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I'm joined tonight exclusively by Lord George Robertson, himself of course, a former Defence Secretary and former Secretary-General of NATO
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George, it's great to have you in the show. Straightforward question, are we ready to fight a war today
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No, we're probably not. We're hollowed out forces, but then we're not facing an enemy today in conventional terms
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We're facing an enemy that is working against us all the time
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Cyber attacks, assassinations, election interference, disinformation campaigns. You know, our enemies are at our door
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They're already there. And when you've got a question about welfare or warfare, you know, what happens if a cyber attack stops our hospitals from working
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What if it turns our power off? What happens if it stops the cars, the police cars in the street
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You know, these things are real and alive. And some cases are actually happening today
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So today it's not really a choice between guns or butter. Because of the situation we're in, we do need both
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And this is a review that you have written which covers 10 years. But everything that I hear and everything that you've been saying suggests this is a very urgent question as well
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There is an urgency about the way in which the Russians especially, and others as well, are ganging up on us and using different means
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Now it might well be that what we're seeing in Ukraine today could be the nature of war in the future
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Ukraine might actually be yesterday's war. Tomorrow's war could be much nastier, much crueler, much more brutal
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And when you see, as you said in your opening introduction, what happens when an aggressor like the Russians take over a country
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it's a pretty miserable, brutal existence that comes from there. So it'll take some time for our adversaries to build up capabilities
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But in the meantime, we've got to build up our capabilities and deal also with the national resilience
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You have the homeland defence that we've got to build up in order to deal with the grey zone attacks that we're already experiencing
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I want to come on to the homeland defence specifically, but when you took on this job many months ago
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you did it in the context of a 2.5% commitment on defence
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And, you know, we look around us just now, we've got General Dannett, we've got Paul Johnson of the IFS, many, many more
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saying that's not going to be enough. we're going to have to raise more money. Do you think we're going to have to raise more money
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than we are at the moment for defence? We'll only be able to raise it if the people of this country want the insurance policy
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that is represented by defence. That's what it is. You're quite right to say a lot of these weapons
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we hope, will never be used. But they're there as a determinant. You know, the guys with the machine guns
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standing outside Downing Street could cause mayhem if they were to use them
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But they are there in order to stop anybody thinking about attacking Downing Street
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And that is exactly what we need to do in terms of the defence of this country
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A deterrent is what is needed. And that's what we're saying. We've got to build up war-fighting abilities now
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that we never had in the past, never needed in the last 50 years
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We've got to build that up in order that an adversary, a potential adversary, means that it's too expensive to attack us
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Let's come on to some of the specifics that this discusses, because without chilling anybody listening too much
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the report describes how an attack upon this country by another state might start and might develop
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And in that, you talk about missile attacks on our critical infrastructure
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which leads me to ask, can you explain to people listening whether we are going to get more effective missile defences for the homeland
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Well, there are limited defences at the moment, but they couldn't sustain a major attack on us
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but that is not likely at this precise moment but we're starting to make the investment
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about an integrated air and missile defence for this country so there's some seed corn investment going to be made
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but by and large it's going to have to be done on a NATO level and other countries are themselves investing
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and thinking about investing about it but it's a big project, an expensive project
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But we're starting on it. So, I mean, Israel has its Iron Dome
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Donald Trump is talking about a Golden Dome or something over the United States. We would have some kind of all Western European dome or system, would we, that we would be part of
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Some of the countries have already got Patriot missile systems. So there are limited engagements there
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But that's something that NATO is thinking about very closely at the moment
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So in the review, we make an initial investment in this area
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And it not very large is it It about a billion pounds for the whole thing Yeah but it a start on what would be ultimately a very very expensive system But it one of those things that if in the future people want to be properly defended
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the people of this country want, you know, the insurance policy that defence represents
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then, you know, they'll need to vote and articulate a view that says we want to be safer than we are
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You see, this brings me back a little bit to the money here, because the more I listen to this, the more I wonder whether this is the beginning of a conversation
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which is going to lead to either more borrowing. Lord Hayne, Peter Hayne, former colleague, has suggested war bonds or defence bonds
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of a kind of sort of the Second World War as a way of raising more money for defence
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or more taxation. Paul Johnson, I mentioned him earlier, has been talking about a pretty chunky extra amount of tax to pay for this
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Are we beginning a conversation which could lead, through an election, to either more tax or more borrowing on defence
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Well, I don't know, because I'm not the Chancellor of the Exchequer. I'm not even a minister. All we've done was asked as a former Secretary General of Nader
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and a former Defence Secretary to look at defence in this country
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and to listen to every conceivable opinion about it. So it's boiled down to these pages as well
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But at the end of the day, if the people of this country want an insurance policy
