0:00
it's our bi-weekly catch up with
0:02
Christina Brady from Blacktown financial
0:04
management afternoon Christina good
0:06
afternoon uh the bank of England
0:07
Governor has been upsetting things by
0:09
saying that uh they could become a bit
0:11
more aggressive in cutting interest
0:12
rates if inflation continues to call yes
0:16
so it's gone down from over 120 that we
0:18
saw on the 1st of October to about 118 I
0:22
think it is the moment
0:24
11886 uh so if you get paid in Sterling
0:28
or you've sold a house in the UK okay
0:30
and you're bringing it over um that's
0:32
not good cuz obviously 120 is a lot
0:34
better however there is a light at the
0:36
end of the tunnel no matter what the
0:37
bank of England uh Governor says uh the
0:41
EU headline inflation is 1.8% they're
0:45
saying which is below the 2 Target for
0:47
the first time in three years and that
0:49
also means that the ECB could
0:52
aggressively cut rates which means that
0:55
the Euro would get weaker against earing
0:57
so we could see 120 or above again which
1:00
is um nothing to do with what's going on
1:04
UK to what the EU are doing with rates I
1:06
was going to say because it's a little
1:07
bit weird isn't it given that all we've
1:09
been hearing about is the big debt that
1:11
France has and how badly Germany's doing
1:13
the two biggest economies struggling um
1:16
and and yet it doesn't seem to be having
1:18
a massive effect as such you know macron
1:21
has come out today and he said the EU
1:23
could die he's issued D warnings about
1:26
the BL the EU blocks economy he's saying
1:29
it's over regulated and underinvested
1:33
and I have to agree with him there uh
1:35
you know in my job the regulations that
1:38
the EU are bringing in are meaning that
1:40
I would say 75% of my time now is spent
1:45
doing paperwork it's meant to be a
1:46
paperless Society but how many forms
1:49
when clients come to do business has
1:50
gone from one form to about 10 forms and
1:53
an application form which was made be
1:55
five pages is now 25 Pages um and it's
1:59
become absolutely ridiculous it's a
2:02
burden it's me you can't work
2:04
efficiently and even dragy issued a
2:06
warning that said the EU cannot compete
2:09
with uh us and China which is true you
2:12
know us is looking to deregulate China
2:16
what regulations do they have uh the EU
2:20
I think is just like it loves paperwork
2:23
it loves giving people jobs to do even
2:25
if there are no jobs well the bigger a
2:27
be get I suppose the more paperwork
2:30
there is Mario dragi you mentioned there
2:31
who was pretty much the savior of the EU
2:34
whilst he was working with them has now
2:37
produced this report and um it's not
2:39
gone down well in all quarters and of
2:41
course macron's got something to um uh
2:44
to to chew on there because he's got to
2:45
work out uh his own situation at home
2:48
he's been struggling he's he's got an
2:50
issue with the government there you know
2:52
the finances are crap um so you know you
2:55
can understand why they latch on to
2:58
yeah m is trying to deflect from his own
3:02
problems he he has made a complete mess
3:04
of everything and France as you said is
3:07
not good Germany is not good um and we
3:10
could see inflation rise anyway if the
3:12
conflict in the Middle East escalates
3:14
we've also got a drought in Central
3:16
America which is mean that shipping's
3:18
Goods has become more expensive that
3:21
drought hasn't made a great deal of
3:23
headlines in Europe so far has it I know
3:25
it's been kept very very quiet but it is
3:28
going to have an impact because
3:29
obviously it means that goods are more
3:31
scarce so the price is going to go up um
3:34
Middle East as we said you know price of
3:37
oil has risen it's climbed to $76 a
3:41
barrel uh on Wednesday and some analysts
3:43
is saying it could be $80 within a few
3:46
days however Saudi Arabia have come out
3:48
and said that they have a glut of oil
3:51
and they may start exporting more to
3:53
bring the price back down so that's
3:55
quite a big variable there so have to
3:57
wait and see but if you across Europe
3:58
and the foot SC that not really too
4:00
bothered there have been some Falls
4:01
today across Europe and but generally
4:04
you know not reacting in the same way as
4:05
we've previously seen the markets react
4:07
two situations in the Middle East which
4:09
