A war without war: China’s gray zone activity

The People's Republic of China really doesn't want the United States or its influence in

the Indo-Pacific anymore. In fact, the PRC wants to make sure it's the dominant force in the region, regardless

of what that means for peace, stability, or free and open maritime trade

The PRC is using what are known as gray zone tactics to help with that goal

So what the heck does that mean, and can it be stopped? Okay, in broad terms, gray zone tactics are things a country might do to assert power and influence

but the actions stop just shy of actual armed conflict. Researchers from the Rand Corporation found China used almost 80 different types of gray zone tactics

against its neighbors in the last decade. What are some examples? Well, there is everything from cyber attacks and propaganda campaigns

like those launched on social media sites to try and influence public opinion and elections in Taiwan

The PRC also coordinates efforts to overfish certain parts of the ocean as a way to hurt a nation economically and disrupt its food supply like in the waters around Taiwan or near the Philippines

China's boats are bigger, they catch more fish, and leave depleted waters behind

The PRC is also building new islands in contested waters and putting airfields on them

It's even using the Chinese Coast Guard and a fleet of maritime militia

to stop Filipino vessels from performing routine patrols and resupply missions in the Philippines

own territorial waters. But after Nancy Pelosi went to Taiwan in 2022, China really ramped up

its gray zone game, which included encircling the self-governing island in symbolic blockades

China sees Taiwan as its own, and China's president says he's committed to taking the island

by force, if necessary. Which brings us to our next question. Why is China using these tactics

If China is constantly in an area it's not supposed to be, but not necessarily causing

too much of a ruckus, the PRC can wear down the resolve and resources of its neighbors

which is basically what we saw with Nauru Kiribati and the Solomon Islands all recently signing security agreements with Beijing The dual facilities China is building like ports and airfields can be used for both commercial

or military activity, so in a way, China is pre-positioning resources and equipment

And by using state-owned paramilitary forces like the Chinese Coast Guard or Maritime Militia to

conduct gray zone operations, the PRC is blurring the line between what can be considered civilian

or military activity. Not to mention, Chinese law means just about every craft or vessel on the water

can be used by the government for military activities. In the case of Taiwan, China is

trying to normalize the near-constant presence of Chinese ships and planes around the island

And those planes and boats often cross into Taiwan's territory, sometimes performing provocative maneuvers

That way, when and if the order to attack Taiwan comes, the PRC can utilize the element of surprise

So at this point, you might be asking yourself, what's being done to stop China and its operations in the gray zone

Well the Center for Strategic and International Studies has some recommendations First it says deterrence needs to be reestablished and that starts with data

The U.S. can work with partners and allies in the region to better detect gray zone activities

and identify the parties responsible for those actions. Once the intelligence community picks up on what are called the behavioral signatures left behind by gray zone actors

it can release that information publicly, essentially shining a light for the world to see the depths of the gray zone

Finally, CSIS says the United States and its allies need to show their resolve by responding swiftly to gray zone operations

That could mean creating new laws and using a joint maritime task force to enforce those laws

up to and including interdicting vessels identified as gray zone actors. The CSIS says keeping responses in the realm of law enforcement and not employing military forces

may also keep the current situation from spiraling into a full-on kinetic conflict

or at least prevent it a little while longer. For more reporting like this

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