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After nine years at Manchester City, Bernardo Silva is leaving the club. But how do they replace him? How do you replace the teams 'engine' and 'steering wheel' at the same time? Today we're looking at the Bernardo Silva shaped hole appearing in Pep’s set up, identifying a potential successor who’s already in the squad, and looking at the big money signings that could be made from the Bundesliga and beyond!
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0:00
Look at these stats from Bernardo Silva's performance versus Arsenal
0:03
76 touches, 16 passes in the final third, 5 duels won, 4 possessions won, plus plenty more
0:10
No wonder Pep Guardiola once called him irreplaceable. Well, the bad news for him and City is that now they must try to replace him
0:17
because after 9 years at the Etihad, the little magician is leaving
0:21
But how do they even attempt to do that? How do you replace the team's engine and steering wheel at the same time
0:26
Well, today we're deconstructing the Bernardo Silva-shaped hole appearing in Pep's setup
0:32
identifying a potential successor who's already in the squad, and looking at the big money signings that could be made from the Bundesliga and beyond
0:41
I'm Matt Froelich from 442, and this is how Manchester City could replace Bernardo Silva
0:50
Now, to understand what Manchester City are losing, we have to look at Bernardo Silva's individual profile first
0:55
More often than not, an attacking midfielder will be judged on basic statistics like goals, assists
1:01
and whilst he chips in with an important few, in those categories he'll never rival someone like Mo Salah
1:06
Bukayo Saka, Bruno Fernandes, but there's so many facets to his game that can't always be quantified
1:11
He's not there to put up numbers. He's there to enable a complex footballing system to work
1:16
with arguably the widest set of tools of any modern Premier League player. We'll start with two of his greatest powers, his passing and his dribbling
1:25
Over nine years in the Premier League, 300 appearances, his pass completion rate is a ridiculous 89%
1:31
Rodri is only just ahead at 91%, but his passes are in deeper, safer areas
1:37
and he does a hell of a lot less dribbling than Silva, both in quantity and distance
1:41
This season, actually, Bernardo Silva has hit a personal record high of 49.7 passes per 90
1:46
with a second highest completion rate of 90.3%. As for his dribbling, he's in the 97th percentile for progressive carries across Europe this season
1:54
but incredibly only loses possession 12% of the time. And this is because he's dribbling in all areas to escape trouble
2:01
or to manage the tempo of the game, something key to Guardiola's tactics that we'll come on to shortly
2:06
If you compare that with Jeremy Doku, who also has a very high number of progressive carries
2:11
he loses possession 22% of the time because most of his dribbles are attempting to take on defenders
2:17
in dangerous areas of the pitch. Both of them dribble, but for very different reasons
2:22
So passing and dribbling aside, Next up, we have an immensely important trait for any attacker or midfielder in any side that wants to dominate all over the pitch
2:31
And that is what happens when they're out of possession. Most players have more of a positional memory, let's call it
2:38
When the ball is lost, they'll go back to their initial position because it allows the team to eventually settle into their defensive formation in relation to one another
2:46
For example, Rodri is the pivot that balances out the defensive structure. As his teammate once you know where he is you know approximately where you should be But Bernardo Silva has a spatial intuition He incredibly aware of where he is on the pitch where his teammates are and what the chances of a successful counter will be
3:03
He is therefore often trusted as the one who drives the press and recovers the ball
3:08
It'll be no surprise then to hear that he once broke the Premier League record for distance covered in a single game with 13.7 kilometers versus Liverpool in 2019
3:18
So he isn't just running like a headless chicken, he's running with purpose
3:22
If you mix all of that together with his 95 goal contributions to City, you get a player profile that Cieson relied upon to provide all sorts of contributions in some of the biggest games
3:33
I mentioned the Arsenal game earlier, but there's also his double in arguably City's greatest ever victory when they beat Real Madrid 4-0 in the season they won the Champions League
3:41
And actually, earlier this season, with City's crucial 2-1 winner Anfield, no player ran more than Silva's 13km
3:49
No player made more passes in the final third than his 24, nor did any City player attempt more dribbles than his four
3:56
So what City are losing then is a player who defines them in this Pep era with his skill, work rate, leadership and so much more
