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With Liverpool's poor form this season showing no signs of letting up, captain Virgil van Dijk has had to front up his fair share of the criticism - but what has actually happened to the legendary defender? Do the stats back up the perception that he is past his best? And what can he and the club learn from an old Greek philosopher is preparing for his exit? Alex sits in the FourFourTwo hot seat to explain it all!
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In ancient Greece, around 200 BC, there lived a man named Polybius, a philosopher and historian
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who developed an idea known as anacyclosis. Stick with me, this is going somewhere
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Anacyclosis is a social cycle theory that says political systems go through predictable cycles
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a clockocracy to monarchy to tyranny to aristocracy to oligarchy to democracy
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and back to the start. And with that theory, our mate Polybius predicted the rise of the Roman
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empire early and made a load of Roman alliances. So when the Greeks fell to the Romans after
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the war, Polybius was still able to live a comfortable, respected life in Greece
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Liverpool captain Virgil van Dijk has often had ancient Grecian imagery put on him in
0:44
football discourse, hasn't he? He's been called a Colossus, Zeus-like, a Greek god
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statuesque in the best way, not the Mustafi way, a leader of a backline, of a team, of
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City, even, guiding Liverpool to two Premier League titles and a Champions League in his
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near eight years at the club, with two and a half of those as captain
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To reveal my personal bias here, I believe him to be the greatest Premier League centre-back
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of all time, well-deserving of the demi-god status he holds on Merseyside
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But from an outsider's view, Liverpool appear to be going through their own version of anacylosis
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if you will, even if this season recovers. So, as the cycle changes and power dynamics shift
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Could Virgil van Dijk do with learning a little something from our old mate Polybius and preparing for the end
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It's been a horrible start to the season for Liverpool. At the end of November, Liverpool have conceded more goals with 47 than any other side in Europe's top five leagues since May
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Their record after 14 games was the worst by any defending Premier League champion since Leicester in 2016-17
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and at one point they were on the club's worst run since 1953
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As captain, as he should, Van Dijk has repeatedly offered himself up as the voice of the players
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He took to the modern Lyceum Instagram after the PSV defeat to say
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we're facing one of the toughest moments of our journey, but we refuse to let this define us
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But Slott has faced the cameras. Canate has been widely criticised and Salah's recent comments have dominated the headlines
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But the truth is, failure has many fathers. So why does Van Dijk appear to be a little bit less in the firing line
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Is he not deserving of more heat? Van Dijk has made a number of high-profile errors
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According to Opta, he's given away the highest number of penalties of any Premier League player in all competitions so far this season, with three
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A controversial foul at the edge of the box against Brentford, a clumsy challenge on Matete and the Community Shield
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and of course that infamous handball which swings Liverpool's Champions League game against PSV
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But there was also the lazy leg for Nico Gonzalez's goal against City and a meme-worthy backturn for a strike against Sunderland that deflected in
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And the fact is, Van Dijk has performed worse in a number of key metrics in the league this season
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when compared to last. His long pass completion rate, those famous long switches, have taken an over 10% hit
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He's winning less tackles, making less interceptions and recovering less loose balls
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In fact, his loose ball recovery numbers are the lowest they've been at any point in his
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Premier League career. This graph compares Virgil 24 numbers in the Premier League in red to this season in blue You you can see the drop in certain areas However a deeper look into some of these numbers and it isn so simple
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Virgil is actually even more dominant in the air this season than last, something I didn't even think possible
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He's also, in fact, tackling more dribblers, is losing less challenges, is carrying more, and is having just as much influence with his touches
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He's even had a number of standout games, winning man of the match in Liverpool's 5-1 win over Frankfurt
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So, what's the disconnect here? Where's the aura? The biggest issue I see for Liverpool this season is their defensive distances
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When a team presses forward, if the front and back lines get disconnected, you can get yourself into a whole world of problems against the wrong teams
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The best teams in the world squeeze as a unit, while of course adapting to their opponent's exact construction
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There is sometimes good reason to keep the game more stretched from front to back, especially if the opposition are underloaded in midfield
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After beating Inter Milan, Slott spoke to TNT in his post-match about keeping what he called a plus one in the back line
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rather than committing men forward as Inter were trying to attack the last line
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And that time, it worked, keeping Inter to just 0.44 xG across the whole 90 minutes
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But there's been many times this season, especially against teams who move through them quickly
