Up next in 10
I kid you not when I say that I started this video at midnight and just finished LMFAO. I took a 90 minute nap around 8 this morning but that's it.
Hope you enjoy :)
0:00 - 0:36 Intro
0:36 - 4:19 2 Arizona vs 6 Clemson
4:19 - 6:20 1 UConn vs 5 San Diego State
6:20 - 8:13 1 North Carolina vs 4 Alabama
8:13 - 10:57 2 Iowa State vs 3 Illinois
10:57 - 12:52 2 Marquette vs 11 NC State
12:52 - 16:20 1 Purdue vs 5 Gonzaga
16:20 - 17:57 1 Houston vs 4 Duke
17:57 - 20:07 2 Tennessee vs 3 Creighton
20:07 - 22:56 My Predictions
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0:00
In a little over 24 hours, the 2024 Sweet 16 will officially kick off
0:05
And even though I personally love the first weekend and the first two rounds of March Madness the most
0:10
there's something super special about the Sweet 16, especially this year. In the round of 32, favorites went 15-1, making for a super chalky Sweet 16
0:21
And although that is a bummer for us that love chaos and upsets and Cinderella stories
0:25
It has created absolutely incredible matchups of high-level basketball in these next eight games
0:31
So let's get right into it. This is everything you need to know going into the Sweet 16
0:36
Game 1, 2-seed Arizona versus 6-seed Clemson. Let's start with the Clemson Tigers
0:41
They are a team that I've said before I'm shocked to see in the Sweet 16. However, after watching their tape in their Baylor and New Mexico wins
0:48
it's not hard at all to see why they are in this position. They have actually led in every minute of play besides the first 40 seconds of round
0:57
one versus New Mexico in this tournament. I think the most likely reason why people didn't really like Clemson is they don't play
1:03
the flashiest style of basketball. It also doesn't help they lost to Boston College, a 20 and 16 overall team in the first
1:09
round of the ACC tournament by 20 points. But that is a mistake that we sometimes make going into March Madness
1:15
We overweigh the impact of conference tournaments. A lot of teams that make a run and win their conference tournament aren't necessarily the
1:21
hottest team in March Madness, especially if they aren't a bid stealer. According to Ken Palm
1:26
Clemson ranks 23rd overall in adjusted efficiency, which is good for 15th out of the 16 Sweet 16
1:32
teams only ahead of NC State. They're led by star big man PJ Hall, a 6'10 senior who can score on
1:39
all three levels, but he has had a rough tournament so far, only playing in 39 of the 80 available
1:44
minutes due to foul trouble. Senior guards Joseph Girard and Chase Hunter are key pieces for them
1:50
as well. Gerard is a Syracuse transfer who is a part of that 2021 11 seed Syracuse team to make
1:55
the Elite 8. He's a great shooter, shooting 41% from 3 on 7 attempts per game and averaging 15.3
2:01
points. He's also leading the nation in field goal percentage at 95%, which is crazy. Out of his 120
2:07
free throw attempts on the season, he's made 114. And then Chase Hunter, who is the MVP of the
2:14
tournament for the Clemson Tigers so far. He's averaging 20 points per game, which is 8 points
2:18
above his regular season average, and he's also been phenomenal on the defensive end
2:23
So in order for Clemson to win this game versus Arizona, complete the upset, and make their
2:27
first Elite 8 since 1970, a couple things would need to happen
2:31
1. PJ Hall cannot get in foul trouble for the third game in a row
2:35
2. Clemson has to dictate the pace of play in this game
2:39
According to Ken Palm, Clemson plays at a very average tempo, while Arizona plays very fast
2:45
Thirdly, they need Chase Hunter to continue playing at the level he has in his first two games
2:51
And fourthly, which is kind of tied to the first point, they have to find a way to stop
2:55
Umar Balo without getting PJ Hall in foul trouble. I'll circle back to those points in a second, but let's talk about the Arizona Wildcats
3:02
They are the two seed in the West region. Ken Palm has them ranked fifth in adjusted efficiency margin, ninth in offense and 10th
3:09
in defense, which is very impressive. Caleb Love, the Pac-12 player of the year
3:12
the former North Carolina Tar Heel is their leading scorer at 18.1 points per game, but he's
3:17
never been the most efficient shot maker. When Caleb Love is on, nobody can stop him, and when
3:22