4:04
You can't replace that culture with £100m, but I'd feel pretty confident in saying they'll at least try
4:09
So what exactly should they be aiming for in a replacement? Well, if we look at City's tactical evolution
4:19
they have moved away from the chaos of the early years into a system of total control
4:24
a concept defined by what the Spanish call la pausa. It's a concept or ability to come to a near stop with the ball
4:30
remain composed, invite a defender to press you, and then make the right decision in moving the ball on
4:36
This skill is so important to have because it can be used anywhere on the pitch
4:40
It's not just an attacking or defensive thing. And Bernardo Silva is bloody brilliant at it
4:46
Players like Foden and Cherki want to go forward immediately. Rodri will keep it safe and metronomic, but Bernardo uses La Pauza like a pressure valve
4:54
Sometimes the pause is minimal. The ball is moved on swiftly, maybe in attack
4:59
And other times he'll keep it for four or five seconds, wiggling away from two players and resetting the play
5:05
Without that valve, City will face more losses in possession and consequently more counterattacks
5:10
Then we come to the versatility of Silva, an often underrated skill that makes him a dream for any manager
5:16
We've seen him play as a touchline winger to pin back elite fullbacks, a false nine to pull centre-backs out of position
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and in recent years as a deep-liking playmaker next to Rodri, utilising those passing and ball retention skills to maximum effect
5:31
It's the number eight role that David Silva perfected, but with the defensive tenacity that Silva never quite had to employ
5:38
Oh, and let's also not forget Pep's slide trick of using him as a right wing slash midfield hybrid
5:43
where he starts Bernardo on the right, but as soon as City have the ball, he moves inside to create a box midfield and a four versus three advantage in the center of the pitch
5:51
To replace him Pep needs a player who is comfortable being isolated one versus one on the wing but intelligent enough to understand when to tuck inside and become a third central midfielder If you buy a traditional winger like Jeremy Docku or Savinho you may lose the extra man in midfield
6:06
If you play a central midfielder there, you lose the width and the abilities to stretch the opponent
6:11
This is the Bernardo Silva paradox, where actually replacing him might not be about finding someone with his skill
6:18
but rather with his brain. If this read like a LinkedIn job description, it would read something like
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Must be a dynamic, cross-departmental, selfless, tactically disciplined team player who can maintain 90% pass accuracy whilst under extreme pressure
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be willing to track back 60 yards to cover for an overlapping fullback, and provide it consistently on the big occasions
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Not too much to ask then, although I guess the salary is pretty good. Anyway, with a job advert out there, who exactly is on the shortlist
6:45
Before we get to that though, I do have to tell you about our latest offer here at 442
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where right now, whether you're signing up for a short-term six-month deal or fancy game for longer
6:54
if you click the link in the description, you'll get the latest 442 magazine dropped straight to your door every month for up to 50% off
7:02
And if that wasn't enough, by signing up now, you'll also get the next issue, which is our first World Cup issue, completely free
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It comes with a World Cup wall chart and a supplement as well. So the link's in the description if you want to get onto it
7:14
But for now, let's get back to the video. Banana Silver! Right then, on to the potential replacements and let's start with the internal choices
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where Phil Foden is firstly the most obvious candidate to take the minutes
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He has the tactical understanding from working with Pep for years, possesses excellent ball control, agility, awareness and definitely brings more attacking flair
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But the Bernardo role requires a defensive ceiling Foden hasn't consistently shown
7:42
That then brings us to Rico Lewis. He's perhaps the only player in the squad who shares Bernardo's IQ
7:47
He understands the need for patience and control in his field and demonstrates a far better defensive output than Foden
7:54
But then he also lacks the attacking threat that Silva provides. The thing is, when replacing someone Pep called irreplaceable, you're probably going to have to sacrifice something
