What If California Runs Out Of Water Entirely? The Megadrought
1K views
Mar 31, 2025
California is back under severe drought conditions. With its largest reservoirs starting to empty out, residents and farms are going to start feeling the water pinch unless something changes soon. But while many states are currently suffering from the Mega Drought, California does have one ace up its sleeve: desalination. So what if California runs out of water entirely?
View Video Transcript
0:00
California is running out of water. After enduring a mega drought that has persisted in some form for
0:05
well over a decade, reservoirs are running dry and groundwater is being depleted. Unfortunately
0:09
for the rest of the United States, California also serves as one of the country's prime
0:14
agricultural producers. So what if California runs out of water entirely? Today's episode is
0:19
sponsored by NordVPN, the easiest and fastest way to browse securely. Now oftentimes I need to dig
0:25
deep in order to research for my videos. And unfortunately, not every website out there is
0:31
secure and that can leave my information vulnerable. But with NordVPN, I can go wherever I want with
0:36
peace of mind. NordVPN allows you to connect to over 5,600 servers around the world with just a
0:42
single click. And if that's not enough, they also have an auto-connect option to ensure that you are
0:47
browsing safely and securely. And with the added feature of threat protection, you're double secure
0:54
Beyond security, NordVPN servers are simply blazingly fast, allowing you to serve anywhere you want
1:00
with no speed degradation. Are you traveling abroad but don't wanna miss out
1:03
on the latest episode of your favorite TV show? NordVPN's got you covered
1:08
Plus, as part of this sponsorship, you can get four months of NordVPN for free
1:12
with a two-year plan. Just visit nordvpn.com slash wigeography to get in on this deal
1:20
And if you end up not liking it, Simply cancel within 30 days and you can get a full refund
1:25
So what are you waiting for? NordVPN provides the most comprehensive security of any VPN platform out there
1:32
Once again, visit nordvpn.com slash WI Geography to take advantage of this exclusive offer
1:44
Hello and welcome to What If Geography, where we try and answer the great geographic what if questions of the world
1:50
I'm your host, Jeff Gibson, and today we're going back to California to talk about water
1:55
If you didn't know, California is drying out, and that has huge implications for the rest of the country
2:01
But before we get into today's episode, if you enjoy my What If Geography channel
2:06
be sure to check out the What If Geography podcast where we dive way deeper into the subjects that you love
2:11
Our first episodes are on this exact same subject. The podcast is a lot of fun to make, and from what I can see, people seem to enjoy them
2:18
You can listen right here on YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts
2:29
California is an eclectic state geographically, and it hasn't always been as dry as it is today
2:34
While it is home to famously dry locations such as the Mojave Desert, Death Valley, and Joshua Tree National Park
2:40
it also has lush forests snowy mountain peaks and many large rivers And it home to the Central Valley which has some of the most fertile and bountiful agricultural land in the world It for this reason that California drying out is so scary But while it might seem like we
2:55
been hearing about a drought in California for a long time, it's really only been in recent decades
2:59
that it's started to really affect overall water access. And this is mostly due to the fact that
3:04
California has some of the most complicated, arbitrary, and downright confounding water rights
3:09
laws. These laws were also created during an unusually wet period of California's history
3:14
So not only did California hand out water rights with obscene amounts attached, but they also did it during a time that simply wasn't ever truly reflective of California's
3:22
water table. And much of the use of the water comes from agriculture. Agriculture is a huge
3:27
part of the California economy due to the Central Valley being home to some of the most fertile soil
3:31
in the entire world. Beginning in the mid-1800s, California began to aggressively irrigate its
3:37
farmlands. In 1850, there was almost no irrigation whatsoever, but by 1899, over 12% of all of
3:43
California's land had some form of irrigation. Of course, today, almost the entirety of California's
3:49
agriculture is irrigated in some way. But again, none of this was really a problem during the time
3:54
as California was going through an unusually long wet and rainy period. Between 1864 and 1924
4:00
there was not a single recorded drought in the entire state of California. From 1924 on
4:05
droughts became a much more frequent occurrence for the state. Between 1976 and 2017, California
4:10
recorded four prolonged droughts, with the latest being the longest and most severe drought to date
4:15
During this drought, California began enacting some pretty extreme restrictions such as instituting
4:20
a mandatory 25% reduction in water use. This was also the time when California infamously mandated
4:26
that restaurants couldn't automatically serve water, but rather could only serve after a customer
4:31
asked. All told, during this particular drought, over 100 million trees are estimated to have died
4:36
with 62 million of those trees perishing in 2016 alone. Luckily for California, 2017 brought a
4:43
record amount of rain, bringing much needed relief for the state, but it wouldn't last long
4:47
Today, California is back under drought conditions in every single county. While 2017 did bring some
4:53
relief, the entire western half of the United States is still suffering from the mega drought
4:57
which shows no signs of abating anytime soon. But before we get into what California might look like
5:02
if it runs out of water entirely, if you're enjoying this video, hit that subscribe button
5:07
That way you'll be notified every time I release a new geography video
5:15
While normal droughts come and go, a mega drought will stick around for decades
5:19
This doesn't necessarily mean that it's severe or exceptional drought, but rather that even when there is some periods of relief
5:25
the overall conditions still remain in some form of drought. The southwestern part of the United States has been in some form of drought for well over two decades at this point And this causes a lot of problems While rain might come during some points of the year if a region isn getting the water it grown accustomed to then the overall drought conditions