he's off, nothing can help him. Pella Larson is Arizona's second leading scorer, tied with Umar
3:28
Balo at 12.9 points per game. He's very efficient, shooting 44% from three, 60% effective field goal
3:34
but I think Clemson has wings to kind of neutralize him, which is why I said earlier
3:38
Umar Balo, the center for Arizona. He's seven feet tall, 260 pounds, creates the most significant
3:44
mismatch for Clemson's defense. I'm unsure what Clemson is going to do here. If you put PJ Hall
3:50
on him, you risk getting your best scorer and your best player in foul trouble. But your other big is
3:54
Ian Shefflin, who's 6'8 and 225 pounds. Simply put, whoever wins this matchup and wins the pace
4:01
of play is probably going to win this game. Obviously, Arizona is the favorite here. I like
4:06
them. They're a super fun team. So please don't be offended if you're an Arizona fan. I just chose
4:10
to go from the Clemson perspective because it's very easy to see how Arizona could win this game
4:15
Stay tuned to the end of this video and I'll give you my prediction on each of these games. Game two, Connecticut, the number one overall seed versus five seed San Diego State. This is a rematch
4:24
of the 2023 national title. And if we take a look at UConn and Ken Palm, you'll just see how dominant
4:30
they've been this year. They're number one in adjusted EM, second in offense and eighth in
4:34
defense and the last time a team has had a 32 or above adjusted efficiency was 2021 Gonzaga and
4:40
Baylor who ironically both met each other in the national title game with Baylor winning it all
4:45
SDSU on the other hand is ranked 17th in adjusted efficiency 53rd in offense 8th in defense
4:51
conventional wisdom would tell you to have the Aztecs just slow the game down to a crawl and
4:55
control it but the Huskies thrive in that environment matter of fact they are below
4:58
average in adjusted tempo and average possession length they shoot 57.2 percent from the field
5:04
as a team. They turn the ball over at a super low rate and they get an insane amount of offensive
5:09
boards. UConn is currently on an eight game double digit win streak in the NCAA tournament dating
5:15
back to 2023. The record is 2001 Michigan State with nine. Just an absolutely dominant run so far
5:22
for Connecticut. Point guard Tristan Newton is their best player averaging 15 points per game
5:27
6.8 rebounds and 6.2 assists. You have Cam Spencer, a sharp shooter, shooting 44% from three
5:33
on six attempts per game alex caravan a versatile 6 wing who shooting 64 from inside the arc and 39 from outside big man donovan clingan who averages 12 points per game on an extremely efficient 65 from the field Oh yeah and he seven foot two
5:49
Let's say San Diego State somehow finds a way to stop all four of these guys
5:53
Well, then UConn has Stephon Castle, a freshman who is a projected lottery pick
5:58
in the upcoming NBA draft. Dan Hurley's team is just absolutely loaded
6:01
The one thing I'll say about San Diego State is that Jaden Lede is having an incredible tournament
6:05
He's averaging 29 points per game on incredibly efficient shooting numbers, but I just don't think he has enough scoring talent
6:12
around him to hang with UConn, even if they were to play pretty well on defense
6:17
That's all I got on game number two. Game three, one seed North Carolina
6:21
versus four seed Alabama. The Tar Heels are ranked ninth overall in Ken Palm adjusted efficiency
6:27
17th in offense and sixth in defense, while Alabama ranks third worst
6:31
out of the Sweet 16 teams at 14th, fourth in offense and 101st in defense
6:36
Simply put, Alabama is living and dying by their offense and their ability to score at a high rate
6:42
It's their identity. They're going to beat you by scoring more points than you. They're 8th in adjusted tempo, meaning they love to run
6:49
But UNC isn't that far behind them at 41st in the nation. They can run if they want to as well
6:55
This game has the highest total of any in the Sweet 16 and is a whopping 19 points higher than the second highest total on this slate, Gonzaga-Purdue at 154.5
7:05
In Bama's first round matchup, they gave up a whopping 96 points to the College of Charleston
7:10
Now they scored 109, so that's great. But Charleston ranks the 178th defense in the nation
7:16
Meanwhile, the Tar Heels rank 6. After looking into it more, Bama is 3-7 this year versus teams with a top 40 defensive rating on Ken Palm
