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Sterling Drops as BANK OF ENGLAND Hints at "AGGRESSIVE RATE CUTS" + More | Blacktower
Oct 29, 2024
Christina Brady was back with a look at the Markets, Inflation, Oil, Emmanuel Macron's warning about the EU and while the Fed in the US is in "No hurry to cut rates", a possible interest rate cut in the UK caused a drop in Sterling against the Euro and Dollar.
She and Kal also touched on the Spanish Golden Visa...which hasn't gone away just yet, and the odds of winning on the British premium bonds.
Hear Christina Brady from @blacktowerfinancialmanagem7049 every other Thursday with with Kal at 16:00 CET
For any enquiries contact info@blacktowerfm FAO Christina or get in touch through the website: www.blacktowerfm.com
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0:00
it's our bi-weekly catch up with
0:02
Christina Brady from Blacktown financial
0:04
management afternoon Christina good
0:06
afternoon uh the bank of England
0:07
Governor has been upsetting things by
0:09
saying that uh they could become a bit
0:11
more aggressive in cutting interest
0:12
rates if inflation continues to call yes
0:16
so it's gone down from over 120 that we
0:18
saw on the 1st of October to about 118 I
0:22
think it is the moment
0:24
11886 uh so if you get paid in Sterling
0:28
or you've sold a house in the UK okay
0:30
and you're bringing it over um that's
0:32
not good cuz obviously 120 is a lot
0:34
better however there is a light at the
0:36
end of the tunnel no matter what the
0:37
bank of England uh Governor says uh the
0:41
EU headline inflation is 1.8% they're
0:45
saying which is below the 2 Target for
0:47
the first time in three years and that
0:49
also means that the ECB could
0:52
aggressively cut rates which means that
0:55
the Euro would get weaker against earing
0:57
so we could see 120 or above again which
1:00
is um nothing to do with what's going on
1:02
in the
1:04
UK to what the EU are doing with rates I
1:06
was going to say because it's a little
1:07
bit weird isn't it given that all we've
1:09
been hearing about is the big debt that
1:11
France has and how badly Germany's doing
1:13
the two biggest economies struggling um
1:16
and and yet it doesn't seem to be having
1:18
a massive effect as such you know macron
1:21
has come out today and he said the EU
1:23
could die he's issued D warnings about
1:26
the BL the EU blocks economy he's saying
1:29
it's over regulated and underinvested
1:33
and I have to agree with him there uh
1:35
you know in my job the regulations that
1:38
the EU are bringing in are meaning that
1:40
I would say 75% of my time now is spent
1:45
doing paperwork it's meant to be a
1:46
paperless Society but how many forms
1:49
when clients come to do business has
1:50
gone from one form to about 10 forms and
1:53
an application form which was made be
1:55
five pages is now 25 Pages um and it's
1:59
become absolutely ridiculous it's a
2:02
burden it's me you can't work
2:04
efficiently and even dragy issued a
2:06
warning that said the EU cannot compete
2:09
with uh us and China which is true you
2:12
know us is looking to deregulate China
2:16
what regulations do they have uh the EU
2:20
I think is just like it loves paperwork
2:23
it loves giving people jobs to do even
2:25
if there are no jobs well the bigger a
2:27
be get I suppose the more paperwork
2:30
there is Mario dragi you mentioned there
2:31
who was pretty much the savior of the EU
2:34
whilst he was working with them has now
2:37
produced this report and um it's not
2:39
gone down well in all quarters and of
2:41
course macron's got something to um uh
2:44
to to chew on there because he's got to
2:45
work out uh his own situation at home
2:48
he's been struggling he's he's got an
2:50
issue with the government there you know
2:52
the finances are crap um so you know you
2:55
can understand why they latch on to
2:56
anything won't he
2:58
yeah m is trying to deflect from his own
3:02
problems he he has made a complete mess
3:04
of everything and France as you said is
3:07
not good Germany is not good um and we
3:10
could see inflation rise anyway if the
3:12
conflict in the Middle East escalates
3:14
we've also got a drought in Central
3:16
America which is mean that shipping's
3:18
Goods has become more expensive that
3:21
drought hasn't made a great deal of
3:23
headlines in Europe so far has it I know
3:25
it's been kept very very quiet but it is
3:28
going to have an impact because
3:29
obviously it means that goods are more
3:31
scarce so the price is going to go up um
3:34
Middle East as we said you know price of
