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Vice President of the Centre for China & Globalisation and former Translator to Deng Xiaoping Victor Gao joins Matt Frei to discuss the ‘9.99/10’ meeting just concluded between Trump and Xi. During the interview, Gao describes Taiwan as China’s ‘red line of the red line.’ arguing that Donald Trump is a ‘transactional president’ while Joe Biden was a ‘Cold War’ president. Gao also mentions the Thucydides Trap, a theory often applied to tensions between the United States (established power) and China (rising power), suggesting that when a dominant power feels threatened by a fast-growing rival, competition can escalate into conflict, even if neither side actually wants war. Listen to the full show on the all-new LBC App: https://app.af.lbc.co.uk/btnc/thenewlbcapp #mattfrei #victorgao #china #uspolitics #usa #trump #donaldtrump #xijinping #trumpximeeting #taiwan #chinataiwan #worldnews #news #debate #LBC LBC is the home of live debate around news and current affairs in the UK. Join in the conversation and listen at https://www.lbc.co.uk/ Sign up to LBC’s weekly newsletter here: https://l-bc.co/signup
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0:00
How would you rate the summit between Xi and Trump
0:05
9.99 out of 10. Right. For Xi or for Trump or both
0:12
For both China and the United States. What was the missing 0.1% then
0:19
Well, first of all, in this world, there is nothing imperfect. Nothing is perfection
0:27
So if you say it's a perfect meeting, I think I'll be irresponsible
0:32
9.99, in my judgment, is the highest rating I can come up with
0:37
All right. Well, let's dig into that a little bit. What did China get out of that summit? Well, lots of things
0:42
First of all, President Trump, through this very important state visit, restored the time-tested tradition of each sitting president of the United States
0:52
ever since President Reagan making a state visit to China. And that tradition was broken by former President Biden
1:01
When he was president of the United States for four years, he didn't make a state visit to China
1:07
I would say President Biden was a Cold War president. His presidency was a Cold War presidency
1:13
And President Biden probably really didn't care about the fundamental interests of the American people
1:19
In that sense, Trump's presidential visit to China is extremely important in restoring that time-tested tradition
1:30
Now, I hope we are back on track. Each sitting president going forward in the coming years, coming decades, would pay a state visit to China
1:39
And the Chinese president will reciprocate to visit the United States. This is number one
1:45
Number two, you are absolutely right. President Xi Jinping and President Trump exchanged in great detail the positions of each other regarding Taiwan
1:58
I think this is a very important occasion for the Chinese president to explain to President Trump
2:06
everything that's about this red line of the red line of the red line
2:11
Why Taiwan is so important? Now, whether he convinced President Trump or not, that's another issue
2:17
at least the president trump had a rare opportunity of listening in person to the
2:23
explanation of this very important question as far as china is concerned right i truly believe
2:29
this will have a major impact on what president trump will do in the future in the coming three years for example whenever this taiwan issue pops up right now it it often said of Donald Trump that he listens to the last person in the room and that the opinion that he takes with him to the podium The last person in the room there was
2:49
Xi Jinping, who, as you rightly said, must have bent President Trump's ear about Taiwan
2:54
And President Trump, when he gave an interview to Fox News on Air Force One on the way back home to
2:58
Washington, said that he's still thinking about, you know, the weapons program that he has put in
3:03
the long grass and he wasn't committing to any change of wording about you know whether they
3:07
oppose or do not support taiwanese independence it is possible is it not that despite these positive
3:13
vibes as you interpret them you would have actually not gained very much at all from
3:17
donald trump at the end of the day because when he's going to go home to washington he'll have republicans bending his ear saying do not bow to president xi
3:25
philosophically speaking i agree with your assessment president trump is known to be
3:32
a transactional president is very much chasing after one deal after another and is not well known
3:38
for being very philosophical or coming up with a framework within which to solve burning issues
3:45
in the world of today having said that i think it is absolutely important for china for the
3:51
Chinese president to make our case to President Trump so that he will have knowledge at first
3:57
about what we really care about. Now, whenever the Taiwan issue pops up on his presidential
4:06
radar screen, I hope President Trump will think about what he learned from President Xi Jinping
4:11
and make a decision which I hope will be in the fundamental interest of the American people
4:18
Why do I say that? Because I don't think the American people and the Chinese people are enemies with each other
4:24
We do not want to have war against each other. We do not want to see any situation flaring up involving Taiwan
4:31
which may drag both China and the United States into a war against each other
4:37
We're being very diplomatic here. Let's be really, really clear, Victor. So when Trump says on Air Force One to Sean Hannity of Fox News that he's not going to fly 9000 miles