7:26
With one of those wins being last week versus Grand Canyon in the round of 32
7:30
I will say Mark Sears is an absolute dog. He's averaging 21 points per game
7:34
He was also a freshman at the University of Ohio with Jason Preston in 2021 when they made a run to the round of 32
7:41
He's shooting an absurd 43.5% from three on 5.6 attempts per game, giving him an incredible 59.9 effective field goal percentage
7:49
Bama loves to crash the offensive boards. They rank 26th in the nation, but North Carolina is the sixth best team in the nation at preventing offensive rebounds
7:57
I just think this is a bad matchup for Alabama. Could they win in a shootout 95-91
8:03
Absolutely. But the combination of guys like RJ Davis, who also averages 21 per game
8:08
Armando Baycott and Harrison Ingram, I think will just be too much for Bama
8:13
Game four on this slate, the nightcap Thursday night. This is my favorite matchup of the Sweet 16
8:19
the Big 12 champions, the two seed Iowa State versus the Big 10 champions, the three seed Illinois
8:26
And more importantly, the number one defense in the country versus the number one offense
8:29
in the country. Shout out to Andrew Weatherman for finding this, but this is actually just the 10th time since 2012, the first since 2021, that the number one
8:37
Ken Palm offense is playing the number one Ken Palm defense, and it's been pretty even in the
8:42
first nine matchups with the defense winning five out of nine. Iowa State's leading scorer is
8:47
Keyshawn Gilbert, averaging 13.7 points per game, but the X Factor for me is Taiman Lipsy
8:52
point guard who is homegrown from Ames, Iowa, went to Ames High School. The Cyclones have a really
8:58
balanced attack on offense and a cohesive defensive unit that has stifled teams. I mean
9:03
just look at their most recent game versus Houston. They beat them 67-41, which is crazy
9:09
They're fully capable of shutting down the best offenses in the nation, but some of the teams to
9:13
have given them trouble are teams like BYU, Texas A&M, and even Baylor who have elite offenses and
9:18
so-so defenses. But that's not to say that Iowa State can't win those games. They did drop a game
9:23
to BYU giving up 87 points early in the season which is super uncharacteristic but they'd bounce
9:29
back versus BYU later in the season winning and only giving up 63. For the Illini they have one
9:34
of the most talented scorers of the basketball in the nation in Terrence Shannon Jr. a 6-6 wing
9:39
who's averaging 23.3 points per game. He's a very efficient scorer as well with a 56.6 effective
9:45
field goal percentage and he's just completely relentless when getting to the rim. But in my
9:49
opinion the x-factor for Illinois is their second leading scorer and Southern Illinois transfer
9:54
Marcus Damask. In their opening game he had the 10th ever triple double in NCAA history and I think
10:01
he's going to be super important for handling this Iowa State defense. Now another thing about Illinois
10:06
is they are extremely tall and long especially in their starting lineup which I think has a chance
10:11
to give Iowa State some issues but Illinois has also lost two teams with somewhat comparable
10:16
metrics to Iowa State like Michigan State earlier this year. Sparty finished with the 11th ranked
10:20
defense and 51st ranked offense which is remarkably worse than Iowa State when comparing. But what it
10:26
shows is that Illinois can be vulnerable to a team that's identity is on defense with offense being
10:31
secondary. I honestly have no idea yet who I like in this game and that's why it's the most fun game
10:36
on the slate for me. I'll decide by the end of the video. Both schools are looking to make their
10:40
first elite eight run in decades. Iowa State's last one was in 2000 versus Michigan State where
10:46
they would lose to Mateen Cleaves' national title team. And then for Illinois, it would be the first
10:51
time in the elite eight since 2005 when Dee Brown led them to a national title game. Game five
10:56
our first game on Friday, two seed Marquette versus 11 seed NC State. The Wolf Pack are the
11:01
only double digit seed left in the tournament and like I've said before, nobody expected them to be
11:06
here either. They were a bid stealer who won the ACC tournament giving them a
11:11
