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Joining me now live here on LBC is Andrew Fox, a military yst, research fellow of the anti-extremism think tank, the Henry Jackson Society
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He was an officer in the parachute regiment of the British Army
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Andrew Fox, thanks very much indeed for being on the program tonight
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Where do you think this all is going? I mean, is Donald Trump seriously going to leave the sort of the military sort of Damocles hanging over the Iranians for two weeks while he waits to see if negotiations can actually make progress that they didn't make during that 60 days that he keeps talking about
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You know, the arbitrary deadline that he set for talks that expired last weekend
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The simple answer to that is yes. I think Mr. Trump would always prefer a deal, particularly something that he could trumpet as a win that nobody else has achieved before
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And he'd have a huge domestic win in doing so because he could show that the threat of military force was enough to bring a ceasefire without actually committing American troops into the fight
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So that would play extremely well with his base. And we know that he's still been making rhetorical statements that suggest that Iran are still open to it
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You know, that pathway to a deal is still open. So I think that would probably be Mr Trump preferred choice Andrew one of our listeners has texted in Tom who says the worry now will be that Benjamin Netanyahu will try to force Trump hand by provoking a situation
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that gives him no choice in the next two weeks. That's a possible set of circumstances, isn't it
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I mean, yes and no. I mean, it would be a very bold move for Israel to risk their relationship
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with the White House like that. And then, of course, there's a risk of it backfiring and
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escalating the situation and america still don't come into the fight so i think i think that's
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straying slightly into the realms of conspiracy theory the bigger the bigger question i think is
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what do america actually achieve by by entering the fight what's the cost benefit ysis and
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from the american perspective it comes at very high risk with actually very little reward because
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the israelis have got this that you know they're absolutely this is one-way traffic in iran at the
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moment and they can prosecute any target that they fancy at this at this stage the only thing they
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can't do is four day uh that does need something a bit bigger but they could potentially do a special
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forces raid as they did in syria last year um an underground facility and that was very successful
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so there's still options for the israelis but the risks of america going in and that toppling the
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regime in in iran is a huge amount of potential instability and no guarantee whatsoever that what
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replaces the current regime would be any better so from where i sat if i the white house i don add that much value and i take a huge risk if i do commit myself This two weeks though is hauntingly familiar He keeps giving Vladimir Putin two more weeks
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to talk properly about a ceasefire in Ukraine. Everything with President Trump is always kicked down the road by two weeks
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and often by much longer than that. Now you could argue that he's sending a message to the Iranian leadership
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that he's not willing to take military action and he'll just continue kicking the ball down the road
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and that they can continue playing for time? Well, of course, there is a very good chance
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that in two weeks' time this war may well be over. We know at the start of the war
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they anticipated Israeli interceptor missile defence stocks at about 10 to 14 days' worth
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As the IDF degrades Iran's launcher capability, we can probably extend that a bit
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But they're unlikely to have more than three weeks of missile defences
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And, of course, Iran has had about 50% of its pre-war rocket stocks destroyed or they fired them
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So we could conceivably reach a point where Iran doesn't have any more ammunition to fire at Israel
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at which case I think we're very likely to see some kind of attempt at a deal. Or we reach the point where Israel missile defences start running low and then it a very different ballgame So two weeks I think feels fairly tactical at this point But if you argue I not saying you do but the Israelis certainly argue
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that the Iranians are weeks away from acquiring a nuclear weapon, Donald Trump's just basically set the clock running, hasn't he
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I mean, he said he's not going to make a decision within the next two weeks
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If you're the Iranians, aren't you now hell for leather racing? to finish that nuclear bomb
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if indeed there was one that was being created? Yeah, potentially. I mean, they still have to have the ability to fire it
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which Israel is certainly working very hard at degrading. And I'd imagine it also sets a clock running for Israel
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to actually do something about the nuclear sites they haven't struck so far. So Mr Trump has injected an element of chaos
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into this campaign. And this kind of uncertainty, I don't think, is particularly strategic or helpful
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certainly from an Israeli perspective, possibly from an Iranian perspective, but it's all about Washington
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It is still America first, and I think that's what we're seeing here. Andrew Fox, I'm very grateful to you
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Thanks so much for being on the programme. Andrew Fox is a military yst and research fellow
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with the anti-extremism think tank, the Henry Jackson Society, and he's an officer in the parachute regiment
