The Rondo - Pro Rel

Is MLS scared of promotion and relegation in the USL

On the record. As the US builds out its soccer infrastructure, one thing is glaringly missing

Promotion and relegation. The system that creates drama to the last minute in leagues like the Premier League

is so missing from US sports that most fans have never even heard of it

Don't even know what it is. The USL is trying to change this and has announced its intention to implement ProRel

across its three-league pyramid system. But will it work? Today, we're here to find out

Tom Rahim, 30 seconds, sum up your point. Tom, you go first

Yes, absolutely, and I think USL are doing it the right way. Pro-REL is like a fundamental part of soccer

It has to be here for it to survive, but it has to be built up over time

There are still some issues. The health insurance, pay-a-play, all of that needs to be figured out

but we're getting there, and I think that's what's important. Rahim, what do you think? Absolutely not

MLS is a single entity organization. they've never backed pro relegation from the beginning and usl just doesn't have the funds

or the structure to really give the players the opportunity to you know thrive off the field they

need to pay insurance they need to focus on other things that make these guys struggle off the field

in order to be a real true league that tests mls yeah no that's really interesting tom uh i know a

lot of american sports fans are not familiar with promotion relegation they're so used to tanking

and the idea of a draft and teams being stuck where they are with no jeopardy if you lose give

just a really brief overview of the history of promotion relegation and what it's like around

the world. ProREL started in the 1890s when two leagues merged in England, right? And basically

during that a bit of a dispute, they said the bottom three from the first league and the top

three from the second league, you go up, you go down. Since then, it's kind of proliferated

become the standard around the world. More or less, every league has some version of it

except MLS. League MX suspended it for a while. And Argentina has kind of a weird one

But this is it. Like, this is soccer culture everywhere outside of America, effectively

What advantages does it bring to the game? Jeopardy is the main one, right

It's every game matters, man. Which is kind of like a little bit BS because, like

you can have Brentford against Crystal Palace on a Wednesday night when it's, like, 11th and 12th, and it's like, who cares

But, like, you can also have teams like Spurs get relegated. Like, Nottingham Forest could go down after being such, like

a legacy Premier League team for a long time, right? Like, these are things that can happen

And I think it also brings fans on a journey. Like, you want to give fans something to get behind and aspire to

There's magic in it. Yeah. What are the drawbacks to promotion and relegation? Finances, right

It can absolutely decimate you as a club. There are going to be massive wage cuts

You're going to have to sell players. There are going to be staff layoffs. Like, being relegated sucks

And it hurts your club. Like, there is a revamp. at least in Europe and kind of around the world as well

Like, it forces you to entirely reconsider where you are. Okay, so promotion relegation is a standard around the world

and the USL just announced their intention to implement it. Tom, give us an update on where that is right now

So the plan is for it to happen by 2028. It announced last year that it's going to have a first division

quote-unquote, to rival MLS. They're calling it the USL Premier League, which is kind of funny

So you have the Premier League, the Championship, and then USL League One. Right now there are 25 teams in the USL Championship

They're basically going to be able to apply for the Premier League. The messaging from the USL is that they expect 12 to 14 teams

in the Premier League the first season. About 8 to 10 of those will be championship teams that get promoted

And then there are going to be some expansion franchises that elect to go straight into it

So some teams have been very vocal with their intent. Like Louisville City have said, we want to be there

A lot of others less so. But basically the point is you're going to have 12 to 14

Two are going to go up. Two are going to go down starting in 28. By five to seven years, the USL say they want to have 20 first division teams

and 20 second division teams. So to do the math, that's 15 new franchises in the next 10 years

You've talked to a lot of GMs and owners about this. Are they really excited? Yes, but to varying degrees

The owners of your quote-unquote richer clubs, you know, your more well-off ones, with great soccer-specific stadiums, are really into it

You know, they want to be there. They believe that they really should be playing at what is an MLS level

But they're probably only four to five around that. Everyone else is excited in terms of the vibe, but then confused in terms of the logistics

Let's put it that way. Yeah. Raheem, you have a lot of friends who play in USL

What are the players thinking about this? I think promotion and relegation for them is just honestly what they see in Europe. So, you know, just adds that jeopardy. Like Tom was saying, it kind of adds more value to the league because you got to remember in USL, you kind of know if you're going to make the playoffs or not by what September, August. You know if your player is going to if you know if you're going to make it far into the season

So having promotion relegation just adds that more competitiveness towards the end of the season where like, OK, now it's not if you make the playoffs

Now it's like if my team is in last place, I'm getting relegated. Like that's a big factor that people need to consider

