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Mohamed Salah has to go down as arguably the greatest Premier League player of all time. But even with that arguement, he's still human and still susceptible to the same period of decline as any other player. But what has happened to the Liverpool forward this season? Why has he been so poor? And what do the stats show? Today, Matt returns to the studio to break down excatly how the world's best winger finally fell off.
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0:00
Mohamed Salah is arguably the greatest winger the Premier League has ever seen and the numbers don't lie
0:05
Almost 200 Premier League goals, three PFA Player of the Year awards and their trophies to match
0:10
But this season the Egyptian king has looked, well, human. But why now? Is he actually falling off or are we just witnessing the inevitable aging of an elite athlete
0:20
This is the Mo Salah paradox where we'll look at the brutal data behind his decline
0:25
how Liverpool have failed to plan for it, and why knowing when to sell a player is one of the toughest decisions in the game
0:35
Firstly, let's look at these numbers. In his peak, Salah was averaging nearly 10 touches in the box per game
0:42
This season, it's dropped to 6.2. His top speed has also dipped below the 34kmh mark for the first time
0:49
He's still elite, but he's no longer frightening. Now, is this normal
0:54
Absolutely. At 33, most muscle fibers begin to betray you, whether you're an athlete or not
0:59
Trust me on that one. And keeping blistering pace beyond that age
1:03
would be freakish for any athlete. The fact that Salah stayed at the summit until 33
1:07
is the anomaly here, because most wingers are done at the elite level by 31
1:13
That's not to say their careers are done, but what makes them so effective, their speed, acceleration, and change of direction
1:18
is on the decline. Look at Chungmin Sun, for example. Last year, age 32, we saw a similar dip in his performance at Spurs
1:25
The statistical output stayed respectable, but his influence on the game changed
1:30
He just wasn't the same. Sadio Mane's short-lived career at Bayern Munich proved he had dropped off in his final Liverpool season, age 30
1:38
whilst Eden Hazard never even really got going at Real Madrid. That after moving age 28 in 2019
1:45
if you combine this with Salah's decreasing numbers in successful dribbles and distance
1:50
in progressive carries you begin to get a slightly clearer picture that due to his physical decline
1:57
he isn't taking players on as much isn't getting into as many dangerous positions and isn't having
2:02
the same impact on a game the fall-off therefore isn't a lack of skill per se but a physical one
2:09
that then puts this technical ability under more scrutiny for example I wouldn't associate Mo
2:14
Salah with crossing the ball. I know he can, but that's not what comes to mind when you think of
2:18
the key characteristics that have made him so great over the years. Now, all of a sudden
2:22
you get a stat like this, showing that he is crossing the ball almost five times per 90
2:27
minutes this season. That is double the highest that it's ever been during his time at Liverpool
2:32
And if you're asking yourself, like I was, why is this happening? Well, it's probably due to the
2:36
fact that he is spending more and more time out on the right wing really wide rather than getting into a central position I mean look at his average heat map this season Now whether this is due to slots tactics losing Trent on the overlap a different style of striker
2:51
to work with in Eketike, there's plenty of debate to be had. But what's really happening is that
2:56
Salah is in unfamiliar territory in comparison to his peak game with less physical prowess and
3:03
therefore playing this whole new game that sees him attempt more crosses, less dribbles and less
3:08
shots. Of course there is a small detail we're missing here that could be relevant but it is
3:13
impossible to quantify in an actual statistic and that is maybe he's just not that interested anymore
3:19
and has his mind elsewhere. For the record I don't think football players are that cold-hearted but
3:23
with rumors about money spinning contract offers from MLS or Saudi Pro League clubs he could be
3:29
downing tools in an attempt to stay fit, sign on the dotted line and secure a mind-blowing payday
3:35
But again, that's all speculation, upon which I'd find it hard to build an actual solid argument
3:40
So we move on. It's Salah! Now then, with Salah's decline explained away from every single angle
3:48
it begs the question, should the club have sold him earlier? Or were they right to give him a new deal
3:53
Honest answer, in my opinion, yes. They were right to extend his contract for two years
3:58
He was having an all-timer of a season. Liverpool were on their way to a Premier League title
4:02
You'd be mad to suggest otherwise on the face of it. However, there is an argument to be made that you are playing with fire by giving a new deal to a player over 32
4:11
And the reason is money. Of course it is. In today's footballing world, we may have all been accidentally gaslit by the age of freaks
4:18
because Ronaldo, Messi, Lewandowski and Benzema all stayed elite well into their 30s and beyond
4:24
But they are the 1%. Harry Kane, now 32, Bayern Munich, is the only one in this next generation
4:30
who I think will still be putting up ridiculous numbers when he's 35 or older. Looking at his stats plus his style of play
4:36
he's the sort of slower, insane technician that the likes of Rooney, Ronaldo, Messi
4:42
had to morph into in order to prolong their playing careers, whereas Kane's always been like that
4:47
But freaks aside, the risk of having an older player is that they are normally past their peak
4:51
They hit a dip, their sell on value plummets, and you're left with a poor-performing player on high wages
4:56
or you lose them for little to no money, just like with Salah. So should he have been sold last summer
5:01
leaving on a metaphorical and value-based high. It's a massive gamble, a very difficult decision
5:06
but there's proof of concept and a word of warning in both scenarios
5:10
As I mentioned earlier, Sadio Mane was sold to Bayern. Great timing as it looked like he should have gone straight to Saudi
5:15
