0:01
In the previous video, we talked quite
0:02
a bit about why Steam is becoming
0:04
increasingly difficult to access in
0:06
Vietnam, as well as the legal issues
0:08
that may be preventing Valve and
0:09
Vietnamese regulators from reaching a
0:11
common ground. But there is a question
0:13
I think is even more important. Just
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how important is Vietnam to Steam,
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really? Because at the end of the day,
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Valve is a business too. If Vietnam
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were an extremely large market with
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tens of millions of Steam users
0:25
bringing in huge annual revenue, Valve
0:27
would certainly have a great incentive
0:29
to find a solution. But if Vietnam only
0:32
accounts for a very small part of the
0:34
global Steam ecosystem, the story is
0:36
completely different. So today, let's
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join the Vietnamese gaming world in
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breaking down the numbers to see
0:42
roughly how many Steam users Vietnam
0:44
has, and where we stand when compared
0:46
to the largest markets in the world.
0:55
First, we must be clear that Valve does
0:57
not publish the number of users per
0:59
country. This is something you need to
1:01
keep in mind before looking at the
1:02
following figures. Valve has the Steam
1:04
Hardware and Software Survey, which
1:06
publishes the ratio of languages used
1:09
by Steam users. But Steam does not
1:11
provide an official table saying
1:13
Vietnam has 1.6 million people,
1:15
Thailand 2 million, Indonesia 3 million
1:18
, so we can only estimate rather than
1:20
consider these as absolute data. Steam
1:23
currently has a scale of over 100
1:25
million monthly active users globally,
1:27
and some estimates often place this
1:29
number at around 140 to 150 million MAU
1:32
. In the Steam Hardware Survey, the
1:35
percentage of users employing the
1:37
Vietnamese interface usually accounts
1:38
for only a very small portion of total
1:40
Steam users. If we take the ratio of
1:42
about 0.25 to 0.29%as a reference and
1:45
multiply it by the global Steam scale,
1:48
we have about 350,000 to over 400,000
1:50
accounts using Steam in Vietnamese. But
1:55
wait, that does not at all mean Vietnam
1:58
only has 400,000 Steam users. Many
2:00
Vietnamese gamers use Steam in English.
2:03
I am an example of that. Many long-time
2:06
PC gamers have the habit of keeping
2:09
Steam in English. The reason is easy to
2:11
understand. Item names are in English,
2:13
online guides are in English, mods are
2:15
in English, and the Steam Community is
2:17
in English. The Community Market also
2:19
frequently uses English terminology.
2:21
There are even games where switching to
2:23
Vietnamese makes reading the skills
2:25
harder to understand than in English.
2:27
Therefore, if we only use the
2:29
Vietnamese language ratio from the
2:31
Steam Hardware Survey to count
2:33
Vietnamese gamers, we will definitely
2:35
miss a huge number of users. If we
2:37
include the group of Vietnamese who use
2:39
Steam in English or other languages,
2:41
some estimate models place the scale of
2:43
active Steam users in Vietnam at about
2:46
1.5 to 1.8 million accounts per month.
2:48
Once again, I emphasize that this is an
2:50
estimate, not official data from Valve.
2:55
But even if we accept the 1.5 to 1.8
2:57
million figure, Vietnam is still a
2:59
relatively small market when placed
3:02
next to the global Steam ecosystem. 1
3:05
million sounds like a lot, but the
3:07
world is even more staggering. Looking
3:10
at Vietnam alone, 1 million Steam users
3:12
is a lot, but when compared to the US,
3:15
China, or Russia, we immediately shrink
3:17
to just a small neighborhood. The US
3:21
likely possesses around 25 to 30
3:23
million monthly active Steam users.
