0:00
with cruising looking increasingly
0:02
unlikely not to return in any major way
0:04
until 2021 which lines have gone bust
0:08
look at risk or are well placed to
0:10
survive with no cruises or income
0:12
in may not long after the shutdown began
0:15
norwegian cruise line
0:16
group caused an enormous rumpus when
0:19
that they saw a real fundamental risk
0:22
that they may not survive
0:23
the shutdown so what's happened what's
0:26
what should we be expecting particularly
0:28
of the really big groups the carnival
0:30
corporation group which of course covers
0:33
including carnival seabourn holland
0:36
america princess aida costa
0:38
and many more the royal caribbean group
0:40
which of course includes royal caribbean
0:42
celebrity azamara silversy and norwegian
0:45
includes oceania and region 7c
0:48
so far there are five cruise lines that
0:52
bankrupt all of them have tended to be
0:55
independent cruise lines so who has
0:57
actually gone bust one of the royal
0:59
caribbean partnerships
1:00
went bankrupt fairly early on and this
1:03
which was a spanish based cruise line
1:06
they went into insolvency and their
1:08
three ships which were originally world
1:11
were removed and have been actually been
1:14
the second big cruise line to go bust
1:17
was cruise and maritime voyages this is
1:19
baseline which had a number of ships
1:21
they didn't own the ships they leased
1:22
the ships it was a popular cruise line
1:24
it was a value cruise line sell all
1:26
around the world very popular
1:27
particularly with the uk
1:28
and australians berko cruises they went
1:31
bankrupt fairly early on and they really
1:33
focused on cruises particularly around
1:36
and europe fdi cruises which was a
1:39
german cruise line came to mostly for
1:41
really focusing on europe and the
1:42
caribbean they also went bankrupt
1:45
the first north american based cruise
1:49
is blout small ship adventures blatt
1:52
smaller ship adventures also
1:53
builds ships and they're keeping that
1:55
going but they decided with everything
1:56
going on they were not going to reopen
1:58
ran a relatively small fleet they really
2:00
focused on coastal and inland voyages
2:03
north america the cruise lines that have
2:05
gone bankrupt so far have tended to be
2:07
smaller more independent cruise lines
2:09
really deep pockets or owners with very
2:12
there is one major cruise line that at
2:14
this point in time is looking
2:15
fairly at risk and that is crystal
2:18
cruisers now crystal cruises
2:19
is part of genting hong kong which is a
2:22
increasing they used to actually be the
2:24
big shareholder of norwegian cruise line
2:27
sold that on they have three key cruise
2:30
lines they have star cruisers and dream
2:32
which are major major players in asia
2:34
and they have crystal cruises the ultra
2:37
that holding company currently has over
2:39
three billion dollars of debt and they
2:41
stopped payments to creditors
2:43
to try and refinance what they have said
2:47
is that they have had some interest from
2:49
investors around the crystal product
2:51
itself the crystal brand itself
2:53
the cruise line itself has issued a
2:54
statement to travel agents saying they
2:57
to keep cruising to keep going and they
3:00
paying refunds significantly though a
3:03
number of insurance companies
3:04
will not cover crystal bookings because
3:07
there's question marks around it
3:08
so the at this point in time although it
3:10
looks like crystal will survive
3:11
it's definitely a cruise line under a
3:15
what about the big cruise company
3:17
certainly in may there was lots of
3:18
speculation about those big companies
3:20
and their ability to survive
3:21
and would all of the brands survive
3:23
however i think we can say
3:25
with some confidence that those three
3:28
are extremely likely to survive this
3:32
whole process of pandemic because of the
3:34
way that they've restructured what's
3:36
is although a lot of people are down
3:37
beat on cruising investors
3:39
lenders and wall street do see a
3:43
clear long-term future for cruising and
3:46
what you need to bear in mind is unlike
3:49
other travel brands the cruise industry
3:52
slash their costs dramatically very
3:54
quickly pretty much all of their crew
3:56
are on contracts so by ending their
3:57
contracts or when contracts ended
3:59
you know over a hundred thousand or more
4:03
left the business they put their ships
4:05
into cold layout which dramatically
4:06
reduced costs they slashed head office
4:10
or shore sites if we don't believe in
4:11
the uk they cut their
4:13
numbers of people working for carnival
4:15
corporation by about 40 percent
4:18
carnival corporation since the pandemic
4:20
has started according to the financial
4:23
has raised over 11 and a half billion
4:26
dollars they're currently burning
4:28
through around 650 million dollars a
4:31
arnold donald the ceo has said they have
4:35
to keep going till at least june 2021
4:38
even if there is no cruising
4:40
so i think we can safely say that they
4:41
are pretty well covered
4:43
they're all caribbean groups so that is
4:44
royal caribbean celebrity azamara and
4:46
silversea have also been able to raise
4:48
an enormous amount of
4:50
money they're currently burning through
4:51
250 million dollars a month
4:53
however since the start of the pandemic
4:55
the financial time reports they have
4:57
7.1 billion dollars and again what
4:59
they're saying is they have enough money
5:02
to keep going as an entity right through
5:05
until the middle of 2021
5:07
even if there is no selling and no
5:10
norwegian cruise line is burning through
5:11
160 million dollars a month
5:13
and as i mentioned in may they express a
5:15
lot of concern about the ability to keep
5:18
they have managed to raise an enormous
5:20
amount of money according to the
5:22
they have raised 5 billion and this
5:25
is going to cover them through to at
5:28
20 21 so even longer than the other
5:32
so as we can see those major cruise
5:33
lines and those major brands are very
5:36
well covered so unlike the gloomy
5:39
cruise lines and cruise companies have
5:42
as many had predicted they would do
5:44
because certainly there is a belief that
5:46
there is pent-up demand for cruising
5:48
come back in the long term so investors
5:52
giving money to these companies even
5:53
though they're burning anything between
5:55
and 650 million dollars a month the
5:58
money is taking a bet on the long
6:00
term of cruising i have regular cruise
6:04
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