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The Philadelphia Flyers need a goalie and the Toronto Maple Leafs need to trade one. That seems like a match made in heaven for a big move this offseason in the trade market.
READ THE ARTICLE: https://www.broadstreethockey.com/post/a-flyers-and-leafs-goalie-trade-is-starting-to-make-too-much-sense/
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0:05
If there's any move that we could
0:06
predict that the Philadelphia Flyers are
0:07
going to make this offseason is to get a
0:09
new goalie.
0:10
Unfortunately, Sam Ersson just hasn't
0:12
been
0:13
necessarily good enough to be the team's
0:16
backup, to be Dan Vladar's backup.
0:19
Especially after Vladar had his team MVP
0:22
season,
0:23
you can now look at Ersson and be like,
0:25
"It's not the defense, it's not the
0:26
player in front, it's not the players in
0:27
front of you, it is
0:29
simply that he statistically has been I
0:32
can't say that word, I'm so sorry.
0:34
Uh the NHL's worst goaltender in the
0:38
last three seasons, lit ranking dead
0:40
last in goals saved above expected uh
0:42
per Evolving Hockey, but it it it just
0:45
has has grown us to wonder what the team
0:50
could have looked like and where where
0:51
they'd finish in the standings if those
0:54
starts that Ersson had to make last
0:55
season, either because of Vladar's
0:57
injury or just regular rotation, had
1:00
some capable netminding in in in in his
1:03
place. Some
1:04
someone
1:05
possibly could be a tandem goalie, a
1:08
just career backup, a veteran like a
1:10
Brian Elliott kind of scenario that
1:12
we've seen before.
1:14
Just someone that is
1:16
consistently reliable and just
1:19
able to provide the Flyers some base
1:21
level of solid play that have just been
1:24
sorely lacking obviously in the crease
1:25
for forever. But someone that could
1:28
obviously just back up Vladar and
1:30
be just a support. If there's If the
1:33
Flyers were going to make any move, any
1:34
move at all,
1:35
they could forget about a center, forget
1:37
about a defenseman, even trading
1:38
Ristolainen. Like they could head into
1:39
next season. They don't make any move at
1:41
all. And if they're to choose one, what
1:43
would be be the most predictable is that
1:46
let Ersson walk in restricted free
1:47
agency cuz he's an RFA this summer, but
1:49
just let him not even get a qualifying
1:52
offer from the Flyers
1:54
at 26 years old and just go his way, see
1:58
if he can get somewhere else in an NHL
1:59
career. See you, bud, but it's just not
2:02
worked out. So,
2:03
from
2:05
this perspective that if the Flyers are
2:07
going to do this, sure they could go to
2:08
free agency, try to get up like a Daniil
2:11
Tarasov or
2:13
I don't even know, like Matt Murray is
2:15
like playing in the AHL. Um they're just
2:18
like
2:19
I don't know.
2:20
They're just like not a lot of free
2:21
agent options like Petr Mrazek out
2:22
there. I don't know, like
2:24
um they're not going to get Berra or
2:25
Rasky or anything, but if the if the if
2:28
the free agency is not an option and
2:29
like if they don't really see a fit
2:31
there and to like
2:32
accelerate and to
2:34
really cement that bet, I could see a
2:37
trade happening. And and it's honestly
2:39
like it it is just it's I'm burying the
2:41
lead here, but it has been that the just
2:43
the the Flyers and the Leafs feel
2:46
destined to make a goalie trade cuz just
2:48
the way that it's set up, the way that
2:50
everything is is panning out and and
2:53
just like the Flyers need a goalie and
2:55
the Leafs have a a surplus of goalies
2:58
and that's what we're going to get to
2:59
today. It's just like
3:01
it just the way that it's all
3:04
looking and and feeling and reports have
3:07
already come out and and there's been
3:08
other stuff. It just feels like there's
3:10
going to be eventually being a move and
3:12
it might like happen
3:13
I don't know. It might happen like right
3:14
after the Stanley Cup is awarded. Like
3:16
Gary doesn't want his his precious
3:19
Stanley Cup final to be distracted by
3:20
trades. So, we're going to like all
3:23
these teams are talking, all these GMs
3:24
are talking already that are not
3:26
playing.
