0:00
Well, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutter reckons the alliance is ready to defend every inch of its territory after that strike in Romania
0:08
But are we? Are we really? How do you anticipate NATO is going to respond to this latest incursion in Romanian airspace
0:17
if indeed it is a Russian drone and it was deliberately sent there? Certainly. I think it almost definitely was a Russian drone
0:24
We've seen a number of Russian drones land in the area around the tri-border between Ukraine, Moldova, where I'm speaking to you from now, and Romania, around the city of Galati in Romania
0:38
That area in the south is part of the Danube River Delta
0:43
It is a key supply route for munitions and other supplies into Ukraine
0:49
And that southwestern-most region of Ukraine that contains the Delta, Bilharad, we've seen Russian drones target bridges, infrastructure, and civilian targets there repeatedly throughout this war as well
1:02
It is not the first Russian drone that has crossed the border. Tragically, there have been a number of others, although this is, of course, the first one that has directly hit an apartment building and been such a shock
1:12
But I don't think the lack of an invocation of NATO's Article 5, the NATO Treaty's Mutual Defense Clause, or even Article 4, which is the clause of that treaty that calls for measures to be adopted to try to deter or otherwise build up joint defense measures in the short term, should be seen as necessarily a weakening of the alliance
1:34
A lot of these drones sometimes go over the border because of jamming and attempts to stop them from hitting their targets
1:42
Of course, the Russians are very happy to engage in terrorism in this way as well
1:46
We see Vladimir Putin's former holdover president, Dmitry Medvedev, tweeting out and sharing threats on social media and warning that more could be to come
1:56
But the Russians like to troll in that way. The key linchpin of NATO's mutual defense treaty is, of course, the nuclear umbrella from key members, the United Kingdom, France and the United States
2:08
I don think that has been weakened We can of course talk plenty more about what Trump has been up to and his agenda there But I think the alliance remains strong and has actually gained strength through Russia full invasion of Ukraine when we seen new member states including
2:23
Sweden and Finland, join. That's, um, that's, I understand, you know, that NATO looks stronger for it. The thing
2:32
I, the word I was most interested in in my introduction was probing, that Russia is probing
2:38
NATO, probing NATO's, looking for a response, both perhaps militarily and politically
2:45
And if I was sitting in the Kremlin looking at how UK media and some European media has
2:52
been responding to this, I'd be thinking I'd be doing quite a good job on behalf of Russia
2:58
I've got people wondering about NATO, questioning its strengths, questioning its unity, questioning
3:04
its efficacy. certainly for vladimir putin dividing nato and dividing the wider atlantic alliance between the
3:12
united states in particular uh europe and the uk is just as much a war aim as taking additional
3:20
territory in the donbass or in the two southern regions of ukraine gerson and zaporozhya that he
3:26
has claimed to have annexed and where his troops continue to attack on a daily basis on the ground
3:33
because doing so is fundamentally the only thing that can make Russia a larger, real power on the global stage
3:40
Unlike China, which seeks to sort of replace the U.S. as the core superpower to have some hegemonic qualities
3:48
Russia knows it can only be a real power in a world where everybody else is weaker
3:53
Now, does that mean that Putin has had success in dividing that alliance
3:57
There are certainly those detractors of President Trump's who would argue that that is the case
4:02
However, I think that that is not necessarily true. While I don't think President Trump necessarily recognizes the value in NATO and sometimes
4:11
misunderstands it, as we see with his attempts to try to cajole members into an offensive
4:16
war rather than a defensive war, NATO has grown, defense spending has continued to grow
4:22
and new measures are in place while so much cooperation has also taken place in terms of getting those arms to Ukraine Does that mean that enough has been done No Does that mean that Vladimir Putin will stop threatening the alliance
4:34
I don't think he'll stop threatening it until he's cold and dead and in his grave. But that doesn't mean that we should look at disappointment with what has happened
4:43
but we should look at the lessons of what is learned and how things can continue to be strengthened going forward
4:48
And we need to really bring those deterrence tactics out of the realm of just sort of the nuclear umbrella
4:54
and say how do we deter Russian terrorism, whether that be with drones or with the cutting of cables in the North and Baltics
5:01
How, how. Max, lovely to talk to you. And I'm uplifted by your positive approach to NATO
5:10
Let's bring in Tobias Elwood now, former Conservative Defence and Foreign Office Minister. Nice to see you, Tobias
5:16
How do you think NATO should respond? Does NATO look stronger as a consequence of the invasion, the Russian invasion of Ukraine
5:23
or does it look weaker because of Donald Trump's machinations? Well, good morning
5:28
No, I agree with your assessment that Mark Rutte, the head of NATO
5:33
must make these statements that NATO is ready to respond. But in reality, this absolutely is not the case
5:40
NATO is structured, make this very clear, to respond to all-out war
5:45
not the type of probing attacks, grey zone warfare that we see Russia pursuing on a daily basis
5:52
Putin's objective here is to make NATO panic and for citizens across Europe to doubt the wisdom of supporting Ukraine if it brings danger to our doorsteps
6:05
And when you look at what NATO actually did, swift condemnation from international leaders, including here in the UK
6:12
But NATO's reaction was to deploy F-16's typhoons to a drone attack
6:18
It took minutes, almost hours, to get those aircraft in place. The attack had already taken place. It was complete by then
6:26
It shows how archaic, if you like, our air defence actually is
6:31
And I say that not just on the front line bumping up against Russia, Ukraine, war
6:35
but here in the UK we are absolutely vulnerable We have not moved our own defence posture to handle the types of threats that could come over the hill at any moment NATO is not necessarily geared up for this type of Russian probing
6:50
but it's going to need to get its act together, isn't it? It's going to need to find a way to
6:54
address this, because otherwise the effects that you've just outlined, that, you know
6:58
putting fear into people's hearts way beyond the borders of Ukraine is exactly what Putin will
7:03
achieve well it is and and we haven't recognized this i mean this we we now speak in astonishment
7:11
that my goodness there was a drone attack that wandered into into romania it could have been
7:17
and even the president of romania said there's a possibility that ukrainian air defense knocked
7:23
a russian drone off target and then it flew into into uh romanian airspace whether that's the case
7:30
or not, you outlined the fact that there have been many incursions, not just in Romania
7:34
but in Poland. We've had in the UK drone flights over RAF airfields. And by the time we got there
7:43
to try and sort it out, I'm sure the drone operators were puzzled to see that their own
7:48
drones hadn't been shot down. And that, as I say, just shows you where warfare is going
7:53
But the absence of Britain and indeed NATO to keep up. Now, I know work is being done behind
7:59
the scenes but I should say that the delays in the spending confirmation was called the defense
8:05
investment plan still hasn't confirmed and allowed contracts to be signed for us to prepare
8:11
as I say for dangers ahead I'm very short of time but I must ask I always get this sense that perhaps
8:18
Europe is afraid of Putin is afraid of poking the bear despite many people saying the best way of
8:24
dealing with the bear is to sort of stand him down square up to him where are you on that
8:29
Well, that's another thing. We need to rekindle our Cold War statecraft skills, if you like
8:37
Russia is sending subs into territorial waters here in the UK. Russian jets are buzzing our airspace
8:44
Remote underwater vessels are mapping our sea cables. And we're doing nothing about it to make that calculation to push back, but not trigger an escalatory ladder
8:54
Those are the Cold War statecraft skills that we need to rekindle