So I think a lot of players are very receptive to it. Yeah. How does that tie into the general issues that players have been experiencing playing in the USL

I mean, at the end of the day, I feel like promotion and relegation isn't really going to solve a lot of those issues

a lot of the USL issues don't really have to do about the quality of play

or like how the league is made or the rules about it. It's how these players are being treated, man

It's the contracts. It's how they're going to be able to live on an everyday basis

with no health insurance for a lot of these clubs. So a lot of players are more worried about the off the field than on the field

They're not really worried about that. Right, and that's why like, and this gets hyper nerdy

but like the current like CBA negotiations to collect a bargaining agreement

in the USL expired at the start of this year, right? And basically, what I've been told

is that a big sticking point in that is what the hell happens when you have

like ProRel, when you have an expanded field. Because right now you can set minimum standards

for a load of people who are, you know, still kind of almost trying to make it

almost like trying to get by. But then once this thing becomes more professional more money higher quality then how do you maybe protect those guys So it very interesting because they want an agreement that will set up for the next five years No one knows what this league is going to look like in five years

So it's like, you know, you really sympathize with the people who are already there. I mean, one thing that is worth noting

and I've done quite a bit of reporting on this, is that 90% of the players in USL make above, like, the minimum

like, make above what would be league minimum wage, have health insurance, are looked after

So I think some of the perception is a little bit skewed, but that doesn't mean that it's like

screw the 10% that are in trouble, right? So I think there's a lot of nuance

and I think everyone here can say, like, we want the CBA to be sorted

so you can then think a bit more about the future. Yeah. What about the fan reception to this idea

Love it. This is the journey, man. Like, this is the point

Like, you know, you want to be able to get, like as fans of anything

you want your team to show intent, right? And like you want your team to say

look, we can be there. And when we're there, we want to stay there. There are some clubs who are probably

going to tread water a little bit. But like, honestly, like, dude

if you are a USL sicko and you're going to watch El Paso Locomotive

on like a Wednesday night, you want them to fight for three points

on a Wednesday night when some of the lads might kind of be like, it's a Wednesday and like

It's a Wednesday And I got to shift at my actual job tomorrow

Yeah, I mean it's not that drastic But yeah, you know As a fan you want to see your players play

Like every game means the world to them There's going to be a real fight to survive

We saw North Carolina FC In last September Just halted operations altogether

They gave their players two weeks notice And said we're going to give you three months of salary

But by that time of the year There was nowhere else they could go

a lot of those players still aren't employed. They don't have current teams. They lost health insurance

They lost their jobs. And so that sucks for the players, but then also the fans of North Carolina FC

Like, that was your club, bro. Yeah. I'm going to... Actually, your club just gets decimated in the span of a week

I'm going to prompt the kind of tough question here. Oh, God

So I want you guys to check me if I'm being unfair. You're being unfair. Do people even care

Yes. Fans? Yeah. Realistically, if you were to look at a game

game footage from the last season that they played in. Was there 200 people there

Well, I think that's undersold. I think there are some markets, yes

where you're really struggling for attendances, and I get that. But also, at the same time

you want to be able to provide an infrastructure that lets those teams lift up market to their fans

And there is kind of, yeah, a survival of the fittest element to it

which is not fair, right? That's bad capitalism. But like, I honestly think that like, yeah, man, like if you're there every week, it doesn't matter if you're one of 200 or one of 5,000

This is a multimillion dollar entity that is putting on a product that you believe in

You know, you buy the shirt, you buy the Danny Rojas football is life shirt if he does indeed sign for El Paso, you know, like that's the point

It's like you wouldn't say that about like AFC Barrow, would you

You wouldn't be like, well, yeah, no one's there and it's actually the rainiest place in England

Fun fact. The rainiest place in the rainiest place. It's the rainiest place in England

Are they just underwater all the time? Presumably. Dude, that sucks. I'll ask my cousin

But like, point being, like, just because there are 300 guys there

and like, I don't know, like 10,000 at Notts County doesn't like change things that much

No, for sure. You got to be a real USL sicko to go watch a Miami FC game

with like 100 people there. Yeah, you do. You do. Imagine playing in FIU Stadium

Like I'm talking about like 60 to 80,000 and there's really a hundred people there

Like it's actually insane. Like watching some of the USL games and looking at the fan reception, like you'll literally see nobody in the stands

And it's like to the point where like the cameras, they have to have the fans on the other side because they can't show the fact that there's nobody at the game

Yeah. All right. Interesting. Do you think that promotional relegation impacts that at all

Do you think that will make it better? I think it does. I think the product has to grow over time, man

