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Dallas Stars vs. Edmonton Oilers Western Conference Final | THW 2024 NHL Playoff Preview Show
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May 23, 2024
In the latest 2024 NHL Playoff Preview show, host Matthew Zator welcomes in Jacob Billington and Jacob Strozyk to set up the Western Conference Final of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs between the Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers. 0:00 Intro 1:14 Stars' Journey to the WCF 3:47 Oilers' Journey to the WCF 5:36 Stars Players to Watch 8:44 Oilers Players to Watch 11:07 Keys to Victory For the Oilers 12:19 Keys to Victory For the Stars 16:21 X-Factors 20:49 Series MVP 22:53 Predictions For The Series Conference Finals Playoff Hub - https://thehockeywriters.com/2024-stanley-cup-playoffs-conference-finals-hub/ Subscribe to The Hockey Writers Substack - https://thehockeywriters.substack.com/subscribe Follow The Hockey Writers: Twitter - https://twitter.com/TheHockeyWriter Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/thehockeywriters_
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0:00
Hello everybody and welcome into another playoff preview show here at the Hockey Writers
0:07
And this time we're going to the Western Conference Final. We did the Eastern Conference Final
0:11
It's already out on the YouTube channel if we want to check that out. But we're going to do Dallas Stars Edmonton Oilers into the, you know
0:18
Edmonton Oilers, two out of the last three years are now in the Western Conference Final
0:22
We'll see if they can get by this time. They didn't the last time got kicked by the eventual Stanley Cup champions
0:28
so I you know at Jacob Strosick Jacob Billington here with me
0:32
talking Oilers and Stars Strozik is going to take over the stars
0:36
and Billington will take the Emington Oilers so gentlemen how's it going
0:41
good happy to be here excited to watch some really fun playoff hockey
0:47
I think we're in that zone now yeah this series should be good
0:52
I don't know there are some people are saying the stars are going to just steamroll the Oilers and but
0:58
You know, the Oilers have some pretty high fire, you know, firepower
1:03
The two top scores in the playoffs right now are dry-saddle-McDavid. So they're going to be tough
1:09
So we'll see. We'll see what happens. So I'll start. Well, let's just get going and start with the Dallas stars because they were the first ones going through
1:18
I beat the Colorado Avalanche. It was a little iffy at times, but the stars kind of figured it out
1:25
The Avalanche came back a couple times. they were a bit of the comeback team
1:30
but then once they lost Nchuschen I think they kind of fell
1:34
I mean he was one of the leading scores in the playoffs and still is and now he's done for the next six months
1:40
I believe so Jacob run us through the Dallas Stars series against the avalanche how they got
1:46
to the Western Conference final yeah I'm not sure if they would really be
1:51
steamrolling through anything because you're right it was a little bit shaky against the avalanche
1:57
because they they're still a very solid team, still a very deep team
2:01
But against the Avalanche, they were still very good. I can't say that they were a bad team by any means
2:07
They still had everything kind of going very well for them. They scored three goals in the first game, five goals, the second one, four, five, three
2:16
and then they finished off with two goals. So, you know, the offense was doing pretty well. Defense was okay
2:21
Jake Ottinger looked pretty good. He had a couple of shaky moments. But all in all, they were looking solid
2:27
but again, they weren't looking dominant like people were probably expecting them to
2:31
So, you know, there's, you could probably say there's a bit of a chink in the armor
2:34
So it's maybe a point of vulnerability there as far as the stars are concerned
2:41
But it's, it's nothing that they can't handle the avalanche or a high flying offense team
2:46
So they're going to be dealing with that type of problem again here with the Oilers
2:51
It's all offense all day. But it's multiplied 2.11 dealing with two of the best players in the world
2:57
So it's can they handle that type of onslaught that's really going to be flying at them at the fastest possible speed here
3:06
So it's it's really going to come down to how well are they going to adjust to the same type of play, but a different pace of play
3:18
Because it's similar, but it's not the same, if you know what I mean. Yeah
3:22
Yeah, I mean, they're going now up against the next. They played against Nathan McKinnon, and now they're going up against Connerick David, two ridiculously fast players
