0:00
The optimistic bit of me, John, wants to believe that this is all systems go
0:03
The pessimist in me, or maybe the realist in me, is wondering whether we in the West
0:09
and possibly even Donald Trump, are dancing the dance, and Putin's sitting there just watching us all expend energy
0:15
So I think that Putin's got a victory, irrespective of what happens
0:19
Because of the Alaska meeting. Because it's happening. Because he is being feted on the world stage
0:25
You know, forget Russian isolation. Russia is going to be sitting at the top table with the President of the United States on American soil
0:34
And there's another little point that could be made there on Alaskan soil
0:38
the 50th state of the United States of America that was sold by the Tsarists from Russia
0:44
And Vladimir Putin can say, you see, borders do change. Now, obviously, it wasn't taken by war
0:51
But so Vladimir Putin, in that sense, has a victory already. but I don't know whether to feel optimistic or pessimistic
0:58
I've got no idea what's going to happen. I think that any one of a hundred different scenarios could unfold
1:03
that Donald Trump gives absolutely everything to Vladimir Putin and Putin walks back and Zelensky is completely marginalised
1:10
or Trump gets furious that Putin isn't serious and slaps massive sanctions on Russia
1:15
Which he intimated might be the case. Well, he's intimated everything and you don't know where you are
1:20
And, you know, and the preparation for this. Look, normally you get a summit that takes place between two world leaders
1:27
And, you know, when I was BBC's North America editor, I went to Helsinki with Trump when he was meeting Putin
1:34
I went to Singapore when he was meeting Kim Jong-un. I went to Vietnam when he was meeting Kim Jong-un
1:39
And you expect there to have been a tonne of work that goes in so that when the summit actually takes place
1:46
all that happens is that the president opens the inside jacket of his pocket pulls out a fountain pen and signs on the dotted line it all done and dusted Nothing is done and dusted
1:58
And Donald Trump's special envoy, this guy called Steve Witkoff, who's been the person who's been
2:03
the sort of intermediary, he's a property guy. He knows nothing about international diplomacy
2:09
He turns up at the Kremlin. He turns up in Russia and I've heard this from a very single
2:14
Single-handedly. You'll have other people who do know about diplomacy around him, will he? No
2:18
Oh, God. No! Literally, Steve Witkoff has arrived in Moscow on a number of occasions now
2:24
with his girlfriend, much younger than him, no criticism there, without a translator, without a note-taker
2:32
And so, on one side of the Kremlin table, you have the Foreign Secretary
2:38
You know, the Russian Foreign Minister, Lavrov, Sergei Lavrov, who's been around for years and decades
2:43
Wouldn't mess with him, would you? Vladimir Putin. You wouldn't mess with him. Putin's chief of staff
2:47
These guys are steeped in this stuff. And there you've got a property guy who's taking no notes
2:52
and is using a Kremlin translator. So there's already been this story about
2:58
well, one of the things we discussed was a land swap. And you kind of, that sort of starts to ring alarm bells
3:03
And then the Kremlins say, no, we didn't, never agreed that. So you kind of think
3:07
what level of organisation is going into this meeting that's going to take place in Alaska tomorrow
3:14
Who is that? I've momentarily forgotten her name. The woman who said, I can see Russia from my window
3:19
What's her name? Oh, God. Sarah Palin. Sarah Palin. Sarah Palin. I wonder whether Trump, not Trump, Putin will say
3:27
I can see Alaska from mine, you know? Yeah, and look, this is... He got his eye on Alaska, do you
3:31
Well, I don't know. I mean, you know, look, we know the sort of things
3:35
that Donald Trump wants. One is a Nobel Peace Prize Two is to stop war Three is to resume trade And I think he looking at some kind of minerals deal with Russia And if the war stops then we could lift sanctions against Russia And
3:52
then you could do a favourable trade deal with us. I mean, Donald Trump will be eyeing that as well
3:58
And if you're Ukraine, or the Baltic states, or Poland, or indeed Europe generally, you look at
4:06
this and you think i hope this is going to be all right because we've got no indication of which way
4:13
this is going to go and you've got two capricious men who you don't know what's going to happen is
4:21
there still any do we ever get anywhere with the notion that putin has something on trump and that's
4:27
why he's always like a lapdog when he meets him you know i i i was at a party i'll just tell you
4:33
this for what it's worth. I was at a party and there was a very senior diplomat and wife who
4:40
are based in Moscow. And the wife said to me, do you think that Donald Trump is a Russian asset
4:46
And the idea that in diplomatic circles, it is still being spoken of as a real question
4:53
not a fun kind of throwaway, I've had a bottle of Beaujolais and I'm now, you know, just talking
4:57
rubbish, that someone is seriously positing the idea. I don't think he's that. I think that
5:04
I think the history of Donald Trump, consider when he grew up, he grew up in the post-Cold
5:09
you know, in the Cold War era of mutually assured destruction of nuclear weapons. And I think he
5:14
looks at Russia and thinks they have got 45% of the world's nuclear weapons. We have to take them
5:20
seriously because what the world needs to avoid above anything else is another nuclear confrontation
5:24
And that's sensible. Yeah, that is sensible. But he's also making Russia..
5:29
I mean, you know, look, Britain had nuclear weapons. It didn stop the Argentinians invading the Falkland Islands I mean you know there a limit to what the impact of having nuclear weapons will do And so I kind of think that I think that Trump pays
5:43
too much heed and gives Putin too much credence. And I think that, you know, look, it was an
5:50
unprovoked act of aggression against the sovereign nation that took place, you know
5:54
three and a bit years ago. And needs to be treated as such. And needs to be treated as such. And just before we go, a word on the meeting this morning between Keir Starmer and Rodemir
6:00
Zelensky and you know following hot on the heels of that um Zoom meeting teams meeting whatever it
6:05
was with the European leaders yesterday and J.D. Vance and Trump joined in at one point didn't they
6:09
what what's your sense of what that was about was that about a show that our ducks are in a row or
6:16
was it real I think it was two things I think one is it was to say steady guys look be careful what
6:21
you give uh Moscow when you have this summit we've got you know this is what Europe wants to see
6:28
happen um i also think it was a kind of please don't think you can just divide up the world
6:34
between yourselves sort of like kind of the leaders did in 1945 when america and britain
6:42
and the soviet union got together to carve up what they did with syria you know putin and trump
6:47
were very much at the heart of that carve-up when we're not carve-up but that acceptance that bashir
6:51
would stay. Yes. Bashar al-Assad would stay. So you've got to have kind of, so they'll
6:57
want to issue a warning, but I think that they also wanted to show
7:01
look, we are serious, we're in a different place to where we
7:05
were a few months ago, a year ago. Defense-wise. Defense-wise, and we can take up some of the slack
7:11
here, and it's very important that Ukraine is defended, and that's what Zaletsky
7:15
will want to hear. But everyone will sit there, watching what unfolds
7:20
in Alaska tomorrow with absolutely no bloody idea what on earth is going to happen next
7:26
Well, hopefully we'll talk then