3:37
oil has risen it's climbed to $76 a
3:41
barrel uh on Wednesday and some analysts
3:43
is saying it could be $80 within a few
3:46
days however Saudi Arabia have come out
3:48
and said that they have a glut of oil
3:51
and they may start exporting more to
3:53
bring the price back down so that's
3:55
quite a big variable there so have to
3:57
wait and see but if you across Europe
3:58
and the foot SC that not really too
4:00
bothered there have been some Falls
4:01
today across Europe and but generally
4:04
you know not reacting in the same way as
4:05
we've previously seen the markets react
4:07
two situations in the Middle East which
4:09
got a whole lot worse in the past few
4:11
days of course yeah if you look at the
4:13
markets the foots is flat Europe we've
4:15
got the kak and Dax down nearly 1% but
4:18
that's nothing if you compare to what's
4:21
the volatility that's going on you know
4:23
in around the world if you consider the
4:25
tension in the in the Middle East as we
4:27
said Central America which has been kept
4:29
quiet we've got the problems in the EU
4:31
with certain countries we've got the
4:33
uncertainty in America we've got China
4:36
which people are very low to invest in
4:38
even though it looks cheap at the moment
4:40
because they don't know what's on the
4:42
horizon because the figures are never
4:44
good and if we've had quite a lot of
4:46
volatility recently especially for my
4:48
job but even despite that volatility one
4:52
sector has still outperformed everything
4:53
else and that is technology we read in
4:55
the papers each day Technology's gone
4:57
down you know there's a this video isn't
5:00
doing so well however if you look at the
5:02
returns for 2024 technology if you look
5:05
at the Magnificent 7 which include Apple
5:09
Microsoft uh Amazon Etc that is up over
5:13
40% in terms of performance and if you
5:16
look at other markets gold isn't even up
5:19
you know hasn't even performed up to 30%
5:22
oil is actually down nearly 10% so we'
5:24
invested in oil we've got India which
5:27
has done quite well and
5:30
global technology rather than the uh
5:32
American magnificent 7 that's done well
5:34
as well but we read all these things in
5:37
the paper is the tech bubble about to
5:39
burst because we saw that before um I'm
5:41
not so sure these companies are doing
5:44
very very well um I'm not sure about
5:47
companies that concentrate solely on AI
5:50
I think we've got aidia which is slowly
5:53
which is has really cornered the market
5:55
in AI however as we know when someone
5:58
does that there's usually come companies
6:00
that come up quite quickly and challenge
6:02
their dominance in that market so we'll
6:04
have to wait and see but for anyone
6:06
investing at the moment well open AI
6:08
aren't they they're they're raising
6:09
about $6.6 billion do in funding valued
6:12
about 157 billion of course this is the
6:14
startup behind chat GP which wasn't a
6:17
for-profit business but now is going to
6:19
be yeah so we're going to have to see if
6:22
if another company comes on the market
6:24
that can challenge them and is doing
6:26
very well then we'll see their share
6:28
price fall but at the moment uh they're
6:31
called The Magnificent 7 that is
6:33
alphabet Amazon Apple meta Microsoft
6:36
Nvidia and Tesla Tesla's quite volatile
6:39
because as we know Elon mus says
6:41
different things he could be back in
6:42
court again today couldn't he for um for
6:44
how um X or what was known as Twitter
6:47
hasn't been performing in the way that
6:49
it was previously uh I think he sacked
6:51
about 80% of the compliance staff when
6:53
he started I just looked at where the
6:55
biggest bill was I think and went right
6:56
we'll got that um but so they haven't
6:58
been um perhaps performing in that area
7:01
as well as they might uh since they've
7:02
been called X and he took over and he
7:04
missed a court appearance didn't he uh
7:06
in the states the hoping you'll show up
7:08
today I don't think he I don't think
7:09
he's too bothered I really don't but
7:12
what you have to remember is at the
7:13
moment technology is at the fraw but if
7:15
you look over time Winn has changed
7:18
through in time if you look just like oh
7:20
what should we say
7:22
2010 okay the the top companies were
7:25
China and commodities so you had Exxon
7:28
you had uh BHP you had lots and lots
7:32
Nestle raw Dutch Shell China
7:35
Construction Company you know in the TW
7:38
2000s we had the uh the technology
7:42
bubble we had Microsoft there we had but
7:44
