've
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lost the narrative completely around
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cruising and it's a big job to get it
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back and have a lot of work to do to
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convince people again that cruising is a
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great option for travel I'm of course
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pulling that first group I loved
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cruising I know how cruising works I can
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see how they're going to figure it out
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over time and will be one of those
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people that will be booking and getting
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mountain cruising but it's a massive
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massive big challenge will people cruise
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again it depends is I guess the answer I
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have loads more tips advice and points
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of view about cruising so why don't you
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watch another one of those right now