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Michael Martins explains why this is a classic negotiation tactic used to secure military bases and mineral rights. From tariffs to 'off-ramps', understand the strategy before the USMCA renegotiations begin.
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#Greenland #Trump #Politics #Economics #Geopolitics #USMCA #CityAM #Shorts #Denmark #Canada
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I correctly predicted that President
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Trump would not be annexed in Greenland,
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at least not yet. The reason I was able
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to do this is because I spent four years
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of President Trump's first term working
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at US Embassy London for the American
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government. In that role, I was able to
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gain a very strong firthand experience
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of how this president tends to negotiate
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and it follows a pretty standard
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playbook. Step one, he makes clear what
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he wants and he makes a pretty
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forward-leaning, some would say extreme
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statement of how he wants to get there.
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In this case, he wants Greenland and he
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threatened US military annexation of it.
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That definitely focuses minds, which is
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what he wanted to do and it focused
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minds amongst European leaders and NATO
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leaders. Step two is you threatened to
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raise prices, in this case tariffs. He
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threatened to raise prices and tariffs
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on the countries and governments most
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opposed to what he wanted to do. And
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then step three is he tries to build an
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offramp that suits his purposes. In this
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case, the offramp is he wants to
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purchase Greenland from Denmark. To be
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clear, I don't think that's going to
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happen. The Danish government has made
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that clear. But also on the American
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side, you would need congressional
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approval and Congress is not in a space
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where it wants to spend that amount of
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money buying Greenland. My advice would
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be first offer to pay or build new
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military bases in Greenland for the US
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military. It doesn't matter if there's
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already a pre-existing treaty or that
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the US already has access. That's
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besides the point. He wants something
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new and preferably named after him. Step
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two is upgrade your existing trade and
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investment treaties in a way that suits
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American interests, usually in the form
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of preferential access for minerals or
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resources. Again, it doesn't matter if
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that already exists. update it and have
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an elaborate ceremony and celebration
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around it as a way of solidifying ties
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between the US and other European
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countries, for example. And step three
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is you want to hope that he finds a new
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point of interest to focus on. In this
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case, my view of who's next in line for
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this will be the prime minister of
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Canada, Mark Carney, who made a pretty
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forward-leaning speech at Davos about
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President Trump and also went on a quasi
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state visit to Beijing a week or two ago
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uh in an effort to foster stronger trade
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ties between Canada and China. The
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reason why I think this will come up
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next is because Canada and the US are
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about to renegotiate USMA, what used to
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be known as NAFTA, which is how trading
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terms between the US and Canada are
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agreed.
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