0:00
welcome to science visualization Corner
0:03
today we're revealing a fascinating link
0:05
between voter behavior in presidential
0:07
elections and the housing market in
0:10
recent years US presidential elections
0:12
have become increasingly
0:14
unpredictable pollsters and analysts are
0:17
always on the lookout for new variables
0:18
to refine their forecasting models one
0:22
intriguing Factor has now come to light
0:24
thanks to Sherwood Clemens a Collegiate
0:26
assistant professor of real estate in
0:28
the Pamplin College of Business
0:31
Clemens explored a novel theory that the
0:33
performance of the residential real
0:35
estate market the country's largest
0:37
asset class affects voter
0:39
Behavior his idea rooted in the home
0:42
voter effect first coined by Dartmouth
0:44
College Professor William fishell
0:46
suggests that homeowners are more likely
0:48
to support policies or politicians they
0:50
believe will boost their property values
0:53
to test this Theory Clemens and his
0:55
co-authors analyzed 30 years of data
0:58
from the federal Housing Finance AG genc
1:00
housing price index their findings
1:03
published in the Journal of Real Estate
1:05
research revealed that counties with
1:07
better house price performance in the
1:08
four years leading up to an election are
1:10
more likely to vote for the incumbent
1:12
party conversely counties with poorer
1:15
house price performance are more likely
1:17
to switch their vote to the challenging
1:19
party in simpler terms if real estate is
1:23
thriving counties tend to stick with the
1:25
current party in power the study also
1:28
found that this effect is strong in the
1:30
Years just before an election and in
1:32
counties with high housing price
1:34
performance one of the most surprising
1:37
discoveries was that counties which
1:38
flipped their votes to the incumbent did
1:40
not see positive returns in residential
1:42
real estate values in the next election
1:45
cycle this indicates that in terms of
1:48
property values it might be better to
1:50
switch parties every four years rather
1:52
than chase after positive returns by
1:55
incumbent so what does this mean for the
1:58
2024 presidential election clemens's
2:01
research suggests that homeowners may
2:03
want to reconsider their strategies as
2:06
the desired outcomes don't always align
2:09
expectations if you found this video
2:11
interesting don't forget to like share
2:14
and subscribe for more insightful
