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There are 6 Signs Cruising Not Starting Up When Cruise Lines Saying They Are. Every now and then, the cruise lines publish new dates and cruise cancellations, which create excitement for cruise lovers wanting to know when cruising will start up again post lockdown and shutdown. However, I explore the signs and actions that I believe show that the dates the cruise lines publish show that cruising is not likely to start up on even these delayed dates. Although, some will see this as pessimistic, the actions the cruise lines are actually taking (often out of the glare of publicity) suggest they believe cruising will take longer before starting up as we knew it.
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Other Videos in my Cruise Shutdown Series:
1: What should you do with bookings: https://youtu.be/Bp4xA21bsY4
2: Cancellations and refunds: https://youtu.be/BEadOjDRwAA
3: Cruise Lines Finances and refunds: https://youtu.be/E5Uco5H3CYU
4: When Cruising Will Really Start Up: https://youtu.be/3A4ZxXa-l8o
5: How cruising will change: : https://youtu.be/bamjq0pT8FU
6: Will people cruise again: https://youtu.be/mF_fKOmAmxg
7: Best Cruises For Return To Cruising: https://youtu.be/srqQ4upSv4k
8: Biggest Hurdles Facing Cruise Lines: https://youtu.be/45ndCQfyBUI
9: Future Cruise Credits or Cash Refunds: https://youtu.be/ZSMuslOVTYk
10: Best Way For Booking A Cruise Now https://youtu.be/UCiEhwAHxog
11: Signs Cruising Not Starting up Soon: https://youtu.be/VjGS0AQ8Al4
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0:00
you're about to discover six signs that
0:03
strongly suggests that cruising is not
0:06
starting up anytime soon I'm Gary
0:10
Bembridge this is another of my cruising
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tips for travelers I want to talk about
0:13
six signs that I've seen that I think
0:15
suggest really strongly that cruising is
0:18
not going to be starting up soon despite
0:20
what you're seeing in terms of when
0:22
cruise lines the same they're going to
0:23
be starting up again and in fact even
0:25
when you can be booking cruises not that
0:27
far out I believe very strongly there
0:29
are a couple of things that show that
0:30
this is just not going to happen despite
0:33
other people hoping that it will do at
0:36
the moment cruise lines are canceling
0:37
roughly month by month and that's really
0:40
not to do with when they think cruising
0:42
can start again but to do with managing
0:44
the whole process of cancellations and
0:46
refunds
0:47
every time they cancel there's an
0:48
enormous impact bear in mind is roughly
0:51
about 600,000 people normally on a
0:54
cruise every single week so every time
0:55
they cancel a couple of weeks that's an
0:58
enormous amount of money that's likely
0:59
to leave the corporation's it's also a
1:02
huge complex task so that's really why
1:04
they're doing it so let's take a look at
1:06
the six signs that I believe show really
1:09
strongly that cruising is not going to
1:11
be starting up for quite some time
1:12
starting with this one first of all the
1:16
cruise line executives are actually
1:18
saying as much they're basically saying
1:20
that cruising is not starting up soon in
1:23
all the interviews with the CEOs and the
1:25
chairman's of the cruise lines what
1:27
they're saying very clearly is they have
1:29
no idea when cruising is going to be
1:31
starting up again they have no idea when
1:33
it's going to be allowed they don't know
1:34
how many ships are gonna be involved
1:36
they don't know what regions are gonna
1:37
be involved they don't know what ports
1:38
are gonna be open they don't know what
1:40
the protocols are they just don't know
1:42
and there's a couple of key indicators
1:44
very specifically that I want to talk
1:46
about so if you actually look online
1:48
richard fain is the chairman and CEO of
1:51
royal caribbean he has a youtube channel
1:53
which is created which is called loyal
1:55
to you always where he posts updates and
1:57
in those updates he does talk about just
2:00
not really knowing how soon and when
2:02
quizzing will start up again so that's
2:04
of course different to a date that gets
2:06
published as they cancel cruises
2:07
secondly the time of recording there was
2:09
an interview with the CEO of the
2:11
Carnival Corporation so they
2:13
after carnival Cunard Princess Holland
2:17
America Seaborn Aida they basically have
2:21
50% market share of everybody who goes
2:23
cruising is on a carnival brand in the
2:25
recent interview Arnold Donald the CEO
2:28
basically said that he has no idea
2:30
increasing will start up again and a lot
2:32
of that's going to depend on when
2:33
they're allowed to start up again and
2:35
also when people I want to start
2:37
cruising again the CEO of Norwegian
2:39
Cruise Line Frank Del Rio as a Norwegian
2:41
