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So we're here outside number 10 Downing Street today
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It's been a year since Keir Starmer's historic election victory, where the streets just behind me were absolutely packed
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lined with people cheering and smiling. So Keir Starmer obviously is going to be in quite a reflective mood
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as he looks back on his first year in government in number 10
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in the building just behind me. So we thought we'd take the chance to have a look back on Keir Starmer's first year
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Sadly, Lewis Goodall, not available. Sadly, Agui Chombray, not available. So I'm here with LWC's Henry Riley
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to give me an overview of Sakhir Starmer's first year. So, Henry, how do you think it's all gone
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And what are MPs telling you about how they think it's all gone? It's nice to know I was first choice
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I think it's... Look, it'd be remiss of me to say there haven't been bumps in the roads
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I think he's had a rocky start. I think probably a more rockier start than he was expecting
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Yeah, I totally agree with you. I don't think he thought he'd be plain sailing, but I think he was so convinced, the Prime Minister
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that the chaos that was going on behind those doors in the Rose Garden with parties and whatnot
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Boris Johnson, Liz Truss. I think he thought the chaos in Downing Street was just so institution-like
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And a Tory problem as well. Right, just a Tory problem. That he could come in with a new team
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with Sue Gray, who, of course, we'll get on to, but sort of a completely new, efficient, professional team
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and sort it all out. Hasn't happened. On your second question about MPs
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I mean, it depends who you talk to, obviously. I had Neil Duncan-Jordan on my show the other day
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the Labour MP for Paul, and he was saying that he's not once had a conversation
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with Keir Starmer. That's crazy, isn't it? Yeah. How many times have you spoken to Keir Starmer? I mean, I've spoken to Keir Starmer a lot more than that
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Yeah, so I think you're totally right. This has been a much bumpier year for Sir Keir Starmer than he imagined
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than his top team imagined. And, of course, let's talk about the highlights and lowlights
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I do think that there's a lot that this government have done that is really good in their first year, and we should note
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the NHS plan, you know, more appointments, more digitalisation, more money to the NHS, everybody's going to welcome that
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The planning stuff, I think, is really quite good. Ripping up those planning rules to try and get more stuff built
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to get more stuff done. It's been really good to see their focus on growth because the economy has just been growing
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basically at a snail's pace for so many years. I think that was a good focus. Arguably, they've not done that well on it
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but there are some good things to point to that I think the government has started to do. I think Keir Starmer's argument soon will be
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I've started it, let me get on with the job. I can see him going into the next election, for example
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with that kind of slogan. And you saw a prime minister's questions, promise made, promise delivered
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I think we'll be hearing a lot more from the Prime Minister about that lately. But there's been a lot of lowlights
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And U-turn after U-turn after U-turn. And culminating in the welfare rebellion at the end of, you know, just a few days ago
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that really, I think, was the pinnacle. Has Keir Starmer lost control of his party
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Natasha, sorry to interrupt. I think we might have a cabinet reshuffle going on. Cabinet reshuffle going on
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That's Andrew Marr walking into Downing Street. We get LBC at the top table, clearly
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Andrew, how do you feel the first year of Keir Starmer's government's been? enormously well. Enormously well
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Very good. That wasn't planned either. That wasn't planned either. I didn't know that. Unbelievable
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I wonder who he's going to see. Do you think he's going to see the Prime Minister? Maybe. So it's fair to say, Henry, that this government, you know, has not been
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afraid to U-turn, basically. We obviously had the Islander Strangers comments, Keir Starmer rode back on those
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the grooming gang inquiry, Winterfuel probably arguably the biggest one that the government
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has rode back on. Of course, just a few days ago, the welfare bill
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How damaging do you think the public see these U-turns? Or do you think that this is something that they go
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well, actually, he's changed his mind because it was the right thing to do? I think the issue with these is, I mean, John Maynard Kane said
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when the facts change, I change my mind. And that's absolutely fine. And that's great. And on various things, you can argue that when the facts change
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Keir Starmer has changed his mind. It seems to be when negative media and public opinion changes
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that he changes his mind. So on the grooming gang's inquiry, what do you think that was
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Was it because Louise Casey had magically decided that we needed an inquiry
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or is it that he's heard the noise from Elon Musk going, come on? I think he's so procedural that he'd have seen Louise Casey write this down
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and he'd have gone, well, if she's recommending this after a tarso to the report, we have to answer the inquiry