birth into March Madness. NC State's by far the worst metric wise on this list
11:15
but that's to be expected with a team like this. What they are now is not what
11:19
they were for most of the year The Wolfpack are led by senior guard DJ Horn who averages 16 points per game and senior big man DJ Burns who averages 12 Horn has had quite the quiet tournament so far at least by his standards averaging 13 points per
11:33
game. Meanwhile, nobody has had an answer for DJ Burns, who's averaging 20, and has went 7-for-11
11:39
and 9-for-12 from the field in his two games. NC State needs the DJ Horn of the ACC tournament
11:46
in order to get past Marquette in this one. The Golden Eagles, however, rank 13th on Ken Palm
11:51
and they're a very balanced team, 19th in offense, 21st in defense, led by their leading scorer Cam
11:57
Jones and star point guard Tyler Kolick. Cam is averaging 17.1 points per game this year on 41.4
12:04
from three. Meanwhile, Tyler Kolick is averaging 15.3 points per game, 7.9 assists, and 4.8 rebounds
12:11
To me, he's the best point guard in the nation right now. I am somewhat curious how they're going
12:15
to guard DJ Burns. Marquette's big man, Oso Iguodaro, is 6'9", 205. Maybe they put David Joplin on him
12:22
who's 6'7", 215 and just try to front him. I'm not really sure how Shaka Smart will decide to
12:27
attack this, but I do see that as a mismatch in favor of the Wolfpack. However, Marquette's offense
12:32
has been extremely efficient in this tournament. In their win versus Colorado, they shot 70 plus
12:37
percent from the field in the first half, and I just don't see how NC State is going to keep up
12:41
with that type of offense. Like I stated earlier, they really need DJ Horn to step up
12:46
and have a game like he did in the ACC Championship, defeating North Carolina and scoring 29 points
12:52
Game six of the Sweet 16, number one seed Purdue versus five seed Gonzaga
12:57
We'll start with Gonzaga, a team that people foolishly, myself included, yes, I am ashamed about this
13:02
were picking to get upset by McNeese State, a team that played absolutely nobody
13:07
during the regular season. Mark few teams just simply do not get upset
13:11
in the first round. I mentioned this in one of my previous recaps, but Gonzaga under Mark Few has
13:16
only been upset twice in the first round. And one of those times was in 2008 against someone you may
13:22
have heard of, Stephen Curry. Now it's one thing to make it past the first round, even the second
13:27
round, but it is a whole nother thing matching up against a team like Purdue. I know what you're
13:31
thinking. Purdue has this stigma, especially after losing to a 16 seed last year, but this team is
13:36
just not the same team as 2023 by every available metric. If we take a look at their adjusted
13:43
efficiency margin on Ken Palm last year, when they got upset as a one seed, they were 23.24
13:49
good for seventh in the nation this year, they're 30.51. And just to show you how good of a number
13:54
north of 30 is for Ken Palm, it is incredibly rare for three teams or more to be above that
14:00
threshold in any given season. Matter of fact, it's happened just in five seasons over the past
14:05
25 years. Purdue has the third best offense in the nation and the 15th best defense. And obviously a
14:12
huge part of that offense is the reigning player of the year, Zach Eadie. He demands so much
14:17
attention with every touch he gets in the post. These are the first teams in our Sweet 16 matchups
14:22
to have played in the regular season. It was only their fourth and fifth game of the year, but they
14:27
did play in the Maui Invitational with Purdue winning 73-63. Both teams shot poorly from three
14:34
and since then, Gonzaga has shifted to a three big starting lineup, which I think could be an
14:39
interesting wrinkle to this game. Graham Eke is Gonzaga's leading scorer, a transfer from Wyoming
14:45
and he's obviously a huge X factor for Gonzaga pulling off this upset. Most likely, he's drawn
14:50
the tough task of guarding Zach Eadie, a player who draws the most foul calls in college basketball
14:55
but honestly, Eke is an absolute bucket in his own right on the offensive end, and he's a huge
15:00
reason why Gonzaga has the seventh best offense in the nation. He's averaging 16.4 points per game
15:06
7.3 rebounds on 61.2% from the field. Then you have fifth year senior Anton Watson for Gonzaga