we had Walmart these aren't in the top
7:46
10 anym since the pandemic it's mostly
7:49
mostly been since the pandemic big
7:51
farmer and um and the Tex as you
7:55
mentioned it has so the question is how
7:58
much longer is this going to carry we
7:59
don't know obviously we had a a crystal
8:01
ball we'd all be multi multi million you
8:04
know if we could we could work out what
8:05
what was going on with this Market
8:06
volatility then we you know we'd only
8:08
have to do it for a bit and then we'd be
8:09
rich and not have to do it anymore yeah
8:11
but you you've got an example if you
8:13
look at a company called Cisco which
8:16
from years ago was a really really you
8:18
know in the 2000s it was trading uh it
8:22
was overvalued by about 60% to sales and
8:25
it's never ever come back it's the price
8:27
has just dropped and dropped and Nidia
8:30
it looks cheap it's it's basically it is
8:33
valued at 27 times sales but still that
8:35
is not cheap so Cisco has never ever hit
8:39
its peak that was in in the late well
8:42
early TW 2000s um so you have to be very
8:45
very careful what you're going to do and
8:48
what you're going to invest in but I
8:49
think there's still some more Headway on
8:51
the tech markets and I know there's been
8:53
lots of talk about will this Bubble
8:55
Burst but at the moment there is so much
8:58
um a is still driving still driving it
9:02
absolutely for a while so I think we
9:03
still got that driving the market so so
9:05
just beware and the main thing I think
9:07
you have to say and I have to say for
9:08
everyone where whever you're investing
9:11
is diversifying never put all your eggs
9:13
in one basket I know it sounds like an
9:15
old saying but it's true um as we saw in
9:18
2007 2008 lots of people have put all
9:21
their money in property thinking the
9:23
returns were going to carry on forever
9:24
and suddenly they were asset rich and
9:26
cash P they had no cash they couldn't
9:28
sell their property is some of them were
9:30
destitute you've got to make sure that
9:32
you've got a very very good mix and if
9:35
you are investing in the markets
9:37
diversify is key so if one market
9:39
doesn't perform so well unless there's a
9:41
global downturn you're going to you know
9:44
compensate in other markets and I think
9:46
that really is key uh especially if you
9:49
are new to the markets make sure
9:51
whatever you go into is quite
9:52
Diversified and at Black Tower we always
9:54
look to diversify as much as possible
9:57
within a client's risk profile Christina
9:59
br from Blacktown financial management
10:01
with us this afternoon looking at the
10:03
world of finance and business and
10:06
Investments and let's start then where
10:09
we left off with property been seeing
10:12
some reports about The Second Home
10:14
Market the B toet market in Britain
10:15
especially in coastal areas uh starting
10:19
to look a little bit different than it
10:20
has in recent years people starting to
10:22
worry about that budget coming up at the
10:24
end of the month in Britain I think I
10:26
think they are and I think rightly so if
10:28
labor get their way second home owners
10:30
are going to be penalized and people who
10:32
rent out property they seem to have a be
10:35
in their Bonnet about the rental market
10:37
uh they're going to make it harder
10:39
they're going to increase capital gains
10:40
tax when you sell
10:42
properties so people are looking to
10:45
offload and at the moment it's a buyer
10:47
Market in the UK house prices across the
10:49
board Fallen by about 5% uh even though
10:52
mortgage rates have come down and I
10:55
think it could fall even further so it's
10:58
very very difficult in the UK the
11:00
problem is governments always look for
11:01
someone to blame when they have problems
11:03
so in the UK they're looking at various
11:05
things they've got this alleged black
11:07
hole of 22 billion which no one can
11:09
account for on now labor of stopped
11:11
mentioning because I think it was made
11:12
up they were called out they they were
11:14
called out
11:15
by part confence by the Civil Service
11:19
everyone's called them out so they've
11:20
screwed over pensioners by getting rid
11:22
of their winter fuel allowance which is
11:25
only 300 uh pounds per person even
11:29
though K starm has taken 500 quid in
11:31
free gifts every day since he's got into
11:34
Power he's just given a Lo back has he
11:37
he just gave a load back only 6,000 if
11:39
you're not 107,000 he got prior this
11:42
year so the UK yes and even if you look
11:45
at Spain you know the Spanish government