4:46
or his people will fly 9,000 miles to pick a fight with China, i.e. to Taiwan, on the other side of the world
4:52
Do you interpret that as a signal from Donald Trump that he would not defend Taiwan should China take military action against it
5:02
I think so. But I care about another thing, which is way above President Trump and what he said
5:10
That is ever since 1971 especially ever since 1972 when former President Nixon made the first presidential state visit to China and ever since 1979 when China relations were normalized the official position of the United States of America is one and only one
5:29
They recognize there is only one China, and Taiwan is part of China
5:33
and the People's Republic of China represents the totality of the people
5:37
on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. This is not only the official position of the United States
5:42
It's also the official position of Great Britain, of all the national members
5:46
But Victor, within that official position, there's been plenty of room for constructive or destructive ambiguity, whatever you like to call it
5:52
So let me ask you this question. If at the end of all this, despite what he told Fox News on the plane
5:58
President Trump does decide to go ahead, not just with the 11 billion arms program that has been parked
6:04
but with a 14 billion arm, which would be the biggest so far from the US towards Taiwan
6:10
does that signal a future conflict is that a red rag to your bull well china is of course opposed
6:19
to any increase in the arms sale of the united states to taiwan that's of course so what would
6:24
you do about it if it came out however allow me to explain one point china has any weapon the
6:32
united states possesses therefore if the united states indulges in the fantasy that they can
6:38
sell weapons to Taiwan to enable Taiwan to defeat China's unification drive. It's an
6:46
engagement in fantasy. There is nothing in the possession of the United States in terms of
6:52
military weapons that China does not have. China may have more superior weapons. So my point is
6:59
very philosophical. The weapons sold by the United States in Taiwan will eventually end up in a
7:04
military museum in China or on the Taiwan island. That's the best of their destination
7:11
rather than to be used by the Taiwan separatists to defeat China's national unification drive. Right
7:19
I love the fact that you describe it as philosophical. Right. You say it's philosophical
7:24
It sounds something other than philosophical to me. Let me ask you this then, Victor
7:30
I mean, broadly speaking, do you see that China is in the ascendancy
7:34
and America is in decline? I do not see this in this way
7:39
I think both China and the United States are great powers and they will remain great power for decades
7:45
if not for centuries to come. I completely rebuke the so-called two-citizens trap
7:51
if it is applied to China and the United States. I went to the point of declaring Your president brought it up Yes indeed But allow me one minute I think that you see this trap or the destined for war scenario between China and the United States is a fallacy
8:07
Why? Because that famous professor, Graham Ellison out of Harvard, yzed the many important cases of war
8:17
But allow me to emphasize, all the cases of war, Professor Graham Ellison yzed, were conventional war cases
8:24
And if anyone, including the great professor, tries to apply the two cities trap to China and the United States, which are two of the most important nuclear powers, nothing short of a fallacy will happen
8:38
So my proposal is better. I think between China and the United States, the inevitability of peace is the real highway
8:48
Don't listen to the professor when he talks about the two cities trap
8:52
if that theory will be applied to China and the United States
8:57
the two of the greatest nuclear powers in the world. We need to promote the inevitability of peace
9:04
Right, let's finally and very briefly leave ancient Greece and go to modern Taiwan
9:09
Whatever Xi and Trump discussed, whatever they may decide, whether America supports, you know, the weapons program for Taiwan or not
9:16
at the end of the day, Victor, the majority of the people
9:21
who live on the island of Taiwan do not want to be ruled by your lot
9:27
Shouldn't that be respected? You remind me of President Abraham Lincoln. At the time of the secession
9:35
the majority, if not the totality, of the people in the confederation
9:38
did not want to have anything to do with the federation. They want to break away
9:43
They want to live their own life. They want to own their own slaves
9:47
What did President Lincoln say? President said, no way, bring them back into the Union
9:53
And if they want to really become independent, defeat them in war
10:00
That's the beginning of the civil war launched by President Lincoln against the Confederation
10:05
Except the Taiwanese don't have any slaves. That's the one difference, isn't it
10:09
Well, China will never allow Taiwan to be independent and become a sovereign country
10:14
Why shouldn't the Americans and people in the world support China's drive for reunification, regardless of what the people in Taiwan will think about
10:23
Victor, we said that we've had this argument before many times, but we're going to leave it there
10:29
We know your point of view and we respect it. And I always love it when you come on the program
10:34
So I thank you very much indeed. And when you compare me to Abraham Lincoln, while you've secured your next slot on my show here on LBC
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