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In this cruise update I look at the 6 main reasons the United States authorities are so against cruising resuming from USA ports and in their waters anytime soon. The CDC (Center For Disease Control and Prevention) are the body that decides if cruises can start up and they have 6 reasons they do not want to let cruising resume for some time. Find out what they are and why they think this way.
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#CruiseUpdate #CruiseNews #WhenWillCruisesResume
00:00 Start
00:47 Risk Factors
03:41 Infection Rates
04:30 Resources Required
06:07 Lines Reliability
08:50 Lack Of Plans
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0:00
I'm Gary Bembridge this is too so Travis
0:01
I want to talk about why the u.s. is so
0:04
set against cruising resuming inside US
0:08
waters anytime soon why is it that from
0:12
a cruise lovers perspective cruising
0:14
seems an increasingly safe place to
0:16
travel but the authorities who make the
0:18
decision don't this is really all about
0:21
the CDC the Center for Disease Control
0:23
and Prevention they are the people who
0:25
decide if cruising can start and they
0:27
are pretty hostile towards the cruisin
0:29
industry and this was seen most recently
0:31
in a 20-page document there are six key
0:34
reasons that this document actually
0:36
highlights and draws attention to about
0:39
why the CDC is so set against cruising
0:41
first of all and probably the most
0:42
significant of all is the CDC strongly
0:45
believes and keep saying that they do
0:47
see cruise ships as being a much higher
0:50
risk than any other settings any other
0:53
land-based place for transmission of the
0:56
virus they see cruise ships as extremely
0:59
high-risk partly feeling this is the
1:02
fact that 80% of the cruise ships that
1:05
were within US waters between the
1:07
beginning of March and the 10th of July
1:09
had outbreaks on board the ship of curve
1:13
at 19 that's 99 out of the 123 ships in
1:16
US waters had an outbreak and even at
1:19
the time that they issued the no sail
1:22
order nine ships still had some kind of
1:25
covert 19 issue on board so basically
1:28
the data 80% of cruise ships having some
1:31
incident of cover 19 is reinforcing and
1:34
driving their belief that cruise ships
1:36
are a particularly risky environment
1:38
they quote a number of different
1:39
scientific sources including one which
1:41
looked at the rate of spread or the our
1:44
rate on the diamond princess which was
1:46
up to four times higher than many
1:47
countries had on land but they
1:50
specifically say and this is a quote the
1:52
current scientific evidence suggests
1:54
that cruise ships pose a greater risk of
1:56
carbon 19 transmissions than other
1:58
settings cruise ship conditions
2:00
amplified an already highly
2:02
transmissible disease and what they talk
2:05
about is the mere fact of the nature of
2:07
cruise ships and the ecology on cruise
2:09
ships so you have a lot of people in a
2:10
contained space it's relatively
2:12
difficult to do so
2:13
distancing the crew are sharing quiet
2:16
cramped quarters they're sharing
2:17
quarters the facilities available just
2:20
on board because we could go into
2:21
theaters are going to bars they're going
2:23
to nightclubs they're mixing a lot that
2:27
it's just a environment that enables to
2:29
spread much easier and much quicker than
2:32
it does in similar situations on land
2:34
people may disagree with this but this
2:36
is a clearly a very strong belief that
2:38
cruise ships are very high-risk and this
2:40
is something that the industry is going
2:42
to work on to get the c-d-c to ship from
2:45
they talk for example in the document
2:48
that they've had to do contact tracing
2:49
four of 11,000 passengers which is
2:52
significantly greater than they've had
2:54
to do for covert 19 outbreaks linked to
2:57
any airlines and flights operating
2:59
within the United States they also argue
3:02
that data they collected during the no
3:04
sale order also show that even if you
3:06
drastically reduce the amount of people
3:08
on board the virus can still spread and
3:10
they quoted for example some experiences
3:12
on the Disney wonder where they had a
3:13
lot of outbreaks of Kobe 19 even once
3:16
passengers were off which one on for