3:27
Um and there might be a move just like
3:29
immediately the day after. So, and it
3:31
could be that with the Flyers and the
3:32
Leafs. So, we're going to go through
3:33
some like possible scenarios, but it
3:35
just feels like the writing is on the
3:37
wall that this is going to happen. Um
3:40
again, we don't know anything. We're
3:41
just a little bloggers on on YouTube. Uh
3:44
broadstreethockey.com, read it. But it
3:46
just feels like there's just going to be
3:47
something that's happening and that's
3:48
what we're going to go with. Um
3:51
So, really the the Leaf situation,
3:53
obviously no one pays attention to the
3:55
Leafs too, but all though we're like
3:56
forced to
3:58
um just by paying attention to hockey is
3:59
that the Leaf situation is that they
4:01
have Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll
4:03
set up in the NHL.
4:05
So, that's their NHL tandem. They led
4:08
the league in save percentage just
4:10
in 24-25.
4:12
Um bonker num- bonker numbers.
4:15
And they basically have another third
4:20
mΓ©nage Γ trois
4:22
I'm French.
4:23
Um
4:24
Dennis Hildeby, another goalie,
4:26
with a 914 save percentage. Um
4:30
in his 20 games, which is pretty pretty
4:31
good for pretty good. They'd be really
4:33
good on the Flyers. Um
4:35
He appears ready to be an NHL regular.
4:37
So, whether that's you say that's a as a
4:39
backup or a tandem goalie, he is just
4:41
24,
4:43
so it's just like
4:44
I don't know if you can trust that guy.
4:46
Um and then additionally, there's a
4:48
fourth guy, um Artur Akhtyamov.
4:53
Probably butchered that name, sorry. Um
4:56
He is starting for the Mar- Marlies in
4:58
the playoffs in the Calder Cup final
4:59
right now.
5:00
So, their AHL team,
5:03
they decided to not even go with
5:04
Hildeby. Hildeby's down there, and
5:06
they're not even going with him. They're
5:06
going up with this Russian guy that's
5:08
also 24. Um and they're going with him
5:12
instead, and they're trusting him either
5:14
it's because he was with the Marlies and
5:15
like rewarding him because he was
5:17
with the team longer or Hildeby was in
5:19
the NHL during Stolarz's injury. Um
5:23
That we'll get to, but
5:25
whether it's Oh god.
5:28
Whether it's that situation or
5:30
just something else,
5:32
they're they're trusting him over
5:33
Hildeby right now. So, it's just like
5:35
this group of four that and like
5:37
Akhtyamov might be an NHL regular next
5:39
season, but he's still unlike Hildeby,
5:41
he's he's exempt from waivers still, so
5:44
they could send him down and and
5:46
continue. So, they don't have to trade
5:47
him or they don't have to trade a goalie
5:50
to fit him in.
5:51
Um
5:53
So, this whole situation
5:54
for any team that needs a goalie and and
5:56
I think the Flyers are just kind of the
5:58
one that really makes the most sense.
6:00
For any team that needs a goalie though,
6:01
like they're probably eyeing up Toronto.
6:03
But now the Flyers have to make the
6:04
right call. They have to make the right
6:06
decision of which goalie to take because
6:07
there have been reports that the
6:09
Leafs are willing to trade any of
6:11
Anthony Stolarz, Joseph Woll, or Dennis
6:13
Hildeby
6:15
to to make this work. So, to like to
6:17
solve this issue.
6:19
So, if they're willing to trade anyone
6:20
it's basically the Flyers have a choice
6:22
to it's like a like a you're starting a
6:24
PokΓ©mon game and you're choosing a
6:25
starter.
6:27
Goalie, whatever. Um
6:30
So, they have to make a choice of like
6:31
in different values and different
6:33
scenarios and different ages and
6:34
different contracts. They have to make
6:35
the right choice of which goalie to
6:37
take. So, honestly let's just start with
6:39
Dennis Hildeby. So, Hil- Hildeby
6:40
obviously like we said 24
6:43
20 games this past season 914 save
6:45
percentage. Playing pretty pretty well,
6:47
which would raise his value even more.
6:51
And he is 24 years old and he's making
6:54
less than a million dollars for the next
6:55
two seasons.
6:57
And he's like he's going to be UFA after
6:59
he has one year left and an RFA and then
7:02
a UFA after that. So, his like
7:04
your team control is pretty good and
7:05
he's very very cheap. So, like
7:07
if a team is caps dropped, I meant the
7:10
Oilers,
7:11
um you'd probably be willing to like pay
7:13
a lot for him. Um
7:16
But for the Flyers it it the cap's not
7:18
an issue, the contract's not an issue.
7:19
They could be paying him five million
7:20
dollars for two years, it doesn't matter
7:21
really unless like the Flyers make a
7:23
crazy big move.
