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Hey ladies and gentlemen, this is Carmine Sabia for Explain America and even a broken
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clock is right twice a day. Before we get started, please make sure you like, comment, share and subscribe
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Those little things really help us out and they help our channel continue to grow
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If you're not watching us on YouTube, check the lower right hand corner of your screen
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That's our address, youtube.com forward slash at Explain America. If you go to that and hit subscribe, it really helps us out guys and I would really appreciate it
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Guys, MSNBC is not known for giving Trump good news or Kamala Harris or Joe Biden bad news
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But sometimes you have to tell your audience what they don't want to hear. MSNBC doesn't really do that much
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But you have to temper expectations. So before I show you this, I'll temper your expectations
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This is a toss up race now. I'm not going to sit here every day and tell you Trump's got this in the bag
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That would be a lie. I'm not going to do that. Maybe you want to hear that
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But I can't do that. And I don't want to do that because I want to make sure you go to the polls
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I want to make sure you vote. I don't want you to think he's got it in the bag. First of all, I don't think he has it in the bag
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Second of all, I don't want you to think that. Go to the polls and vote. Well, MSNBC, they might be trying the same thing with their end anyway
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See, they gave a new poll and this poll is really bad news for Kamala Harris and the Democrats
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There's a particular voting block that you would not expect and it's not the black vote
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There's a particular voting block that you would not expect to be leaning towards Trump that is starting to heavily favor former President Donald Trump
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And if that trend continues, Trump will be the next president of the United States
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I want you to watch this video and then I want you to let me know what you think in
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the comments. Over at the big board with a look at the Keystone State
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Yeah, John. Well, let's take a look, kind of building on what George was just taking you through there
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Big picture in Pennsylvania. And by the way, when you do all of these road to 270 scenarios, I think everyone probably
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does these at home at some point. It is hard almost for either candidate to find that path to 270 without Pennsylvania
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It's just it's so big in terms of the number of electoral votes in there in that battleground
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type of state there. So it's such a crucial state, even among the battlegrounds
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And the range here is so narrow. Twenty twenty when Biden carried the state, look at it
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The margin was about 80000 votes statewide. Now, remember, Trump carried it in 2016 over Hillary Clinton
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The margin then was about forty four thousand votes. So between forty four thousand for Trump, 80000 for Biden in a state this big
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That's the kind of area we're talking about in terms of, you know, the number of votes
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you need to swing. And that's why what George was just talking about is so significant, because we talk so
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much about the Philly Burbs. We talk about Pittsburgh. But, you know, he's talking there about Berks County, where Reading is, Lehigh County, where
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Allentown is, Luzerne County. That's where Hazleton is. Those three cities have the highest share of Hispanic population of any cities in Pennsylvania
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And something very interesting politically happening in those three cities, because remember
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we're showing you here between 2016 and 2020, Pennsylvania moved toward the Democrats
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It went from Trump to Biden. It moved several points to the left
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But in those heavily Hispanic cities, the three biggest by concentration in the state
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Take a look. Here's Allentown, Lehigh County. This has the highest concentration of Hispanics in Pennsylvania
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It's a 54 percent Hispanic. And look at this. The trend has been toward Republicans
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The state was moving toward the Democrats between 16 and 20. But in Allentown, Clinton won it by 42 and 16, fell down to 35 in 2020
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This is an area we've talked so much about. The polls showing Trump making more inroads with Latino voters
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This is the kind of place where the Trump folks think this trend can continue
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Can they knock it down into the 20s this time? Could they do even better than that
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Again, you'll see it here. City of Hazleton. This is look at the transformation of Hazleton in 2000
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It was 5 percent Hispanic. Now more than 60 percent Hispanic. And again, look at this trend
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It was blue in 2012. Hazleton was for Obama. And then Trump comes along
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He picks. He carries it by five. He improves it to 11. Again, this is the kind of place that Trump folks think they can do better
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And again, this is very much a majority Hispanic city or Reading
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Again, this is where George was in Berks County. And you just take a look right here
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It's overwhelmingly Democratic. But look, from 2012, when Barack Obama won reelection to 2020, when Biden carried Pennsylvania
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that's a drop of basically 20 points in the Democratic margin here in a heavily Hispanic city
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So the trend in the most Hispanic cities in Pennsylvania, as the state was getting more
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Democratic in 2020, they were becoming more Republican. So when you think of that very narrow margin there overall statewide, Biden winning by
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80,000, Trump winning by 44,000, that's these are the kinds of cities where the Trump campaign
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thinks continuous improvement. There could be tens of thousands of votes that switch just because of that
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So that's the significance within Pennsylvania. Do make one point here, though
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The early polling we're seeing with Harris getting in in Biden's place is suggesting
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that maybe and I stress maybe she is improving her performance among Hispanic voters relative
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to where Joe Biden was. That's obviously very important to keep an eye on
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So fascinating
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