3:18
many weeks and they also talked about
3:19
how for Royal Caribbean ships which had
3:22
no incidences captured during a 28
3:25
period there was no testing however when
3:28
crew disembarked they tests were done in
3:31
the countries where the crew came from
3:32
and 55 cases were found even though
3:34
nothing had been picked up onboard and
3:37
this is large I guess because of
3:38
asymptomatic people spreading the virus
3:40
the second reason that the CDC is
3:43
against cruising resuming anytime soon
3:45
is they specifically talked about in the
3:47
document about the risk of getting
3:49
people to go on and off cruise ships
3:51
when they see the virus is not under
3:53
control on land so they talk about
3:55
different states and different countries
3:56
not yet having really got the infection
3:59
rates truly under control and in some
4:01
cases really increasing so getting
4:03
people to come on an off cruise ships is
4:05
just exacerbating and creating a
4:06
significant problem so they are against
4:09
cruising starting up whilst on land
4:11
infection rates are still high and
4:13
growing and they do specifically talk
4:16
about the infection rates around the
4:17
world
4:18
the third area and this is one that
4:20
certainly has come up many many times
4:22
and I believe is a big issue is
4:25
the real concern that the CDC has around
4:28
the amount of resources it's taking them
4:30
to manage the whole situation that
4:32
develops when the pandemic broke out in
4:34
the first nerve cell order and repairing
4:37
passengers and crew just the amount of
4:38
time it takes but also significantly
4:40
they talked many many times a document
4:42
about their concern about the drain on
4:44
federal on state and on local resources
4:47
and importantly facilities including its
4:50
and especially talking about medical
4:53
facilities putting a whole big drain on
4:54
the system by getting out survivor crew
4:57
or passengers back on board they talked
4:59
for example since the beginning of March
5:00
they have expended over 38,000 man-hours
5:04
in the CDC alone and that's really been
5:05
focused initially on the passenger
5:08
situation as the no cell orders started
5:10
up but also in terms of repatriating
5:13
crew even though they actually resisted
5:15
all of crew actually disembarking in the
5:17
US and had rules where ships had to
5:19
basically sell them home they also then
5:21
spoke about the fact that despite those
5:23
restrictions they had to supervise and
5:26
were involved in the repatriation of
5:28
getting eight thousand eight hundred odd
5:30
crew off the ship making the point that
5:33
only 314 of those were u.s. citizens
5:36
they are extremely concerned about the
5:38
drain that if they let cruising start up
5:41
again and there's any issues that it
5:43
will put on resources at federal level
5:45
local level state level and especially
5:47
as I mentioned a Rambo strain it could
5:50
put on the medical resources and
5:52
capability particularly I guess when
5:55
things are happening on land where those
5:56
resources are already pretty stretched
5:58
the fourth area is also one that they
6:01
talk about a lot they spend a lot of
6:02
time in the document talking about this
6:04
and this is about how they feel that
6:06
overall cruise lines are actually pretty
6:08
unreliable and haven't really been very
6:10
good at following the rules they have
6:12
two sections in the document which are
6:14
especially telling and have a lot of
6:16
detail and these are first of all one
6:18
section which is called difficulty of
6:21
cruise ship operators in submitting
6:23
appropriate response plans and secondly
6:25
they have a whole nother section which
6:27
is entitled examples of potential
6:30
non-compliance with the extended no sail
6:32
order as you can see from those two
6:34
sectors they have a lot of reservations
6:36
about the ability of cruise lines to
6:39
actually be a partner in this whole
6:41
process so they talked about how cruise
6:44
lines didn't really respond particularly
6:46
well around the whole area of crew
6:48
repatriation and the rules that they
6:50
required to be put in place and then
6:51
they had lots of evidence that they were
6:53
not being complied to they spoke about
6:55
how the plans that were submitted were
6:56
incomplete that keep going through
