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The 2024 Final Four is here, well, almost
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Hopefully when you're watching this, it has not occurred yet. This has honestly been such a fun NCAA tournament for me
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Thank you guys so much for the support throughout these videos. Let's get right into it
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This is everything you need to know about the Final Four. We have four teams, obviously
0:19
with three of them being the top three offenses in the country in Connecticut, the number one overall seed
0:26
one seed Purdue at two, and four seed Alabama at three. With the NC State Wolfpack and 11 seed all the way down at 40, we're going to start with
0:34
the most dominant team in this field and one of the most dominant teams in the last 25
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years according to Ken Palm. The University of Connecticut, they went 35-3 on this season
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They have the number one adjusted offense via Ken Palm and the fourth adjusted defense
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I said this in my Elite 8 video, but that 35.11 adjusted efficiency margin that Ken Palm
0:58
ranks them as it is so elite that it is the sixth best margin in the last 25 years going all the way
1:05
back to 1999 duke which was an absurd 43.01 this video is brought to you by underdog fantasy if you
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and as long as you place a pick them entry or you have in the past you're good you're eligible and
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you'll also be able to use the nikola yokich half point special which ends on saturday shout out
1:43
the underdog let's get back to the video and what makes this yukon team so elite is that they are
1:48
incredible from inside the arc their two-point field goal percentage is 59.1 which is good for
1:54
fourth in the nation and they also defend the two incredibly well as well their second in the nation
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at 43 their first two losses on the season came in the month of december versus kansas a 69 to 65
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loss and then on december 20th versus seton hall losing by 15 but they would then win their next 25
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of 26 including their blowout win over illinois last week in the elite eight with that one loss
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coming at Creighton on February 20th, losing 85-266. Keep that game in mind because we're
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going to bring it up when we talk about their opponent, Alabama. We've said this before
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but UConn is having an elite tournament. Their average margin of victory is 27.75
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and they have led for almost every second of this tournament, with only San Diego State holding a
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lead in the first moments of the game for 28 seconds in the Sweet 16. What's even crazier
2:50
about this dominant run is that they are shooting awful from three a tournament total of 28 percent
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from beyond the arc which if we were to extrapolate that over a whole season would be good for third to
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last in all of division one basketball so how is this team winning but not only just winning
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dominating in every single game well for one they're shooting 63.75 percent from inside the
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arc which if we extrapolate that over the course of the whole season would lead the nation as well
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in two-point percentage i gotta point this out quick i did not realize they shot 26 for 32 from
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two-point range against northwestern that is absolutely insane i'm gonna check to see if
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that's some type of record all right so i put this into stat head which i love using by the way i
3:36
recommend you guys getting a subscription they've been kind enough to sponsor the channel early on
3:40
in march madness so it really helped me out this isn't an official plug but there is a link in the
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description if you want to sign up using code hardwood or that link would get you 20 off an
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annual or your first month free but anyways it has happened just four times in the ncaa tournament
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that a team has shot over 80 from two the other three were 2017 11 seed Kansas State over Wake Forest in the first four 2012 Florida in the first round versus Virginia
4:05
and 1988 Carolina versus Loyola Marymount. But UConn has the best percentage here
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so it is a record. However, it isn't just the offense for UConn, it's the fact they have not allowed a team
4:17
to score over 60 points in this tournament. They held 16 seed Stetson to 52
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They held Northwestern to 58, including 18 points in the first half
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They held San Diego State to 52, and they held Illinois to 52 as well
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You are allowed the luxury of shooting not very well from three-point range
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when you're shooting the best in the country from two, and you're holding teams to under 60
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I think we've demonstrated how dominant UConn has been. They have two top 10 draft picks in Stephon Castle
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and Donovan Klingin, who through this tournament, has been rising the NBA draft boards
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So let's talk about their opponent, number four seed Alabama. If you've watched these videos, you know I've been critical of Alabama
4:58
I have not believed in Alabama, and I was wrong. I said this in the Elite Eight video, but only a handful of times, twice in the past
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25 years, has a team with a defense outside the top 100 made the Final Four
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So I just give major props to Nate Oates and this Alabama team. They are 100% committed to threes and layups, playing at a high pace, playing it their way
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And to be honest, the fact that they replenished so much they lost last year, they had to replace
