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House of Commons chamber really filling up now
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People expecting this vote within the next couple of minutes. We'll, of course, bring that to you live
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Natasha Clark is with me in the studio giving her ysis and also maybe answering some of your questions
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03456060973. You can WhatsApp us on that number too, or you can text 84850
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SB says, there's no shame in being ideologically conservative. Why did Liz Kendall, Rachel Reeves and Yvette Cooper
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not join the Conservative Party if that's what they believe. I guess that's a sort of rhetorical question
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but there are lots of Labour MPs that will have a lot of sympathy with that comment
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Yeah, and actually, you know what? The message we've just got here does really bring up another point
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Who is to blame for this shambles? And I think, obviously, the next 24 hours, 48 hours
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there'll be a lot of introspective looking back at what's been happening the last few weeks
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at the heart of government, and who is going to take the flack for it? Because Kirsten's authority is weakened
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Is it his fault? Is it the Chancellor's fault? Is it Liz Kendall's fault? Is it Morgan McSweeney, the political operation at number 10
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You know, they've all been a key part of this. All of the above
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Some people will say, but some people will be trying to point the finger of blame away from themselves and their bosses towards others over the next sort of 48 hours
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And there will be a huge blame game going on about how Keir Starmer got so close
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to losing such a crucial vote. In your judgment, did this bill come from Liz Kendall or did it come from Rachel Reeves
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So what was the driving force behind it? Well, if you remember Liz Kendall in one of the Labour leadership races
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she's always been on the right of the party, right? So I think she was the perfect fit to put someone in
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who was going to be tough on welfare. And I remember talking to her actually in the studio
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before the last election when she was shadow. And, you know, she was looking at the figures from the budget
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looking at the welfare budget, pointing at them going, look at this, look what I'm going to have to deal with
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when I'm in government. And, you know, it was very clear to her from very early on that she was going to have a huge, huge fight on her hands
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So I think she was willing to take it on. But I think that Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor obviously, had to make some savings somewhere
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And the reforms that she wanted to make I think she wanted much much more money up front to be able to do some more radical things And I think the Chancellor clipped her wings there So there will definitely be questions for Rachel Reeves about why on earth she didn feel that she was able to give her as much money as she
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wanted to make those real reforms of the system. We all know reforms, you know, take time and they
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cost money. And it's just money the Chancellor doesn't have right now. So will the blame lie
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there with her, with Rachel Reeves, for not giving the money to get this sorted and to get this right
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and now Rachel Reeves obviously is going to have to find even more money because these reforms now aren't going through, aren't saving anything
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but equally if you're standing in the Chancellor's chair and you look at Liz Kendall and you go, well, you know, you haven't made the case well enough, you haven't got this through
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this is your department, you have not made the case well enough to MPs. Now the tellers are at the mace
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we're expecting the Deputy Speaker Nusgani to rise to her feet in a moment
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It's a really packed chamber, in fact I can't remember seeing it so packed, there's people sort of spilling over into the central bit
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Remember the two sword lengths in that little bit at the back of the chamber there
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Nuskani is now on her feet. The ayes to the right, 335
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The noes to the left, 260. The ayes to the right, 335
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The noes to the left, 260. so the ayes have it, the ayes have it unlock
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you have to wonder how many people didn't vote there because that doesn't add up
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to 650 does it? So that says to me a huge rebellion
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but just abstentions from the Labour MPs who just did not want to vote for this in any way
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335 obviously looking at what you need to get that through majority of 75, the government's majority
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is what 160 or something that is a sizable Labour rebellion but probably abstentions and like i say we'll get the breakdown can we just go back into
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the comments because helen wakely is making a point of order please advise whether this should
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still be rushed through to be debated next week here at committee stage or whether the government
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should in fact withdraw this bill the honorable members put her point on the record and the
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honorable member has been a minister in the past as she will know the scheduling of business is a matter for government and not for the chair