got a whole lot worse in the past few
4:11
days of course yeah if you look at the
4:13
markets the foots is flat Europe we've
4:15
got the kak and Dax down nearly 1% but
4:18
that's nothing if you compare to what's
4:21
the volatility that's going on you know
4:23
in around the world if you consider the
4:25
tension in the in the Middle East as we
4:27
said Central America which has been kept
4:29
quiet we've got the problems in the EU
4:31
with certain countries we've got the
4:33
uncertainty in America we've got China
4:36
which people are very low to invest in
4:38
even though it looks cheap at the moment
4:40
because they don't know what's on the
4:42
horizon because the figures are never
4:44
good and if we've had quite a lot of
4:46
volatility recently especially for my
4:48
job but even despite that volatility one
4:52
sector has still outperformed everything
4:53
else and that is technology we read in
4:55
the papers each day Technology's gone
4:57
down you know there's a this video isn't
5:00
doing so well however if you look at the
5:02
returns for 2024 technology if you look
5:05
at the Magnificent 7 which include Apple
5:09
Microsoft uh Amazon Etc that is up over
5:13
40% in terms of performance and if you
5:16
look at other markets gold isn't even up
5:19
you know hasn't even performed up to 30%
5:22
oil is actually down nearly 10% so we'
5:24
invested in oil we've got India which
5:27
has done quite well and
5:30
global technology rather than the uh
5:32
American magnificent 7 that's done well
5:34
as well but we read all these things in
5:37
the paper is the tech bubble about to
5:39
burst because we saw that before um I'm
5:41
not so sure these companies are doing
5:44
very very well um I'm not sure about
5:47
companies that concentrate solely on AI
5:50
I think we've got aidia which is slowly
5:53
which is has really cornered the market
5:55
in AI however as we know when someone
5:58
does that there's usually come companies
6:00
that come up quite quickly and challenge
6:02
their dominance in that market so we'll
6:04
have to wait and see but for anyone
6:06
investing at the moment well open AI
6:08
aren't they they're they're raising
6:09
about $6.6 billion do in funding valued
6:12
about 157 billion of course this is the
6:14
startup behind chat GP which wasn't a
6:17
for-profit business but now is going to
6:19
be yeah so we're going to have to see if
6:22
if another company comes on the market
6:24
that can challenge them and is doing
6:26
very well then we'll see their share
6:28
price fall but at the moment uh they're
6:31
called The Magnificent 7 that is
6:33
alphabet Amazon Apple meta Microsoft
6:36
Nvidia and Tesla Tesla's quite volatile
6:39
because as we know Elon mus says
6:41
different things he could be back in
6:42
court again today couldn't he for um for
6:44
how um X or what was known as Twitter
6:47
hasn't been performing in the way that
6:49
it was previously uh I think he sacked
6:51
about 80% of the compliance staff when
6:53
he started I just looked at where the
6:55
biggest bill was I think and went right
6:56
we'll got that um but so they haven't
6:58
been um perhaps performing in that area
7:01
as well as they might uh since they've
7:02
been called X and he took over and he
7:04
missed a court appearance didn't he uh
7:06
in the states the hoping you'll show up
7:08
today I don't think he I don't think
7:09
he's too bothered I really don't but
7:12
what you have to remember is at the
7:13
moment technology is at the fraw but if
7:15
you look over time Winn has changed
7:18
through in time if you look just like oh
7:22
2010 okay the the top companies were
7:25
China and commodities so you had Exxon
7:28
you had uh BHP you had lots and lots
7:32
Nestle raw Dutch Shell China
7:35
Construction Company you know in the TW
7:38
2000s we had the uh the technology
7:42
bubble we had Microsoft there we had but
7:44
we had Walmart these aren't in the top
7:46
10 anym since the pandemic it's mostly
7:49
mostly been since the pandemic big
7:51
farmer and um and the Tex as you
7:55
mentioned it has so the question is how
7:58
much longer is this going to carry we
7:59
don't know obviously we had a a crystal
8:01
ball we'd all be multi multi million you
8:04
know if we could we could work out what
8:05
what was going on with this Market
8:06
volatility then we you know we'd only
8:08
have to do it for a bit and then we'd be
8:09
rich and not have to do it anymore yeah