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Right at the start of the year when this was all coming out, he said that it was along the lines of sort of pandering to the far right
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Yeah. Because, I mean, it's almost hard to think that it was this year when you had Elon Musk tweeting every other day about the prime minister
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Tommy Robinson tweeting about the issue. It really felt like the pressure was on
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Keir Starmer seemed to sort of put it to one side by getting Louise Casey to do that report
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Now he has to do an inquiry. So I think that's a U-turn. But on the welfare, I think the U-turn there
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I think is actually potentially really damaging. That's the worst. It's probably not the worst in the eyes of the public
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I think they'll think that winter fuel was worse because that was just a chaos from start to finish
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But welfare means more, I think, because you've got a prime minister with a huge majority
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that can't actually get things done. And, you know, it was a shambolically handled thing
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Obviously, it was a controversial issue. And he had no choice, right? The government knew they were going to lose that vote
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the 90 minutes beforehand. They basically had to change their minds. But actually, I think it just shows you
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that the change that Keir Starmer keeps saying that he wants to do, he is going to find that really hard
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I don't know if he's going to be able to ever come back to welfare ever again as an issue, or it might just be now completely dead in the water
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I think it risks becoming an issue like social care, where you just can't touch it. It's just too politically, you know, thorny of an issue
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And, you know, maybe I'll just leave it to the next Tory government to sort out at some point, because I don't know how you sort that out
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The Labour MPs, I just don't think, are going to take it. No, that's a really good point. And actually, I think he's come out of that badly
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But actually, I think the real lightning rods have been Liz Kendall and Rachel Reeves
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who've taken a lot of the flack on that. They have. And it been seen to be sort of Treasury brain Liz Kendall seen to be really cracking down almost obsessed with cracking down on getting eligibility down which I think is really important And the reason I said it the worst one you right in the eyes of the public winter fuel is far worse
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I think with this one, in Downing Street, they must just be ripping their hair out going, we can't pass this
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What can we pass? What are we going to pass when things get really difficult? And also the idea that it's only a couple of billion pounds for any of these as well
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you know welfare um winter fuel a couple of billion pounds each there was not a lot of money
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in it and the government took so so much flag for both of these things and actually just not much
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money being saved um and winter fuel i mean like i did always think that the government were probably
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going to have to do something on winter fuel i mean it's easy to say that in hindsight right but after runcord that was what basically made them listen after the local elections losing that
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crucial by-election that is what made them realize okay we are hearing it day in day out on the
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doorstep we've got to change tune i think they're going to regret the u-turn on winter fuel and let
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me tell you why we might disagree on this because i do think once you've u-turned on something like
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winter fuel the story was every time kia star was doing an interview a lot of pensioners are
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disappointed and by the way there are real consequences i understand that pensioner poverty
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is a real thing but i think people had come to terms with it by that point of course you're going
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to get kicking in the local elections but i think regardless of winter fuel there'd have been something else. So now he's fair weathered on that. That is what emboldened his backbenchers
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on welfare, I think. That's what gave him the scope to do a U-turn on grooming gangs
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I do just think... He looks a bit like a weather vane flapping in the wind a bit
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That was opening the door for him. I just think that was really dangerous because I do
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think the public has started to internalise that it's not great, it's not particularly popular, but at least it saves a lot of money
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We'll move on. And we'll move on. Yeah. And I think you're right, actually, in terms of the backbenchers. The question
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on everyone's lips at the moment is what is going to be the next thing that Keir Starmer is going to face pressure over
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And, you know, it might not be a U-turn, but he is going to face pressure over two-child benefit cap
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potentially the budget. What about the farming tax, which caused Rachel Reeves
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quite a lot of aggro last year? Will she be forced to think again? And, you know, I was speaking to one person that was in government
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previous government, and she said, basically, you know, we would never have even contemplated putting something with 100 MPs
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saying that they're not going to vote for it. We never even put that on the order paper at all
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And, you know, what's to stop MPs now from going, OK, I'm going to put a recent amendment on the budget
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I'm going to try and, you know, completely throw this off. And it just feels like there isn't that loyalty there
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that, you know, unity in the party there. And I just think that there is anything that they could decide to coalesce around
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You're already hearing MPs talking, oh, we'd rather have a wealth tax instead. We'd rather raise money from the rich
