0:01
in a world of media frenzy where we
0:04
struggle to believe what we are told
0:06
let's take a momentary breath and hear
0:15
side it's present day April
0:19
2024 the conflict in Ukraine continues
0:23
and there has been no significant
0:25
movement on the front line for over two
0:29
years though recently it is the Russians
0:32
who are pressing forward so where do we
0:36
go from here what are Putin's next steps
0:42
zelinsky's to delve into this question
0:45
we have with us today political
0:49
volov how do you see this scenario
0:53
playing out there are a lot of factors
0:56
here with outside influence principally
0:58
from America probably being the most
1:01
significant as long as Western countries
1:03
continue to dabble in Ukraine's Affairs
1:05
there is no foreseeable solution to the
1:08
conflict when Western countries talk of
1:10
winning they are being unduly
1:13
optimistic Ukraine will never win
1:16
Ukraine has already lost look at the
1:22
now but yesterday 3rd of April the NATO
1:26
alliance started planning towards
1:28
long-term financial support for Ukraine
1:32
stretching at least 5 years into the
1:34
future together with continuing
1:38
224 military exercises with members from
1:42
32 countries how can Russia resist such
1:47
phenomenal support from here I can
1:50
imagine three possible outcomes all of
1:54
Ukraine the first one is that Western
1:57
countries continue to play chess in
1:58
Ukraine in iting a continued standoff
2:01
with Russia they continue supplying vast
2:04
sums of money and armaments to Ukraine
2:07
the response to that which is already
2:09
happening at PACE is that Russia will
2:11
continue equipping its factories for war
2:13
develop ever more destructive weaponry
2:15
and become stronger and even more
2:17
determined so what next for
2:21
Ukraine eventually Russia will advance
2:24
further into Ukraine and push first
2:26
Westward to cut off the sea access and
2:30
nor at some stage as more and more land
2:33
is taken from them the Ukraine
2:35
government will concede and sign a
2:37
treaty of neutrality which will be
2:38
underwritten by those Western countries
2:40
already involved it also seems unlikely
2:44
at that point that Russia will feel
2:46
inclined to negotiate any hand back of
2:48
land already taken during the conflict
2:51
the result is that Ukraine loses
2:52
massively but at least the conflict ends
2:55
and how important is it that Russia
2:59
blocks Ukraine access to the
3:02
Sea it's really critical to moving
3:06
Ukraine it will immediately halt the use
3:08
of sea drones which have been disrupting
3:10
the Russian Navy with considerable
3:13
success it will also Ukraine's
3:15
ability to trade grain with the rest of
3:17
the world via the usual sea routs
3:20
holding the area around Odessa will also
3:22
prevent sea incursions into Crimea by
3:25
boat additionally Russian forces will be
3:28
able to link up with the unrecognized
3:29
state of transtria which would give them
3:31
an incredible military Advantage as it
3:33
opens up a new flank giving them the
3:35
ability to attack Ukraine from the east
3:40
west and why would transtria be happy
3:44
with Russians occupying their
3:48
territory in a special Congress in
3:51
February politicians in transnistria
3:53
formerly asked Moscow to guard it from
3:55
increasing pressure from Moldova the
3:57
Kremlin later issued a statement which
3:59
said protecting its compatriots was a
4:01
priority Russian State media ra novosti
4:05
reported and what is your second
4:08
scenario the second possibility is that
4:10
the present battle lines do not change
4:12
greatly and both sides become more
4:14
defensive in that case Ukraine May seek
4:17
to step up its attacks on Russia itself
4:20
in an attempt to cause civil disruption
4:22
which may weaken Putin's
4:23
position however that will not work as
4:26
it will probably just strengthen the
4:28
resolve of Russia and be met with with
4:31
retaliation years could pass as this
4:35
solidifies the result is that Ukraine
4:37
again loses massively and your third
4:42
option the third possibility and it is
4:45
highly improbable is that zelinsky's
4:47
dream comes true and by some fluke of
4:49
events and Against All Odds Ukraine
4:51
miraculously reclaims all of its
4:54
territory do you imagine Russia would
4:56
simply accept that outcome an attempt to
5:00
relations at the very least Ukraine
5:02
could look forward to Untold years of
5:04
Relentless bombardment across its border
5:07
Ukraine would never be able to sit on
5:09
its Laurels and recover
5:11
normality so unfortunately again the
5:14
result is that Ukraine loses
5:17
massively radin thank you very much and
5:22
that's all from us today
