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What is the actual value of a second round pick?
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Apr 14, 2025
What's up youtube, this is my first ever nba video on this channel! Today, I will be discussing the logistics of the massive second round pick swaps during the trade deadline to determine how well seconds are being valued and if they can be used in the future in more of these massive 4-5 pick swaps for guys like saddiq bey, james wiseman, etc. Pardon the lackluster edit, I really wasn't sure how to make this video tbh, but with more mainstream content on the horizon, I imagine the videos will be better conceptually going forward. Hope y'all enjoy and if you did, maybe a like? a subscription?
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0:00
Big news involves Kyrie Irving, who according to Woj is expected to take his physical today in Dallas
0:05
One day after the Nets traded him to the Mavericks. The deal that ends four tumultuous seasons in Brooklyn for the 30-year-old Irving
0:13
Breaking news. Late night on the West Coast, early morning on the East Coast
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The Nets are not, they're no more, at least as they started this season
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Kyrie got a win in his Dallas debut, and Kevin Durant is headed to Phoenix
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Okay, so before this one begins, um, like, can we just acknowledge how just absolutely insane this season has been
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Um, like, this is kind of a weird time for me to be starting a channel, because this season has just been so unequivocally crazy
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and I might make a video about like a whole season retrospective later on but I just want to get that
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out of the way before this one starts. That's not what this video is about. This video is about the
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draft, not this year's draft but the draft in general and not about the first round. This video
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is going to be about second round picks. Following the trade deadline a lot of the tectonic plates of
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the league shifted and many big moves were made. Rightfully these trades have been the talking
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point in most basketball discourse since. One part of the deadline that I think has been hardly
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discussed though is this. The second round pick trades. On not one, not two, I believe three
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separate occasions, one player was routed to another team, just one player, in either a two
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or three team deal for a package of four to five second round picks. I think the reason this hasn't
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really been mentioned though is that second round picks don't really have a known value in the NBA
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day. When considering the value of a first round pick for comparison, it's easy to assign
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the value based on protections, the team's record, and the year which the pick will convey
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With most second round picks though, we don't even know what year those picks will convey
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It is because a lot of the time, these second round picks amount to literally nothing. Like
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it's very very uncommon the first doesn't play in the league. That's commonplace in
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the second round. So today, let's determine the actual market value of a second round
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pick, and based on the qualities of players which these picks produce, figure out whether
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or not trading 5 of them to get a guy like Sadiq Bey is a fair trade
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Okay, so to begin, let's set some parameters for the rest of the video
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I'm only going to be collecting data beginning in the 2010 season. Why
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Because we can't go back too much further than that before most of the second round picks
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that I'm going to be looking at become completely unfamiliar to me, and I'd like to keep this
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video within the modern context. Okay, so to begin this video, let's set some parameters for the rest of it
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I will only be collecting data from beginning in the 2010 season Why Because I can go back too much further before most of these second rounders become completely unfamiliar and I like to keep this video within the modern context
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Secondly, I won't be using data from the most recent drafts, as a lot of second rounders haven't had the opportunity to display themselves
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and the fact that none of them have finished a full season will probably skew the data. I'm also not including 2021
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Finally, we're just going to ignore this guy. Uh, yeah, he's arguably the biggest outlier in NBA history, argue a wall
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Okay, so let's first determine what data we're going to collect. First, we're going to determine the percentage of players picked in the second round who actually played in the league
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From here, we will divide these players based on their career length and actual ability to figure out how often a quality player is produced by a second rounder
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Using this information, we can then determine how likely a second rounder is to amount to a player of quality, and then determine what the equivalent trade value of the average second round pick is and should be
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Okay, let's start with the easiest part. Determining how often the second round produces NBA talent
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Since 2010, average second round pick has played roughly two seasons in the NBA
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This is including guys who don't play at all. If you ex-nay those guys, if you only include players who have played at least one game, the average second-round pick plays about three seasons in the NBA
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Within each draft, by my own estimate, there are an average of about six decent NBA players in the second round
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How did I determine this? Well, I sifted through all the second-round picks between 2010 and 2020, and then just sort of arbitrarily decided which guys made the cut
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Guys who played spot starter minutes or played more than 5 years in the league, such as Kylo Quinn and Mike Scott, usually made the cut
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Or guys who have played for a shorter amount of time like Landry Fields, started a large percentage of games
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Among the 70 total decent seconds I found, about 49 of those guys got second contracts and did well, are still playing, or will likely get second contracts soon
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In this group, there are even 4 all-stars, and even 5 if you want to count Jalen Brunson, who will probably get there sooner or later
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So essentially, you get about a 1 in 6 chance to select a productive NBA player in the second round
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and about a 1 in 60 chance to get an all-star caliber talent in the second round by my somewhat rough estimation
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So, how much should we really value a second round pick then? Well, considering most first round picks are significantly more successful than seconds
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and it's not super common for a first round talent to slide far into the second round on draft night aside from like, bowl bowl
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I don't think we should value second round picks very highly individually
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They're kind of like a first round lottery in the sense that when you trade for one