they look after Norwegian Oceania region
2:44
seven seas again he in a recent
2:47
statement which was around when they had
2:49
to post an update on what's happening
2:51
with them financially he again said
2:53
there's a complete lack of clarity
2:55
around when crusing will be ready and
2:57
able and willing to start again even
3:00
closer to home to where I am at the
3:01
moment in the UK the managing director
3:03
of Fred Olsen cruises Peter dear he
3:05
again said we have no idea when the
3:07
virus is going to be in a situation when
3:09
the governments are going to allow us to
3:10
cruise again and so what they're
3:12
actually doing is they're don't even
3:13
announce changes they're just constantly
3:15
on a rolling basis out canceling cruises
3:18
30 days ahead so it's very clear that
3:20
the heads of the big cruising
3:22
corporations are saying they do not know
3:25
when cruising is going to start again so
3:27
those dates you see online for
3:28
resumption of service is literally a
3:31
placeholder it's helping them manage
3:34
expectations and certainly more
3:35
important managing the whole process of
3:36
cancellations following on for that the
3:39
second key sign is actually what
3:41
physically the cruise lines are doing
3:43
another lot of this stuff gets a large
3:45
amount of publicity but there's three
3:47
critical things that the cruise lines
3:48
are doing that really indicate that
3:50
they're not planning to be cruising soon
3:51
first of all all of the big corporations
3:54
are raising an enormous amount of money
3:56
now that's all coming from the private
3:59
sector because governments are not
4:01
providing in bailout money to Cruise
4:03
Lines because of the fact that they are
4:05
registered as flags of convenience in
4:07
kind of tax efficient tax haven centers
4:10
depending on what your views of those
4:11
are so they're not getting government
4:14
help they're going out and raising an
4:15
enormous amounts of money so if you look
4:16
at recent filings which they have to do
4:19
to the stock exchange in the US where
4:21
most of these corporations have are
4:22
listed you'll find that they're raising
4:24
billion
4:25
billions of dollars to cover them for an
4:28
extended shutdown and depending on which
4:31
reports you'll see and some of the
4:32
analyst reports I've seen they're
4:34
talking about Cruise Lines having made
4:36
sure they can cover at least into next
4:39
year having no revenue so they've
4:41
structuring financially on the basis
4:43
they're gonna have no revenue so that's
4:45
one key indicator but probably even more
4:47
importantly is secondly they are
4:49
starting to move many of their ships
4:51
into what's known as a cold lay up now
4:54
cold lay up is when they basically turn
4:58
down a ship so they send all
5:00
non-essential crew home they've actually
5:01
keep maintenance crew engineering crew a
5:03
lot of the machineries shut down and
5:05
they're basically basically ticking over
5:07
at a really low level once you go into
5:09
cold lay up that takes a long time
5:12
there's a good couple of weeks to think
5:13
if the ships back and ready just from a
5:16
engineering point of view from a
5:18
maintenance point of view and then of
5:19
course actually from a crew point of
5:22
view that leads me on to the third thing
5:23
they're doing is all of the Cruise Lines
5:26
are doing in a massive massive move of
5:30
sending all of their crew home now
5:33
because of the restrictions in the US
5:34
when most these ships were is they can't
5:37
take them off the ship and fly them home
5:39
so all of the major cruise lines are
5:41
moving crew 'enter ships and sailing
5:43
them home so ships are heading towards
5:45
Europe they're heading towards Asia and
5:47
they're taking crew home so they're
5:50
basically sending crew home and there's
5:51
no plans to bring that crew back so if
5:54
there are plans to start selling in a
5:55
couple of weeks time or even a month's
5:57
time they would not be basically
5:59
stripping the ships of the ability to
6:01
enter service quickly and they certainly
6:03
would be keeping the crew onboard so
6:06
this very key things in place showing
6:09
that cruising is not able to start or
6:11
not plan to start quickly and easily
6:13
the third key sign is that there are no
6:16
key agreements yet on what the protocols
6:19
are going to be for who can go onboard
6:21
what the screening protocols are going
6:23
to be what the safety protocol is going
6:24
to be what the actual procedures are
6:26
going to be onboard so the whole
6:28
structure and processes and facilities
6:31
and the way that the onboard experience
6:32
is going to work has not been agreed and
6:34
creasing will not be allowed to start
6:35
until that's been agreed now in the US
6:38
which is really driving a
6:39
this the CDC the Center for Disease
6:41
Control has basically set down a remit