Like, if you look at the early days of MLS, no one was at those games. Yeah

Right? Like, the inaugural season of the league, they did really well. The league was kind of kept afloat by some players at some clubs being from, like, bigger teams

Like, I mean, we were joking off camera about, like, Alexi Lalas. Yeah. But him coming to play for Kansas City like that

He was a draw. Right? He was a draw. You had guys. USL maybe won't be able to lean on big foreign names for a long time

but like you've still got to create something that's watchable and a good experience and i

think for the teams that do end up all right this will definitely lift that what are the drawbacks

of promotion relegation coming to usl teams are going to suffer yeah man finances bro you know

if you get relegated man you lose everything man wages have to go down players have to lose their

contracts and usl they already implement a lot of one-year contracts plus a one-year option and

that one-year option is not for the player. It's for the club. So let's say if your club gets relegated to that second division

a lot of these players will just have no club the following season, which is a lot different than in England

because these guys will sign like a two-year, three-year deal. So even if they get relegated, they still have a club the following season

But if a club gets relegated and the players on that relegation-threatened side

and they have a one-year option on their contract, a lot of the players do, then the whole team is clipped at the end of the year

Yeah, it's funny. and Sacramento Republic, they just announced a couple signings recently, and I believe one

of them is on a guaranteed two-year deal. One player. Which is almost unheard of, right

And that's part of the problem. But I think that the counter-argument to this, and this once again, this isn't fair on some

guys, but like, there's an ever-expanding player pool in the US, and foreign clubs are

looking at USL more and more, and foreign players are more and more aware of it

So there is a sense of maybe like, hey, the floodgates open a little bit here. Tom, how does revenue work for clubs in the USL

Do they get a majority of it from game day stuff? Yes, from ownership in game day

There isn't a substantial broadcast deal, right? And that's part of why, in a way, getting relegated won't hurt as much

That's what I was trying to say. So with the Premier League, when you go down

if Nottingham Forest get relegated this year they going to lose a lot of money But they also going to be supported by parachute payments right You know about these that basically allow you to go back up as soon as possible assuming that you have the quality

In USL, number one, you don't have those right now because there's obviously no pro-rel

But number two, you might not need them because clubs are kind of dependent on the wealth

and the stewardship, if you will, of their owners and their ability to get people through the doors

and buy hot dogs on day-to-day. So, partially, it's like... But the issue is, where can that financial hit be then

Players want to play at a higher level. You're just going to lose some guys, aren't you? This is why I think that promotion relegation actually makes sense for USL to implement

because you're not losing a ton of revenue between USL League One and USL Championship

And I say that because, from the fan perspective, outside of the 500, maybe, sickos that really care and really follow

I think a majority of fans that go to a USL game are just going for a nice day out

you know what I mean it's very similar to the minor league baseball model where like I worked at a minor league

baseball club for a season what club Sussex County Minors it was independent baseball

when I was in college massive club we are massive Sussex County Minors mentioned

we are massive but you know the majority of people that went to any of the games

were not there because they cared about the baseball being played it was s*** baseball right like

no they went because you get to go out you get to have a hot dog like you said

you get to have a beer if you have kids they could run around at like the bounce house outside those bounce houses

Yeah, there was. It was honestly pretty awesome. They get to take pictures with the mascots, and it's like a fun family day out

People don't really care if you are the Durham Bulls, which is like a AAA affiliate

or independent Sussex County minors. You're going because it's a fun day out, and the tickets are $15

and you get to just go hang out somewhere. I think that USL, for most people that go to the games, is pretty similar

and they don't really care if it's the championship or League One, because they're not seeing Messi regardless

You know what I mean? Like I think that it makes sense for them to implement promotion relegation because there's not going to be much of a difference in their revenue stream from that

Right. Right. I think – yeah. I think a lot of USL clubs also like they need to do marketing a lot better

Like you've seen how Portland Parts of Pine, how they came out with the nice kits and like you could see they had a whole structure around them

Even the partnerships they had like with UGG, for example, just made sense because when you think of Portland, Maine, you think of trees, you think of that

Like a lot of these USL clubs around like the Miami FCs, the teams that are struggling

The issue is they don't market or brand themselves in a way that would make you want to even go to a game in the first place

Like you see some of the content of these of these USL clubs, bro

And it's like someone went out there, took a photo on their on their iPhone and just uploaded it to IG