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you want to be safe, want to make sure that their children in the future are going to be safe
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then tough decisions will have to be made. The Prime Minister has already made a very, very tough decision
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for a Labour Prime Minister, which is to say we're going to cut the aid budget
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in order to give the Ministry of Defence more money. That took a lot of toughness
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At the NATO summit, a lot of countries around the table are going to be saying
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if we're going to get to 2% or 3% or the reputed 3.5%
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then a lot of social programmes may well have to go. But if we're going to be safe and we're not going to have the lights turned off
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then people will have to pay. Let's return to some of the specifics
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because there has been much talk about up to a dozen nuclear-powered attack submarines
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What are they there to attack? What are they there to defend? We depend in this country on undersea cables and undersea pipelines
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over 70% of the data that we use in this country comes from undersea cables
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But over 70% of our gas supplies on which we depend for heating
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comes from one pipeline from Norway. So submarines are actually the protection for the future
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And therefore, you know, submarine warfare is a big, big issue. That's why the Russians and others and the Chinese are investing hugely in that
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and we've got to keep up with them in order to make sure that we're protected
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We have talked about our undersea cable vulnerabilities on this programme, I think, before
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I've certainly talked about it with various people, including General Petraeus. Do you think this review will at least properly protect us in a way that we haven't been before
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We'll go towards the protection that is going to be necessary. You know, that's why we're, you know, there's a lot of serious recommendations in here
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The government have accepted all 62 recommendations in this report. You know, the Prime Minister has himself personally accepted the report in its entirety
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It's very detailed and it's got a lot of substance to it
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You know, a lot of the stuff will bear a lot of reading in order to do it
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But we're making a start. It's a 10-year program. It's a strategic defence review, not, you know, a review for the moment and for next year
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It's after that and it's for your children and your grandchildren that we're thinking about when we wrote this
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The Prime Minister has come under quite a lot of attack today for being, as it were, all mouth and no trousers
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not really putting the amount of money in that's going to be needed to do what he says is needed
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Do you think that he himself has a personal commitment to this that will, in the end, will look back and say, actually, they did put in the money
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I was in the shipbuilding hall today in government and I heard him speak with commitment and indeed with passion about the need to protect this country, being the first responsibility of government
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So there's absolutely no doubt in my mind. He said he was 100% confident that we would reach the 3%
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The Defence Secretary has just told the House of Commons that the money will be found in order to implement the Strategic Defence Review
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And I think the public listens to that. Remember, this is a UK defence review
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I asked a former Conservative Defence Minister one of the best to be part of my team doing this Sir Jeremy Quinn has been part of our team all along So this is not a Labour review It not designed by that
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The three reviewers, you know, we're not partisan. It's for the country
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We are unusual in this country in only having one delivery system for our nuclear deterrence
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Is that good enough? Well, it's fundamental. And I can tell you, I've been in the criminal a number of times
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with President Putin. And I know what moves the dial inside the Kremlin. And Britain's independent strategic nuclear deterrent is there
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Now, you know, in the report we say, let's look at what NATO does
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The dual-capable aircraft who are carrying individual bombs, we did away with them
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In fact, I did away with them in 1998. You regret it
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The French have them. No, I don't regret doing that at all. The world has changed since I did that
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and I did that review. So do you think it's possible, I know the decision has not yet been taken
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but do you think it's possible going forward that we will have American F-35s
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carrying nuclear weapons? Well, I don't know, because that's just one of the issues
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that says we should debate and discuss it and do it with our NATO colleagues
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The French are now talking about their independent deterrent and they've got free fall bombs as well
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being committed to the European Union. So there's a big debate going on about nuclear forces
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We'll see where that leads to. Quite a lot of people listening to this, George, will think, you know what, they all have a point
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This is a really serious moment in the national story, and I'd like to do my bit
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Now, for younger people, for fitter people, just explain a little bit about this idea of, as it were, a gap year military service
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Well, we want to give young people a sense of what the military is about
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So there's a whole series of recommendations in here, including the gap year
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for people who might want to go in and try what it's like, and might be entranced by it, might be attracted to it
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when they're only watching external propaganda or external publicity. So, you know, we brought in innovative things
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30% increase in cadets. Absolutely. You know, I was an army cadet, and I hated every single minute I was in it
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So was I, and so did I. Well, I don't, but when I was Defence Secretary, I remembered my memory of that
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And we reformed it and we changed it. It's a very, very different organisation now in each of the three services
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And it's a wonderful way of young people learning how the defence of their country involves them as well
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And one of the key lessons of this review is going to be that we all have a responsibility
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We can't contract out the defence of the country to people who are in uniform
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We've all got a responsibility. It's a whole of country endeavour, and we need to involve people
