Up next in 10
In this big cruise update, there are 6 clear signs and indications that ocean cruising will not resume until 2021. I have observed 6 big indicators and barriers to cruise ships being able to and allowed to start sailing and cruising oceans around the world in 2020, and it will only be some time in 2021. Discover what these are and see if you agree.
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Gary Bembridge's Tips For Travellers aims to help you make more of your precious travel time and money on land and when cruising the oceans or rivers of the world. To help you, in every video I draw on my first-hand tips and advice from travelling every month for over 20 years and 77 cruises at time of making this video.
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#WhenWillCruisesResume #CruiseSuspension #CruiseTips
00:00 Start
00:24 Lines Expectations?
01:30 Plans Status?
02:36 Ports Status?
05:00 Crew Issues?
06:00 Regulatory Issues?
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0:00
there are six clear signs that ocean
0:03
cruising won't resume
0:04
until 2021 i'm gary bembridge
0:07
and this is tips for travelers you could
0:10
book a cruise right now
0:11
in 2020 and into january and beyond in
0:14
2021 however
0:16
there are many many signs suggesting
0:18
that those cruisers will just
0:20
not be running i'm going to explore six
0:22
big signs
0:23
and reasons why i say that first of all
0:27
the cruise lines themselves are not
0:28
expecting cruising to happen
0:31
until 2021 in the last couple of days
0:34
before i recorded this princess
0:35
cruises announced that they were
0:37
postponing and cancelling
0:38
pretty much all cruisers around the
0:40
world until the middle of december
0:42
so they've cancelled cruises all around
0:44
the caribbean the california hawaii
0:46
mexico
0:47
the panama canal south america
0:48
antarctica japan
0:50
taihiti and asia and they've also
0:52
postponed
0:53
australia way into august princess
0:56
cruises has traditionally been the first
0:58
of the cruise lines to move with
1:00
cancellations they are not expecting to
1:02
sail really
1:03
in 2020 some uk based lines like cunard
1:06
have already cancelled
1:07
through to november and expectations is
1:10
that could keep
1:11
coming we've also seen all the cruise
1:12
lines have gone back into the markets
1:14
again
1:14
to raise more money to tie them over so
1:17
that they can
1:18
basically keep operating with no revenue
1:20
coming in in 2020.
1:22
so all the signs by the cruise lines are
1:25
that they
1:25
are not expecting cruises to happen
1:27
anytime soon
1:29
even though they're still selling
1:30
cruises linked to that there
1:32
are no finally developed and agreed
1:35
plans to resume passenger cruising that
1:38
have to be agreed with the key
1:40
health authorities around the world so
1:42
for example that is the cdc the center
1:44
for disease control
1:45
and prevention in the united states
1:47
which have the final say on cruising or
1:48
even
1:49
if you take places like the uk with
1:50
public health england
1:52
these plans have not been fully
1:53
developed and they have not been agreed
1:55
there are some initiatives underway so
1:57
for example royal caribbean group and
1:59
norwegian
1:59
cruise line group they formed the
2:00
healthy sailing initiative with a group
2:03
of
2:03
experts but they're not even going to
2:04
report back until the end of august and
2:07
then the plans left it developed
2:08
and submitted the ceo of the carnival
2:11
corporation group arnold donald
2:13
in a recent interview admitted that we
2:15
have not actually gotten to the point of
2:17
serious resumption of cruise discussions
2:18
with the cdc
2:20
but of course that's coming so there's
2:22
no fully developed plans
2:23
all the discussions certainly in the us
2:25
with the cdc on ocean cruising is all
2:27
related
2:28
up until now to crew repatriation so
2:29
it's going to take a while still
2:31
for plans to be developed and agreed
2:34
this is unlikely to happen
2:35
quickly the third reason why there won't
2:38
be cruising in 2020 and it won't happen
2:39
until 2021
2:41
is there is nowhere to cruise to when we
2:44
talk about ocean cruising we're mostly
2:45
talking about
2:46
two big areas first of all the caribbean