Like, bro, where is the creative strategy to put butts in seats

I feel like a lot of the USL teams, even though they're spending this money to be expansion sides and be in the league

they're not maximizing the opportunity they're not maximizing the chance they have to be a

successful club because they're not doing the things that make a successful club and it goes

further than just on the field product it also has to do with marketing it's funny i've got a

friend who's actually a baseball journalist but he's a baseball journalist who plays a hell of a

lot of fifa and is a west ham fan and he was like usl kits usl branding sick yeah yeah and i think

that's the point right like you need to take advantage of these quote-unquote small markets

Paul and Hart's fine is everyone's fave, but Vermont Green, who are USL League 2, also do it so well

There are other spots that are like AC Boise. Have you heard about this

Yeah, it was Boise. There's a massive Basque population in Boise, Idaho

So they were like, you know, like Real Sociedad, what if we did that but in Idaho

And everyone's like. Polar Bear in Arlington, Texas. My boy Blake Bodily actually plays for them

and he's from Boise, Idaho. So he went back home. I would love if they did the same thing as Bill Bauer

They can only sign players who are from the Idaho. So that is the joke

Like, what if we could only do that? Imagine if... I don't know

Would an Idaho FC be all right? Nah, they'd be cooked. I think that some regions could do it

You could do a Florida. You could do a California. Yeah. Probably do it in Texas. You could have some cities that would have a fire team

Like, for example, like Miami for sure. Los Angeles would be fire

Just of all homegrown players. Yeah. Let us know in the comments which homegrown city

Yeah, no, that's good. All right, so we talked a lot about USL and what promotion and relegation means to that

But I want to bring MLS into the conversation. Is MLS scared of promotion and relegation in the USL

On the record? No. No. No. It's a completely different entity. The funny thing is that MLS has kind of flirted with it the first time

Don Garber said at his State of the League address last year that he would never say never

but then quickly qualified it with, that doesn't mean it's on the way

because a bunch of journalists all went, oh, oh, oh. He said it, he said it

Tom Bogart tweeted. What do you mean Tom Bogart? Tom Hindle. But anyway, sorry Tom, love you

But I think there is a sense that MLS is kind of like

a little more open to the idea but USL, number one, I think the quality is a level below

and people in USL wouldn't be afraid to admit that. Yeah, bro. And number two

it's just a separate entity, man. Like, you're not really a fan of a USL club and an MLS club

I mean, I have this theory that European soccer fans are probably more fans of a USL club

because they think it's hipster. Like, I certainly have some Liverpool guilt around myself

I'm like, shit, I like sport a big club, but what if I also low-key effed with Brooklyn FC

Because that would be cool. Exactly. Definitely, MLS treats USL like that little bro for real

It is little bro for them. Do you think that that's correct from them

or should they be threatened? In my opinion, I don't think MLS feels like they're threatened

I mean, you look at their expansion fees, how much MLS clubs are valued now

Can you even really fathom even USL even on that similar trajectory

Even if promotion and relegation is implemented, I don't see them, I don't see anyone paying 100 mil

for a USL club anytime soon. I think it's interesting because trying to sell this

like imagine you're selling this to your mom, right? My mom can name like three soccer players. It's like Messi, Ronaldo, and Donny Rojas

And like she doesn't know anything about it. And I can imagine myself being like, hey, mom, we should care about the USL, right

And she'd be like, oh, do they have really good players? And you'd be like, no. You'd be like, do they have the best players in the US

And she'd be like, also no. And she's like, well, do they have cool stadiums that provide a unique experience

And 90% of the time, you'd be like, no. And she like well could we watch the games on TV to see highlights or see it on SportsCenter And you be like also no And then she be like well are the kids cool And then half of the time you could be like yes I giving it 75 of the time yes

So it has a long way to go. And MLS, you can say yes to a lot of those questions

Like, do they have world-class stadiums? Yes. Do they have big-name players? Yes

Can you follow it on TV or on social media or on streaming when you're not there at the games? Yes

And I think that until USL can check all those boxes, it's never going to be a threat to ML

Sure, but like MLS took 20 years to get there. It did. No, it did

You know, 20 years with intent to get there. USL has been kind of..

Around since like 05, 04. Yeah, but it's been left. Do you know what I mean

Like the league's just been like, clubs, you guys got it. Because it's not a franchise model

Like the MLS obviously has control over everything and it's been able to build, build, build, build, build

We talked about like last week, two weeks ago, you were like, they ain't building quickly enough

Which is probably true. But USL, and I've just gone back on my argument from then anyway, but USL is a different model

And now it's kind of trying to push the envelope a little bit. So it's kind of undergoing a similar change

Yeah. But it's like, why would you expect it to, man? Like, you can't just go to like the top level overnight

It's going to take some time. It'll absolutely take time. Okay. So promotion relegation implementing in MLS, just want to touch on that for another second