3:32
And different types of speed, though, between the two guys. I mean, they're both, they both are probably two of the best skaters in the NHL
3:39
But they're different in speeds. It's hard to explain how they are, but they are
3:45
It's different. So over to you, Jacob, about the Edmonton Oilers. And, I mean, yeah, Connor McDavid was, has been really good
3:54
he hasn't scored a ton though he's only got i think two goals in the playoffs he's got a bunch of assists
3:58
but it's dry siddle it's a dry saddle show right now he's he's been scoring at a pretty big
4:03
clip uh power play of course has been ridiculous for the oilers um run us through how they did against
4:09
the canucks i mean they there was ify they could have got eliminated in game six but then ran off
4:15
two straight wins um to move on here yeah it was a really interesting series and i mean first of all
4:22
you mentioned that they have the two top scores and in the playoffs. They actually have the four top scores in the playoffs with Evan Bouchard and Ryan
4:29
Nugent Hopkins in there as well. It's just absolutely insane. So their offense is the key to victory for them
4:36
Like they're, that's how they beat the Canucks, even though their offense wasn't as kind of like forefront and center as people
4:43
were expecting to see, especially with a rookie goaltender in Nets. We were just talking about that
4:49
But it was, it was a tough series. And I don't think that people looked at that
4:54
series and said that Edmonton deserved to win that 100%. I think it was that by the time it got
4:59
to game seven, it was a coin flip. And Stuart Skinner ultimately showed up and did his job. And that's
5:05
something that they're really going to need here as well. So it wasn't an easy series for them
5:11
They had the offense from their top guys need a little bit more out of the depth. But other than that
5:16
they're kind of rolling right now after those two wins in a row. I think that they're in a good
5:21
position to be headed into this series. I, you know, everyone's saying with the Dallas stars that they're one of the deepest
5:28
teams in the NHL and they are. I mean, they've got, they've got four lines that can come at you
5:32
They, they got some young guns. They got some veterans. One guy that hasn't really stood out to me is Joe Pavelski yet
5:39
I mean, maybe he'll do it in this series, but he's usually really dominant in the playoffs
5:44
And I haven't really noticed him. It's been the Wyatt Johnston show. I mean, throughout
5:49
So let's move on to that, Jacob, some play. players to watch. Johnston definitely has been everything and everyone's been asked for since
5:57
I mean, even last year he was really good in the playoffs. And he's really young
6:02
Still, he's got seven goals so far. Is that the guy you're watching for sure
6:06
Or are you going to look at guys like Pavelski, like the more of the depth moving
6:11
through it? Even Miro Heiskenin on defense has been otherworldly to this playoff
6:16
So it should be a good matchup between defensemen, too, Bouchard against Heiskenen
6:21
I mean, yeah, you're always going to be looking at your top end scores for just about anything
6:25
And it's been the Wyatt Johnston show. He's been an absolute just dynamo
6:30
He been a big story type player throughout the entire playoffs for the stars the entire time So absolutely he somebody to watch But you know you want somebody like Joe Pavelski to be stepping up in this type of
6:44
a scenario. He's your veteran. He's one of your more reliable guys that you should be leaning on in this type of a scenario
6:50
Somebody like Matt Duchesne, who scored your big goals. He's somebody who could step up and do a little bit more
6:57
A little bit more down the lineup, you want to try and be relying on those, you know
7:02
older players to be doing those to be making veteran plays to be making those you know clutch uh to be in
7:11
those clutch situations and actually be contributing in those scenarios that you need them to so
7:16
having joe pevelsky step up and do something having uh having mat to shane step up and do a little
7:22
something having somebody like uh tyler sagan jump up he's been playing well he's uh he's got eight
7:27
points and he's a plus seven so he's been doing well having him do a little bit more on top of that jamie
7:32
Ben has also been doing well. He's got eight points so far. So the veterans that you would expect to be doing something are
7:39
and then there are others that you want to do a little bit more. It's going to become more of a factor in a series like this
7:44
You're going to need them to step up. And then your usual suspects, your Heiskin and your Robertson, your Johnson