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And the cadets is one way of getting young people to recognise what they can do to help their country
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And another way might be that it's been described as a kind of updated dad's army
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but some kind of homeland defence force to protect military critical infrastructure around the country
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During the COVID pandemic, if you remember, there was a call for people to help the NHS
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Thousands of people volunteered, said that they would become part of this sort of paramedical army that was there
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They were never used. But I think that there is a genuine feeling in the community
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that the defence of the nation is something that is to be shared
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So we'll look at how best we can enlist people in order to be able to sort of monitor, watch what our critical national infrastructure is
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You know, a few weeks ago, Spain and Portugal were brought to a standstill by a power gun
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There was no power in two modern European countries and everything was brought to a standstill
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You know, a few weeks ago, Heathrow Airport was stopped by one explosion in one transmitter
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You know, so these things are happening today. And our adversaries are learning how vulnerable our infrastructure actually is
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And a cyber attack that cut off power to the National Health Service would drive it home to people brutally about what the threats are to the country today
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And brutally, we don't have enough full-time soldiers to protect every piece of infrastructure all the time
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So is your idea that as it were part soldiers or territorial army people or whatever will be there in greater numbers to do that job Well we want to enlist people We have a debate I hope that there going to be a national conversation anyway The Prime Minister has made it clear and we propose it in this document a national conversation about defence and security
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How can everybody be involved? And as part of that conversation, then we'll look at how vulnerable our electricity supplies are
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our telecoms, our water supplies, our gas supplies, our data headquarters are
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If you cut off the air conditioning, the air conditioning in some of the big data centres, the clouds, you know, everything melts
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So, you know, I hope the Kremlin is not listening too carefully to our conversation here
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I'm not telling the Kremlin anything. They don't already know. And that's the worry. They know an awful lot about our vulnerabilities
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And what we've got to do now is make sure that they're protected. Trying to take the bigger picture
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You know, we've had Putin and the Ukraine war. We've had Donald Trump and what he has said about NATO
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Do you think this is a hinge moment in the national story, as it were
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a moment when we change our attitude to our own defence once and for all
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I think we do. I think we're at a moment in time where people begin to realise what the threat is
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both from, you know, what they call the sub-threshold, the grey zone, the cyber attacks
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You know, and also what's happened to Ukraine, where a massive neighbour decides that it will crush and brutally subordinate a neighbouring nation state
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So that's the point where I think people have got to recognise. If you don't have an insurance policy for your home, you're left vulnerable
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If you don't have an insurance policy for your country, then what will happen is what happened in Ukraine
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You know, the citizens, the ordinary people in Butsha and in Mariupol used to walk the streets, just like I did today coming from Parliament across here to Melbourne, in peace and security
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And the next day they weren't. The next day the Russians had invaded and they were enslaved, their children taken away to another country, tortured, brutalised in that country
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So it can happen so quickly. And I think that at the moment in time, we're given Ukraine, given the pulled up the way in which our adversaries are working together
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We've finally recognized that there needs to be a big insurance policy for the country and it's worth paying for
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Finally, one of the things that the Ukrainians managed to do is to achieve a drone industry almost from scratch
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I mean, they've been much more successful, frankly, than we have been at building drones at scale and innovatively
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And they've had the extraordinary attack on Russia yesterday overnight. In the past, we've had defence reviews
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And really what we have done is we have gone around the world and bought off the shelf from other people the kit that we needed
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This time around, are we going to build them here? I hope we do
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And we make proposals here, you know, for radically changing the procurement way in which we do things
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If it takes too cumbersome, too slow, too difficult for small companies to get involved, they'll find if they do this, that we've got a whole new series of organisations that have been set up in order to capture the innovation, to move quickly, you know, in peacetime, but at wartime rates
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And that's the way in which you can capture the innovation. So what the Ukrainians are doing today is moving at pace and inventing things very, very quickly
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And what we saw the other day in that remarkable assault on the Russian strategic bombers
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you know, is an indication of how quickly you're going to move. So people in the future, the Army, the Navy, the Air Force of the future
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is going to have to be one step ahead. And that's what this report is all about
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Final question, George. You have been living this stuff now very intensively for many months
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Most of us don't even like to think about it. When you've been dreaming about it, do you wake up scared or do you wake up confident
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I worry. I'm an optimist that worries. I think that was what Madeleine Albright once said
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I think we can do better. I think if we go down this route, you know, having looked at all of the facts and the figures
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read all the 8,000 submissions that we got talked to people, listened to people
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scrubbed it all together and boiled it down to that if we do these things
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then we'll be a safe nation if we don't do it, I think we're vulnerable
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so it is a hinge moment you've got to make a decision the country's got to make a decision
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and this is the time to make it George Robertson, Lord Robertson
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thank you very very much indeed for coming in