7:25
Um
7:26
So, with Hildeby it would be betting on
7:29
him being better than Ersson and wanting
7:32
to get a young player in that as well.
7:35
Which you could make sense for Hildeby
7:39
because then if he's 24, say he's good
7:42
for five more seasons, then you're
7:46
hoping that Zeb Ragland or Carson
7:48
Bjarnson, hopefully by that end of the
7:49
five seasons, overtakes him and becomes
7:51
the starter. And then you can trade
7:53
Hildebyr or let him walk in free agency
7:55
or whatever. Um
7:58
so
7:59
having a player that young, and it could
8:01
have been Arvidsson,
8:04
could have been Arvidsson,
8:05
but it's not.
8:07
So, having a player younger than Vladar
8:09
is right now kind of sets them up for
8:11
like this like shifting timeline of
8:13
starting goalies where like Hildeby
8:15
could be really good. And Hildeby like
8:17
Hildeby probably like wants the
8:18
challenge of being
8:20
a more regular player and potentially in
8:22
a tandem. So, if Vladar next season
8:23
doesn't
8:25
is like hitting the career high of 51
8:27
starts or whatever he did, um
8:30
kind of he sets back and he and injuries
8:32
are a problem or say if his performance
8:34
issues like fatigue starting to hit,
8:36
um
8:37
then Hildeby could step up and and
8:38
probably start like 35, 40 games next
8:41
season and and not really that be a big
8:43
problem.
8:44
So, what's the value? The value in him,
8:46
honestly, I could see it being around a
8:48
third-round pick or like a third and a
8:50
fourth.
8:51
And
8:52
it's just not that much because goalies
8:53
just aren't don't go from for a crazy
8:56
amount. Linus Ullmark, when he went from
8:57
Boston to Ottawa, got a a late
8:59
first-round pick. I believe it was like
9:00
22nd overall or something. Or 20
9:04
28th or something cuz the Boston drafted
9:06
Dean LeTourneau, the big ass center. Um
9:10
with that pick. So, like I So, I think
9:12
it was 25th or something. I don't know.
9:14
I don't remember really, but
9:15
um
9:17
so it was a late first and like and like
9:19
a Mark Kastelic, which is like a grinder
9:21
guy, and um Jonas Korpisalo, which is
9:24
just like here you Boston, here's a
9:25
backup goalie that we're paying a bunch
9:27
because it's a bad contract. So, it's
9:28
basically negative value. Um
9:31
so it's basically like a late first. And
9:32
that's that's Ullmark after winning a
9:34
Vezina.
9:35
So, we're talking about a 24-year-old
9:37
who played 20
9:39
20 games in the NHL and before that
9:41
played 12 and that's his NHL experience
9:43
and it's pretty good so far.
9:46
Then we're talking about like a third
9:47
and a fourth. Like
9:48
an example of another of a another
9:50
similar trade was Arturs Silovs
9:53
going from Vancouver to Pittsburgh last
9:54
season, last summer rather.
9:57
Um and he went for I think it was a
9:59
fourth-round pick and Corey Chase
10:01
Stillman.
10:02
I want to get that right. Um which is
10:04
like a wash up like
10:06
former first-round pick guy. Um
10:08
And he went for a fourth and like and he
10:10
was playing in the NHL and like it was a
10:11
similar situation because Silovs didn't
10:13
like wasn't exempt from waivers anymore.
10:16
Um so, Vancouver needed to choose
10:17
between Demko,
10:18
um Lankinen and Silovs.
10:22
Obviously, they made their choice, but
10:24
um
10:25
so, it it's it's a similar situation and
10:29
if it was just a fourth-round pick, I'd
10:30
like a third for like the contract and
10:32
more experience than like Silovs and
10:35
just a general like potentially a higher
10:37
ceiling.
10:38
More certainty possibly, you could say.
10:41
Um
10:42
but like Silovs just went out like he
10:44
won a Calder Cup with in Abbotsford. So,
10:46
maybe that was like a lot the value's a
10:48
different thing. Value's different. Like
10:50
you can't say
10:52
it's never apples to apples though with
10:53
trade value. So,
10:55
um
10:56
yeah, like it's it's difficult to say
10:59
cuz like teams could be coming bidding
11:00
and like and would be like well, I'll
11:02
I'll give my second. Like Edmonton could
11:03
come and be like I'll give him a
11:04
second-round pick for Hill to be or
11:05
whatever and then suddenly the price
11:06
goes up and
11:08
fully might be out. Um
11:10
so, that's that's the case for Hill to
11:12
be. And honestly, like I wouldn't mind
11:13
it at all. Um but the
11:15
the other player that you they could
11:17
potentially have is Antti Raanta, a
11:19
familiar face of course. Um
11:22
He would theoretically be fairly
11:25
inexpensive in a trade, probably less
11:27
for certainly less than Hill to be
11:28
despite him being more experienced and
11:31
having that, but he is a 32-year-old who
11:34
just went from
11:36
leading this league in save percentage
11:38
to
11:40
only playing a certain amount of games
11:41
and having a
11:43
Let me see.