7:50
they're already up there at the top, and they need to continue to perform up to the standard that you're expecting them to
7:58
Another guy just to shout is Chris Tanna, who's been really good defensively blocking shots like he always does
8:05
Unsung hero. Upwards of 22 plus minutes. I don't know if I expected him to be the big minute muncher in this series
8:13
but he's been and I've been, well, I always love Tannav. So I'm hoping that he just go, he signs with the Canucks in the off season and he'll come over here again
8:25
But yeah, he's talking minute muncher. That's high skin. He's at, I think it was 2802 was his average ice
8:30
time right now. He's playing. So it's ridiculous. So Evan Bouchard versus Miro Heiskin
8:38
and that should be a good matchup. They're both doing really well in the playoffs here
8:42
So moving on to that with the Oilers, Jacob, about, you know
8:46
like Evan Bouchard. You know, obviously we're going to talk, we're going to watch McDavid and Dryside
8:51
who've been really good. But like you mentioned, the depth has really weren't
8:57
wasn't very prominent against the Canucks. They were in the like, like game six and seven
9:02
They started to kind of looking like Evander Kane had had some goals
9:07
You're looking at Yanmark had a goal, I believe in game five
9:11
So they started to get a little bit, but who are you watching? Is that going to be the guys
9:15
the depth on the Oilers? Well, I think they're going to need to play big
9:19
I think it's not all about offense with those guys. That's kind of how the Oilers are built
9:24
The top guys are going to get offense. I mean, you look at Zach Hyman, his 11 goals are tied with
9:29
I think if you put Jason, Robertson, Tyler Sagan, Jamie Ben, Matt Dushan, all together
9:35
They have 11 goals. Zach Heiman has 11 goals. And then you can add Joe Pavelsky's one goal
9:40
And so those five really good players have one more goal than Zach Hyman
9:45
So the Oilers aren't going to be looking for their high end scoring to really make any change
9:51
They're doing their job. They need the bottom six to keep playing that because they did play well against Vancouver
9:56
They just weren't scoring much, which they could have used against Vancouver. but they just need to keep playing strong hockey and let the top guys figure it out
10:04
I mean, Evan Bouchard is the first defenseman in NHL history with 20 points headed into the third round
10:09
Like, that's absolutely insane. So just the bottom six playing defensive hockey and being trustworthy and reliable
10:18
I think that's all you really need from them. Yeah, I think that's true
10:23
I mean, it would be good to have some production from them too. Right. And, you know, especially in those tight games, which I think this series is probably
10:31
another tight series. It probably won't be any blowouts. Yeah, it's interesting how the Oilers have played better defensively in the last few games
10:41
of that series where they're blocking shots. They're playing really tough, you know, low, low shot type hockey, low event hockey, right
10:51
And that's something not known for the Oilers that defense. and goal ten, he's usually the problem
10:58
Goaltending is probably a question mark still, but we'll get to that. Let's go on to some keys to victory
11:05
And, I mean, I'll stay with you with the Oilers, Jacob, on how are the oilers going to get
11:11
through the stars? I mean, their power play has been probably going to be the biggest difference in this
11:16
series, but really can they rely on that to win? What are the keys to victory for them
11:23
I think there's only really one key to victory. and that's Stuart Skinner. Just that's, he has to play adequate hockey
11:32
That's it. Like, they don't need him to be like Igor Shasturkin or like, if you look at the stats
11:36
Joseph Wall, he has absolutely incredible numbers just in the couple of games that he played
11:41
in the first round. But like they don't need anything like that. They don't need to be the best goaltending team in the league
11:47
They just need, all right, you can make a couple saves here. That's all they need
11:52
And if he can do that, then I think the series is in the bag for the Oilers. that is the biggest thing because Skinner was pulled
11:59
Pickard played a couple really good games. But I don't think they want to rely on him
12:06
It's going to be Skinner. And especially against the guy like Ottinger
12:10
who's been really good in the playoffs here too and can definitely steal a series
12:15
So that's going to be key. What about the stars, Jacob, with them
12:21
I mean, Ottinger is obviously between the two goaltenders. He's the better one