5:41
remain. This is what is primarily driving the record wildfires that California is suffering
5:46
through every single year. With soil moisture at an all-time low, trees and shrubbery are dying out
5:51
quicker, and they become more susceptible to natural and human-made fires. And while any old
5:56
mega drought is bad, this one is exceptionally terrible. Researchers have concluded that the
6:01
mega drought hitting California today is the worst since the year 800. In fact, it's theorized that
6:06
the mega drought today would not be as bad or even be a mega drought at all had we not created the
6:11
conditions for a warming planet. You see, when your average temperature increases, you're setting up
6:15
conditions where trees, plants, animals, and humans are all drawing in a little more water and moisture
6:21
which means soil moisture that might have been sufficient 40 years ago is no longer sufficient
6:25
today because it's hotter out. Just like you drink more water when you're hot, though do the trees
6:29
Today, we're in a situation where, 22 years in, the current mega drought is showing no signs of
6:34
abating. Historically, after a couple decades, most mega droughts end. This is very bad because
6:39
as we can see by California's increasingly diminishing lakes and reservoirs, the state
6:43
is running out of water. Let's not mince words here. California is in a very bad way with respects
6:52
to its water table. Lake Oroville, California's largest reservoir, is currently sitting at about
6:56
55% of its average fill for this time of year. And with lower precipitation expected through the
7:01
winter season, it doesn't appear that there will be any dramatic changes in rain for the remainder
7:05
of the year. And with the Colorado River also drying out, which supplies Southern California
7:10
with much of its water, California could be looking at a dry and dusty future, which would
7:14
not bode well for the rest of the country. You see, California currently provides most of the
7:18
United States food. That might seem odd, given that much of the country is, in fact, farmland
7:24
but California has a uniquely rich soil and climate where it can grow basically anything
7:28
at almost any time of the year. California produces 100% of the world's almonds, 90
7:33
of all U.S.-grown avocados, and 90% of all U.S.-made wine. All told, the state is responsible
7:39
for the vast majority of the fruits and vegetables you eat. If California ran out of water entirely
7:44
produce prices would skyrocket as other regions of the United States would be forced to try to adapt
7:49
But beyond agriculture, California cities would have a very serious problem. Today, California is home to 39 million people
7:57
It is, by far, the largest state in the country in terms of population
8:01
Over 20 million of those people live within the southern portion of the state, primarily within the LA, San Diego, or Riverside metro areas
8:08
That's a lot of people existing within an already naturally dry area
8:12
that has been artificially supplied with water over the last century. If California did run out of water that region will probably be hit first and hardest and it will inevitably lead to mass migrations out of California Climate refugees from California would undoubtedly move northward to the Pacific Northwest where despite its own drought issues is perceived as having an
8:30
abundance of water available. All that's to say, if Portland and Seattle aren't planning for a wave
8:35
of thirsty climate refugees today, they really should start. That is, unless California has an
8:40
ace up its sleeve for dealing with the current water issues. California does have one thing going for it that most other mega drought-stricken areas don't
8:52
The ocean. The ocean is home to the vast majority of the water on the planet
8:55
but it's unusable for drinking or irrigation due to the fact that it's salt water, not fresh water
9:00
But there's now a proven method for extracting salt and converting ocean water into fresh water
9:05
Desalination. Desalination is not a new concept. And, in fact, California currently has 12 desalination facilities already in operation throughout the state
9:15
Combined, these plants pull in millions of gallons of water to supply a very thirsty state
9:20
One such facility, the Carlsbad Desalination Plant, supplies over 8% of San Diego County's total water
9:26
That's a significant source for a single facility. But while desalination seems to be the best and most obvious solution
9:33
there are some very big downsides to it. For one, desalination is very expensive
9:38
Just to build one of these facilities costs hundreds of millions of dollars, if not billions
9:43
This, combined with the enormous amount of energy it takes to desalinate water, creates some of the most expensive water on a per-gallon basis
9:50
If most of California's water came from desalination, it would no doubt lead to higher water prices overall
9:55
But beyond the expense, desalination creates a substance called brine, which is basically a heavier, sloshy salt mixture
10:02
And while it might seem like the easiest solution is just to throw the brine back into the ocean
10:06
it's unfortunately not that simple. When you put brine back into the ocean, it sinks to the ocean floor
10:11
and basically kills everything that exists down there. The other method of disposal is to bring it inland somewhere
10:17
But again, that requires a sophisticated logistic system which can drive up the cost and make water even more expensive
10:23
The point here is not to say that desalination can't be part of the overall solution, but it's definitely not the perfect solution
10:29
California will need a multi-pronged approach to its future around water, which includes desalination, but also with a heavy dose of conservation
10:36
The United States needs California to have an ample supply of water. California simply provides too much of the country's agriculture to let it dry out entirely
10:45
Despite this, California has some very serious decisions to make about how it will manage the
10:49
water it has left. And while desalination seems like the perfect solution, at the end of the day
10:54
conservation is always the best option. I hope you enjoyed today's episode on California's
10:59
current water issues. If you did, please subscribe to my channel. And if you want to
11:03
watch more of my videos, you can do so here. Thanks for watching. See you next time
#Climate Change & Global Warming
#Ecology & Environment
#education