3:26
China could be in the range of over 20
3:29
million users, and Russia could also
3:31
reach over 10 million. These three
3:33
markets alone account for an extremely
3:35
large portion of the global Steam
3:36
community. Then we also have Brazil
3:39
with about 6 million users, Germany
3:41
with about 4 to 5 million, the UK with
3:43
about 4 million, Japan with over 3
3:45
million, plus Turkey, France, and
3:47
Indonesia, all of which possess very
3:49
significant Steam communities. So, if
3:53
Vietnam truly has about 1.5 to 1.8
3:55
million active users, we are not a
3:57
meaningless market, but we are also not
3:59
yet in the group of markets that Valve
4:02
cannot afford to lose. This is a very
4:04
important distinction. Even within
4:07
Southeast Asia, Vietnam is not
4:09
necessarily leading. If using the same
4:11
estimation method, Indonesia might have
4:13
about 2.6 to over 3 million active
4:16
Steam users. The Philippines could
4:18
reach about 2 to 2.4 million users.
4:20
Thailand has about 1.8 to over 2
4:22
million users, and Vietnam has about
4:25
1.5 to 1.8 million. Thus, Vietnam may
4:27
be among the significant Steam markets
4:29
in Southeast Asia, but it still lags
4:31
behind several other countries in terms
4:33
of scale. And Indonesia is a case that
4:35
is very worth our comparison. In 2022,
4:38
Indonesia blocked Steam because Valve
4:40
had not completed the electronic system
4:42
registration requirements in that
4:44
country. After Steam was blocked, Valve
4:47
responded and worked with Indonesian
4:49
authorities to resolve the issue. This
4:51
shows that when the benefits of a
4:53
market are large enough compared to
4:55
compliance costs, Valve will certainly
4:57
take action. And the question for
5:01
Vietnam is, are we big enough yet? But
5:03
the number of users is not the most
5:05
important thing. This is the issue I
5:07
want you guys to pay attention to.
5:09
Suppose Vietnam truly has 1.8 million
5:11
Steam users. Indonesia has 3 million.
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Japan has about 3 to 4 million, and the
5:16
UK has about 4 million users. It
5:18
doesn't mean the value of these four
5:20
markets is proportional to the number
5:22
of players. What Valve ultimately cares
5:24
about is how much revenue users
5:25
generate, and this could be a
5:27
disadvantage for the Vietnamese market.
5:30
Vietnamese gamers play a lot of free
5:32
games. If you look at popular games,
5:35
you will see many titles that are
5:37
free-to-play, such as Counter-Strike 2,
5:40
Dota 2, PUBG, Naraka: Bladepoint, or
5:42
new games like Wuthering Waves and
5:44
Anime. A person who logs into Steam
5:48
every day but plays a free game for 3
5:50
years without buying anything is still
5:52
counted as one user in the MAU
5:54
statistics. But for Valve's revenue,
5:56
it's a completely different story.
6:00
Meanwhile, markets like the US, UK,
6:02
Germany, or Japan have higher spending
6:05
power. A $ 60-$ 70 AAA game? Buy it.
6:09
DLC? Buy it. Indie game on sale? Might
6:12
as well buy it. Even if they have 200
6:14
unplayed games in their library, that
6:16
is exactly the type of customer Steam
6:18
absolutely loves. Therefore, don't just
6:20
look at account numbers; Russia, Brazil
6:22
, Turkey, and Indonesia all have very
6:24
large Steam communities. But scale does
6:27
not equate to revenue scale. Conversely
6:31
, some Western European countries or
6:33
Japan have fewer users, but the
6:35
purchasing power per account can be
6:37
much higher, and Vietnam might face
6:39
this exact problem. We have a fairly
6:41
large and fast-growing PC gaming
6:43
community, but Steam still has to
6:45
compete in a game market where mobile
6:47
is extremely dominant. Vietnam has tens
6:50
of millions of gamers, but the majority
6:52
of users are not on Steam. Arena of
6:54
Valor, Free Fire, and numerous other
6:56
mobile games still command a massive
6:58
player base. On PC, there are also
7:02
ecosystems that do not rely entirely on
7:04
Steam. Therefore, if we estimate Steam
7:06
Vietnam at around 1.5 to 1.8 million
7:08
MAU, that is just a relatively small
7:11