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where Liverpool have become very disconnected and it's left them exposed centrally
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with huge gaps appearing from front to back, something their opponents have exploited
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Here against Sunderland, you can see it. They consistently found gaps. Building in a three, Salah jumps on and Shabozhulai doesn't respond
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creating this huge distance inside for Siddiqui to step into. He turns Shabozhulai with ease and he's away through their centre
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getting that pass into Brobby's feet before Kanate has to foul him. Here against City, they get disconnected over to their left
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They're pressing high, it looks aggressive and proactive to the eye, but they're leaving huge gaps centrally
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So one pass can change the whole picture. And if your opponent has Bernardo Silva
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they can do that. Bernardo Silva plays this ball into Haaland. The entire team is taken out
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Those front to back distances are massive and City are away, ending in a great shot from Doku
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that should make it 1-0. And here against Brentford, they're pressing to their right
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Brentford circulate the ball. Those big distances appear as the forward and back lines don't squeeze together
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The ball comes over to Coyote who has acres of space to drive into, completely unchallenged, almost until he gets to the Liverpool penalty box. Look at that distance
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there from front to back. Bus-worthy. And all of this means Virgil has to do a lot of running
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backwards, defending big spaces. But it's not just playing through, it's going over as well
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According to the Times and Opta, Liverpool are facing the most long balls in the Premier League
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per 90 this season. And I actually think they're relying on Virgil more this year to deal with
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aerial threat. If teams can't profit from those stretched distances inside, they'll bypass the
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midfield entirely to try and win the second ball, and there's only so much one man can do
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Recent examples include the build-up to Sunderland's goal at Anfield and Forrest's third goal
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long balls exploiting a lack of defensive discipline. This lovely graph looks at how
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well teams manage to press against their opponents in the Premier League, basically
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measuring teams on how well their opponents complete their passes in build-up versus the
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regularity of their opponents losing the ball in dangerous areas. As you can see, Liverpool are a
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massive outlier in one sense, disrupting their opponents' pass completions massively. So you could take that as a good thing, but watch the games and look at that other metric
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on the Y axis and you see all that disruption doesn't actually lead to that many exciting
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situations Teams know what to exploit even if they can build well against an energetic press Now is a lot of this related to losing Trent I would argue yes Many teams would sit off against Liverpool preferring less of a basketball game and shrinking space
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because they know one ping from Trent can change the whole shape of a game
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But squeezing high as a unit is massively correlated to performing well
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And when you plot expected goal difference against average defensive line height, you can see Liverpool sit about mid-table for both
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Their defensive line is deeper this year, and the better teams, generally, you see where they are
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Perhaps there's a physical component to this. Perhaps Van Dijk isn't as sprightly as he once was, and I think that's fair
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He's 34. Even the best Greek statues need a pressure wash, now and again
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But considering where Liverpool were just a few months ago on some of those metrics, right up there with the big boys, I weight this more towards team instruction
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And Liverpool fan Lawrence McKenna tends to agree. It would be fair to say this isn't Virgil's peak performance this season, but I do think that during the storm, we still saw a captain and a leader that Liverpool really needed in that time
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Someone that I think the manager could rely on to at least try to enact some of his tactics on the field
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But I think in particular, when it comes to Liverpool fans, and I don't mean globally, I mean within Anfield
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they'll get on the backs of the people they need to and support the people that they understand are doing what needs to be done
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And I think Virgil falls into the second category of I am trying to do the job here
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I'm actually trying to get the game won. However, sometimes there are just commitment issues
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I could not believe my eyes when I saw this goal. I remember watching it live
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This was Liverpool's shape five touches after losing the ball in the midfield against Brentford back in October
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Five opposition touches. Van Dijk is on a total island. Canati is trying to deal with the run from a very difficult sharder
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There's no counter-pressing. The full-backs are both high and wide. It's bad
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It's a good pass from Dammsgaard, but the lack of a response to the turnovers has been a big issue
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Are there other factors around Van Dijk? Of course, and many we don't have time to fully explore
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I think Liverpool's recruitment team seemed to have misjudged where the league was heading this season, or at least the way their opposition would play