11:44
He's having an 893 save percentage in
11:47
just 26 games because of injury and
11:49
everything. So, like
11:50
we're talking about a fairly big
11:51
drop-off, but but he would still be
11:54
a big improvement on Ersson.
11:56
Um
11:57
but
11:58
and then the kicker really is that he is
12:01
just starting a four-year contract
12:02
extension with a AAV of 3.75 million.
12:06
So,
12:08
you're committing for Ersson for until
12:09
he's 36 years old
12:11
on on that deal. And then if you sign
12:13
Vladar also for the suspected five-year
12:15
deal, you're talking about locking into
12:17
Vladar and Stolarz for
12:19
four year four years at least.
12:22
They could be trades, you could buy them
12:23
out, whatever. But like that that's like
12:25
looking forward, that's your tandem.
12:27
Um
12:29
obviously he's a uh
12:31
he's an upgrade on Ersson, but then I
12:32
don't think that is really smart looking
12:35
forward cuz then you're locking into
12:37
your tandem so much
12:39
like for multiple years and then that
12:41
really limits like completely could
12:43
could create a log jam
12:45
um and just could get messy cuz Stolarz
12:47
like injury history and everything like
12:49
that. But maybe he gets better when he's
12:51
just a backup, but like
12:52
again, what could be the trade value be?
12:54
Like if if it's a four fourth-round pick
12:56
or something, then
12:59
maybe you could say be like, "Okay, like
13:01
here's your guy." They got him for
13:03
cheap. Like he just led the league in
13:05
save percentage two years ago.
13:07
Um
13:08
Try for that, but it's it's difficult to
13:12
sense that the Flyers would do that,
13:14
especially when
13:16
Joseph Woll is sitting right there. And
13:17
they there have been reports earlier um
13:19
from Anthony DiMarco and David Pagnotta
13:21
that um the Flyers are interested in
13:24
Joseph Woll. There hasn't been other
13:25
ones, but um
13:27
28-year-old Joseph Woll uh on a contract
13:30
for two more seasons at 3.66 million.
13:33
So, a little bit under the Vladar's
13:35
number.
13:36
Um
13:37
and he has really just been the backbone
13:38
of Toronto's goaltending the last couple
13:40
seasons. While Vladar has like maybe had
13:41
higher ceilings,
13:43
injuries have kind of caught up to him
13:45
and Woll has really just like
13:47
taken the load and he's just like been
13:49
super consistent. He has through the
13:51
last three seasons a 904 save
13:53
percentage. Um and in the last two
13:55
seasons he's appeared in 42 and 39 games
13:59
um
13:59
respectively through the last two
14:00
seasons. So,
14:02
it basically like he is an above average
14:04
goaltender, especially in this era uh
14:06
with like your league average save
14:08
percentage is like 390. I forget what it
14:11
is. He's like or sorry, not 390. 897 or
14:14
something like that.
14:15
Yeah, we're talking about a 904 like 10
14:17
mark like a good amount above that and
14:20
good enough to consider him above
14:23
average, I guess theoretically. He's
14:25
above average, but or technically.
14:27
I can't talk words, but like the um
14:30
the thing with Woll is like he is young
14:32
enough cuz he's basically just like a
14:34
year younger than Vladar
14:36
to really run with this and be more of a
14:38
tandem. So, acquiring Woll would be more
14:41
like
14:42
we see Vladar
14:44
not having this um team MVP season again
14:49
and Woll is there as a big, big, massive
14:52
security blanket. Again, what could that
14:54
say about
14:56
maybe Vladar's more like morale? Like,
15:00
would it bring him down a little bit?
15:01
That's tough to say. Like, that's more
15:03
managerial stuff that the Dany Brisebois
15:04
will have to figure out, but
15:06
if we're talking about
15:08
for two seasons that they have Woll and
15:10
then he's a UFA, obviously.