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seven of their top nine scorers from that one seed 2023 Alabama team, including number
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three overall pick in the 2023 NBA draft, Brandon Miller. The key for Alabama to pull off this massive upset is probably the most obvious thing I've
5:41
ever stated on this channel. It's hitting threes. Alabama is 7-1 this year when hitting 15 threes or more with that one loss coming to Purdue
5:50
92 to 86 in their 10 losses this season they have failed to hit 10 or more threes in all but one
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game a loss to clemson where they went 11 for 35 but remember how i said we're going to talk about
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creighton's 15 point win over connecticut on february 20th that game is key for bama to win
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this game understanding it creighton went 14 for 28 from 3 and 15 for 25 from 2 barely turning it
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over just seven times and they made their free throws meanwhile in that game UConn shot very
6:24
well from two but struggled from three going three for 16 this is the blueprint for Bama blow the
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doors off them offensively do not try to challenge cling in at the rim like Illinois did a lot of
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people will say UConn already destroyed the best offense in the nation in Illinois by 25 they held
6:42
them to 23 at half and even deep into the second half but here's the difference between Bama and
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Illinois. Bama is heavily dependent on three-pointers. They take almost half of their field
6:52
goals from there. Meanwhile, Illinois is much more dependent on twos. They only take 38.5% of their
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field goals from three. Also, Illinois is not an up-tempo team at all. Meanwhile, Bama is one of
7:04
the fastest teams in the nation. Both Creighton and Bama take a similar number of three attempts
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per game, but Creighton does not run and Bama does. Looking at the numbers on Ken Palm, UConn
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has not played a team like Bama this year. Plus, Bama has really good news
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Latrell Wrightsell, Bama's fifth leading scorer and their best three-point shooter at 44.3
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has been out since the round of 32 when he injured his head versus Grand Canyon
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He was seen back practicing yesterday, which could be absolutely massive for the Crimson Tide
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I do not know how Grant Nelson and Nick Pringle can hold up inside on defense
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but Bama just needs to focus on staying in front not fouling and living with the fact that UConn is going to have to score in the high 90s to beat you
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Like I said earlier no team has cleared 60 versus UConn this tournament Bama is 100 clearing 60 They have done it every single game this year with their lowest number being 71 in a blowout loss at Tennessee
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I also have been obsessed with Mark Sears in this tournament. I know a lot of people like to say this
8:08
but he really does play like a Jalen Brunson, similar size, even looks like him being a lefty
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Here's my prediction for this game. You know we don't do chalky, safe, basic predictions here
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but also we don't just make outlandish ones that we don't actually think
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This is genuinely what I believe. I think Alabama gives UConn a run
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Ultimately, they lose something like 98 to 94, but I'm gonna say they have the ball
8:32
and a chance to tie in the last minute. UConn will get to the line a ton
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and probably just barely pull this one out. No matter what happens, if you're an Alabama fan
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you have to be ecstatic about this Final Four run. It's your first in NCAA history
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and you're going up against Goliath. We shall see on Saturday who will prevail
8:50
Game number two of the evening and ironically it's actually the first game on the final four slate number one seed purdue versus
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cinderella 11 seed nc state let's start with the boilermakers this is their first final four
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since 1980 when joe barry carroll a seven foot scoring big man led his boilermakers to the final
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four as well they would fail to make the title game so purdue is going to try to make their first
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national final since 1969 when Rick Mount led his team there but they've also never won a national
9:23
championship so they'll be going for a first in that regard as well the biggest storyline here
9:28
number one is Purdue's ultimate redemption similarly to in 2018 when Virginia became the
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first one seed to lose to a 16 in the University of Maryland Baltimore County Virginia would follow
9:41
it up in 2019 winning the national title it was the ultimate redemption last season 2023 purdue
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would become the second one seed to lose to a 16 in fairly dickinson they have an opportunity here
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to do something similar which would be insane if you think about it what are the chances the two
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one seeds that lose to 16s win national titles with very similar players the next season but the
10:04
other biggest storyline for purdue is zach ed jared beerson on twitter has a thread of pretty
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cool Zach Eadie stats I'll link in the description. I would totally just search this on StatHead but
10:14
they haven't launched their player college tool yet, just their team. But according to Jared's
10:19
thread, Zach Eadie has the chance to be the first player since blocks became official in 1985
10:24
to average 24, 12 boards, 2 blocks, and 2 assists a game. Right now Eadie sits at 424 free throw
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attempts on the season. The leader all-time in single season free throw attempts is Frank Selvey
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at 444 from 1954. Edie is currently averaging 11 attempts per game