8:11
but you you've got an example if you
8:13
look at a company called Cisco which
8:16
from years ago was a really really you
8:18
know in the 2000s it was trading uh it
8:22
was overvalued by about 60% to sales and
8:25
it's never ever come back it's the price
8:27
has just dropped and dropped and Nidia
8:30
it looks cheap it's it's basically it is
8:33
valued at 27 times sales but still that
8:35
is not cheap so Cisco has never ever hit
8:39
its peak that was in in the late well
8:42
early TW 2000s um so you have to be very
8:45
very careful what you're going to do and
8:48
what you're going to invest in but I
8:49
think there's still some more Headway on
8:51
the tech markets and I know there's been
8:53
lots of talk about will this Bubble
8:55
Burst but at the moment there is so much
8:58
um a is still driving still driving it
9:02
absolutely for a while so I think we
9:03
still got that driving the market so so
9:05
just beware and the main thing I think
9:07
you have to say and I have to say for
9:08
everyone where whever you're investing
9:11
is diversifying never put all your eggs
9:13
in one basket I know it sounds like an
9:15
old saying but it's true um as we saw in
9:18
2007 2008 lots of people have put all
9:21
their money in property thinking the
9:23
returns were going to carry on forever
9:24
and suddenly they were asset rich and
9:26
cash P they had no cash they couldn't
9:28
sell their property is some of them were
9:30
destitute you've got to make sure that
9:32
you've got a very very good mix and if
9:35
you are investing in the markets
9:37
diversify is key so if one market
9:39
doesn't perform so well unless there's a
9:41
global downturn you're going to you know
9:44
compensate in other markets and I think
9:46
that really is key uh especially if you
9:49
are new to the markets make sure
9:51
whatever you go into is quite
9:52
Diversified and at Black Tower we always
9:54
look to diversify as much as possible
9:57
within a client's risk profile Christina
9:59
br from Blacktown financial management
10:01
with us this afternoon looking at the
10:03
world of finance and business and
10:06
Investments and let's start then where
10:09
we left off with property been seeing
10:12
some reports about The Second Home
10:14
Market the B toet market in Britain
10:15
especially in coastal areas uh starting
10:19
to look a little bit different than it
10:20
has in recent years people starting to
10:22
worry about that budget coming up at the
10:24
end of the month in Britain I think I
10:26
think they are and I think rightly so if
10:28
labor get their way second home owners
10:30
are going to be penalized and people who
10:32
rent out property they seem to have a be
10:35
in their Bonnet about the rental market
10:37
uh they're going to make it harder
10:39
they're going to increase capital gains
10:42
properties so people are looking to
10:45
offload and at the moment it's a buyer
10:47
Market in the UK house prices across the
10:49
board Fallen by about 5% uh even though
10:52
mortgage rates have come down and I
10:55
think it could fall even further so it's
10:58
very very difficult in the UK the
11:00
problem is governments always look for
11:01
someone to blame when they have problems
11:03
so in the UK they're looking at various
11:05
things they've got this alleged black
11:07
hole of 22 billion which no one can
11:09
account for on now labor of stopped
11:11
mentioning because I think it was made
11:12
up they were called out they they were
11:15
by part confence by the Civil Service
11:19
everyone's called them out so they've
11:20
screwed over pensioners by getting rid
11:22
of their winter fuel allowance which is
11:25
only 300 uh pounds per person even
11:29
though K starm has taken 500 quid in
11:31
free gifts every day since he's got into
11:34
Power he's just given a Lo back has he
11:37
he just gave a load back only 6,000 if
11:39
you're not 107,000 he got prior this
11:42
year so the UK yes and even if you look
11:45
at Spain you know the Spanish government
11:47
has been um blaming people that rent out
11:50
their properties uh for the problems
11:52
that are going on on in Spain as well
11:54
they always look to someone um but if
11:56
you look in Spain we had Pedro Sanchez
12:00
it was over 180 days ago that he said he
12:03
was scrapping the golden Visa yet Spain
12:06
keeps it keeps on running into obstacles
12:08