12:25
Um, who's, what's going to be the key to victory for the stars in this one
12:30
It is locking down the sad excuse for the penalty kill. Because the, the oilers are the pinnacle of what a power play is
12:45
Yeah. Running at, I think it's like 38% or something ridiculous right now
12:49
They're almost at like 40%. And the stars, PK is at 69.2
12:55
percent. So put those two things together and it's a recipe for disaster. And I know you said that
13:02
there might not be blowouts, but I don't know if there might not be blowouts, but it's a recipe for
13:07
a barn burner Yeah Power plays left and right And if Stuart Skinner is you know letting in goals left and right it going to be barn burners So it going to be a difficult situation if the power play for Edmonton is rolling and the penalty kill for Dallas is not on par for any sort of thing
13:28
So they really need to lock down their penalty kill more than anything else and figure something out and literally something, anything, because sub 70% is just
13:41
unacceptable for a playoff hockey team. And for a team that is as well defensively structured as the stars
13:51
it's, it's embarrassing at this point for them to be running something like that
13:56
So they're going to get picked apart if at any point Edmonton is running a power play
14:01
And it's, if it happens early, we're going to be looking at three nothing
14:06
four nothing hockey games by the end of a first period. and that's just something that's supremely difficult to recover from
14:14
So, and that's probably the biggest factor for me is going to be special teams
14:18
If they get a power play, it's going to be huge because if they can get to Skinner early
14:23
it might help them. But at this point, it would just be to save themselves from if they ended up taking a penalty
14:28
themselves and being able to be like, all right, we scored power play goal ourselves
14:34
now we can take a penalty and it'll be one-one. So it's finding that balance
14:40
and figuring out how to not take penalty. Staying out of the box, I guess is the best solution for them at this point
14:46
I will chime in and just say a sub-70 PK percentage is terrible
14:50
But what does make up for it a little bit is they do have, I believe, two or three short-handed goals
14:55
So that helps a little bit. A little. The thing is with the Oilers, I mean
15:03
they seem to be able to score on almost every one of their power plays. They were in a little bit of a drought in the last couple games
15:09
where the Canucks were able to kill a bunch of them. They started figuring out different ways of how they were doing things
15:16
But they did score a power play goal in game seven. And the thing is, is if your team and the Canucks didn't score on the power play
15:25
and that's the thing. And if you have a bad power play and you take penalties against the oil
15:30
you're probably going to lose because they can score one. I think one in the Kings games, they won one, nothing
15:37
But the only goal they scored was on the power play. So it's a big key to their success
15:43
And yeah, that's the biggest thing to stay out of the box. It's hard to do
15:48
Even if you just think, oh, we only took two penalties, but we got scored on on both of them
15:52
So that doesn't really, it doesn't really help. So maybe that doesn't really help
15:56
The Oilers are averaging over a power play goal per game. They have 15 power play goals and 12 games
16:01
It's, yeah, just stay out of the box. That's probably the best advice if the stars, any team going against them
16:07
because their offense five on five isn't as strong. So, I mean, if you can stay out of the box
16:14
you're going to have a better chance of winning. I think that's any team, but against the oilers is the biggest thing
16:20
All right, let's move on to some X factors. I'll start with you with the Oilers, Jacob
16:24
on what's an X factor in this series for them? I already talked about the goaltending
16:30
so I'll kind of skip over that a little bit. But that is number one for sure
16:34
but that would just be repeating myself. just the stars staying hot
16:39
Over the last five games, Connor McDavid only had two assists. You need him to be a little bit better than that
16:44
Sorry, four assists. You need him to be a little bit better than that
16:48
I mean, four assists is nothing to complain about. And obviously when you got dry-sidal
16:52
I think he had eight points in his last five games against the Canucks
16:57
That's fantastic. I don't know. There's not really one glaring thing outside of the goaltending
17:03
I think it's just the top guys staying hot and maybe a couple like Evander Kane or Dylan Holloway kind of picking up a little bit of the extra slack and whatnot