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So if he makes the national final, he's probably breaking that record
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Like I said before, I don't want to go into the whole fouling thing. I just haven't done that much of a deep dive into it
10:53
to have an opinion on such a polarizing topic. And honestly, I don't know if I care enough
10:58
or have enough time for that. Either way, best believe if he breaks that record
11:02
it will be what everybody is talking about. Purdue has the second best three-point percentage in the entire nation, but they don't take that
11:09
many threes. They're a little below average. Neither of these teams play fast, so there isn't really a style contrast here either
11:16
I didn't find nearly as many interesting numbers for this game, but bottom line, it's really
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going to come down to this. Will Zach Eadie get to the free throw line a ton and get NC State's three big men, Diara
11:28
Middlebrooks, and Burns in foul trouble? On the NC State side, like I stated in the Elite Eight video, they are the fifth 11 seed to ever make a Final Four, with 2021 UCLA being the last to do it
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However, we have never had an 11 seed get to a national championship, much less win it
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And so you better believe this is the team I'm voting for, or I should say cheering on
11:51
Do I think it plausible No not really Do I want it to happen Do I think it possible Absolutely This is March Madness there a first time for everything why not nc state they have the second longest win streak in the nation
12:04
at nine games right behind yukon if you look at their kenpom metrics they're basically just an
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average team and almost everything besides turnover percentage they're really good at not
12:13
turning the ball over before i get to the rest of this game evaluation i cannot get over the fact
12:19
that we almost didn't see this NC State team in the tournament
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They were down six to Virginia in the ACC semis, 58 to 52 with 52 seconds to go
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ESPN gave Virginia a 95% win probability at that point. Virginia then fouls Casey Marcel on a three
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He makes all three free throws. Isaac McNeely, an 84.7% free throw shooter
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misses this front end of a one-on-one and Michael O'Connell makes this three
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you've seen a million times, you've heard me talk about. Staying the game to overtime, saving NC State's season
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I know I've mentioned it, but I can't not continue to because this is the beauty of March
13:00
A team looks dead in the water. They make a comeback, whether the other team makes mistakes
13:05
or they make incredible plays or a mixture of both. And that one comeback win has a ripple effect
13:11
and sends them on this long run that they never would have had
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if those moments didn't happen. Getting back to the NC State Purdue game, I think this game on the NC State side comes down to two things
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Like I said, do not let DJ Burns get in foul trouble versus Zach Eadie
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I don't think they'll have him guard him. On the plus side, if they do have him guard him, Eadie's not going to be able to move Burns
13:34
He'll give up a ton of size and height. But Eadie won't be able to bury him under the rim like he does with a lot of opponents
13:40
But on the offensive end, DJ Burns is going to have to facilitate. I don't think he's going to score in the post over Eadie
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which means NC State needs a big game from DJ Horn. I don't know if there's a player on Purdue that can guard him
13:54
I think Lance Jones would get the assignment, but DJ Horn is too shifty
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and I think he needs about 24 to 25 points for NC State to win this game
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But it's not just that. Let DJ Burns facilitate and Morsell, Taylor, and even O'Connell need to come up big
14:12
They need to have a couple more points than their average. They need to be hitting their open threes to create that space for DJ Burns to facilitate
14:20
I really tried to look on Ken Palm for NC State's efficiency since entering the ACC tournament
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but I couldn't find it. But my best guess is they'd be charting pretty high over this nine-game win streak
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Overall, my prediction for this game, I'm going to go out on a limb, guys
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My prediction is the officials swallow the whistle versus Edie for the first time all
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year he gets roughed up and nc state beats purdue in a nail biter 70 to 68 i'm probably an idiot for
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doing this but i can't help it i'm going with my heart not my head there's a first time for
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everything in the ncaa tournament and this is the year this is a team of destiny they defeat the
15:00
purdue boilermakers they make the first national title game since the 83 jimmy v wolfpack and to
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become the first 11 seed to do so. I'm probably an idiot. I'll probably laugh about this for my
15:13
final four explained video, but it's how I feel, I guess. So we're going to go with it. Thank you
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guys for watching this video. If you enjoyed it, check out my video I made before the tournament
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on how far each seed has advanced and see if you can spot the changes that'll be made to next year's
15:27
video based off this year's tournament. Also, I put my underdog link and my code in the description
15:32
along with my stat head link and code. These sponsorships and brand deals that I'm starting
15:36
to get for the channel they really mean a lot to me and they mean a lot to the channel for me to be
15:40
able to do this full time so if you consider supporting me that'd be awesome as always if
15:44
you have any ideas for future videos leave them in the comments i'm thinking about starting a
15:50
discord as well just so we can continue to develop community thank you so much for watching you guys
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mean the world to me and as always we'll see you on the hardwood
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