15:13
who averages 14 points per game at seven boards as well. And what's different about him is that
15:17
he's been here before. He was on that 2021 Jalen Suggs team that made a national title. On the
15:23
Purdue side, we all know about Zach Eadie. He's averaging 24 and 12. Braden Smith, sophomore point
15:29
guard averaging 12 points per game on 44% from three with seven assists and 5.7 rebounds which
15:35
is pretty crazy for a little guy like him he's already established himself this season in that
15:40
upper echelon of point guards but I think this is a massive spot for Braden Smith to put himself
15:46
on the map nationally and into a conversation with guys like Tyler Kolek and Tristan Newton
15:52
this game's probably going to come down to foul trouble and who gets into it first if EK does the
15:57
game probably is over for Gonzaga. If Edie somehow does, it could smell trouble for Purdue
16:02
Lastly, one cool tidbit I found about these two teams is that Zach Edie and Graham Ike are first
16:09
and second in the nation, according to Ken Palm in individual offensive ratings. So it's safe to
16:14
say you are going to see some exquisite big man traditional offense in this game. Game seven
16:20
number one seed Houston versus number four seed Duke. I'm not going to lie, guys. I'm a little
16:25
worried about Houston after that Texas A&M game. I told you guys it was going to be close and if
16:30
the Cougars draw an officiating crew that likes to be whistle happy, I don't think it bodes well
16:36
for them. Houston has the second best defense in the country. They also are second in Ken Palm
16:41
adjusted efficiency margin at 31.58 and they have the 14th best offense. They play very slow. They
16:48
love to play physical. LJ Cryer, a transfer from Baylor last season, is their leading scorer. But
16:54
Jamal Shedd overall is their best player and their leader in my opinion. He's an absolute dog. He's
16:58
averaging 13.2 points per game, 6.4 assists. Sophomore guard Emmanuel Sharp has been having
17:04
an incredible tournament including fresh off a career high 30 versus Texas A So don get me wrong guys I do enjoy Houston I think they have as good a chance as anybody to make a national title There just something about this Duke team
17:16
and about this game that has me feeling uneasy if I was a Houston fan. Duke's freshman guard
17:21
Jared McCain, is fresh off a 30 bomb against what I think was a very good James Madison team
17:27
They beat by 40. Their leading score is 7 feet tall, averaging 16 points per game in Kyle
17:32
Filipowski. And senior guard Jeremy Roach has the incredible experience of making it to a Final Four
17:38
in 2022. Plus, Duke's advanced metrics are actually really good as well. They're 5th best in offense
17:44
19th best in defense, and 6th best overall. I don't know. I just have a feeling that Jared
17:49
McCain is going to have one of those legacy runs. But I don't know. Maybe I'll be apologizing to all
17:54
you Houston fans in our recap video tomorrow. Our final game of the day, and in my opinion
17:58
the second best game on this slate number two seed Tennessee versus number three seed Creighton
18:03
in a world where Zach Eadie doesn't exist Tennessee has the player of the year in Dalton
18:08
Connect a transfer from Northern Colorado he has been absolutely phenomenal this year it does worry
18:14
me the poor shooting night he had versus Texas in the round of 32 going five for 18 from the field
18:20
including one for eight from three but he was able to get to the line going seven for eight
18:25
and was still able to score 18 points. Plus, I've been trying to figure out
18:29
who on Creighton has the ability to guard him. Trey Alexander is probably going to draw the matchup
18:34
but he's about 6'4", so he is giving up some size in that matchup
18:38
And if we check out Tennessee's Ken Palm rankings, they're ranked 8th in the nation
18:43
3rd best in defense, 29th in offense. Meanwhile, the Creighton Blue Jays are 11th overall
18:48
with the 11th best offense and the 23rd best defense. In order for Creighton to win this game and have success
18:54
they are going to have to shoot the heck out of the ball from three but that's kind of creighton's
18:58
mo in general for winning games they attempt the most amount of threes per game compared to the
19:02
