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The 'potential flashpoint for war’ between India and Pakistan | LBC
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May 8, 2025
Foreign analyst Tim Marshall details to Shelagh Fogarty the ‘potential flashpoint for a modern water war’ between India and Pakistan, and explains the origins behind it. 'There may be a lid on it for the moment', but Tim details what events might escalate the conflict, as he emphasises the dangers of the conflict. It may be a 'David and Goliath' situation, but 'David has a nuclear weapon in his sling'. Listen to the full show on Global Player: https://app.af.globalplayer.com/Br0x/LBCYouTubeListenLive #LBC #shelaghfogarty #india #pakistan #nuclearwar #kashmir LBC is the home of live debate around news and current affairs in the UK. Join in the conversation and listen at https://www.lbc.co.uk/ Sign up to LBC’s weekly newsletter here: https://l-bc.co/signup
View Video Transcript
0:00
India and Pakistan has become something of a conflagration, or have become something of a conflagration overnight
0:06
Tensions escalating there after India launched missile strikes in Pakistan and in Pakistan administered Kashmir
0:13
Pakistan says six locations were attacked and claims to have shot down five Indian fighter jets
0:20
India hasn't yet confirmed this. And Pakistan says 26 people have been killed and 46 injured by the strikes and by firing along what's called the line of control
0:31
Let's get more on all of this from Tim Marshall, foreign affairs yst. Hi, Tim
0:36
Hello, Sheila. What's behind all of this? What's the background to all of this
0:43
Partition. 1947-48, the British leaving and the subcontinent being divided between Pakistan and India
0:51
kashmir big region right at the very top in the foothills of the himalayas said under its hindu
0:58
then hindu real ruler we don't want to be in either country we'd rather be independent
1:02
the pakistani militia then began to attack him and his security forces he asked india to step
1:10
in and help and signed the accession act to make it part of india that sparked the first war between
1:17
the two countries and ever since then it has been partitioned india says that there that signing by
1:25
the then leader means legally the whole of cashmere is india pakistan says the whole of cashmere is
1:31
pakistani because under the terms of the division as a majority muslim region it should have gone to
1:38
pakistan so they've had three wars over this um it's still divided with the troops of each side
1:47
in each area. And then there's the added complication that they have agreed to share
1:53
the waters that flow through Kashmir down into both countries. But there's a problem
1:59
The waters first run through Indian controlled Kashmir before then some of the rivers then
2:07
flowing down into Pakistan. So India's got its hand on the tap, which has always been a source
2:13
of frustration and tension and following the terrorist attack last month when a Pakistani
2:20
terror group killed 26 civilians, 25 of them Hindu Indian men, having singled them out and
2:27
finding out their religion India has said right that water agreement is suspended So they are at more than daggers drawn at the moment Is it you mentioned the water there is it therefore a resource war Or is it
2:43
is this late, is it embedded deeply in the original partition reason and the water element
2:49
is just the latest, the latest reason? Yeah, it's the latter. I mean, it is one of the
2:56
potential flashpoints for a 21st century war to war is Kashmir. But that is not the source
3:04
of the enmity. It is that each side is absolutely certain of the justness of its own cause
3:10
that this territory should be theirs. Now, it is strategic, yes. For example
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if India controlled the whole of Kashmir, Pakistan wouldn't have a border with China
3:21
which at the moment suits both China and Pakistan because of the trade links and the
3:25
Belton Road that goes all the way down to a port in the south of Pakistan. And of course
3:30
it suits Pakistan for that very reason. So yes, it is strategic, but it is also a very
3:38
very emotional contest between the two, each saying right is on their side. And I was struck
3:46
by the name of the operation, Shayla. The Indians have called this Operation Sindor
3:51
Sindor is a colour that Indian women put on the centre of their foreheads to signify marriage
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And a lot of the Hindu men that were singled out last month to be murdered were on honeymoon
4:06
And that's why the Indians have called this Operation Sindor. But that just reminded me of the depths of emotion that this particular cause embodies in both communities and in the diaspora communities around the world
4:20
Yeah, and the very moment of partition will filter down into every family in all three places, won't it
4:27
And that clearly runs very deeply. What can the international community do, if anything
4:31
Because, of course, these are nuclear powers, aren't they? Well, both sides, yeah
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And that's actually why it's so important. I mean, it's David versus Goliath
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But David, in this particular version of the story, has got a nuclear weapon in his sling
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Goliath also has them. So there's actually parity at that level, even if conventionally India is overwhelmingly stronger
4:55
I'm not sure there's that much most of the international community can do
5:00
I mean, Britain does have decent relations with both countries, has got channels of communication and is using them to try to calm them down
5:07
But I'm just not sure how much sway. I mean imagine if the UK was suddenly involved in a war with Russia and Pakistan got on the phone to us you know how much would it really persuade us what we were going to do next I mean I just reading the comments from David Lammy
5:21
the Foreign Secretary, and they are, you know, he has to make them, but they feel like holding comments
5:27
rather than anything of any heft. I'm glad you said that, Sheila
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because I do find sometimes the media reports that sort of announcement as if it's really meaningful