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And, you know, Chancellor Rachel Reeves, she's going to face a lot of pressure in the next coming months
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about how she's going to fill that black hole. MPs are now going to be feeding directly into that
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because, you know, they don't want another U-turn again. Yeah, and if non-DOMs is the next U-turn
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which you could potentially see them going to U-turn on that policy with sort of millionaires who are shunning the UK
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which is not a great spectacle anyway, but particularly for a Labour Party
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And reform, obviously, breathing down their neck on that one a bit, basically announcing their own policy. Britannia card
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Yeah, Britannia card, exactly. But, yeah, I do think that there is going to be many more U-turns to come
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And, look, some of them are needed, right? Sometimes you do, like you say, in politics, you do need to realise the facts change
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You need to have changed. With welfare, that was never going to pass, I don't think
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But I think there are some U-turns in life you do need to do. And actually, sometimes it can be a sign of strength
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But the media, many of the public see it as such a weakness. And the Tories just go absolutely after U-turn after U-turn, saying this is just an example that Keir Starmer doesn't stand for anything
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He doesn't have any principles. Who is he? And actually, one of the things I think he does need to be a lot better at in this next year is his narrative
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like what is this government for? What are you trying to achieve? What do you want to achieve in a year, two years, three years
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four years' time? And really stick to that message in every single speech and everything you do
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Going back to what you said earlier, I think a highlight of Keir Starmer's term
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was his response to the summer riots. Yes, I absolutely agree with you there
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He did really well there, I think. He did really well. I think the Prime Minister's often undone, aren't they, by sort of international events or events that aren't foreseen
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He's been very good on the world stage generally, actually, and I wanted to ask you about that
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Do you think he's been stronger abroad or domestically? Because I think I'd argue potentially abroad
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I think abroad. But it's weird, isn't it? Because Boris Johnson, I think towards the end of his premiership
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when he was going to Ukraine quite a lot and meeting Zelensky, I think he basically realised that at home
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no one really likes me. No, so I'm going to go abroad. Be this prime minister figure
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Kirsten's not quite at that stage yet. I know he's got very low popularity
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and approval ratings. But I think... But he's got this reputation of he's never here, Keir
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but obviously that does represent itself in showing trade deals, trading with India, trading with the US
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Donald Trump on the front foot on that, and actually I think that generally he seems quite strong on foreign policy
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I think he's quite statesman-like. I think he's quite cool in a crisis, and I think people do like to see that
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When you're in a stage of foreign policy that we're in, where we're in such an unstable world
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I think people like to see that sort of statesman-like from the Prime Minister. So I think we can count that as a definite win
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Definitely. And of course, you were in the Oval Office, in the White House
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when Keir Starmer had that visit. And I mean, it'd be interesting to know
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what it was like for you in the room. But back home, I remember, we were expecting the worst, obviously
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I was too. I was so pessimistic. I thought it was going to go all wrong. Chagos is going to come up
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There's going to be some sort of problem. He's going to say the wrong thing. He's going to talk about free speech. There's going to be something that's going to undo it
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And I thought, he'll probably look back at that moment and go, that was the greatest moment of peril this year
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Yeah, definitely. And credit to him. I think he prepared for it. I think his team laid the groundwork really well
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I think the letter from the king in his pocket, absolute icing on the cake
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It was really well done Did you hear that he apparently had it the night before He did have it the night before He had it on the plane He didn tell any of us He had it all planned out He didn tell anyone And apparently it told Donald Trump I read
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that I'm going to give you this letter. Apparently, Donald Trump has said, do it in front of the cameras tomorrow
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Really? Well, that's true. You know what? It worked well. So I think foreign policy stage, but back home, I think domestically
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I mean, we hear from LBC callers day in, day out, how unhappy they are with the Prime Minister's, you know
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first term in office, first year in office. They're not happy, are they
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and we only have to look to that LBC polling that we've done. People trust Nigel Farage more than they trust Rachel Reeves to be Chancellor
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He's obviously not doing well in the polls. Reform of absolutely soaring. Domestically, there's a lot of problems
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and it still feels to me like they're just not being fixed and people are still getting a bit frustrated
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because lots of the problems they had under the Tories still existing. What do you say to that
