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The Philadelphia Flyers need to sign Trevor Zegras to contract extensions. They should go for long-term extensions, and we break down why.
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0:02
There's also the timeline part of it. Um
0:06
sometimes like like for bridge deal for
0:08
example. Um so you can have a player um
0:12
if you sign him to a two or three year
0:14
bridge deal but even though you know
0:16
that you want him long term, you can
0:18
extend that instead of sign him straight
0:20
away for eight years and having to
0:21
renegotiate with a player at 30, 31, 32.
0:25
maybe, you know, that that contract ends
0:27
up at 32 or 33 where you don't have to
0:30
sign him again to a long-term contract.
0:33
So, the timeline for me is is what I
0:35
worry about more than um sometimes
0:39
trying to extend a guy early on for a
0:42
long-term contract. It's trying to
0:44
position the organization in the best
0:47
best spot, I guess, to have the best
0:50
years under contract. This quote from
0:51
Flyers GM Danny Brier is over two years
0:54
old, but I think about it a lot. It's
0:56
especially relevant when Dany is working
0:58
on new contracts for players on the
1:00
roster. And right now, there's two big
1:02
pieces on the roster who are due new
1:04
contracts. Trevor Ziggress and Jaime
1:06
Dale. Both players are restricted free
1:09
agents, but with Ziggress being 25 and
1:11
Dale 24, they're right in that prime age
1:14
where you want to sign them for either a
1:16
mid or long-term contract if you can.
1:19
And if it were me in Danny's chair, I'd
1:21
go long-term on both Zegris and Dedale.
1:25
And before any semantics freaks get
1:27
stuck on what's long-term, I personally
1:29
would consider anything that's 6 years
1:31
or more to be long-term. Maybe I'd even
1:33
go so far as to say 5 years is
1:35
long-term, but yeah, definitely 6 years
1:37
or more. Hey, one quick thing before I
1:39
get into the meat of the video. Please
1:41
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1:43
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1:45
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1:47
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1:49
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1:51
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1:55
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1:57
profit off of your support. Thanks. So,
2:00
let's look first at Zegris. He's
2:03
probably the easier of the two in terms
2:05
of deciding a contract length. Ziggers
2:07
is 25 and coming off his most productive
2:10
offensive season, scoring a career-high
2:12
in goals with 26 and points with 67.
2:16
Now, normally it can be a little scary
2:18
going into contract negotiations with a
2:20
player right after he has a career year,
2:23
but the thing with Zegris is this wasn't
2:25
a career year that was like miles above
2:27
his previous highs. Back in 2021, when
2:30
he was just 20 years old, he scored 61
2:33
points in 75 games. And then the
2:35
following year he scored 65 points in 81
2:38
games when he was just 21 years old. So
2:41
looking at his numbers from this year,
2:43
like I said, it's not a drastic jump in
2:46
production. So what exactly are
2:48
Ziggers's contract projections? Looking
2:50
at Evolving Hockeyy's projections, which
2:52
are probably the best we have these
2:54
days, they say the highest probability
2:56
for Ziggers's next contract is four
2:58
years at about 7.5 million per season.
3:01
Now, for me, four years is way too short
3:04
for Ziggress. Sure, a cap hit of seven
3:06
and a half is reasonable, but Zegris is
3:08
a player who has that high-end skill
3:10
that this team needs. And he showed in
3:13
the last half of the year that he's a
3:14
very capable center. That's a guy I'd
3:16
want to lock up for as long as I could
3:18
if I were Danny. And speaking of Danny,
3:21
if you go back to that old clip I showed
3:23
at the beginning, he said that he looks
3:25
at things on a timeline basis where he
3:27
wants to lock up the best years of a
3:30
player's career. Well, if you can only
3:32
manage four years on this next Zagger's
3:34
contract, that would take him to age 29
3:37
and then you'd have to try and resign
3:39
him again at that age. Now, sure, if
3:42
things keep going in well in Philly, you
3:44
could probably resign him again in four
3:45
years. But by that point, there's a real
3:47
possibility that he could cost a lot
3:49
more money. And it goes to the other
3:51
thing Danny said, which is that if he
3:53
can, he likes the idea of having a guy's
3:56
long-term contract end at around age 32
3:59
or 33. So, that at that point, you're
4:02
probably not going to have to sign them
4:03
to another long-term deal that goes till
4:05
the player is almost 40. So, if
4:07
Ziggress's next contract ended at age 29
4:10
and you wanted to resign him, you could
4:12
almost guarantee that he'd want a max
4:14
term of 7 years and then you'd be
4:16
locking him up to big money until he's
4:18
36. So, not exactly ideal if you're
4:21
looking at things in a long-term view.
