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Welcome to Teranov's Geopolitics
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channel. Are Russian jet drones about to
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change everything or are we just looking
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at massive propaganda hype? Stay tuned
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because today we break down the whole
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Over the next few minutes, we're diving
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deep into some wild new reports. We've
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got claims about new Russian jet powered
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attack drones hitting the front lines,
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massive factory expansions, missile
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production numbers, and even a brand new
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satellite network built to control it
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all. Make sure you watch until the end
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because the real picture of where
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long-range warfare is going might
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totally surprise you.
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Foreign sources and Russian Telegram
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channels have been talking non-stop
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about a huge surge in the production of
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new jet powered attack drones,
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specifically the Garin 4 and Garin 5.
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This suggests Russia might be stepping
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into a whole new phase of its long range
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Alongside those reports, a whole flood
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of claims has surfaced about Russian
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missile production, total drone output,
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and the development of Russia's new low
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Earth orbit satellite network, RASPIT.
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Now, some of these tech upgrades are
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backed by hard evidence, but others are
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just intelligence estimates that nobody
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has independently verified yet.
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That distinction really matters.
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especially when both sides in this
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information war use weapons production
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claims to shape the narrative.
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Let's look at this whole new generation
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of Garin drones. The Garin family is one
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of Russia's primary long range strike
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systems and everybody knows the Iranian
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Shahid 136 design is linked to the older
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Garin 2 which has seen heavy use against
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targets deep behind the front lines.
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But the battlefield keeps changing. Air
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defense networks are getting way
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smarter, which forces both sides to
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build unmanned systems that are faster,
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harder to shoot down, and available in
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massive numbers. In this environment,
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bringing out jet powered Garin variants
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marks a pretty serious technical pivot.
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Open- source reports describe the Garin
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4 and Garin 5 as the speed demons of the
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family, ditching the slow piston engines
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of the old models for jet propulsion.
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Teranov's analysis is built on cutting
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through the noise. So, let's examine
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what that extra speed actually buys them
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That extra speed gives them a huge
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operational edge. Air defense crews get
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a tiny fraction of the time to spot,
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track, and shoot down a high-speed
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drone. Even if you keep the warhead size
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the exact same, faster drones wreck the
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economic math of air defense and put
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immense strain on expensive missile
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How many Garin 4 and Garin 5 units are
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actually rolling off the assembly lines?
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That is where things get super blurry.
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The math here just completely falls
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apart if you look too closely at the
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headlines. Western and Ukrainian
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intelligence groups keep publishing
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wildly different numbers for Russian
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drone production. Some claims say Russia
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can churn out thousands of Garand drones
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every single month, while other official
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reports say the total annual count for
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all long range attack drones is way, way
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Both of those statements cannot be true
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Take 2025 for example, when reports
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claimed monthly Garin production had
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already blown past several thousand
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units. If that was real, then another
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estimate claiming only about 11,000
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total Garin and Gerber drones were built
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for an entire year makes zero sense.
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There are a few ways to explain this
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mess. Different analysts might be
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counting different types of aircraft. Or
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maybe some are tracking raw component
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shipments while others only count
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finished, ready to fly airframes. Plus,
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factory output shifts wildly
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The reality is that Moscow doesn't drop
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official monthly manufacturing
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spreadsheets for its military hardware.
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That makes real sidebyside comparisons
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basically impossible.
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So, is Russia actually binning the
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One of the biggest claims floating
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around is that factories are actively
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phasing out the old piston engine
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guarante to focus heavily on the faster
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Some Ukrainian military reports go even
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further, claiming these new jet models
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might already make up half of all long
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range drone strikes. Teranov's analysis
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is always about sticking to facts over
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hype. And right now, that 50% number is
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completely unverified.
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When Russian strikes happen, public
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defense reports usually count the total
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incoming targets, but they rarely
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confirm the exact submodel of every
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crashed or intercepted drone with total
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accuracy. Trying to figure out the exact
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market share of the Garin 4 and Garin 5
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purely from public reports is basically
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an impossible puzzle.
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Still, moving toward faster drones makes
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total strategic sense. Russia has
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already proven that swarming cheap
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drones burns up enemy air defense
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interceptors and forces radar sites to
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reveal their positions. Throwing faster
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jet drones into that mix shrinks the
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defender's reaction window and makes
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that exact tactic way more lethal.