he hasn't managed to do
12:10
this tag it on to other bills he getting
12:12
it through parament trying to tag it on
12:15
but every time he tries to tag it on the
12:16
bill suddenly that bill hasn't got
12:19
enough support to move forward so at the
12:21
moment the golden visas are here uh
12:24
there's been a rush of people to try and
12:26
get visas most of them have the rush has
12:28
been from Chinese people people
12:29
unfortunate oh I shouldn't say that but
12:31
you know it's not Europeans or us or U
12:35
UK people so the problem isn't because
12:38
of Bret it or anything to do with that
12:41
but mind you that said the the new data
12:44
here is we heard on the news on Bay
12:46
radio International the other morning
12:48
shows that British Nationals Remain the
12:50
main foreign property buyers in Spain
12:52
yeah second half of 2024 they accounted
12:55
for nearly 15% of all property sales and
12:59
and in purchases UK buyers make up the
13:01
largest number at 88.4% followed by the
13:04
Germans at 7even and French at 5.2 and
13:08
according to Lacy's population figures
13:10
uh nearly 300,000 Brits live in Spain
13:14
permanently that's legally I'm sure
13:16
there's some that's what's on the padron
13:18
right yeah they're the only one the ones
13:19
that are on the padron yeah okay and the
13:22
the main places to buy are the bolic
13:24
islands where a third of properties go
13:26
to have been bought by non Spanish uh
13:29
Canary Islands with 31% next is the
13:31
Valencia region uh which is at 28.8
13:34
followed by meria at 23.6 and and Lucia
13:38
is down the bottom at
13:41
13.7% uh but it still shows that we are
13:43
Spain is still very popular with the
13:45
Brits and I think with labor coming into
13:47
Power if they do crack down on the
13:49
middle classes and especially on
13:51
pensioners and especially increasing
13:53
capital gains tax we are going to see
13:55
those that meet visa requirements for a
13:58
non-lucrative Visa which I think for a
14:00
married couple is around having to have
14:02
an income from non work rated sources of
14:05
at least 33,000 Euros uh we are going to
14:09
see a lot of people moving here to
14:11
escape what is going to be a punitive
14:14
tax system in the UK and that's despite
14:16
e all vat going back on those food items
14:20
that we we've had respite from for the
14:22
last couple of years yep Spain is still
14:24
very popular you can understand why if
14:26
you compare it to the UK you know most
14:29
are safe uh we've got good weather it's
14:34
UK there's a lot going for it and the
14:37
Spanish are very welcoming most of the
14:39
time obviously we've had these protests
14:40
against tourists but the ones in the
14:42
Canary Island were organized by a
14:44
British man who lived there so it's not
14:46
necessarily the Spanish that are
14:48
complaining so much however I have to
14:50
say that I live in Javier and this year
14:53
there were just too many people here it
14:56
cannot carry on growing the roads can't
14:58
support it the infrastructure structure
14:59
can't support it and it's not only here
15:01
if you look at the even in land a bit
15:03
they had more tourists than ever before
15:05
and the Spanish tourist figures have
15:06
come out to to actually say yes that is
15:09
true you know tourism in Spain was at
15:11
its highest level yeah um yeah and still
15:14
Rising continuing to rise for 2024 and
15:17
probably next year as well but um we're
15:19
not quite sure what the right model is
15:22
that um everybody's going to agree on
15:24
for it to sort itself out no we need
15:27
tourists we need them you know business
15:30
if you look in New Yorker um when they
15:32
did all the protests and tourists didn't
15:35
come so much the bars didn't make money
15:38
quite a few bars closed and there was
15:40
all this thing we don't want British
15:41
tourists but when they didn't come the
15:44
spending was down significantly and we
15:46
had a you know a huge number of bars in
15:48
New yor of closing and restaurants
15:50
because they just didn't have people
15:51
eating the Brits when they come abroad
15:54
they tend to eat earlier in the day so
15:56
most of them go to the restaurants at 5
15:58
six 7 the Spanish Etc don't go out to
16:02
eat till 9 or 10 so if you're going to
16:04
get rid of the Brit you've got no one
16:06
eating out till later in the even well
16:08