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And I think you've got the 10-year plan for the NHS, and that's great, and everyone thinks you should plan for the long term of the NHS
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The thing that would worry me if I was in Downing Street would be people want to see fixes instantly
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And you've spent the whole of the last, well, 14 years, if you're Labour, but if you've kissed Starmond, the last few years, certainly
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saying how we are going to fix the foundations. But people need to see that tangibly
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And that's why I think, actually, if you've got to focus on one issue, small boats are incredibly difficult
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Yeah, I can understand why he's not focused on it. Richie's not tried
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If you can get that waiting list down and he can point to that and go, look, we've made progress, let us save the NHS
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I think that's probably his best shot of getting a real sort of positive message in the next year
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And MPs have been saying to me when they're looking back at the first year that things are a lot harder than they thought they were going to be in government
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And I think that is very much true from everybody I've spoken to across Downing Street, Labour MPs
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They all keep coming back to that same point. Governing is really tough. The civil service
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You remember that row that they had about the civil service where Keir Starmer said it was like the tepid water of managed decline
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And that, you know, really infuriated a lot of people. but equally I think there is genuine frustration
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about the civil service and how they are delivering or not delivering and not doing it quick enough for the public
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Do you think he wrote that? Because with the Island of Strangers speech
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we now learn that he sort of looked at it and didn't really scrutinise it
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You wonder with some of the other sort of strong language he's put on Tepid Bath of Managed Decline
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does he still agree with it? I think he sort of wrote back a little bit from it, didn't he
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But he never sort of completely disowned it. I mean, he said it, those were his words, and he has to own it
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What's he like when you're... because it's interesting from your point of view, what's he like when you're with him on the play
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Because you've done various visits with him. Does he look visibly, like, more stressed with the press
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Or maybe just a bit angsty or irritable? No, you know what
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I think, like everybody, he has ups and downs, and some days he is a little bit irritable with us
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Some days he's beaming away and quite happy. At the NATO summit, which I was at a couple of weeks ago
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he was pretty upbeat and pretty happy and pretty happy to see us and was quite chipper
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Sometimes when he comes onto the back of the plane, Apparently he doesn't really like doing those plane huddles
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where he talks to us with journalists on the plane. He finds them very stressful. And we all find them quite stressful too, actually
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because you can barely hear them. You're crowded. You're on a plane. It's very uncomfortable
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But I think the Prime Minister is probably more at home on the world stage than he is on the domestic stage
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You don't see him really out and about doing quite as many meet and greets like here in the UK as much
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Obviously, he goes to a lot of events, does a lot of speeches, but you're not seeing him quite engage with the public
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in maybe the sort of ways that he was doing during the election, when he was sort of appearing at those rallies day in, day out
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But, yeah, I think looking back and comparing, talking to MPs, I think what they will say is governing is really hard
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There's been a lot of bumps in the road. It's been very, very tricky, but they're quite hopeful
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that they can turn the page on this last year and go, look, we've learnt a lot, there's lessons learnt
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Every new government is going to have their teething problems. But actually, looking forward
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do you think that he's built a solid enough foundation with what he's got in his first year
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so that looking forward to the next, you know, one year, two year, three years until the next election
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that he can keep this show on the road. Well, I think if you look at the MPs
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so we were talking about that MP earlier on who hasn't spoken to Keir Starmer, there seems to be this massive disconnect
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between the MPs and Number 10. Yes. You know, the parliamentary operation, the governmental operation that's going on here
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Yeah. If I was him, though, I don't think it's irretrievable. Like, I think you've got a few characters
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Brian Leishman's one, Neil Duncan Jordan, who've been out in the media, Kat Eccles, who've been out in the media, very critical of the Prime Minister
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I don't think it's sort of... These are not Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell-style rebels
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who it's irreconcilable with. I do think if he properly focuses and the team properly try and win them over
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there is space for all of them. You know, the ship is big enough for all of them
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And that's the thing, isn't it? With such a big majority, the Prime Minister was always going to find it difficult
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to unite his party. And something that people have been saying to me this week on the back of the Welfare Rebellion
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they don't feel united. They don't feel like they're part of a party. And actually, lots of these MPs obviously came from all different walks of life