2:48
which requires sailing between multiple
2:50
countries i.e multiple different islands
2:53
and secondly the big other cruising area
2:55
is the mediterranean which again
2:56
involves
2:56
cruising between multiple countries
2:58
around europe however
3:00
it's going to be a long time before
3:02
inter-country
3:04
cruising is going to be open we're
3:06
seeing that many many ports are closed
3:08
spain
3:08
have completely closed to cruise ships
3:10
the caribbean
3:11
has started to open but closed down
3:13
again so many of those islands in the
3:15
caribbean
3:15
are especially not open to cruise ships
3:18
so for example grand cayman the bahamas
3:20
reversed a plan to open up and they've
3:22
closed again indefinitely to cruise
3:24
ships
3:25
if you want to cruise around the
3:26
caribbean many of those islands also
3:28
require covert 19 tests before people
3:30
can
3:30
come in so that includes places like
3:33
aruba
3:34
belize jamaica puerto rico saint lucia
3:37
said martin
3:38
we're seeing an increasing resistance by
3:40
ports to have
3:41
cruise ships coming in so for example
3:43
the united states we've seen bar harbor
3:45
in maine vote to exclude cruise ships
3:47
certainly for the rest of this year
3:48
we've seen key waste putting a
3:50
referendum in place which is talking
3:52
about banning certainly large cruise
3:53
ships coming in
3:55
canada is closed australia's closed the
3:57
seychelles is closed
3:58
so we're seeing a huge resistance to
4:00
cruise ships moving between countries
4:01
which is a fundamental part
4:03
of mainstream cruising what we have seen
4:05
is some local cruising for local
4:07
countries so
4:08
if you're a norwegian citizen you can go
4:09
cruising ocean cruising around norway if
4:11
you're a french citizen you can go
4:12
cruising around french ports
4:14
on a french cruise line germany started
4:16
cruises to nowhere for german
4:18
passengers and there's some discussion
4:19
around whether that's going to happen in
4:20
the uk or italy
4:22
so certainly big mainstream ocean
4:24
cruising
4:25
cannot start up because there's just not
4:27
enough ports open
4:28
and countries willing to have ships
4:30
moving between different countries
4:32
in one cruise u.s passengers are also
4:35
fundamental to cruising they
4:36
are the vast bulk of cruise passengers
4:39
and many countries
4:40
are not accepting u.s passengers
4:41
entering so that's many places in the
4:43
caribbean
4:44
so right through the eu the uk and many
4:46
other countries have restrictions on u.s
4:48
passengers moving
4:49
and actually entering the countries to
4:51
visit in the first place let alone
4:52
board cruise ships cruise lines will
4:54
find it very difficult to start big
4:55
mainstream cruising
4:56
if u.s passengers are excluded from
4:59
boarding ships
5:00
the fourth key sign which shows that
5:02
it's going to be extremely difficult
5:04
to impossible to start cruising until we
5:06
head into next year
5:07
is the ability to get crew back on board
5:09
in fact cruise
5:10
lines are still trying to repatriate
5:12
crew and there's very
5:14
few crew now on board ships
5:17
you're going to need thousands and
5:19
thousands of crew to head back
5:20
to reman ships and that is virtually
5:23
impossible with huge travel restrictions
5:25
in places like india and the philippines
5:28
and also just the availability
5:29
of flights to be able to move crew
5:31
around if they want to bring crew back
5:33
by ship which they often did to
5:34
repatriate crew that's going to take a
5:36
while for those ships to get
5:38
back and in place and get approval by
5:40
authorities to let
5:41
crew board so the ability of getting
5:44
crew back to manned ships in 2020
5:46
seems virtually impossible a good
5:48
example of that is in germany
5:50
where they are starting those cruises to
5:52
nowhere for german passengers they've
5:53
had to delay some of those sailings
5:55
because of their difficulty of getting
5:57
actually crew back
5:58
to man the ship probably one of the
6:01
biggest barriers to cruising starting
6:03
until 2021
6:04
is the belief by health authorities that
6:06
cruising is
6:08
the most risky of all settings people
6:11
can be in
6:12
for transmission and catching covert 19.