Is there a chance that there's a system of unification between MLS and USL in the future

Well, that's kind of everyone's favorite rumor, right? Because what's funny is that the US Soccer Board, if you will

had to vote to allow USL to have a first division. And Don Garber, the voting of that I don't believe has been made public

But who voted where? But Don Garber, who was the commissioner of MLS

was on that board and kind of allowed, at the very least, that vote to go through

I think there's this argument that all soccer is good soccer. But to answer your question, there's a school of thought

which I'm not sure I buy into, that MLS just kind of absorbs USL

and makes it a four-tier thing at some point, which does make sense because it has the financial clout too at this point

So, yeah, there's a chance. But I think for a long time they will still probably exist as two separate ends

Yeah, I feel like if anything, MLS, they'll probably just start doing their own thing

I mean, they have MLS Next Pro now, which is like their league below MLS for players to get minutes and have like their reserve league

But they call it like a professional league. But like if I feel like if MLS was going to take over USL, they probably would have done it by now

Like you could have got USL at its lowest point and built it up and now it would have been an established product

But for MLS, I feel like for them, they probably are just like, we don't really need to

We have our own thing going on. Yeah, I don't know if I could see it happening because we talk about the revenue streams and how getting relegated from USL champ to League One

wouldn't really matter because you don't have the broadcast rights deal. Talk about a league

that does have the broadcast rights deal and gets a lot of money from broadcast rights. Good luck convincing someone

who's invested in the Chicago Fire to accept 50% less money next year

because your team sucks. They're never going to vote for that. That's true. And you bring up MLS Next Pro

I had a conversation with someone there like, hey, where do you stand relative to USL

And they were like, we don't even think about it. And not even these guys suck

but it's like, dude, this is irrelevant. Okay, if you guys were in charge of instituting promotion relegation in the US

including MLS? Including MLS or just in MLS? Including MLS. How would you do that, Tom

All of the MLS teams stay in MLS, and then you give the USL, like

League One Championship, whatever, the chance to move up first for a few years

and then no one gets relegated for a few years, and then you can start going up and down

Does that make sense? Yeah. I think you allow teams to maybe get in from the ground up

and honestly, if you're Orange County SC, and you're getting absolutely spanked by LAFC

then maybe that's an indication of where you're at. But I think you give people the opportunity

to establish themselves and then say, okay, now this exists. Because honestly, if you're, I don't know

pick on them, Montreal, if you get relegated, you get relegated because you're not spending any money

No, definitely. I think that's the perfect way to do it. Aw, thanks, man

That's the perfect way to do it. It makes sense. How would you convince club owners to vote for that

Please. we're throwing up a prayer none of them are going to vote for it

that's the problem is it because it's like well I reckon maybe

Miami will maybe your top MLS clubs because they'll be like we fancy it

but like dude if you're an MLS club that does not invest

like Sporting KC why would they vote for that they wouldn't I mean I actually reckon

the New York Red Bulls will fancy it like mad because what they'll do then they'll buy a USL championship side

a USL league one side and it's like, welcome to Red Bull Network, baby

We're taking that. Red Bull Des Moines. Red Bull Des Moines. No, it's actually kind of..

Red Bull Chattanooga. No, they could really have a Red Bull everywhere. It's not. It definitely would be interesting to see promotion and relegation come to the U.S.

but I know at the end of the day for these MLS clubs with profitability being so important to them

and you see how much value Inter-Miami has now. They're competing... At $1.45 billion value

Bro, we're talking about competing with the global scale. your Manchester United's

your Chelsea's your Man City's so to go to Inter Miami and be like

hey like by the way like next season you guys could get potentially get relegated

if you guys don't play well and go down to USL I don't know if Luis Suarez

and Messi gonna be feeling that bro right yeah then again Messi's like

we could just like run it up on who do I wanna pick on El Paso Locomotive Locomotive

run it up on on Danny Rojas on Danny Rojas FC it would be funny

to see the Miami team bus pull up to a high school stadium in Vermont for sure

All right, guys, this has been a good conversation. I want you to sum it up again, 30 seconds

Will promotion and relegation work in USL, Tom? Yes, it will. It starts in 2028

You've kind of got to put faith in it and accept the very unfortunate reality

that I am not a fan of that some clubs might not survive. Rahim. In the USL, promotion and relegation will not work

In MLS, promotion and relegation will not work. In the MLS, they prioritize profitability

over promotion and relegation and opening the doors for other clubs. And in the USL, they just do not have the finances and the infrastructure to let promotion and relegation work

Yeah. Make sure to like, subscribe, and comment down below if you think that promotion and relegation will be successful in the USL