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That doesn't mean the old garants are
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going to the scrap heap, though.
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Instead, Russia is likely building a
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mixed toolbox using different drone
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types for totally different mission
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Now, let's talk about the Alaba factor.
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The Alabuga special economic zone in
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Tatarstan gets cited constantly whenever
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people discuss Russian industrial drone
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That industrial hub is heavily linked to
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the mass production of Garin series
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drones. Fresh satellite images from 2026
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show new construction and massive
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facility expansion, which definitely
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points to expanding floor space.
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But brand new concrete buildings don't
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automatically tell you how many drones
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are actually flying out the door. A
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giant new hall could be used for final
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assembly, storing parts, housing foreign
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workers, or testing completely unrelated
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gear. Slapping a specific production
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target on new satellite photos without
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internal factory data is just pure
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What we can say for sure is that Russia
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is sinking massive capital into
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long-term industrial infrastructure for
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uncrit systems. Teranov's analysis is
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keeping a close eye on this because
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industrial footprint is the ultimate
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indicator of long-term capability.
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Meanwhile, Russia's missile production
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is another critical piece of this
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puzzle. You can't look at drone numbers
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in a vacuum while ignoring cruise and
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ballistic missile output. Western
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intelligence reports keep putting out
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monthly estimate numbers for Russian
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Escond, KH1001, and caliber production.
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Those assessments show that even while
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firing steady volleys at Ukrainian
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infrastructure, Russian plants are
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maintaining a surprisingly high build
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You often hear the argument that Russia
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is launching more missiles each month
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than its factories can build, proving
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their stockpiles are running dry.
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Frankly, that logic is super flawed and
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ignores basic military logistics.
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A nation can easily ramp up active
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factory lines while simultaneously
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pulling older stock out of deep storage
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reserve vaults. On top of that, factory
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output moves in waves depending on
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supply chains, microchip deliveries, and
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immediate frontline needs.
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You simply cannot declare a missile
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shortage just by taking one month's
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launch count and subtracting an
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estimated monthly production figure.
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There are way too many moving parts
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Then we have the space element, Rasvet.
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The most game-changing shift might not
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even be happening inside a factory, but
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hundreds of miles above the Earth.
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Russia has started launching satellites
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for its new RAS at low Earth orbit
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communications constellation, which many
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people call Moscow's answer to Starlink.
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Before these launches, Russian President
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Vladimir Putin explicitly noted that
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satellite internet networks would be key
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for controlling remote unmanned
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The first batch of 16 serial production
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Rasbit satellites went up into orbit in
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Russian plans call for a massive
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constellation with early phases aiming
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for several hundred active satellites in
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The impact of Rasvvic goes way past
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civilian high-speed internet. A
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dedicated low Earth orbit network gives
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the military high bandwidth
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jam-resistant data links to control
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swarms of drones and uncrrewed vehicles
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in real time over massive distances.
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Still, until we see documented proof on
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the battlefield, claims that Rasvid is
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already actively steering combat drones
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need to be taken with a grain of salt.
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When you step back and look at all these
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pieces together, you see a much bigger
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picture than just a new drone model
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hitting the front lines. Russia seems to
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be building a fully integrated unmanned
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warfare ecosystem. That means pairing
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mass-produced strike drones with
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high-speed jet variants backed by
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massive factory hubs and tied together
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by a dedicated space-based satellite
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If the reports about scaled up Garin 4
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and Garin 5 production hold true,
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bringing jet engines into mass-produced
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drones is a massive leap forward.
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Yet, hard numbers remain the biggest
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missing piece of the puzzle. Bold claims
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that Russia is cranking out thousands of
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jet drones a month or that jet models
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make up half of all strikes shouldn't be
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swallowed as proven facts without hard
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independent verification.
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But the overall direction of travel is
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getting pretty impossible to deny.
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Russia is simultaneously dropping huge
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money into physical factory expansion,
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building its own orbital communications
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net, and engineering faster strike
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If those three legs of the stool get
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fully linked into a single real-time
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combat system, the impact on future
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warfare will go way beyond what any
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individual Garin drone can do on its
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Right now, the Garin 4 and Garin 5 are
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still wrapped in military secrecy and
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unanswered questions, but their arrival
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gives us a very clear preview of what
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the next generation of longrange drone
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warfare is going to look like. If you
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like this podcast, please like,
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subscribe, and share.