4:24
So, what about the other contracts that
4:25
Evolving Hockey projects for Ziggress?
4:28
They see the other most likely contracts
4:30
to be either a 5-year deal at about 7.9
4:33
million or an 8-year deal at roughly 9.6
4:37
million. Now, even though I'm pretty
4:39
high on Ziggus and I do believe he's
4:41
going to be able to replicate this past
4:43
season or even surpass it, I will admit
4:46
that 9.6 million does have some sticker
4:48
shock for a guy who hasn't even broken
4:50
70 points or 30 goals in a season yet.
4:54
But a big part of that weariness is
4:55
still remnants from the flat cap era of
4:58
co. So let's take a look at what this
5:00
AAV would look like back in that flat
5:02
cap landscape. The salary cap next year
5:05
is 104 million and an AAV of 9.6 is
5:09
about 9.2% of the cap. Back during CO
5:13
the cap was mostly at 81.5 million and
5:17
9.2% of the cap back then would equal
5:19
out to an AAV of about 7.5 million. I
5:23
don't know if that makes things look
5:24
more reasonable in your head, but it
5:25
sure does for me. The cap's going to
5:27
continue to go up in big ways. And while
5:30
an AAV of 9.6 seems like a lot right
5:33
now, it's not going to seem nearly as
5:35
crazy in four or 5 years, let alone 8
5:38
years from now. But going back to those
5:40
other two seasons where he scored 60
5:42
plus points, that's exactly why I'd be
5:45
comfortable giving him the maximum eight
5:47
years. Sure, you could look at his last
5:49
two seasons before this year and say,
5:51
"Oh, he's a risk because he had two
5:53
injury plague seasons where he only put
5:55
up a combined 47 points over 88 games."
5:58
But having seen Zegris firsthand this
6:00
season, I think it's safe to say he's
6:02
more like the player who scored 60 plus
6:04
points in three separate seasons than
6:07
the two seasons where he was dealing
6:09
with injuries and some coaches who
6:11
clearly weren't NHL caliber. And that's
6:14
without mentioning that Ziggers did
6:15
perform well down the stretch and in the
6:17
playoffs for the Flyers this season. All
6:19
while playing with an elbow ligament
6:20
sprain. And he's the closest thing to a
6:23
power play quarterback that this team
6:24
has seen since Claude Jaru was here.
6:27
Sure, the power play sucked again this
6:28
year, but it was clear by the end of the
6:30
year that Ziggress had taken the mantle
6:32
on his unit of, "Yeah, this thing's
6:34
going to run through me." And he ended
6:35
the season with 23 points on the man
6:37
advantage. The power play can't continue
6:40
to be horrendous for the next four to
6:42
eight years. So with that will come more
6:44
point production from Ziggress. Could
6:46
you get surplus value on an 8year $9.6
6:49
million contract with Ziggress? I mean
6:51
it sounds crazy to say, but yeah, it's
6:53
definitely possible. Ziggress could
6:55
easily have some point per game seasons
6:57
over the next 8 years. And if 9.5
7:00
million is the new 7.5, I think it could
7:02
definitely pan out as a pretty fair
7:04
contract overall. Sure, I guess you
7:06
could hedge and say, "But injuries," but
7:09
you could say that about literally every
7:11
player and every contract across all of
7:13
professional sports.
7:16
That takes us to Jaime Dale. Dedale is
7:18
24 and coming off a season where he
7:20
matched his previous career high in
7:22
points with 32 and set a new career high
7:25
with eight goals. This was Dedale's
7:27
second full season with the Flyers, and
7:29
I'd argue that he's shown positive
7:31
progression every season he's been with
7:33
the team. And even though he's already
7:35
played 295 games and his offensive
7:37
numbers haven't totally popped off the
7:39
page yet, he just turned 24 about a
7:41
month and a half ago, this is still a
7:43
young defenseman and he's trending in
7:45
the right direction. Looking at his
7:47
contract projections from Evolving
7:48
Hockey, they say the highest probability
7:51
for Dale is 5 years at about 6.1
7:54
million. If this ends up being the
7:56
contract, more or less, I'd be happy
7:58
with it, but I'd personally try and lock
8:00
him up for 6 years if he could. Now, if
8:02
we consider the Briier timeline thing I
8:05
already talked about, if you gave Ddale
8:07
5 or 6 years, that would line him up for
8:09
a new deal when he's about 29 or 30 and
8:12
then you run into the whole do we want
8:14
to extend this guy till he's 36 or 37.
