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OPM’s retirement backlog just hit an all‑time high — and it’s no coincidence that the federal workforce has seen one of its steepest declines in years. New OPM figures show how many employees left government service, how many used the DRP system, and how the shift to digital processing is changing retirement timelines. I walk through the big‑picture trends and show the key charts you need to see.
Full data and analysis available in the linked article.
Federal Employee Exodus: OPM Retirement Backlog Soars 21% in a Month
https://www.fedsmith.com/2026/03/05/federal-employee-exodus-opm-retirement-backlog-soars-21-in-a-month/
0:00 Introduction
1:04 Latest Retirement Figures
2:43 Federal Workforce is Shrinking
4:23 Digital vs. Paper Retirement Claims
6:04 Conclusion
Show More Show Less View Video Transcript
0:00
Hello everyone. I'm Ian Smith with
0:01
fedsmith.com and I wanted to bring you
0:04
an update today on the status of the OPM
0:06
retirement backlog. Now that's the total
0:10
inventory of retirement claims at the
0:12
office of personnel management or at
0:14
least pending within um the federal
0:18
government's retirement system. And the
0:21
news is quite significant today because
0:23
the backlog has hit an all-time high. As
0:27
far as I can tell, uh based on all the
0:29
data I've reviewed, the backlog has
0:32
never been this high before. And that's
0:34
reviewing data back to 2012.
0:37
Um I'm not going to get real deep into
0:39
the numbers. If you're a numbers person,
0:41
I've written an article on this topic
0:43
and I'll leave a link to that in the
0:44
description. It goes into a lot more
0:46
detail, but I did want to make you aware
0:49
of the situation and just touch on some
0:52
of the highle points about it because it
0:54
it is a a subject of interest and
0:57
especially it's going to be of interest
0:58
to you if you have recently retired from
1:01
federal service or you're planning to
1:03
retire soon. The Office of Personnel
1:05
Management just released their latest
1:07
monthly retirement figures. Um and these
1:09
data are as of the end of February. And
1:13
the total inventory of retirement claims
1:15
at the Office of Personnel Management
1:17
now are um 65,237
1:22
total claims. And the the size of the
1:26
total backlog grew 21% in February alone
1:30
over the previous month. The last time
1:33
it was even close was in January 2012.
1:37
it was at 61,18.
1:40
So that's why I say it's the highest it
1:42
has ever been. Again, as far as I know,
1:44
uh based on the data I have reviewed,
1:48
in February, OPM received 31,240
1:52
new retirement claims,
1:55
and the numbers of digital and paper
1:58
submissions coming in were nearly equal.
2:00
I'll talk talk about that a little bit
2:01
more in a moment. But since October of
2:05
2025, the start of the current fiscal
2:07
year, the OPM retirement backlog has
2:11
increased by 88.6%.
2:14
But you can see how much the total size
2:16
of the retirement claims inventory has
2:18
grown during that time. In October, it
2:21
was 34,587.
2:24
As I said, in February, it's now over
2:26
65,000.
2:28
But on the other hand, the processing,
2:30
OPM has really stayed on top of it. You
2:32
can see the percentage change and in the
2:35
number of claims that have been
2:36
processed in that time as well. The
2:38
retirement inventory backlog has grown.
2:40
OPM has really stepped up the processing
2:42
to its credit. So, why is this
2:44
happening? Well, as as I'm sure you're
2:46
aware, the federal workforce has shrunk
2:48
dramatically over the last year or so.
2:51
And so that ties in directly with why
2:54
the retirement claims inventory has
2:57
grown so much is because so many federal
2:59
employees are leaving federal service.
3:01
OPM has released some new figures on
3:03
that as well that that ties directly
3:05
into all of this. The size of the
3:07
federal workforce peaked in 2024
3:10
and this is looking back to 2015 at
3:13
2,313,216.
3:18
Now, as of where we are in 2026, that
3:21
number is down to 2,35,344.
3:26
The federal workforce going back to 2015
3:29
was steadily increasing pretty much
3:31
every year. Um, but then all of a
3:34
sudden, of course, you see in 2025, the
3:36
really sharp drop. And OPM released some
3:38
other figures on that as well.
3:41
Since January 20th, 2025, 264,228
3:47
federal employees have left the federal
3:49
workforce.
3:51
And 52% of those employees or 136,823
3:57
took the deferred resignation program
3:59
buyout offer that was made back um in
4:02
January 2025.
4:05
So, most of these federal employees have
4:08
left voluntarily.
4:09
And again, that ties into why the
4:12
backlog of retirement claims has been
4:14
growing so rapidly, especially starting
4:16
in August, September of last year,
4:19
really started to tick up and it's it's
4:21
culminated now in February. Now, as I
4:24
mentioned earlier, um digital retirement
4:27
processing that's been on the rise and
4:29
that is good news in all of this. As the
4:32
total inventory of retirement claims is
4:34
growing, so has been the number of
4:37
incoming claims that are now handled
4:39
digitally. For decades, OPM has been
4:43
doing it all manually using paper, but
4:46
that's changing fast. Uh the digital
4:49
claims are processed nearly three times
4:51
faster than paper claims. Digital claims
4:53
now make up roughly half of all incoming
4:55
retirement claims. Uh that's up from
4:58
about 30% back in October and that was
5:01
when OPM first started releasing data on
5:03
the numbers of the digital claims coming
5:06
in. And the average processing time for
5:08
digital versus paper, the digital claims
5:10
have been processed on average in 41
5:12
days. For paper claims, it's been taking
5:15
an average of 91 days. That's
5:17
cumulatively over that time period. And
5:19
these the digital claims processing,
5:21
that's part of OPM's new online
5:23
retirement application. They just rolled
5:25
that out last summer. in 2025 and again
5:29
it's been growing and they're in the
5:30
process of transitioning. So during the
5:33
transition period you still have a
5:34
number of paper claims coming in and
5:37
they have to be processed as well of
5:38
course but every month we see that more
5:41
and more of the retirement claims that
5:43
federal employees are submitting are
5:44
done digitally. In fact OPM when they
5:47
rolled this new system out they said at
5:49
the time all claims have to be digital
5:52
after a certain date. So over the long
5:54
term, I think this has the potential to
5:57
really speed this process up and bring
5:59
the backlog of the retirement claims
6:02
inventory down more quickly than it it
6:04
might have been otherwise. So that's a
6:06
quick overview of the situation with the
6:08
retirement claims inventory at the
6:10
Office of Personnel Management. I hope
6:12
you found this video helpful. Like I
6:14
said, it is very unusual. Um, we have a
6:17
record high backlog of of the retirement
6:21
claims inventory, but the digital claims
6:23
are on the rise. I think they it looks
6:26
like they're probably going to take over
6:27
the the manual paper claims processing
6:29
pretty quickly. And I, as I mentioned, I
6:32
have written an article on this topic.
6:34
It goes into a lot more detail. So,
6:35
please check that out. And also, be sure
6:37
to visit fedsmith.com for more news and
6:40
updates. Thank you for watching and have
6:42
a good day.
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