0:00
we're in the eye of the storm a false
0:02
Cal I think growth is flat and the labor
0:05
market is stagnant but are things about
0:07
to take a serious turn for the worst
0:09
welcome to the week in business with me
0:15
May earlier this week official labor
0:17
market stats showed that things are
0:19
pretty stagnant out there unemployment
0:21
remained relatively unchanged between
0:23
October and December in much the same
0:25
way that economic growth remained pretty
0:26
flat over the same period but it's
0:29
telling that these econom IC indicators
0:30
were presented as good news for the
0:32
chancellor she dodged a recession in
0:34
December and it seems that employment
0:36
held up towards the end of last year but
0:39
that holding pattern masks a pretty
0:40
worrying reality one that I fear is
0:43
about to burst into view with each
0:45
passing day the government's insistence
0:47
that economic growth is its number one
0:49
priority sounds more and more offensive
0:52
last week the business secretary
0:53
Jonathan Reynolds said he believes that
0:55
good policy good strategies and good
0:57
government working hand inhand with the
0:59
private sector can make a difference
1:01
well this may be true but it's also the
1:03
case that bad policy poor strategies and
1:06
muddled government leads to business
1:09
confidence crashing to the lowest
1:10
recorded level in a decade the chartered
1:13
Institute of personnel and development
1:15
spoke to 2000 firms and painted a
1:17
miserable picture for the start of this
1:19
year just over a third of employers plan
1:22
to reduce headcount over the coming
1:24
months either through redundancies or by
1:26
pulling the plug on planned recruitment
1:28
north of 40% of firms said they will
1:31
raise prices a figure rising to nearly
1:33
70% in the retail sector they said these
1:36
are the most significant downward
1:37
changes in employer sentiment they've
1:39
seen in the last 10 years outside of the
1:41
pandemic how's that for good policy
1:43
Johnny Reynolds also released at the
1:46
start of this week the latest Federation
1:48
of small businesses confidence survey
1:50
made for Grim reading I'm afraid with
1:52
economic conditions and the burden of
1:53
Taxation cited as the main barriers to
1:55
growth among their members sectors
1:57
including Hospitality retail and
1:59
construction offer the gloomiest Outlook
2:02
at the end of last summer 177% of those
2:04
businesses said they were going to
2:06
reduce their headcount by December that
2:08
figure had surged to 33% none of this
2:11
can be dismissed as the result of
2:12
geopolitics or trade Wars although those
2:15
shocks Loom on the horizon instead it's
2:17
domestic UK policy and the Chancellor's
2:19
own choices that are having such a
2:21
devastating effect the latest consumer
2:24
confidence data released today confirms
2:27
the Outlook it has slumped again with br
2:30
outlook on the state of the economy
2:31
dropping for the fifth month in a row
2:34
public expectations for the economy over
2:36
the next 3 months worsened in February
2:38
down from a low base in January even gen
2:41
Z the survey tells us traditionally the
2:43
most upbeat generation on the economy
2:45
and their own finances saw a big drop in
2:48
their optimism levels now behind all
2:50
this data lurks the stuff of a
2:52
Chancellor's nightmare inflation and
2:54
data this week showed that it's rearing
2:56
its ugly head once again coming in at 3%
2:59
for the month of January the figure was
3:00
up from 2.5% in December and higher than
3:04
Traders had been expecting inflation is
3:06
now at its highest rate since March last
3:08
year now economists identify one of the
3:10
main contributing factors as the
3:12
imposition of VAT on private school fees
3:15
so there's a policy that hurts everyone
3:17
not just those who pay to educate their
3:19
kids and the Outlook isn't very good
3:21
either with April's hike in the minimum
3:23
wage and additional National Insurance
3:25
contributions driving many firms to
3:27
raise prices 2/3 of CFOs have told the
3:30
bank of England that they will be hiking
3:32
costs with much of this passed on
3:34
directly to Consumers something that's
3:36
unlikely to tame the inflation already
3:38
lurking in the economy if inflation is a
3:41
blow for Rachel Reeds it's a headache
3:43
for the bank of England who hadn't
3:44
expected the figure to spike as much as
3:46
it did posing questions about the path
3:48
ahead for interest rate Cuts now there's
3:50
a simple truth behind all of this that
3:52
shouldn't be forgotten all of the
3:54
current problems in the economy from
3:56
looming job cuts to higher prices have
3:58
their origins in the Govern govern's
4:00
budget of October last year they set the
4:02
path that we are now on Rachel re might
4:05
be able to exaggerate her CV but there's
4:07
no massaging the state of the
4:09
economy but let me leave you with the
4:12
only piece of optimistic data that I
4:14
could find this week the City app is now
4:16
being used by over 150,000 people so
4:19
join them download it and you can stay
4:22
in the no and up toate have a great
