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Israel-Iran and Donald Trump: LBC caller impresses James O'Brien with her take
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Jun 22, 2025
James O’Brien listeners are impressed by caller Hafsah’s analysis of the Israel-Iran developments. It comes after Trump gives a two-week window for peace talks as Iran and Israel launch further strikes. Reciting words from the President from the White House briefing room, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said: “Based on the fact that there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go in the next two weeks.” Listen to the full show on the all-new LBC App: https://app.af.lbc.co.uk/btnc/thenewlbcapp #jamesobrien #donaldtrump #israel #iran #trump #uspolitics #news #politics #LBC LBC is the home of live debate around news and current affairs in the UK. Join in the conversation and listen at https://www.lbc.co.uk/ Sign up to LBC’s weekly newsletter here: https://l-bc.co/signup
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0:00
Basically, I think we're in a push-pull of various factors for the Trump administration
0:06
mainly the two main voices in the administration, General Carrilla, who is very pro-Israel and pushing for action against Iran
0:14
and the more diplomatically-minded Steve Wyckoff, who's had Trump's ear for the majority of the last five to six months
0:21
and is seeking maybe a more diplomatic negotiation. My personal view is that ultimately the driving force that will force Trump
0:29
not what foresaw otherwise is a relative term, but that will see Trump enter the war
0:34
is the fact, the bigger question of how do you put Israel back in the box? They've called for regime change
0:39
They cannot do it alone. They cannot sustain this war path on their own
0:43
for the next even two, three weeks with the number of interceptors required
0:47
the cost of the war daily, et cetera. They cannot do it without the US
0:51
So any ceasefire in their eyes that keeps the Islamic Republic in the state
0:57
you know, with the leadership that it has is effective defeat. So how do you square that circle? And the U.S.-Israel relationship is such
1:04
that the Americans would not have Israel defeated in the region. And bear in mind that over the last
1:11
21 months, outside of just the Rezbe and the occupied Palestinian territories in the West Bank
1:16
we've seen aggression in Lebanon, which has imposed a seafire that allows Israel to hit
1:21
Lebanon periodically. We have incursions into Syria that are entrenching. This is a regional
1:27
expansion that is broadly supported by the israeli public even if they're against the war in reza
1:32
and at the same time broadly desired by the majority of the security operators and political
1:37
elite in israel that have wanted this war so there is a a growing consensus that this is the war that they need and Iran is on an existential self narrative
1:48
So how do we... So that, I mean, crystallizes potential domestic support
1:53
for this to continue. How do you explain the two-week pause then
1:58
Because Trump's getting it from all angles, you know. He's got people like Bannon
2:02
And Wyckoff, I don't think, is going to be involved in the talks, is he, this week? So that possibly speaks to your..
2:07
I'm setting you up in opposition to John in Paris, who was equally well-informed and persuaded to the opposite conclusion
2:15
The Wyckoff absence from the talks probably supports your position. So where does the two-week pause fit into this
2:21
that things will escalate sufficiently so that Trump can join in and try his best to make it look like Iran's fault
2:27
that Iran forced his hand, that he has no choice but to do this, to stand by an ally
2:32
I think the two-week pause is initiated on the one hand to buy Trump kind
2:36
A friend in the DOD yesterday referred to it as Trump's inshallah, which is a bit of a reference Middle East joke
2:44
But ultimately, I think it's also the case of seeing over the next two weeks is Israel
2:51
How much does Israel really require the Americans in the defensive capacity
2:56
And how can it withstand or sustain current war footing? because the bigger fear with this playing out is ultimately if the U.S. enters this war offensively
3:05
the Iranians have been unequivocal that they must respond. Where are they most likely to respond
3:11
It's going to be against U.S. military assets in the region, primarily Iraq
3:16
Now, we have the largest deployment since the Gaza war began under Biden of U.S. troops to the region, mainly in Jordan
3:22
We have aircraft carriers in the region but we have set up military bases across the Gulf and Iraq The Iranians are not going to hit I don believe the Gulf countries because they are both allied
3:33
and the rapprochement has become a diplomatic priority for the Iranians. But Iraq is the haven where all kinds of coxie and de facto conflicts can play out
3:44
So the fear, obviously, is that Trump becomes another Iraq war president
3:48
which is his entire narrative since he entered politics was to end these wars and end the division of American troops in countries like Iraq
3:57
So that is a different type of war scenario that has to be considered as well as he's making his decisions
4:02
But that's why I don't fully understand, and forgive me if I've missed it, but that's why I fully don't understand why you think he's going to jump that way
4:09
I think that's what's delaying the... Ultimately, I believe that the pressure on the need to defend Israel
4:17
and protect Israel will outweigh these kinds of narratives. The delay is coming from all these, in my opinion
4:24
the delay is coming from all these different considerations that are being thrown. So he wants to do it, but he doesn't think he can do it yet
4:30
And if the situation escalates, he thinks the voices opposing him will quieten
4:36
He can sell it to his MAGA base. I don't think he can. I'm going to disagree with you on this
4:41
Obviously, I hope I'm right and you're wrong. No, no, no, I agree. I agree
4:46
But I think ultimately we are looking at a, I mean, arguably Trump is in a catch 22 where he can't get any, you know, it doesn't work either way
4:54
It's not possible. He can't square that circle positively or negatively. And that's partly where the Israelis have put him
5:00
And they put him there on purpose, believing that when push comes to shove at the end of the line
5:05
the Americans will not allow the Iranians to quote unquote defeat the Israelis Well except for I know you say Catch 22 this Eric goes for win which is I guess the polar opposite of Catch 22 If the Iranians
5:17
claim climb down and sue for peace, Trump will say he won, that it was all the art of the deal
5:22
blah blah blah. If they don't then he can pressurise Israel to stop because they have achieved their
5:28
objectives on the nuclear capability front and then he can say that he has protected American
5:32
lives and put america first either way he'll claim a win but they those actually i hadn't read it to
5:37
the end those those twin scenarios both involve a de-escalation not an escalation so if a rain if
5:43
iran doesn't climb down and if a rail israel doesn't stop then eric's win-win thing falls
5:48
to pieces and your ysis replaces it and that he'll be left with little choice that's the bit i
5:53
don't get that's like if i was a i just i just say that we have seen no scenario in the last 21
5:58
months under any administration where Israel has been forced in any way to climb down or de-escalate
6:05
In fact... No, I know, but that's not the same as America joining in. That's not the same as America joining in
6:10
Well, I mean, it's a fine line. America joining in offensively. America is involved in this
6:16
war and has been involved regionally, but that's the fine line. The question is
6:20
what can America do offensively purely from the sky that doesn't then bring about a ground war
6:26
That is what I believe ultimately... That's the thing he can't sell to the base, is attacks upon bases in Iraq
6:32
And that's... So, well, anyway, I'll read you a message that's coming. Colin's been in touch
6:36
So the quality of your callers this morning is staggering. And another one says, holy bleep, a word I can't say on the radio
6:43
holy bleep, this woman is articulate. So thank you. That's why I..
6:48
And in fact, for Stee at least, I introduced him to the word perspicacious
6:53
but now you know why I used it
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