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They've come from business. They've come from other jobs. They're not Labour loyalists to the core
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So when we saw that rebellion of 49 of Keir Starmer's own Labour MPs
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rebelling against him earlier this week, I think actually that really just goes to show that a lot of them
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are really independent-minded and he needs to do more to unite his party
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And actually, before the election, they were united around the fact they thought they were going to win, but really not without a proper plan to get there
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So maybe now he's going to be looking back and going, should I have been a bit more specific in my manifesto
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with some of the things I really wanted to do, or would he have not won the election? I think that's a really good point, because you're right
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He hasn't got a mandate to do, for instance, winter fuel payment cut, U-turn
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Didn't really have a mandate to do the changes to the welfare system. No, not properly. He said he wanted to reform it
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That's basically all he said. And when you're vague, the problem is
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those Labour MPs have got constituents writing to them on a daily basis. I totally understand from their point of view
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they don't want the agro of losing people's votes. And they also don want to make people lives worse Let be clear But I do think Keir Starmer is such a big majority The assumption was I mean that how Parliament works You could just get in railroad a load of this stuff through like nationalisation get it in I think that been one positive thing
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nationalisation. But just get it through, fix stuff quickly. And it's not working like
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that. Government just doesn't work like that. It doesn't work that quickly. And you can't
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just come in and no matter, you know, I think arguably Keir Starmer has lost his ability
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with this welfare vote to do the big change that he promised. So he said he was going
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to come in and do all this stuff. He said he was going to change the country. But actually
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I don't know whether he is going to be able to do so purely because the parliamentary party is so
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divided. And there's so many different groups within that. And a lot of them are unhappy. A
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lot of them feel they want more contact with Downing Street, more discussion with the Prime
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Minister. And a lot of them a little bit feeling not the love that they should from Downing Street
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And that's definitely one lesson that I think people in the building behind us will be learning over the last year. How long till there's a reshuffle? I think that's the big question now
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hasn't it? He's got to at some point have a reshuffle. But MPs I was speaking to
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this week were saying, well, actually, it does risk creating more enemies than basically shoring up your support
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But I do think the Prime Minister needs to take back his authority after this welfare rebellion. He needs to
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stamp it back on a bit, especially after... We haven't even discussed the Chancellor and
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the crying in the House of Commons. I mean, that really just shows
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the pressure of being at the very heart of Keir Starmer's government. And actually
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it's not a fantastic look for the Prime Minister, is it, to have your Chancellor acting like this
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whether it was a personal matter or something else, she is clearly really, really feeling the heat
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And, you know, he said that she will be the Prime Minister... Sorry, the Chancellor going into the next election
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I just don't know if I believe that. I don't know how long she can continue to stay imposed for
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I think for now, she's definitely a key part of the Keir Starmer project, but I don't know if she will be forever
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It's also a real problem, isn't it, guaranteeing these jobs? Like, it's a bit of mischief-making from the lobby
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people like you and I, when these questions get asked. But, I mean, you can't guarantee that your Chancellor is going to be here in four years' time
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No. I mean, I think Rachel Reeves is probably highly unlikely to be involved in some sort of full-blown scandal
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But you just don't know what's going to happen. Look at Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak. They famously fell out right at the end
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Boris Johnson lost Sajid Javid as his Chancellor. I mean, this stuff changes so quickly
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Kwasi Kwarting and Liz Truss were sort of joined at the hip and shamed out for having to fire him
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So this idea that you can guarantee jobs for the likes of Rachel Reeves for the duration of this Parliament
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A, it means all of your other colleagues are like, well, if Yvette Cooper and David Lammy are listening
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they're going, well, have I got jobs for the rest of the parliament? It was a mistake to say that from the start, wasn't it
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Just keep saying the line. We can't guarantee anything. No one's been blaming for that
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I just wanted to go back to what we were talking about earlier with how we feel the public are looking at Keir Starmer's first year
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Because LBC did some research and we've got a word cloud. What do you think is the most common word that people used
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about Keir Starmer's first year in government? So I actually don't know what this is
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You haven't seen it, so this is actual... I'm not even setting this question up. See, I don't want to be harsh, but would it be something like..