8:17
But seeing as you can't work in
8:19
absolutes all the time, you got to bite
8:21
the bullet with Dale. The thing with a
8:23
new Dale contract right now is that both
8:25
sides probably want more medium-term
8:27
over short or long-term. Ddale and his
8:30
camp probably feel like he's just
8:32
starting to come into his own. So for
8:34
them, it probably makes sense to bet on
8:35
himself to pop off in the next two or
8:37
three years and set himself up for a
8:39
bigger contract down the line. On the
8:42
Flyers end, they definitely seem happy
8:44
with how Dale has progressed in Philly,
8:46
but again, this is probably the first
8:47
year in his career where he was actively
8:49
good pretty much the entire season. And
8:52
while that's encouraging, there's still
8:54
an air of let's see what else he can do
8:56
with the player. Evolving Hockey
8:58
projects the other two most likely
8:59
contracts for Dale as a three-year deal
9:01
at about 5.2 million or a 7-year deal at
9:05
about 7.6 million. Now, as I said, I'd
9:08
push for a six-year deal if I could, but
9:10
I guess if I really think about it, I'd
9:12
be just as happy with a 5-year deal. So,
9:14
let's do the same thing we did with
9:16
Zegris, where we compared his projected
9:18
cap hit to the old COVID flat cap we're
9:20
still mostly used to. So, if Dale got an
9:23
AEV of 6.1 million, that's about 6% of
9:26
the cap next season. Comparing that to
9:29
the 81.5 million flat cap, that's
9:32
equivalent to an AEV of about 4.8
9:34
million. I know there's still some salty
9:36
weirdos out there in the fan base who
9:38
are still crybab.
9:40
But when you look at things this way,
9:42
yeah, I have zero problem with that term
9:44
or that money. Back on March 24th,
9:47
Anthony DeMarco of Daily Faceoff
9:49
published an article breaking down
9:50
possible extensions for both Zegris and
9:52
Dale. And at that time, DeMarco sources
9:55
told him that quote, "The Flyers would
9:57
like to keep Ddale's AAV under that of
9:59
fellow defenseman Cam York's 5.15
10:02
million." From that date of March 24th
10:05
until the end of the regular season,
10:07
Dale scored five points in the final 12
10:09
regular season games. And in the
10:11
playoffs, he had four points in 10
10:12
games, including two goals. and he
10:15
averaged about a minute more ice time in
10:17
the playoffs than he did in the regular
10:18
season. Now, I have no idea how legit
10:21
Anony's sources are, but let's pretend
10:24
they are. Is that enough production from
10:26
Ddale over those final 22 games for the
10:28
front office to say, "Okay, yeah, fine.
10:31
We can pay him more than York." When
10:33
York signed his deal last summer, it was
10:35
about 5.4% of the cap. So, even if Danny
10:38
looks at Dale and says, "Okay, you know
10:40
what? Let's pay him the same cap
10:42
percentage as York. It's still going to
10:44
be a higher AAV than York simply because
10:47
the cap is going up eight and a half
10:49
million dollars for next season. If you
10:51
gave Dale the same cap percentage as you
10:53
gave York last year, that's an AAV of
10:56
about 5.6 million, a little bit over.
10:59
So, if it was Danny's plan a couple
11:01
months ago to try and keep Ddale's AAV
11:04
under Yorks, it seems like it's going to
11:05
be difficult to do that at this point.
11:08
So, to put a bow on things and quote
11:10
Larry King's Twitter, that's my two
11:12
cents. Be sure to let me know in the
11:14
comments what you would do if you were
11:16
handing out the contracts. Or you can
11:18
just tell me how stupid I am because I
11:19
know some of you sickos love to do that,
11:21
too. BSH forever. Peace.
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