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Another example is we always see on the television, and I'm not really blaming media for this
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except if they don't put it into context. The UN Secretary General has called for what he always calls for
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at times like this, but he's got extremely limited influence. So although they have to say these things and so they should
6:01
and they should be reported, we shouldn't pretend that they're having much influence
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I think the influence will come from China on Pakistan. They are very close links these days for various reasons
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including that China is a massive rival of India's. And, you know, they are calling for calm because they don't want a war
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The Americans have influence on both sides, but these days are closer to India than they are to Pakistan
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They have an influence. So it's quite right that people are calling for calm
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but they will do what they will do. On the positive side, if you look at the action so far and at the words from both sides, it's clear neither want a war
6:42
The Indians, their target list, and they said this in their press release, we demonstrated restraint
6:49
We did not target any Pakistani military facilities. So what they're saying to the Pakistani military, which basically run the country, I mean, not a single Pakistani prime minister has ever finished his term of office
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has always been removed one way or another. It's the military that are running things
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What they're saying to the Pakistani military is, we still think you were the ones that supplied the weapons
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and funded the terror group that did this to us, but you'll notice we've only gone after them
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And the Pakistani response to this has been relatively restrained in that it's cross-border artillery shelling in Kashmir
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which is something that happens from time to time anyway. so at the moment there is a lid on it the things to watch for are if the Pakistani claim of shooting
7:35
down five planes is true which I don't believe there is some odd footage of one potential plane
7:42
that may have gone down but even that I suspect is not true but if they have that going to escalate and the other one is if each side crosses the border not with missiles but with either troops very unlikely or their aircraft If their aircraft go across the line of control and into each other country that would be raising the states
8:03
We're not there. And at the moment, I don't think either side wants to get there
8:07
Well, let's hope not. And in the sheerly, sheer practical sense, I should say, here in the UK, big Indian and Pakistani communities and families, some back and forth between the two countries, a great deal of travel between our country and both of those countries anyway
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I see that hundreds of scheduled flights have been cancelled. So there's practical knock on effects as well here already, aren't there
8:32
There are in two ways. I mean, some people will be trying to come home to here
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which will be difficult. Other people have a difficult decision to make
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that even if the planes are going, do they want to go into a region which could get much worse
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I mean, as I said, I think at the moment, both sides know the stakes they're playing for
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And I don't think they want to escalate. But there's this really macabre dance
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that you signal via gunpowder and you calibrate actions to a certain level to send messages
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and the problem with it is that you can blow all that up. But the other thing is, and it's a delicate subject
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but there are tensions between the communities here. We saw it a couple of years ago
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It was sparked by a cricket match of all things. And there will be tensions and if things don't calm down
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And, you know, there's always a very few minority of people amongst various communities that actually want stuff to happen
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And those siren voices, I mean, most sensible people won't listen to them
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But, you know, it is a very tense time and a very emotional issue. We're in a nervous world, aren't we? Not just in this story
9:46
Oh, it was ever. It keeps you busy, Tim. It keeps you so busy. But it's just unbelievable, really, when you look at, I mean, the world is always on fire one way or another
9:56
but it just seems to be extremely... Sheila, I disagree. Oh, go on
10:01
I'll try and be brief, but we had a saying in news, we don't film planes not crashing
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we don't film houses not on fire. The world actually mostly is not on fire
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but when it is, you have to pay attention. I know what you mean, but the point I was making is
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there is always something going on in terms of conflict and war, is that what I mean
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But I take your point, yeah. Everything's fine for everyone today, except over here and we'll report on that
10:27
Thanks, Tim. Take your point. Tim Marshall, Foreign Affairs yst
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