there's also the fact that other other
16:10
countries northern European countries
16:12
generally they when they come to Spain
16:14
they don't eat out a lot of them no they
16:16
don't they eat in and also Spanish do
16:18
they tend to have family meals at home
16:20
whereas British people like to go out
16:21
they like the socializing so I think we
16:24
there you know countries that are
16:26
against tourists have to be very very
16:27
careful and obviously you can only take
16:30
so many before your country can't take
16:32
any more but you have to understand that
16:34
they are especially in Spain the main
16:37
generator of revenue for most of the
16:38
people that live in Spain but you there
16:40
are the KnockOn effects as we've seen
16:42
and and a lot of that's been driven by
16:44
uh The Nomad visa and and people buying
16:46
properties uh since the pandemic and and
16:48
moving and living here on European wages
16:51
which means that people locally just
16:52
can't compete because wages in southern
16:54
Europe are just nowhere near what they
16:56
are in the north but um let's look at
16:59
something else that you mentioned when
17:01
we were preparing for today uh the UK
17:03
odds of winning on premium bonds have
17:05
they got better oh gosh no they haven't
17:10
they they haven't right it says here it
17:13
says if you invest in th000 in premium
17:16
ons you will have to wait around
17:18
3,500 years for a 5050 chance of winning
17:23
£1,000 right well we've got my grand
17:26
we've got my grand so does that still
17:27
count those years still count I wonder
17:30
our grandchildren might win something
17:33
listen to the odds for winning the
17:35
jackpot 1 Million jackpot a 5050 chance
17:39
of winning a 1 Million jackpot on the
17:41
premium rounds would require a
17:43
staggering weight of
17:45
3.5 million years what so anyone that's
17:50
holding on to your premium
17:53
bonds they said you know even if you max
17:56
out your Holdings to 50,000
17:59
you are you know you the the most chance
18:01
you've got is winning a thousand so
18:04
those who've been holding on to their
18:05
premium bonds it's really not a good
18:07
return on Capital basically the value of
18:10
those bonds has gone down dramatically
18:12
because of the way inflation has eaten
18:13
into them however that people get them
18:16
because they think they're secure um
18:18
they are protected by the UK government
18:21
so you can always get your money back
18:22
but you could have gone into nsna saving
18:25
bonds which are government protected um
18:28
and they're offering 4% it's not a lot
18:30
but they're offering 4% which is more
18:31
than you'll ever get with premium bonds
18:33
or even you know Blacktail we've got
18:35
Capital guaranteed products that are
18:37
Sterling at the moment are paying
18:38
between four and 5% guaranteed for the
18:40
next three to five years so that is a
18:43
better place to put your money than in
18:45
premium bonds so anyone who thinks oh
18:48
yeah premium bonds are they are they the
18:50
right way to go but they are for a
18:53
certain extent because they're not
18:54
there's no risk to your capitals they're
18:56
backed by the UK treas treasury used
18:59
didn't they I guess people have just put
19:00
them in the draw and forgotten about
19:01
them now yes yeah and no one ever won
19:03
from them so you know that's something I
19:06
didn't realize the odds were so bad so
19:09
that's not good at I never really looked
19:10
at it but that was a bit shocking when I
19:12
looked at it our bi-weekly catch up with
19:14
Christina Brady from Black Tower
19:16
financial management been looking at
19:17
things in the US Christina and um the
19:21
Federal Reserve chair there Jerome
19:23
Powell has said that he isn't in a hurry
19:24
to bring interest rates down which of
19:26
course would affect the rest of the
19:28
planet but they got some worrying things
19:30
uh upcoming the job market situation in
19:32
the states of course the Port strike
19:34
which has started in the past week and
19:36
clear up from Huracan Helen and not to I
19:39
mention of course as we have already the
19:40
situation in the Middle East um so uh
19:42
perhaps we're not going to see that rate
19:44
that was maybe expected more than two
19:46
weeks or so ago yeah I don't think we
19:48
will actually the Port strike in America
19:50
is affecting the import of Spanish olive