6:58
reworks to get them into a good
7:00
situation they also point out that they
7:02
have a system of green amber and red
7:04
system and there is only one cruise line
7:06
so far that they have signed off as
7:09
following all the protocols that they're
7:10
happy with and that's actually not one
7:12
of the main cruise lines that's the
7:13
actual Bahama paradise line which is a
7:15
relatively small line that many people
7:18
probably won't even heard of they then
7:19
also talked a lot about how even through
7:21
the crew process they had lots of
7:23
evidence of non-compliance a lot of that
7:25
was picked up either on social media
7:27
with stuff that was being posted or
7:29
through some sort of whistleblowing I
7:30
people from ships sending it in and they
7:33
specifically talked about their concerns
7:34
around even though the rules were around
7:37
social distancing they had lost evidence
7:38
that this wasn't being enforced on board
7:41
there's lots of pictures of crew parting
7:43
gyms being open sans been open communal
7:46
dining self-service and also one of the
7:48
things that wasn't allowed is
7:50
non-approved
7:51
movement of crew between ships and
7:53
reports that they believed that ships
7:56
are heading out of an out of US waters
7:58
and doing what they called unapproved or
8:01
illegal kind of crew transfers so lots
8:05
of concerns that they have around the
8:07
way that cruise lines develop plans
8:09
submitted plans and comply to them now
8:11
I'm pretty sure the cruise lines would
8:12
challenge that however we're talking
8:14
about what the CDC things here so
8:16
clearly they have reservations when it
8:18
comes to them dealing with crew and this
8:21
of course means that they have concerns
8:23
when it comes to thinking about what
8:24
they going to do when it comes to
8:25
passengers so certainly a lot of kind of
8:28
reservations and in some ways potential
8:30
mistrust of the cruise lines and that
8:32
again seems like a big hurdle to be able
8:35
to come before they're going to be happy
8:36
to sign of things moving ahead the fifth
8:39
point was something that actually
8:40
surprised me because I had certainly
8:41
believed what I had seen and read about
8:44
was a clear and the cruise lines were
8:46
kind of quite a united front in their
8:49
discussions with the CDC however this
8:51
doesn't appear to be the case
8:52
certainly
8:52
the CDC's perspective and they do talk
8:55
about two things they talk about a need
8:56
for a really coordinated response from
8:59
the industry and also much more detailed
9:02
and thorough plans to address their
9:04
concerns which are slide given to what
9:06
they believe Cruise Lines are currently
9:08
communicating sending out to consumers
9:10
so let's explore that a little bit more
9:13
they have a section which again its
9:15
title is probably pretty telling in
9:17
itself and this particular section the
9:19
report is called lack of consensus among
9:21
cruise ship operators and need for
9:23
additional industry led efforts
9:25
regarding safely resuming passenger
9:27
operations so that's quite a long
9:29
mouthful but what they really talk about
9:31
in here is very interesting first of all
9:33
they talk about they want an
9:35
industry-led and coordinated response
9:37
they actually specifically call out the
9:39
joint alliance between Royal Caribbean
9:41
group and Norwegian Cruise Line group
9:43
which have formed the healthy sailing
9:46
panel which has some pretty big leading
9:49
Xcover meant officials in their ex
9:51
members of the CDC the FDA and lots of
9:54
different health authorities they talked
9:56
about it's great that this has been
9:57
formed however they very pointedly talk
10:00
and in fact they have it in italics the
10:02
fact that this group is only going to be
10:05
reporting back within the coming months
10:07
ie the sense that they are making other
10:09
thing a little bit of an odd chore or
10:10
pointing out the fact that the industry
10:12
still hasn't developed a consensus
10:14
around what the right protocol is going
10:16
to be and secondly they then also in a
10:18
very pointed way talk about how cruise
10:20
lines appear to be issuing stuff through
10:22
online and in print marketing materials
10:25
which cover a whole range of different
10:27
things they're doing but they're sort of