part of the entire Vietnamese gaming
7:13
community. And now, let us return to
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the original question. Is Valve
7:19
interested in Vietnam? I think the most
7:21
reasonable answer is yes. But it is not
7:23
necessarily important enough for Valve
7:25
to accept all costs to keep this market
7:27
. These are two completely different
7:29
things. A market with over 1 million
7:31
users is certainly not something Valve
7:33
wants to throw away for fun. But if
7:35
they were to operate completely
7:36
officially in Vietnam, Valve would have
7:38
to address a series of requirements
7:40
regarding legal issues, allowed game
7:42
content, and the responsibilities of
7:44
the service provider, which would
7:45
change the economic equation. And they
7:47
will have to weigh it. How much money
7:49
does Vietnam bring in each year
7:50
compared to how much they have to spend
7:52
and how much they have to change their
7:54
system to comply. If the former is much
7:56
larger than the latter, Valve has a
7:58
reason to sit at the table. If it is
8:00
the opposite, Valve may continue to
8:02
remain silent. This is also why I do
8:04
not yet believe in a Steam Vietnam. A
8:06
scenario often mentioned is Valve
8:08
partnering with VNG, VTC, or a
8:10
Vietnamese enterprise to operate Steam
8:12
in the domestic market. In theory, this
8:15
is entirely possible. Valve once
8:17
partnered with Perfect World to launch
8:19
Steam China. But China is a completely
8:21
different market from Vietnam in terms
8:23
of scale. If they have to build a
8:25
separate system, change the way games
8:27
are distributed, handle licensing
8:29
issues, and share revenue with partners
8:31
just to serve a market of a few million
8:33
users, Valve will certainly have to
8:35
consider it extremely carefully. This
8:37
is why I believe that in the short term
8:38
, the more likely scenario is Valve
8:40
staying the course. They will see how
8:44
far the access restrictions in Vietnam
8:46
go, see how user numbers and revenue
8:48
are affected, and most importantly, see
8:50
if there is a compliance plan easy
8:52
enough for both sides to find common
8:54
ground. But Vietnam has one advantage:
8:59
the market is still growing. Don't look
9:01
at current figures and conclude that
9:03
Vietnam will never be important. PC
9:04
gaming in Vietnam still has room for
9:06
growth, user income is rising, and PC
9:08
games are becoming increasingly popular
9:11
. More Asian blockbusters are being
9:13
released on Steam, and the gap between
9:15
console, PC, and mobile is gradually
9:17
shifting. The 1.5 million users today
9:20
could easily become a much larger
9:22
number in the future. When that time
9:24
comes, Valve's calculation will change
9:26
as well. If current estimates are
9:29
relatively close to reality, Vietnam
9:31
likely has about 1.5 to 1.8 million
9:33
monthly active Steam accounts, only a
9:35
portion of which use the Vietnamese
9:37
interface. That is not a small
9:39
community, but compared to over 100
9:41
million Steam users globally and
9:43
markets with tens of millions of
9:45
accounts, Vietnam still represents a
9:47
quite modest share. More importantly,
9:49
the number of players does not equal
9:51
revenue. If a large portion of
9:52
Vietnamese users focuses on
9:54
free-to-play games, the economic value
9:56
of the market for Valve might be even
9:58
lower than the user share. And this
10:00
helps us understand why Valve may not
10:02
have reacted decisively to the
10:04
restricted access to Steam in Vietnam.
10:06
It's not that Valve doesn't care about
10:08
Vietnamese gamers at all, but simply
10:10
that Vietnam might not be big enough to
10:13
force Valve to act immediately; if the
10:15
blocking of Steam intensifies, this
10:17
will be an extremely interesting test.
10:19
Will Valve accept the cost to find
10:21
common ground with Vietnam, partner
10:23
with a local entity, or continue to
10:25
keep Steam Global as is and accept the
10:27
gradual loss of a market with over 1
10:29
million users? Only then will we truly
10:31
know how much Vietnamese gamers are
10:33
worth in Valve's eyes.