17:12
But I already mentioned with the bottom six. They don't need to be lighting the lamp. They only had two goals in the last five games of that series
17:20
So you need maybe another one or two out of them. But it's really hard to complain about
17:26
They're blocking their shots. They're having good defensive coverage. They're doing fine
17:30
That bottom six is pretty good. So just a little bit of offense from the bottom six
17:35
I would say and goaltending. Yeah, the biggest X factor for the Oilers is the goaltending because they're, I mean, yes
17:42
Skinner played and won the last couple games, but it was not tested
17:47
So, I mean, it's really, he could have been bad if they would have gotten some shots on him
17:54
Who knows? So, yeah, that's a big thing. There's not, it's no real big confidence in either goaltender right now
18:00
And one has got to be good. And Skinner's going to be the one to start it for sure
18:05
All right, moving on to the stars. Who do you got? What do you got as the next factor here
18:12
I have to stick with the goaltending because it really is going to lie on the shoulders of Jay Cottinger
18:17
Can he be the last line of defense to really hold down the fort against the onslaught that's going to be coming his way
18:26
Because the defense is going to do as much as they can to box everybody out
18:30
Zach Hyman is going to be directly in his face every chance that he get
18:35
David's going to be flying up every possible direction that he can go
18:39
Drysidl is going to be, you know, peek in every backdoor opportunity he can
18:44
And every other possible combination you can think of going throughout the Edmonton
18:50
offense is going to be just peppering the net. And Ottinger has to be at his absolute best
18:58
So there can be, there can be no lapses. There can be no lazy moves by Ottinger
19:04
he has to be as sharp as he possibly can and turn into what were they called they were calling him duncan from the walrus commercial early on in the playoffs he's he's got to become the walrus once again and really just turn into that guy to to really shut everything down i'm not saying he's got to you know put up shutouts for you know uh all four wins but sub four goals i think can win them these games
19:34
because I'm not sure that they're going to be winning these games by scoring less than probably four goals against as high flying on offense as Edmonton as
19:48
I don think we going to be seeing two to one wins for a lot of this series I think it going to be four to three five to three five to six type games for a few of these
19:59
And him being up to his standard and making the saves when needed is really what's going
20:06
to be important because a lot of them are still going to go in, but it's the key ones
20:11
that need to stay out. Yeah, goaltending for both teams then looking at it
20:17
I mean, yeah, Antinjur is going to be probably. especially on the power play
20:20
If he's not good, I mean, I'm going to, and not be in a good spot
20:25
So, yeah, if Andre can be, I think everyone's hoping, if you're a Stars fan
20:30
that he becomes like he was against the flames that won a couple years ago
20:36
he was just, couldn't get anything by the guy. So, yeah, he can definitely do it
20:41
and he's shown. So we'll see what happens in this one. All right
20:46
Well, speaking of that, could be one of these guys. a series MVP for this
20:50
We'll start with you, Jacob, with the Oilers. It's going to be Leon Drysidler, Evan Bouchard
20:57
I just don't know which one. Yeah, I'll go Drysidl just because he'll score more goals
21:04
and probably some more clutch goals. But between the two of them, take your pick
21:08
And that's not even including the best player in the world, Connor McDavid. But yeah, if I had to put a $2 bet down, I would say Leon Drysidal
21:18
Yeah, well, he's definitely been an MVP so far in the playoffs
21:22
So, yeah, it's a great choice. What else to start? There's a lot of choices here
21:27
I mean, the obvious one could be Wyatt Johnston, but there's some other guys, too. Who do you have for the MVP
21:34
I'd still go with the low-hanging fruit. I think Johnson is the easy pick, and I think he's the right pick
21:39
Because with how much offense is going to have to run through in this series
21:44
he's going to be at the forefront of all of it. I think he's going to be a key contributor. I think he's going to be a big contributor
21:50
And I think a lot of the goals are still going to run through his stick
21:54
So I think some clutch goals are going to run through his stick as well
21:58