and skipped the Bundesliga part. Coutinho was another, albeit younger. When Liverpool sold him to Barcelona for up to £142m
5:23
his top form was never seen again. On the flip side though the club reportedly didn believe that Luis Diaz was worth the wages he wanted He left the club aged 28 for 75 million euros last summer and to be honest I think Bayern are seeing the best football of his career at this point I also throw out another example for the slightly
5:40
older ones amongst you who may remember Sir Alex Ferguson selling Yap Stam in 2001 one of the best
5:46
defenders in the world aged 29 because his tackling stats had fallen something Fergie later admitted
5:51
was one of his biggest regrets because he didn't account for the fact
5:55
that Stam had just returned from an ACL injury a little slower than expected on the pitch
5:59
and was actually attempting less tackles in the first place. So if they didn't want to make a mistake
6:04
but also knew that this was coming at some point have the club done enough then
6:09
to ensure success in a Salah-less future? I'm not convinced and here's why
6:14
Salah! What about it? Of all the reasons that we'll get onto
6:19
there is one specific damning statistic that must haunt the recruitment department at the club
6:25
The fact that Liverpool have not signed a legitimate out-and-out right winger
6:29
since Jordan Sekiri in 2018. For nearly a decade, the club have seemed to operate on this Salah will handle it philosophy
6:37
A strategy that, fair enough, worked brilliant most of the time, but was always a plan with its major flaws
6:42
Last summer was then another decisive window in the planning for life without Salah saga
6:47
where again it feels like little thought was given as the sale of Diaz to Bayern Munich stripped the squad of their most direct line-breaking threat
6:55
even if he was normally deployed on the opposite wing. And then, to top it all off, instead of using those funds to secure a specialised right-sided attacker to learn under Salah or gradually replace him
7:07
they almost doubled down entirely on central density. The mega transfer trio of Alexander Idzak, Florian Wiertz and Hugo Eketike represented a staggering £320 million investment
7:19
On paper, they're world-class tants. On the pitch, they're also world-class tants
7:24
But it's a tactical nightmare. Wurtz is a traditional 10 who prefers the left half space
7:29
And Izak and Eketike are both central strikers who drift wide left. There's so little emphasis on the right wing that they've almost created a gravity-heavy team that leans entirely to one side
7:39
making them predictable for any well-drilled Premier League defence. Maybe Jeremy Frimpong's attacking presence on that side was supposed to be
7:47
or could yet still be the answer, but it does feel like a gaping hole in their attacking arsenal
7:52
This lack of foresight has left Arna Slott, or whoever might be Liverpool manager next season
7:57
let's not rule out Xavi Alonso at this stage, with a jigsaw puzzle that is missing that last annoying piece that never seems to be in the box
8:05
One that will cost them a fortune to replace, due to what I'm going to call a succession tax
8:10
or desperation tax depending on how close we get to the end of the transfer window Realistically the only person I could see worthy of replacing him in a like hit equally dazzling levels of ability sort of way is Michael Olisse
8:23
And the chances of Bayern letting him go for anything less than another
8:27
Isak-size fee are minimal at best. Also, Olisse wanting to join the club when they might not have Champions League football
8:34
is also minimal at best. I guess then, from that standpoint, you could argue actually very strongly
8:40
that Liverpool should have sold them last summer and reinvested the money, as painful as it may have been
8:45
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8:49
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8:55
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8:59
and sign up with your email. Mo Seller goes for the game
9:03
Mo Seller! We seem to be entering an era then when the 1992-born superstars are hitting the wall
9:09
First it was Xiong Min Sun, then Kevin De Bruyne actually, whose body seems to be feeling the effects of football more and more
9:15
And Salah is just the most high profile casualty this season, but he isn't the first and won't be the last
9:20
However, there is one counterpoint before I wrap this whole thing up
9:24
It's a possibility that I've thought long and hard about. A highly unlikely third option known as the false dawn
9:31
Because what if the fall off isn't permanent? What if Salah should be allowed a poor season after such ridiculous consistent run
9:38
what if Salah still has a Danny Welbeck season left in him
9:42
Okay, sure, Welbeck was never a 30-goal-a-season man, but since turning 30, he's had a late career surge at Brighton
9:48
that has seen him in with a very outside chance of England's World Cup squad
9:53
mainly due to reaching double figures in Premier League goals for the first time ever in his career in the past two seasons
9:59
with his highest ever tally already guaranteed this time around, all at age 35
10:05
Maybe I was wrong about saying Kane is the only one who'll still be bagging at that age. But jokes aside, the real reason I mentioned it is because it shows that there are always anomalies in the data
10:15
Whether it's Welbeck's late blooming career or Cristiano Ronaldo's never-ending bloom, that is exactly what they are
10:23
Anomalies that can happen to any player across a wide range of skills, positions and levels of football
10:28
And just because Salah's career might not have contained one of these statistical outliers
10:32
it doesn't make Mo's achievements or footballing legacy any less incredible. It just makes him all the more human
10:40
So that is it then. The footballing fall off in a nutshell. When nothing is what it seems yet everything can be explained
10:46
Well, almost everything. Let us know in the comments who you want to see us cover next on 442
10:51
Don't forget to grab your copy of the latest edition of the magazine in stores now
10:55
Sitting right behind me. And by the time you've done that, we'll have loads more content for you to enjoy
11:00
Until the next one, I'll see you later
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