6:44
to the cruising industry where they're
6:45
talking about screening testing change
6:48
of the medical facilities to become much
6:50
more hospital like procedures in terms
6:53
of if outbreaks happen and having a
6:55
hospital area a quarantine area which
6:58
could be separate ships there's lots and
7:00
lots of discussions around medical
7:02
certificates for vulnerable and 70-plus
7:05
passengers none of that has been agreed
7:07
there's been lots of discussions around
7:08
what that could look like but has not
7:10
been agreed until those procedures are
7:12
agreed and signed off the no sell orders
7:14
are not going to be lifted and that
7:16
hasn't been agreed and if you look at
7:17
the different submissions and what the
7:19
different lines are saying they're all
7:20
saying slightly different things now of
7:22
course behind the scenes I'm sure
7:23
through clear the cruise line
7:24
Association they're having one point of
7:27
view on one perspective but the
7:28
procedures are not agreed and there is
7:31
some structural and financial and
7:33
resource and people issues around some
7:36
of these changes around having separate
7:38
hospital ships around creating more
7:41
medical centers which have the ability
7:44
to have ventilators intensive care units
7:47
and that has not been agreed whether
7:49
it's structural changes that have to
7:51
mean to the ship or just admin changes
7:53
that has not been agreed and that is a
7:55
key sign then until it's agreed cruising
7:58
will not be able to get back into
7:59
service the next key sign I believe very
8:02
strongly is showing that cruising
8:04
something to start soon is not only is
8:06
cruising not on the agenda but travel
8:09
generally is not on the agenda what
8:11
we're seeing is countries are starting
8:12
to look at easing lockdowns moving out
8:15
of the very strict lockdown but when you
8:17
look at what's happening their process
8:18
it's very tentative it's very slow it's
8:20
very cautious so not little shops are
8:23
opening in some countries headrests is
8:25
opening but what we're seeing is is a
8:27
very key message that social distancing
8:29
is gonna be a fundamental part of that
8:31
and there's going to be restrictions on
8:34
gatherings of people there's talking
8:36
about you know sports being played
8:38
behind closed doors without crowds even
8:40
talking about you know clubs and bars
8:42
being really restricted restaurants
8:45
being restricted anything where people
8:46
are coming together it's highly unlikely
8:47
that we're gonna see a sign off quite
8:50
soon and that you know large groups of
8:52
people can board
8:53
cruise ships when they can't even go to
8:55
concert venues or other venues or select
8:57
there of course in terms of social
8:59
distancing is how you can imagine that
9:00
on a cruise ship it's hot enough even on
9:03
land but when you've got big
9:04
concentrations of people and that still
9:06
has to be really worked through before
9:08
cruising can start what so importantly
9:10
linked to that is travel generally is
9:12
not opening we're already seeing that
9:15
the airlines are constantly postponing
9:18
and indicating that they don't believe
9:19
they're going to be running full
9:20
services the airline industry of course
9:22
is really important because a lot of
9:24
people will be flying into ports whether
9:25
that's cross border or even an internee
9:27
to get to the cruise lines and onto
9:30
cruisers
9:31
so that infrastructure is not up and
9:32
running it's gonna be hard for cruisers
9:34
to start up until that whole
9:35
infrastructure is in place and even in
9:37
the airline industry they can't even
9:38
agree yet what the process is gonna be
9:40
for people boarding planes so the stores
9:43
are discussion around what those testing
9:45
or screening protocols are going to be
9:47
what we're also seeing many tourist
9:48
ministers across the globe are basically
9:52
indicating to people they shouldn't
9:53
really expect to be doing cross-border
9:55
travel in during this summer perhaps
9:58
even into the late part of the year
10:01
they're indicating that there may be
10:02
some potential to do more domestic
10:05
travel within a country which can be
10:07
more controlled so it's really hard to
10:09
see that cruising and travel generally
10:12
is really going to be unlocking anytime
10:14
soon also very interesting point is if
10:17
you think in the run-up to the shutdown
10:18
there was very strong restrictions on
10:20
movement of people around the world or
10:22
even boarding things like aeroplanes or
10:25
cruise ships where at that time they
10:28
were banning people who'd been to or
10:30
from China from South Korea from Vietnam
10:33
from Cambodia now if you look many
10:35
months later the big big areas that have
10:39
had huge issues with the virus
10:41
so in the United States in North America