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In signing two incredibly aggressive, withholding full-backs in Kirkiz and Frimpong, two incredibly technically efficient nines in Isak and Eketike, and a space creator in Virts
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I think they were preparing a team to consistently break down low blocks, players who love tight spaces and waves of attacks
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But that's just not how their opposition had played. Slott even alluded to it after that Brentford game
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It is definitely that teams have a certain playing style against us. It's a very good strategy to play
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We've not found an answer yet. I don't think Virgil's legs have gone or he's on the total decline here
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I just think he's 34 with thousands of minutes of football in his legs
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and has been massively exposed this year by a lot of different factors
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And the fact is, there's just never been that many centre-backs of Van Dijk's age
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who A, get asked to do what he does, but B, might be able to do it
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And let's be clear, at a club like Liverpool, the objective is to lead his team to Premier League and Champions League glory
10:04
Rio Ferdinand's suspect last few years come to mind. Kompany was a similar age when he left the league
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but he was supported by Stones and Otamendi and Laporte. John Terry was phased out
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We are in a new era. Players play longer and Virgil has really looked after himself
10:18
But no man is exempt from father time. Liverpool have been crying out for a player who can offer genuine competition to Canate and take some of the burden off Van Dijk And the Gehi signing feels like even more of a miss right now Canate is making twice as many errors leading to shots this year compared to last year in the league He has been so poor at times And Van Dijk also had to contend with a
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huge amount of flux in both fullback positions. Kerkhez has had an unstable start to his Anfield
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career. Connor Bradley and Jeremy Frimpong have both suffered from injuries, so Gomez and
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Shabozhalay have had to fill in there. And even Gravenberch has spent time partnering Van Dijk
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when Liverpool have gone behind in games. It's all disruption and discontinuity
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So I find myself feeling, sorry for him's the wrong word, he's on 350k a week
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But the last time things approached something like crisis for Liverpool was in 22-23
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when they were going through similar injury problems at the back and Van Dijk was consistently
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alongside Jordan Henderson in defence. At that time though, players like Henderson and James Milner
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who once infamously berated Van Dijk after giving up a goal against United that season
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were able to offer those respected alternative leadership voices. And my question is, who in the current squad can not only
11:26
hold Van Dijk accountable in the way we all need to be at times, but can bear some of the brunt of
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the leadership? Curtis Jones is no established leader yet, and Salah may have his reasons
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but it doesn't feel like he wants that role for sure. So, has the aura debt got too much
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I don't know if that's how you use that phrase on, I'm nearly 30. Van Dijk is unquestionably
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a Liverpool legend. He helped them win a first league title in 30 years, their sixth Champions
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League, he took Liverpool equal with United's record of 20 league title wins last season
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and ahead of them in terms of total trophies. His arrival in January 2018 was the spark for
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one of the club's proudest eras, and he's been with them through a number of these cycles of
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death and rebirth. The implication, if he were to leave or begin to accept a reduced role
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would be that that era has ended. Something that would be extremely difficult, both for him
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and Liverpool fans to accept. And in my view, Van Dijk must stay for now
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He's a stabilising figure, a leader in the backline, continuity in a time of great upheaval
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He still has plenty to offer at Anfield. As a player and a leader, even if he's had his moments
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he's got a huge amount of credit in the bank. And Loz agrees. We're also a club that is able to manage declines
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And I think if there's anyone who would be allowed that decline, it would be Virgil van Dijk
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because he changed fundamentally what it was that our expectations were of
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could we be with a title chance to, we probably should be winning the title with this guy in the back line
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And I do think he is, he is therefore above criticism or above scrutiny for a lot of people
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But I'm not sure I fully agree. He may be above scrutiny, as Lawrence says
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But when I look at the trends of this league, I do worry for him. This league is going longer
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This league is going more intense in their sprints. This league is becoming more physical. And that aura that carried him for so long is, in real terms, a physical gift
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His technique is amazing. He reads situations unbelievably. But he's also been the bigger, stronger, faster, more powerful player for so long
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And I think this league will begin to challenge that more and more. Polybius' genius was that he saw the end coming
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He didn't kid himself that the Grecian Empire would last forever. so took steps to protect himself against it
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Liverpool may be a democracy or monarchy, depending on your viewpoint, but every cycle ends
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And for this living Greek colossus and the club that house him, they must accept he won't last forever
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