8:03
No player has it all. And the same rings true for those names flying around the rumor mill
8:08
For example, if Pep wants to replace Silva's ball carrying, he needs to look at a dribbling machine like Jamal Musiala
8:14
The German averages 3.8 successful take-ons per game, nearly double the number Silva does
8:19
However, on the passing side of things, Musiala's accuracy in the final third often drops to 82%, with Bernardo Silva around the 90% mark
8:28
Of course, Musiala is also one of the best players in the world, meaning he'll cost an absolute fortune
8:33
On the flip side though, if City want a pure data-driven replacement that may miss other parts of Silva's overall profile
8:39
then according to Opta the most comparable player across all of Europe's top five leagues is PSG's
8:46
Warren Zaire Emery at just 20 he has the engine of a marathon runner he third for distance run in the entire Champions League this season and his heat map over the course of this season is a joke just look at this he absolutely everywhere along with that he has 94 pass
9:02
completion more tackles than anyone in the PSG squad and the second highest distance dribble too
9:07
but not exactly the flare or attacking ability that the other options have so this then leaves
9:14
us looking for someone in the middle whose profile and stats mirror Bernardo Silva in the most balanced
9:19
way possible, meaning he doesn't go too deep into being one or the other. And the name currently
9:24
surfacing across blogs and websites aplenty is Ibrahim Matza. The 20-year-old Bayer Leverkusen
9:30
sensation is the closest thing scouts have seen to a young Bernardo Silva. This season he's got 11
9:35
gold contributions in 38 games, playing as a central midfielder or attacking midfielder
9:40
with the odd forward and wide forward appearance thrown in there too. That means we have the
9:46
versatility ticked off the list. Both he and Silva averaged 4.2 progressive carries per match
9:51
putting them in the ridiculous 96th percentile across Europe. But where Matzo really makes
9:56
himself stand out is with his key passes. Bernardo Silva clearly stands out for forward
10:01
passes, but that could be anywhere on the pitch as long as it's forward. Whereas Matzo's key passes
10:06
passes that result in a teammate shooting, whether he scores or not, places him in the 97th percentile
10:12
Oh, and on top of all of that, he wins a significantly higher percentage of his duels
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He's almost the physical evolution of Silva. Not just a recycler nor a presser, but also an attacker, a forward thinker in so many ways, regardless of where he is on the pitch
10:27
And if all of those names sound too risky, whether it's a mixture of cost, age, lack of Premier League experience or something else
10:33
why not go for Elliot Anderson, a versatile six slash eight hybrid that can shore up the midfield
10:39
He has more successful passes than any other midfielder in the league this season
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And what was a bizarre stat to discover is the only outfielder in the top 18 players for ball recoveries
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The other 17 are all goalkeepers. They're always picking up the ball or recovering it
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Of course, it won't be cheap coming from another Premier League side. But given how well the signings of Gaye and Semenyo have done
10:59
I can't see the club thinking twice if there's a good deal to be had. The reality then, well, Man City can't directly replace Bernardo Silva
11:06
but in Pep Guardiola, they've got a manager capable of covering up their losses and tactical tweaks
11:10
and the development of squad strengths elsewhere. When we talk about City legends, we talk about the big three, right
11:18
Company, Aguero, David Silva. They have the trophies and the era-defining moments, but so does Bernardo
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In my book, he's not just a legend, but he's the most City player of the Pep era
11:29
He represents the grit behind the success. Whilst David Silva started the Pep revolution
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you could argue that Bernardo shaped it and then finished it. He gave his peak years to the club
11:39
and he did it without ever demanding the spotlight. If David Silva was the architect of the Etihad
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Bernardo Silva is the builder. For loads more content from 442, make sure you smash that subscribe button
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And like I mentioned, get the link in the description if you want to get the latest copy of the magazine
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