11:47
has been um blaming people that rent out
11:50
their properties uh for the problems
11:52
that are going on on in Spain as well
11:54
they always look to someone um but if
11:56
you look in Spain we had Pedro Sanchez
12:00
it was over 180 days ago that he said he
12:03
was scrapping the golden Visa yet Spain
12:06
keeps it keeps on running into obstacles
12:08
he hasn't managed to do
12:10
this tag it on to other bills he getting
12:12
it through parament trying to tag it on
12:15
but every time he tries to tag it on the
12:16
bill suddenly that bill hasn't got
12:19
enough support to move forward so at the
12:21
moment the golden visas are here uh
12:24
there's been a rush of people to try and
12:26
get visas most of them have the rush has
12:28
been from Chinese people people
12:29
unfortunate oh I shouldn't say that but
12:31
you know it's not Europeans or us or U
12:35
UK people so the problem isn't because
12:38
of Bret it or anything to do with that
12:41
but mind you that said the the new data
12:44
here is we heard on the news on Bay
12:46
radio International the other morning
12:48
shows that British Nationals Remain the
12:50
main foreign property buyers in Spain
12:52
yeah second half of 2024 they accounted
12:55
for nearly 15% of all property sales and
12:57
purchases in Spain
12:59
and in purchases UK buyers make up the
13:01
largest number at 88.4% followed by the
13:04
Germans at 7even and French at 5.2 and
13:08
according to Lacy's population figures
13:10
uh nearly 300,000 Brits live in Spain
13:14
permanently that's legally I'm sure
13:16
there's some that's what's on the padron
13:18
right yeah they're the only one the ones
13:19
that are on the padron yeah okay and the
13:22
the main places to buy are the bolic
13:24
islands where a third of properties go
13:26
to have been bought by non Spanish uh
13:29
Canary Islands with 31% next is the
13:31
Valencia region uh which is at 28.8
13:34
followed by meria at 23.6 and and Lucia
13:38
is down the bottom at
13:41
13.7% uh but it still shows that we are
13:43
Spain is still very popular with the
13:45
Brits and I think with labor coming into
13:47
Power if they do crack down on the
13:49
middle classes and especially on
13:51
pensioners and especially increasing
13:53
capital gains tax we are going to see
13:55
those that meet visa requirements for a
13:58
non-lucrative Visa which I think for a
14:00
married couple is around having to have
14:02
an income from non work rated sources of
14:05
at least 33,000 Euros uh we are going to
14:09
see a lot of people moving here to
14:11
escape what is going to be a punitive
14:14
tax system in the UK and that's despite
14:16
e all vat going back on those food items
14:20
that we we've had respite from for the
14:22
last couple of years yep Spain is still
14:24
very popular you can understand why if
14:26
you compare it to the UK you know most
14:28
most areas
14:29
are safe uh we've got good weather it's
14:33
cheaper than the
14:34
UK there's a lot going for it and the
14:37
Spanish are very welcoming most of the
14:39
time obviously we've had these protests
14:40
against tourists but the ones in the
14:42
Canary Island were organized by a
14:44
British man who lived there so it's not
14:46
necessarily the Spanish that are
14:48
complaining so much however I have to
14:50
say that I live in Javier and this year
14:53
there were just too many people here it
14:56
cannot carry on growing the roads can't
14:58
support it the infrastructure structure
14:59
can't support it and it's not only here
15:01
if you look at the even in land a bit
15:03
they had more tourists than ever before
15:05
and the Spanish tourist figures have
15:06
come out to to actually say yes that is
15:09
true you know tourism in Spain was at
15:11
its highest level yeah um yeah and still
15:14
Rising continuing to rise for 2024 and
15:17
probably next year as well but um we're
15:19
not quite sure what the right model is
15:22
that um everybody's going to agree on
15:24
for it to sort itself out no we need
15:27
tourists we need them you know business
15:30
if you look in New Yorker um when they
15:32
did all the protests and tourists didn't
15:35
come so much the bars didn't make money
15:38
quite a few bars closed and there was
15:40
all this thing we don't want British
15:41
tourists but when they didn't come the
15:44
spending was down significantly and we
15:46
had a you know a huge number of bars in
15:48
New yor of closing and restaurants
15:50
because they just didn't have people
15:51
eating the Brits when they come abroad
15:54