10:43
and in Europe
10:45
those are big concentrations where the
10:47
virus has had a huge effect so it's also
10:50
very likely that you might find those
10:51
restrictions on letting people from
10:53
those countries move around and join the
10:55
cruisers so that is also a really
10:58
fundamental point is where they're
10:59
actually the key heart of cruising
11:01
passengers aren't allowed to move around
11:03
and I have seen some interviews with
11:04
some of the river cruising people in
11:06
Europe saying one of the
11:06
big challenges they think in starting
11:09
river cruising again is the bulk of
11:10
their passengers come from North America
11:12
but it's very likely that the borders in
11:14
Europe are going to be closed to people
11:15
coming from North America for quite a
11:17
long time sony towards the end of the
11:20
year the next key hurdle or sign that
11:22
cruising is going to struggle to start
11:24
anytime soon is this still a lot of
11:26
hostility and our political pressure on
11:28
the whole era of cruising so if you look
11:29
in Australia they started criminal
11:31
investigations into the Ruby Princess
11:33
and what happened around that whole
11:36
process of bringing over nineteen into
11:38
Australia we've seen a lot of hostility
11:40
still from the CDC in the u.s. which is
11:42
of course it's negotiating with the
11:44
cruise lines he looks on the statements
11:45
from the group within there that looks
11:48
after the cruising industry they've been
11:50
pretty hostile towards cruising still
11:52
see increasing it as a major challenge a
11:55
major issue in terms of keeping the
11:57
virus under control and spreading the
11:58
virus so there's a lot of hostility from
12:00
the sort of authorities that need to
12:01
sign off cruising starting and there's
12:03
no sign of that easing yet and I do
12:05
think the cruising is going to be low on
12:07
their priorities in terms of getting
12:08
that moving again and of course cruising
12:10
can't start until they've got all of
12:12
those authorities on side another key
12:14
sign is that despite all the excitement
12:16
of sitting with people like me and other
12:17
people to follow the channel and have
12:19
enthusiasm for cruising overall there's
12:22
not a huge energy and push for cruising
12:24
to start again of course those of us who
12:26
love cruising we have high energy and
12:28
interest in it starting but if you look
12:30
at some of the the stats for example in
12:32
some of the recent filings we've seen
12:34
that over fifty percent of people whose
12:36
cruises have been cancelled want their
12:38
money back they're not taking future
12:40
cruise credits which means a big chunk
12:41
of people are actually saying I want my
12:43
money I'm not preparing future cruise
12:45
credit because I'm not sure what I'm
12:46
going to be doing again the other thing
12:48
we're seeing is all the cruise lines in
12:50
their financial statements are talking
12:53
about 2020 being very very very soft in
12:56
terms of cruising lots people can't
12:58
sleep cruising as they can or shift
13:00
increasing when we look at next year
13:02
although the buzz has been around all
13:04
bookings are very strong when you look
13:05
at the data again through those
13:07
financial submissions is actually it's
13:09
pretty flat and what we're seeing is I
13:12
think quite a big issue because if you
13:14
think about the amount of people that
13:15
have future cruise credit even with the
13:17
50% of people taking it if they're
13:19
starting to look
13:20
20:21 and it's pretty flat you there are
13:23
still signs that there's not a huge
13:24
amount of energy yet for a broader
13:26
perspective evils to give out to
13:28
cruising and one of things that the
13:29
cruise line CEOs have said linking back
13:31
to my first point is until the people
13:34
and public are really keen to get back
13:36
to cruising the way the cruising comes
13:38
back is going to be limited because they
13:40
can't actually go out all guns blazing
13:43
with lots of ships lots of regions if
13:45
there's not a huge amount of people who
13:47
want to go cruising there's a whole
13:48
bunch of signs out there that cruising
13:51
is not going to start for some time so
13:53
even if you get excited and you see the
13:56
new announcements of dates for a month
13:58
time about cruising started I think you
14:00
need to be extremely cautious because I
14:02
think that it's very unlikely that
14:04
cruising is going to start quickly of
14:06
course I may be proven wrong and a lot
14:07
of these things will be solved and
14:08
things will start moving quickly but
14:10
those are the signs that I see I have
14:12
loads more videos with lots of tips
14:15
advice thoughts about cruising and so I
14:17
need you watch another one of those
14:18
right now
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