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you're only ever hoping to get a steal or a diamond in the rough, rather than tertiary guys or surefire future stars
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It very rare to draft a second rounder and then start him from day one or expect them to be a valuable part of your team unless you rebuilding With that being said though I do think competent drafting front offices like the Lakers or Raptors
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can make good use out of late draft picks and stocking up on them can be a good idea to
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potentially fill out depth and later needs for a developing team. The 2018 draft is not only
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evidence that this can be achieved, but that teams with a good reputation for development and smart
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draft choices and find productive players in the second round, as 13 of the 30 second round selections
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are still in the NBA today, with at least semi-productive roles. This is including Jalen
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Brunson, who we mentioned earlier. Now, that's not even half the group, but when you consider that
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some seconds get traded for cash considerations to offload bad contracts, it does seem like their
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value should be more critically assessed. In many cases, high second round picks between 31 and 40
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aren't really even that far off from late firsts, which are routinely valued much higher
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Now, I'm not a GM, and there are plenty of people who are paid to draft and make trades
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who surely have a much better understanding of this than I do. However, I think this trade deadline had some particularly important moves involving second round picks
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and I think we can yze those to determine whether or not they're balanced trades with this newfound information
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Okay, let's begin with the messy Gary Payton 4-team trade, which sent Sadiq Bey to Atlanta
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James Wiseman to Detroit 5 seconds, and Kevin Knox to Portland, and GP2 plus 3 seconds to GSW
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For Portland, this deal, from their delusional contenders perspective, doesn't really make sense to me at all
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The amount of seconds for GP2 seems to be fair, and the protections aren't too severe to really hinder this deal
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However, for a team that's still trying to win with Damian Lourdes right now, acquiring these picks, some of them which won't pay until Dame is 35, seems fairly silly
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and although Portland isn't actually too bad at drafting in the second round
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I'd still rather have the cheap win now guy who they signed this offseason
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rather than a bunch of stuff that doesn't help you now, even if GP2 is injured
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For the Hawks and Warriors, offloading these picks, to me, makes tons of sense
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even if it is a bit risky for both sides. Portland State is really only going to miss their unprotected 20-28 seconds
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though assuming Steph and this core doesn't seem to nosedive soon and they maintain some of their young guys
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I imagine it'll hardly matter. For Atlanta, acquiring a high upside swing, who has shown genuine promise for a team that's struggling, is huge
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They've already mortgaged a ton of their future anyway, so why not bolster their team now rather than flip-flopping
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To me, Portland definitely got the short end of the stick in this deal, unless they intend on rerouting these picks or choosing to go in a more youth-oriented direction
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This deal is interesting because it demonstrates that teams with limited flexibility in terms
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of draft capital can still make moves considering that 4 or 5 seconds is essentially equal value to a mid to late first round Another deal that encapsulates that idea well is the Lakers Hachimura trade For the Lakers acquiring a low
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risk, high reward young guy, picks not conveying until LeBron is almost certainly retired
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as well as Kendrick Nunn, who wasn't playing, is a total steal. Even though those picks might be
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more desirable in 7 years, it's unlikely either of them will amount to more than a Rui Hachimura
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caliber player anyway, so why not upgrade the roster now? For Washington, this deal isn't as
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bad as it looks, considering there's a high likelihood these become quality second rounders
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when the Lakers potentially suck in five years. The landing two seconds for a guy they hardly
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developed and may have squandered the potential of just four years after drafting demonstrates
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Washington's continued incompetence. There were several other moves at the most recent deadline
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involving lots of seconds which are also worthy of note. The Pelicans traded four of them as well
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as Devontae Graham to acquire Josh Richardson, who was probably worth one late first rounder
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The Celtics landed Mike Muscala for two seconds, adding to Sam Presti's massive draft haul
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and the Clippers landed three and Eric Gordon, only dealing Luke Kennard and John Wall in the
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process. So what are these trades telling us? What can we conclude from the movement of second
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round picks at this most recent trade deadline. Well, going into this video, I anticipated to find
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that seconds were either being valued too highly or too low in many of these trades. To me though
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the 2023 trade deadline is proof that GMs have a pretty good understanding of the value of a second
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I think that Mike Muscal is probably worth exactly two seconds. Sadiq Bey is probably worth no less
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than five, but no more than that considering his play this year. So what is the value of a second
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Second rounder? Well, there are plenty of factors to determine that. A successful team like Boston looking to make moves around the edges could be satisfied with trading one or two of them to get an Aetherman Ironman. Rebuilding teams can use second rounders if they don't usually do well in the draft instead to acquire low risk, high reward young talent. Essentially fostering young guys who will play and have potential rather than gambling on future picks who might never even touch the hardwood. This is a strategy that Detroit has been implying recently
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So to summarize, NBA teams do a good job using second round picks in trades
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We shouldn't get too hung up on the logistics of a Ciddiq Bay 5 second swap because at the
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end of the day, it's just a gamble and a bunch of chances to get one or two good players
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in exchange for one good player. If you enjoyed this video, be sure to like and subscribe
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This is the first of hopefully many videos in this style to come out on my channel, so
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if you'd like to see more, liking and subscribing and leaving comments about what you did or
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didn't like is the best way to help. Thanks for watching everybody, peace
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