they tend to eat earlier in the day so
15:56
most of them go to the restaurants at 5
15:58
six 7 the Spanish Etc don't go out to
16:02
eat till 9 or 10 so if you're going to
16:04
get rid of the Brit you've got no one
16:06
eating out till later in the even well
16:08
there's also the fact that other other
16:10
countries northern European countries
16:12
generally they when they come to Spain
16:14
they don't eat out a lot of them no they
16:16
don't they eat in and also Spanish do
16:18
they tend to have family meals at home
16:20
whereas British people like to go out
16:21
they like the socializing so I think we
16:24
there you know countries that are
16:26
against tourists have to be very very
16:27
careful and obviously you can only take
16:30
so many before your country can't take
16:32
any more but you have to understand that
16:34
they are especially in Spain the main
16:37
generator of revenue for most of the
16:38
people that live in Spain but you there
16:40
are the KnockOn effects as we've seen
16:42
and and a lot of that's been driven by
16:44
uh The Nomad visa and and people buying
16:46
properties uh since the pandemic and and
16:48
moving and living here on European wages
16:51
which means that people locally just
16:52
can't compete because wages in southern
16:54
Europe are just nowhere near what they
16:56
are in the north but um let's look at
16:59
something else that you mentioned when
17:01
we were preparing for today uh the UK
17:03
odds of winning on premium bonds have
17:05
they got better oh gosh no they haven't
17:08
they've got
17:10
they they haven't right it says here it
17:13
says if you invest in th000 in premium
17:16
ons you will have to wait around
17:18
3,500 years for a 5050 chance of winning
17:23
£1,000 right well we've got my grand
17:26
we've got my grand so does that still
17:27
count those years still count I wonder
17:30
our grandchildren might win something
17:33
listen to the odds for winning the
17:35
jackpot 1 Million jackpot a 5050 chance
17:39
of winning a 1 Million jackpot on the
17:41
premium rounds would require a
17:43
staggering weight of
17:45
3.5 million years what so anyone that's
17:50
holding on to your premium
17:53
bonds they said you know even if you max
17:56
out your Holdings to 50,000
17:59
you are you know you the the most chance
18:01
you've got is winning a thousand so
18:04
those who've been holding on to their
18:05
premium bonds it's really not a good
18:07
return on Capital basically the value of
18:10
those bonds has gone down dramatically
18:12
because of the way inflation has eaten
18:13
into them however that people get them
18:16
because they think they're secure um
18:18
they are protected by the UK government
18:21
so you can always get your money back
18:22
but you could have gone into nsna saving
18:25
bonds which are government protected um
18:28
and they're offering 4% it's not a lot
18:30
but they're offering 4% which is more
18:31
than you'll ever get with premium bonds
18:33
or even you know Blacktail we've got
18:35
Capital guaranteed products that are
18:37
Sterling at the moment are paying
18:38
between four and 5% guaranteed for the
18:40
next three to five years so that is a
18:43
better place to put your money than in
18:45
premium bonds so anyone who thinks oh
18:48
yeah premium bonds are they are they the
18:50
right way to go but they are for a
18:53
certain extent because they're not
18:54
there's no risk to your capitals they're
18:56
backed by the UK treas treasury used
18:59
didn't they I guess people have just put
19:00
them in the draw and forgotten about
19:01
them now yes yeah and no one ever won
19:03
from them so you know that's something I
19:06
didn't realize the odds were so bad so
19:09
that's not good at I never really looked
19:10
at it but that was a bit shocking when I
19:12
looked at it our bi-weekly catch up with
19:14
Christina Brady from Black Tower
19:16
financial management been looking at
19:17
things in the US Christina and um the
19:21
Federal Reserve chair there Jerome
19:23
Powell has said that he isn't in a hurry
19:24
to bring interest rates down which of
19:26
course would affect the rest of the
19:28
planet but they got some worrying things
19:30
uh upcoming the job market situation in
19:32
the states of course the Port strike
19:34
which has started in the past week and
19:36
clear up from Huracan Helen and not to I
19:39
mention of course as we have already the
19:40
situation in the Middle East um so uh
19:42
perhaps we're not going to see that rate
19:44
that was maybe expected more than two
19:46
weeks or so ago yeah I don't think we