rest of the 15 teams in the sweet 16 and they're led by three-headed offensive monster in baylor
19:08
shireman a transfer from south dakota state two years ago who's averaging 18.3 points per game
19:13
9.1 rebounds four assists and 38 from three on a massive 8.2 attempts per game junior guard trey
19:20
Alexander is averaging 17.7 points per game as well. And seven foot big man Ryan Cockbrenner is
19:26
averaging 17.4 points per game. A role player who was huge for them in their round of 32 win versus
19:32
Oregon was Steven Ashworth, a 6'1 senior guard who averages 11 points per game. But Tennessee's
19:38
big man Jonas Adu is my X factor in this game. I think his physicality can bother Ryan Cockbrenner
19:45
quite a bit. And as much as I like Creighton, I just don't see how this Tennessee defense doesn't
19:50
wear them down. If Creighton wants to win, they're probably going to have to turn this into a shootout
19:55
which they are fully capable of doing. And who knows, maybe Tennessee's offense is just struggling
19:59
in this tournament and the Texas game wasn't a one-off, but more of a symptom of what's to come
20:05
So finally, to recap with my predictions, I didn't really plan on making predictions for this video
20:11
but here we are. In game one, I'm going to go out on an absolute limb and pick Clemson to beat
20:17
Arizona in the upset. Maybe this is because I watched too much Clemson film and research for
20:22
this video, but I think Clemson has the ability to dictate the pace of play, slow it down
20:27
execute their sets in the half court, which they are great at doing. I think Chase Hunter is an
20:32
excellent matchup on defense for Caleb Love, and PJ Hall is going to have a redemption game
20:38
It's gonna be close, but I'm picking Clemson and you guys can make fun of me if I'm wrong
20:43
Game two is pretty much a no-brainer for me. UConn steamrolls San Diego State
20:47
In game three, I think North Carolina narrowly beats Alabama. I'll say by four points
20:52
Game four, this is by far the hardest one for me. My heart wants to say Iowa State
20:57
and I'm probably going to regret this because I love the Cyclones
21:01
but I'm gonna go with Illinois. I think Illinois' offense prevails in this one. I think Marcus DeMas comes up huge
21:06
I think Iowa State's offense just doesn't have enough juice to keep up
21:10
Maybe there's a five to six minute stretch where they just go completely scoreless or
21:14
one field goal. And that's all the align I need to build out an eight to nine point lead that Iowa State
21:20
just cannot get back. Game five, Marquette versus NC State. I'm going to go Marquette here
21:25
I have them making the final four. This is a Tyler Colick tournament
21:29
And unfortunately, I have them ending NC State's magical Sweet 16 run
21:34
Game six, Purdue versus Gonzaga. I think Purdue wins this game by 7 or 8 points, but I do think Graham Ike puts up like 25 and
21:42
tries to keep it close for Gonzaga. Game 7, Houston vs. Duke. Again, I could look very foolish here
21:48
and I'm okay with being wrong. Houston could blow the brakes off of Duke, but I'm picking Duke to
21:53
win this game. I'm betting on a great game from Jared McCain. I think this game comes down to the
21:58
last possession, but I think the Blue Devils prevail, and Jared McCain just seems to be the
22:02
type of player to come up clutch in these moments. And game eight, finally, Tennessee versus Creighton
22:08
I have Tennessee winning this one. I think Dalton Connect will just not be denied, and he's going to
22:13
show why he is the second best player in the nation behind Zach Eadie in this game. Plus, I think
22:19
Tennessee's defense will stifle Creighton's offense just enough to eke this one out. I hope you enjoyed
22:24
this video as much as I did making it. I will be doing recaps for the Sweet 16 and the Elite Eight
22:29
But instead of daily, it's going to be one video for the Sweet 16 and one video for the Elite 8
22:35
That way, we have enough to talk about in the video. If you enjoyed this video and you haven't checked out my daily recaps for the first two rounds of March Madness
22:42
check that out here. Start with day one and go all the way to day four, if you so wish
22:48
Thanks for watching, guys. This past week has been absolutely incredible for me
22:52
And as always, we'll see you on the hardwood
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