19:52
oil is causing a huge problem so that
19:56
you know everything could have a knock
19:57
on effect but no the EU
19:59
sorry the US is in no rush to cut cut
20:01
interest rates it was expected to be
20:03
quicker than it is um I think the UK if
20:07
it does accelerate rate Cuts he's acting
20:09
too hastily um when you cut rates it can
20:12
lead to a recession so they have to be
20:15
very very careful and I think that's why
20:17
the the US is putting the brakes on rate
20:19
C it doesn't want a recession it's so
20:21
near recession and you know the UK is
20:24
the EU is and and I would you know
20:27
caution Russian in and cussing rates too
20:29
soon or too aggressively and that
20:31
situation in the Middle East not just
20:33
the price of oil but also getting things
20:35
through the Panama Canal if you think
20:37
just back to the pandemic or when the
20:39
canal was blocked for a little while the
20:40
issues that we get under those sort of
20:42
circumstances can be major have a major
20:45
influence on how companies can manage
20:48
their situations it does yeah you know
20:51
once it takes an extra 10 days at least
20:54
um to get Goods through if there's
20:55
problems and you can't use the canal I
20:57
don't think the US government at the
20:59
moment is strong enough to do anything
21:00
to force Iran to stop and I know people
21:03
are going to some people are going to
21:04
hate me for say this but I think if
21:06
Trump was in power he knew how to
21:08
control Iran um and I don't think it
21:11
would have escalated to such a degree
21:14
but now it has we just need to hope that
21:17
it doesn't spread even further um
21:20
certainly the idea seems to that one
21:22
it's just it's just horrible for
21:23
everyone indeed the idea seems to be
21:26
that um what's happening now is
21:28
happening now because of course the
21:30
American elections are due next month
21:31
and Mr Trump could well be back in power
21:34
it's still pretty much neck and neck
21:35
exactly and they want to get it over the
21:37
all done before he gets into Power
21:38
because they know they can't do it when
21:39
he's there and at the moment Biden is
21:42
spending most of his time on the beach
21:44
and he's a enjoying his old age as he
21:46
should um meanwhile he should he should
21:49
have done that ages ago you know we had
21:50
elder abuse in the U in the US and I
21:53
think everyone recognizes that now if
21:55
you'd like to get in touch with
21:56
Christine you can do it via the usual
21:57
Bay number number 6844 584 for the
22:01
WhatsApp or email Studio Bay radio.fm or
22:04
you can go direct to the Black Tower FM
22:07
website of the contact details okay
22:09
could you please if you do just put
22:11
Christina Brady if you uh go into our
22:14
website for in a contact sheet or
22:15
anything because then it comes straight
22:16
through to me I've had quite a few
22:18
inquiries in the last week and all of
22:20
them have put attention to Christina
22:22
Brady so it means it comes to me
22:23
instantaneously and I can get back to
22:25
you if not it goes to a central desk
22:28
where they will call you and find out
22:29
what you need and who you need to talk
22:31
about talk to so if you want it to be
22:34
answered put for Christina Brady and
22:36
then when I talk to you you can say you
22:38
heard me on Bay radio or whatever so
22:40
yeah info@ blackt fm.com or you can
22:43
always look us up on the website you can
22:45
call the office which is 9655 a212 if
22:48
we're not there please leave a message
22:50
we do get back to everyone we've got an
22:52
answer machine which may have my creepy
22:54
voice on there telling you to leave a
22:56
message I'm not sure but we will get
22:58
back you remember when we cover the
22:59
whole of Spain we and most countries in
23:02
Europe us UK so if you've got anything
23:04
at all uh you can always come to me and
23:07
I'll pass it on to the appropriate
23:08
person in the country that you're live
23:10
in um and that's all I've got to say for
23:12
this week I think excellent okay black
23:15
toow fm.com you'll see the contact us
23:18
box at the top of the website there and
23:19
plenty of information about what we've
23:21
been talking about today and of course
23:23
all the things that Black Tower offer as
23:25
well and we'll be back with Christina in
23:27
a couple of weeks thank you very much