19:48
will actually the Port strike in America
19:50
is affecting the import of Spanish olive
19:52
oil is causing a huge problem so that
19:56
you know everything could have a knock
19:57
on effect but no the EU
19:59
sorry the US is in no rush to cut cut
20:01
interest rates it was expected to be
20:03
quicker than it is um I think the UK if
20:07
it does accelerate rate Cuts he's acting
20:09
too hastily um when you cut rates it can
20:12
lead to a recession so they have to be
20:15
very very careful and I think that's why
20:17
the the US is putting the brakes on rate
20:19
C it doesn't want a recession it's so
20:21
near recession and you know the UK is
20:24
the EU is and and I would you know
20:27
caution Russian in and cussing rates too
20:29
soon or too aggressively and that
20:31
situation in the Middle East not just
20:33
the price of oil but also getting things
20:35
through the Panama Canal if you think
20:37
just back to the pandemic or when the
20:39
canal was blocked for a little while the
20:40
issues that we get under those sort of
20:42
circumstances can be major have a major
20:45
influence on how companies can manage
20:48
their situations it does yeah you know
20:51
once it takes an extra 10 days at least
20:54
um to get Goods through if there's
20:55
problems and you can't use the canal I
20:57
don't think the US government at the
20:59
moment is strong enough to do anything
21:00
to force Iran to stop and I know people
21:03
are going to some people are going to
21:04
hate me for say this but I think if
21:06
Trump was in power he knew how to
21:08
control Iran um and I don't think it
21:11
would have escalated to such a degree
21:14
but now it has we just need to hope that
21:17
it doesn't spread even further um
21:20
certainly the idea seems to that one
21:22
it's just it's just horrible for
21:23
everyone indeed the idea seems to be
21:26
that um what's happening now is
21:28
happening now because of course the
21:30
American elections are due next month
21:31
and Mr Trump could well be back in power
21:34
it's still pretty much neck and neck
21:35
exactly and they want to get it over the
21:37
all done before he gets into Power
21:38
because they know they can't do it when
21:39
he's there and at the moment Biden is
21:42
spending most of his time on the beach
21:44
and he's a enjoying his old age as he
21:46
should um meanwhile he should he should
21:49
have done that ages ago you know we had
21:50
elder abuse in the U in the US and I
21:53
think everyone recognizes that now if
21:55
you'd like to get in touch with
21:56
Christine you can do it via the usual
21:57
Bay number number 6844 584 for the
22:01
WhatsApp or email Studio Bay radio.fm or
22:04
you can go direct to the Black Tower FM
22:07
website of the contact details okay
22:09
could you please if you do just put
22:11
Christina Brady if you uh go into our
22:14
website for in a contact sheet or
22:15
anything because then it comes straight
22:16
through to me I've had quite a few
22:18
inquiries in the last week and all of
22:20
them have put attention to Christina
22:22
Brady so it means it comes to me
22:23
instantaneously and I can get back to
22:25
you if not it goes to a central desk
22:28
where they will call you and find out
22:29
what you need and who you need to talk
22:31
about talk to so if you want it to be
22:34
answered put for Christina Brady and
22:36
then when I talk to you you can say you
22:38
heard me on Bay radio or whatever so
22:40
yeah info@ blackt fm.com or you can
22:43
always look us up on the website you can
22:45
call the office which is 9655 a212 if
22:48
we're not there please leave a message
22:50
we do get back to everyone we've got an
22:52
answer machine which may have my creepy
22:54
voice on there telling you to leave a
22:56
message I'm not sure but we will get
22:58
back you remember when we cover the
22:59
whole of Spain we and most countries in
23:02
Europe us UK so if you've got anything
23:04
at all uh you can always come to me and
23:07
I'll pass it on to the appropriate
23:08
person in the country that you're live
23:10
in um and that's all I've got to say for
23:12
this week I think excellent okay black
23:15
toow fm.com you'll see the contact us
23:18
box at the top of the website there and
23:19
plenty of information about what we've
23:21
been talking about today and of course
23:23
all the things that Black Tower offer as
23:25
well and we'll be back with Christina in
23:27
a couple of weeks thank you very much
23:29
indeed
23:36
[Music]
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