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It's a bad word. It's a negative word. Is it boring? It's not boring
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Is it... It's a word, negative word. It's not great. It's pretty bad
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D. Dull? Disaster. Oh, that's worse. So that is the most word that most people use
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to describe Keir Starman's first year in government, according to some research that we did with More in Common. So that's not good
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And it's fair to say the public are really unhappy. That's exactly what we've seen Reform Surge
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Nigel Farage's party doing so well. But yes, just look at this word cloud. Good was, to be fair, the second most well used
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So, to be fair. But also bad, terrible, poor, rubbish, disappointing, shambles, useless, awful
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So, not good. Not good. It's not the words you'd pick, no
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I just don't know. I hear it from callers. You said earlier
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Exactly. So, the RLBC callers, when they call in, do you think they're willing to give Keir Starmer's government more time
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I think they're split into three. I think there are genuinely a third in terms of Labour voters
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This is loosely what I hear. I think a third voted for Keir Starmer. They love Keir Starmer
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They think he's going to do great, and they're willing to give him a bit more time. You've got a third who have just totally switched off now
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and you hear them calling LBC saying, I voted for Keir Starmer, things haven't got better
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sick of establishment politics, going to vote for Nigel Farage. And then I think the crucial third
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is people who have probably got another couple of years to give him a bit of slack
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Just see how it goes as well. They haven't made up their mind. Yeah. And if he fixes the NHS, you know
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or certainly gets the weight on this down, manages to reduce boat crossings, things that affect people's daily lives
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Putting more money in people's pockets as well. And the government has started talking about that a lot
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over the past six months, about actually making people economically better off. And, you know, people at the heart of Number 10
21:58
are basically saying, if you can't prove that people are feeling better off after interest rate rises and inflation crisis
22:05
people aren't going to vote for us again. And I think that's definitely going to be a key concern
22:09
But like I say, we hear it all day in, day out. And I'm sure that most negative people who are calling up LWC
22:14
are probably going to call up to have a rant about the Prime Minister. You don't get as many people calling in to say
22:18
I love Keir Starmer and what he's doing to you. You do get a lot of people who defend him, but you're right
22:22
Certainly the people who are angriest are going to be the ones to pick up the phone. I do think, though, there are people who have made up their mind on Keir Starmer
22:30
and that's fine but I don't think it's a done deal at all I mean I hear people now saying he's going to
22:35
lose the next election he's going to lose all of these MPs I think he will lose quite a lot of MPs
22:39
but it's really not done deal I do think he's got so much time he's got four more years
22:43
to turn it around to get waiting lists down to get the boats down
22:47
to get more money in people's pockets as you were saying I mean he's all to play for
22:51
thank you so much Henry for joining me really appreciated our chat sorry you couldn't have Lewis
22:55
sorry you couldn't have Lewis or Aggie but you know what I think you did a fine job anyway thank you