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Program motion to be moved formally. So, Helen Wakeley there, the Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary, basically saying, look, this is a whole shambles
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It shouldn't be rushed through Parliament in the way the government wanted. She knew perfectly well the Deputy Speaker wasn't going to cling to that
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But it was a point well made, I suppose. Yeah, it's a legitimate argument to ask, well, given the shambles around this, is it right and fair that the government pushes this through next week? And obviously, we'll get business update from the leader of the House on Thursday, and it may be that the government will decide not to put it through. At this stage, if I were them, I'd say, look, let's just take some time to step back from this and look at what can be done
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But just going back to those numbers, a majority of 75 when you're Keir Starmer with this huge majority that you've got, that's embarrassing for Keir Starmer
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It's going to be a question of his leadership that so many Labour MPs have either voted against this or have abstained completely
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And, you know, 260 MPs that voted against this, that will obviously be Tories
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That'll be the Reform Party. That'll be all the other parties that decided to vote this down completely
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But still quite embarrassing, quite awkward for Keir Starmer that he's managed to get this through
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only after taking all of these major things out. So it really tells me that Number 10 were seriously worried
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they were going to lose this vote. They had to make those concessions, otherwise this would not have passed
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But yes, it just kicks the can down the road, potentially to next week for that committee stage
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potentially to the Tim's review later on. But, you know, Kirstam's authority
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has been completely shot by this whole debacle. I don't know whether I should make this ogy or not
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but when I was one year old in 1963, Harold Macmillan carried out a reshuffle
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which was dubbed the Night of the Long Knives because he felt he needed to revive his government
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I think he sacked a third of his cabinet and Jeremy Thorpe
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who was then just a backbench Liberal MP rose to his feet
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and said greater love hath no man than he lay down his
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something like his allies for his political life I'm just wondering if Liz Kendall tonight
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as she sort of looks herself in the bathroom mirror might be thinking to herself I haven got much longer in this job Yeah I mean if I were her i be feeling pretty thrown under the bus tonight if i were liz kendall she has been standing up in the house of common
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saying one thing all day she's been defending these welfare reforms day in day out for six
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months and now the government have basically said they're not going to do them so yeah i really want
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to hear from liz kendall really about what she's thinking about this you know after the concessions
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were made on friday she was basically making first out the door making the case saying we strengthened
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it, we will look at it, we still want to do these pip changes, completely defending it
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How can she go out tomorrow over the weekend? I think she's doing
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a pool clip tonight, which is a bit of a coward's way out, I think
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Well, yes, we will hear from her at some point where, you know, I just don't understand how she
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can say that this is anything substantial in it anymore. The main controversial
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bit has been totally done. Okay, let's do some role play here. You're me, and I'm Liz Kendall
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Okay. Ask me a question. Liz Kendall, your authority has been completely
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completely destroyed. You have been defending these government changes day in, day out
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and now your government has ripped the hearts out of them. You have only passed them essentially by a whisker after a huge government majority
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Why are you still in your job? Well, Natasha, you say passed by a whisker
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We've got a majority of 75. Most governments would kill for majorities of 75
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That's a complete endorsement of what we're trying to do to reform the welfare system
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I don't think it is. Very good, very good government role play there
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But I don't think it is. I think that this will be seen as so many MPs refusing to back even the principle of welfare reform
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And if you're looking at this and you're only getting it through by 10 MPs now, what happens if you go back and look at actual pit reform
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They cannot go back and look at pit reform. It's not going to happen. The main meat has now been taken out of this. The government have realised the strength of feeling on this
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I don't think they'll be back to it at all. I just think this is going to give me a complete whitewash
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it's going to go through committee, it's going to be rushed through and the government will, you know, drop it and just never talk about it again
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Somebody's corrected me saying the night of the Long Knives reshuffle was the 13th of July 1962
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That was actually two days before I was born. OK, so your memory is really good. Yeah, well, I wasn't born, that's my excuse
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And I'm sticking to it. And the government will be coming up with lots of excuses over the course of this evening