10:29
making the point that this feels more
10:31
like a PR exercise than big substantive
10:34
plans which they've had input and
10:35
discussed so they do obviously allude to
10:37
some of the things that they've seen
10:39
cruise lines talking about like reduce
10:40
capacity different protocols cleansing
10:42
protocols onboard that kind of stuff but
10:45
they do actually make the point and they
10:46
specifically say in the document that
10:48
there it would be of benefit to have
10:51
further industry led engagement so
10:54
clearly there's still a sense that they
10:55
are they're missing something big and
10:57
call it from the cruise lines themselves
11:00
what they talk about in this document
11:02
though is a bunch of things which they
11:05
have a high degree of concern
11:06
about which are perhaps not the sort of
11:08
things that we have seen so far coming
11:10
out from cruise lines alam short guru's
11:11
lines are addressing them but they talk
11:13
about the sort of things they want to
11:14
see in plans are things around they want
11:17
to know about testing testing capability
11:19
either on board or the ability to do it
11:21
very fast to turn around and actually
11:23
much more extensive testing for example
11:25
particularly amongst crew they talk
11:27
about medical facilities making sure
11:29
that cruise ships are able to isolate
11:31
and manage any issues on board in terms
11:34
of quarantine or dealing with passengers
11:37
on board the ship not having to rely on
11:38
land based or Shore based activities
11:41
then they also talk about if there is an
11:43
outbreak on port they want to see a plan
11:45
which minimizes or completely eliminates
11:48
the need for onshore ie us resources
11:51
they talk about perhaps deploying a ship
11:54
to handle quarantine cases a ship which
11:57
perhaps acts as a hospital ship and
11:59
perhaps even another ship which handles
12:01
care if for once people have gone over
12:04
the virus so they are looking for a plan
12:06
which minimizes the use of onshore and
12:10
us-based
12:11
resources they do also ask if there is
12:14
an onshore element how this is going to
12:16
be done in a way that again minimizes
12:18
the impact on local land-based US
12:21
resources the next area that they talk
12:23
about is they also clearly state that
12:26
they do not see themselves as an outlier
12:28
they do talk about many other countries
12:30
around the world have a similar approach
12:32
and belief on cruising so though we have
12:34
seen some ocean cruising starting up for
12:36
local people in like Germans can go
12:39
cruising around Germany French can go
12:42
cruising around France and Norwegians
12:44
Scandinavians can go cruising around
12:45
Norway they do talk and argue that most
12:48
countries around the world or so in many
12:50
countries around the world have a
12:51
similar approach and belief around
12:53
stopping cruising really rolling out
12:56
suddenly across countries they draw
12:59
attention to Canada closing its ports
13:01
Australia closing in sports Spain
13:02
closing and support many countries in
13:04
the Caribbean or islands in the
13:06
Caribbean not welcoming cruise ships and
13:08
closing to cruise ships so basically
13:10
refer to a lots of countries around the
13:11
world having a very strict no sell
13:14
approach to cruising the CDC is really
13:16
fundamental in deciding if cruising can
13:18
start in the US so what
13:20
wanted to do is explore why the CDC is
13:23
so against cruising but pretty much they
13:26
see cruising and cruise ships as a
13:28
high-risk environment getting people on
13:30
off cruise ships increases that degree
13:32
of risk when it's not in control and
13:34
land and also they're not comfortable
13:36
that there are plans in place and that
13:38
the Lions would comply with all the
13:40
plans even when they're in place so
13:42
quite a long way to go it feels to me
13:44
before cruising can get going but I
13:46
really want to understand why is it that
13:49
from a cruise lovers perspective
13:51
cruising seems an increasingly safe
13:53
place to travel but the authorities who
13:55
make the decision don't hope you found
13:57
that interesting and helpful I'd love to
13:59
know what you think about this whole
14:01
process too
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