6:14
this is an area where
6:15
cruise lines are going to do an enormous
6:17
job to try and shift that mindset
6:20
if we take a look at some recent
6:22
statements so the cdc for example
6:24
in their most recent no sale order they
6:27
issued a 20-page document
6:28
and they were very clear that they see
6:30
cruising as the highest risk
6:33
of any other setting for people to enter
6:35
they spoke
6:36
there about the fact that 80 of ships
6:39
that were in american waters
6:41
between the 1st of march and the 10th of
6:43
july
6:44
80 of ships had some kind of 19
6:47
confirmed or suspected
6:49
outbreak and that some of those were
6:51
still ongoing at the time
6:52
of the most recent no cell order they
6:55
also quote
6:56
the fact that you've seen on some cruise
6:58
ships like the diamond princess and r8
7:00
the rate of
7:01
people spreading the disease of being
7:03
almost 15
7:04
versus even in the biggest cities
7:06
outbreaks where you had it an rate of
7:08
three
7:08
to four and bear in mind that since
7:11
cruising is entirely
7:12
recreational where unlike say airlines
7:14
which have both a commercial
7:16
a strategic a business slant as well as
7:19
recreational travel they see
7:20
no incentive in opening up recreational
7:23
travel
7:23
on cruise ships when they see them as
7:25
being highly infectious
7:27
they see that because of the
7:28
concentrated nature of being on board a
7:30
ship so people are in a much more
7:31
concentrated
7:32
environment even with some degree of
7:35
lower capacity
7:36
they also point out that the crew are
7:38
often in quite cramped quarters sharing
7:40
quarters
7:40
again increasing the risk of
7:42
transmission also they believe that with
7:44
lower capacity that doesn't actually
7:46
solve the problem because they point out
7:48
that actually there was still covert 19
7:50
outbreaks on board ships
7:51
when there was just crew and no
7:54
passengers
7:55
one of the biggest barriers to
7:57
governments allowing
7:59
cruising to start certainly in 2020 and
8:01
into 2021
8:03
is the concern that if they let cruising
8:04
start up and there is an
8:06
outbreak on board ships that this will
8:09
place
8:09
enormous and unwanted stress on already
8:12
stretched
8:13
government regional state and local
8:16
facilities and resources already all of
8:19
those
8:19
are extremely stretched as it is with
8:22
coping with the situation
8:24
on land and they're really concerned
8:25
that they will exacerbate and create
8:26
more problems
8:27
by allowing cruise ships to sail
8:30
government authorities basically just
8:32
see it as
8:32
too risky allowing people on and off
8:34
ships
8:35
in the current state of the pandemic
8:37
which is probably going to rumble on for
8:38
many months
8:39
bear in mind at this point in time we
8:40
have relatively high levels and growing
8:43
rates of infections in part of the
8:44
united states we're seeing that also
8:46
happening in parts of
8:47
south america we've also seen a real
8:50
concern around second waves in many
8:51
countries as they start to open up
8:53
their economies and also very
8:55
importantly we're seeing even in
8:56
countries with low infections
8:58
that you can have local peaks of
9:00
infection and local lockdowns it's
9:02
happened in germany it's happened in
9:03
australia it's happened in the uk
9:05
spain and even in parts of asia like
9:08
japan and south korea
9:09
there's a real concern that if they open
9:11
up cruising if they allow people start
9:12
coming on and off ships with just the
9:15
volatility
9:16
that you have of the virus around the
9:17
world that it's just a risk they don't
9:20
need to or want to take so they
9:22
basically don't want to let cruisers go
9:24
where they see it's too risky they are
9:25
concerned that if there is an
9:27
outbreak on a ship it's going to
9:29
basically swamp
9:30
the local resources and they see that
9:32
it's completely
9:33
unnecessary thing to do there are quite
9:36
a few signs
9:36
building that cruising is unlikely to
9:40
start up in 2020 and really is only
9:42
likely startup in 2021.
9:44
what do you think about the state of
9:46
cruising and do you think cruising
9:48
is going to start sooner and i'm taking
9:50
a more pessimistic view than you believe
9:52
i'd love to hear what you think i have
9:54
loads more videos
9:56
of updates tips and advice about
9:58
cruising so why don't you also watch
9:59
another one of those
10:01
right now
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