15:12
Um
15:13
then like those two seasons are a
15:15
perfect opportunity for one of
15:17
Zavgorodniy or Bjarnason to hopefully
15:19
will know by then
15:21
if they're on the right path or not.
15:22
Zavgorodniy, say he spends another year
15:25
in the KHL,
15:26
um performs well, and then comes over
15:28
next summer. And then that's 1 year of
15:30
him in the AHL potentially
15:33
continuing with Wall and Vladar, and in
15:35
the AHL, say he has like a 925
15:38
save percentage. Like he's looking
15:39
pretty good. He's like 22 years old at
15:42
that time after that season.
15:44
That could be the time that you make an
15:46
easy switch, and Wall's a UFA, and say
15:48
you Vladar's still under contract cuz
15:50
they signed him to an extension this
15:51
summer,
15:53
then Zavgorodniy is your backup,
15:56
Vladar's backup. He takes over for Wall,
15:58
starts 30 games a season or whatever, 25
16:00
to 30,
16:01
and then
16:02
slowly increase his workload.
16:04
Suddenly he's the Flyers starter and a
16:06
pretty good one at 24, 25. Like that is
16:08
a timeline that is so easy to see. And
16:11
if we're talking about trading a
16:13
second-round pick for Wall, cuz I think
16:15
he would be the most
16:17
highly sought-after and highly
16:19
valued goalie of the bunch in Toronto,
16:22
um then
16:24
I feel like that's worth it, especially
16:26
when it's like Vladar, say like he has a
16:28
906 again or whatever, like and then
16:31
Wall has about the same. If we're
16:32
talking about consi-
16:34
considerably increasing the Flyers
16:36
goaltending from still being below 900
16:38
because they were with
16:40
pairing into Ersson's numbers and those
16:42
starts that he made, um
16:45
then
16:46
if we're talking about that, that's a
16:47
massive massive upgrade. And then we're
16:49
talking about potentially even more,
16:51
just like
16:52
in the future we're talking about just
16:53
so much
16:55
more wins, more success, more like
16:57
stability. Say Vladar's injured, they go
16:59
in the playoffs, Wall's right there.
17:01
Like it it's or vice versa, Wall takes
17:04
over the starter job or something. Like
17:05
Vladar, there's just security and
17:07
there's safety and there's
17:09
nothing really to be worried about. And
17:11
if we're talking about a second-round
17:12
pick, say even next year, second-round
17:14
pick, a 2027 second-round pick,
17:16
then like
17:17
we're laughing. We're It's just like for
17:19
that amount of
17:22
like just certainty, I feel like it's
17:24
worth it and I think that's really it.
17:27
Um
17:28
this just feels like a like a
17:29
partnership made in heaven. The Flyers
17:31
and Leafs just making a trade, whether
17:33
it's for whatever one of these goalies,
17:36
um
17:37
I feel like Woll is like we've already
17:38
seen reports of course with that.
17:42
Um but like there's a
17:44
Sorry, someone's talking outside my
17:46
window.
17:46
Um there What was I going to say?
17:49
I'm leaving this in.
17:51
There've already been reports of Woll,
17:53
but um
17:55
Oh my god. Sorry, this is crazy.
17:58
Um
17:59
there've already been reports of Woll
18:00
and it just seems [clears throat] like
18:02
the timeline fits and the age and
18:05
um everything to consider and the
18:06
contract and everything is just like
18:09
they'd rather just Would you rather have
18:11
a
18:11
Hildeby for a third or Woll for a
18:13
second? Like that's a a debate, but it's
18:16
like
18:17
you take your guy that's been a regular
18:20
like starter in the NHL for one of the
18:23
better teams cuz he was the starter for
18:25
those good Toronto teams.
18:27
Um
18:28
Yeah, you you could kind of just take it
18:29
and run with it and then you're good in
18:31
goal then. So I feel like that's just
18:33
like
18:34
just a partnership made in heaven.
18:35
Helps them in the future, helps them
18:37
now.
18:38
It just makes more sense. And with that,
18:39
you can read more about this on
18:41
broadstreethockey.com. Like, subscribe
18:43
this video, please. It helps us everyone
18:44
out around here, around this channel. Um
18:47
Check around the channel for other
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videos and everything like that, but
18:49
please go on the website. That's where
18:50
kind of our thing is and um we're not
18:53
owned by some like crazy corporation.
18:55
We're actually all just helping out a
18:56
little
18:57
family of bloggers and everything like
18:58
that. So, um yeah, just hang out and
19:00
enjoy everything and check out the
19:03
website.
19:04
BSH forever.
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