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Hey ladies and gentlemen, this is Carmine Sabia for Explain America and as we head into the
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Michigan primary, it's underway as we're recording this video, Biden's got a big problem on his hands
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and it can extend to the general election. Before we get started, please make sure you like, comment
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share and subscribe. Those little things really help us out and they help our channel continue
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to grow. Real Clear Politics launched their new podcast. It's a podcast I recommend everybody
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listen to. They really bring it. Well, they're talking about what's going on in Michigan right
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now and the vote spearheaded by Representative Rashida Tlaib to have Democrats vote not
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committed. That's a vote against Joe Biden. If it's a significant number and if he loses a
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significant number of the Arab or Muslim population in Michigan, because not all Arabs are Muslims and
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not all Muslims are Arab, if he loses a significant portion of the Muslim vote, plus take into effect
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the younger generation who's against this war in Israel between Israel and Hamas, plus take in the
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fact that he's bleeding black voters right now according to David Axelrod, this could be a
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disaster for Biden and it could start today. I want you to listen to this and then give me your
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thoughts when you like, comment, share and subscribe. Those little things really help us out. We really
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do appreciate it. I'm Carmine Sabia for Explain America. We love you guys. God bless you. Take care everybody
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We also had some new polling data come out just this very morning from Emerson College
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showing Donald Trump leading Biden by 46-44 and in a five-way race he's Trump is up three
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points. Trump 42, Biden 39, Kennedy 6, Stein and West both won. We also have this situation
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Sean, where in the state of Michigan you have a bunch of progressives and Arab Americans in
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the Dearborn area that have been Rashida Tlaib and others have been pushing for Democrats to
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not vote for Joe Biden in the primary, to vote uncommitted. I just wonder at what point
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he's obviously going to win the primary. Dean Phillips is not going to beat him there. Dean
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Phillips is at like, you know, five, seven percent, but at what point does if uncommitted
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you know, at what number does that become a problem? If uncommitted is 10 percent, 20 percent
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30 percent, or is this just kind of a local spat in the primary? But certainly it has
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implications in a general election setting for sure, but talk about the primary first
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Yeah, I mean it's, there's not much doubt Donald Trump's going to win it handily and that
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Joe Biden is going to win it handily. You kind of have to do the math though. I think even as low
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as like two or three percent is a problem for Biden because that, you know, that can translate
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to like a percentage point off of his margin in a general election. If a fraction of those voters
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don't show up, if a large fraction of them just kind of do the same thing for the general
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he's done. Especially if you have Cornel West on the ballot who is, you know, rabidly
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pro-Palestinian, I believe. If there's a pro-Palestinian candidate on the ballot, he's going to have a really, really hard time winning that state because he doesn't have a
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lot of margin for error there. It definitely is a situation where Biden had, that's a state that's
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been been pretty close the last couple cycles. Obviously Trump won it in 2016, Biden won it in
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2020, but in every single general election poll that we have in our average right now, Sean
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and we have one, two, three, four, five, six, seven of them that have been taken
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five of them that have been taken since the beginning of the year, Trump's leading Biden. We're from two to eight points. He's up five in our average
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If he doesn't win Michigan, you know, that narrows the path quite substantially, doesn't it, for
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Biden? Yeah, if he doesn't win Michigan, it's pretty much over. And just, I laughed while you
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were saying that because people are just in denial about this online and just how dire things are. I
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don't think, I don't think Trump has ever led in a Michigan poll in 2016 or 2020. Maybe, maybe
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Trafalgar had one at the end of 2016, but I mean, this is unprecedented. So Biden's in a world of
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hurt there. And if he's shedding Arab American voters because of his position in Israel, I
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yeah, it is, it is very, very difficult for him to win the presidency without Michigan
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Last thing, going back to the primary and Nikki Haley, you've watched this, you've watched her
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you heard her speech. She's obviously going to lose again tomorrow. I mean, there's no evidence
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that, you know, there's any, any victory. And then you've got Super Tuesday, the following Tuesday
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a ton of states. And, you know, someone asked her, I think it was someone on Fox News
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Harris Faulkner, someone said, you know, when are you going to win a state or where are you going to
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win a state? And she was, got kind of, you know, offended by that. She said only three states have
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voted, you know, there are plenty more states out there for people to vote. How long does this go
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on and how much of a problem is it for Donald Trump? You had Gavin Newsom on one of the Sunday
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shows saying, look, Nikki Haley is great. She's our best surrogate against, you know, Trump. So
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how long do you think this goes on and how much does it hurt Trump, you know, a lingering effect
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into a general election? I don't think it really hurts him that much. I mean, it's a, because she's
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not really drawing blood anywhere. She's fast reaching. Yeah, only three states have voted
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but you have a Southern conservative state, you have like a libertarian New England state
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and you have a farm belt evangelical state. Like if she doesn't win there, where is she going to
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win? And she's at the point now, I think where she's hurting herself more than she hurts Trump
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because no one really thinks she can win. And I don't really think she's landing blows
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on Trump. I mean, I think any problem Trump has with establishment TGOP voters at this point is
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there, whether Nikki Haley runs or not. I really don't know what the end game is for her at this
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point. Okay. We're going to leave it there. Sean Trendy
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