It's not just going to be a couple of filler goals going in here and there. I think he's going to be a big player showing up at a big time
22:06
And I think he's going to be very noticeable when you really need him to be
22:12
Yeah, I think Johnston is definitely the easy choice. I want to keep, I'm going to keep saying Logan Stancoven because
22:17
I said one of these. We all want him to be that good. He's going to be the MVP. He's been really good
22:23
I mean, he's had, has, I believe, I don't know how he just has one goal
22:27
I think he just has one. He's got three. He's got three goals. Three. Three and three goals
22:31
He's three goals. All right. He's got three goals. So that's pretty good
22:35
He's seventh on the team in scoring. There you go. And he's, he's been noticeable almost every game
22:40
So that's, I wanted to see him against Connor Garland, because he's a lot like Garland
22:45
It would have been a great match to see both of those guys. playing against each other, but we'll see it eventually
22:52
All right, predictions on this series. I'll stay with you, Jacob, on who do you think is going to win this and how many games
23:02
I think I'm going to go with a more bold prediction. I normally go for longer series and try and play it safe
23:11
but I'm going to go bold, and I'm going to say Stars and Five. I think they take it to them hard
23:16
I think they take it to him fast. And I think Stuart Skinner buckles under pressure
23:22
And I think he gets lit up. And then they go to Pickard after game two
23:27
And they just lose faith in him. And I think they take it in five
23:32
All right. That was my prediction on our prediction bowl that I put
23:37
So, yeah, I think that's the same for me. What do you got, Jacob, for this one
23:44
I agree, five game series. but for the oilers. I think I, and I put this on Twitter already
23:50
so I'm not just pulling something out of my butt here. I can't confirm
23:55
You did say it like four hours ago. Yeah. I don't think that the Dallas stars have nearly enough offense
24:01
Unless like Rupa Hans, Logan, Stan, Coven, Matt Dushane, Joe Pavelski, one of these guys really wakes up and starts picking up the slack
24:09
I don't think that their offense is even close to good enough
24:13
And I think that the Oilers are just going to cook them. and just outscore every problem that they have
24:19
Like, Oattinger's been good. He hasn't been incredible. They do have the good defensive play
24:24
Like, I really like S. Lundell. I really like Thomas Harley and obviously
24:28
Heisken and Tana, who we already talked about. I do like the Dallas Ars defense. I just don't think that they have nearly enough offensively
24:35
As of right now, at least, they do have the potential, like I said, if one of those guys wakes up
24:38
or even like Mason-Marchman, who hasn't been doing very much, if one of these guys wakes up
24:42
and really starts producing, maybe that'll change my mind. but as of right now I'm going oilers in five
24:47
all right well short series we'll see we'll see what happens if and probably
24:52
it's going to be a seven game series then now that we've said this 100
24:56
triple overtime game seven yeah yeah the east series will be like a sweep because we predicted
25:02
long series in that one and it's going to be Joe Pavelsky to score the triple
25:07
overtime game winner because we just correct for not having any goals yeah exactly
25:13
I'm surprised because he's usually really good in the playoffs. And he hasn't really woken up yet
25:20
But don't count that guy out. He's probably going to step up
25:26
All right. Well, that's another playoff preview here. We'll see how the series goes
25:31
I don't know. I think it could be a fun one to watch, even if it is a five game
25:35
I think it's still going to be fun. I'm not really sure if it's going to be a type series
25:40
or if it's going to be a high-scoring one, like the Flames Oilers back a couple years ago
25:45
could be that. Who knows? I mean, both teams can score. They've shown it
25:50
But lately they've been able to show that they can play defense, defensive games too
25:55
So it could go either way. We'll see. Make sure check out all of our stuff at the Hockeywriters.com
26:00
We've got a round three hub that has all the articles put into one
26:05
one spot. So take a look at that. We've got recaps after every game
26:09
It's getting down to there's only a game a day now. So, you know
26:14
I would watch hockey every day, but there's only one game. And that starts, well, started last night
26:21
But tonight, make sure checking out the Oilers and the stars. But until our next preview, which will be the Stanley Cup final, we'll see you then
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