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Is Israel attempting ‘regime change’ in Iran? | LBC
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Jun 16, 2025
Scores of Israelis were injured in strikes overnight after Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei warned he would 'inflict heavy blows' as the threat of all-out war in the Middle East continues to grow. Israel's ambulance service reported 34 people were injured on Friday night in Tel Aviv, most with minor injuries. Police later reported one person died. An Iranian missile reportedly hit homes in the central Israeli city of Rishon Lezion, killing two people and injuring 19. The injuries include shrapnel damage, smoke inhalation and shock. This comes as Israel launched a "pre-emptive" attack on Iran on Friday morning. Listen to the full show on the all-new LBC App: https://app.af.lbc.co.uk/btnc/thenewlbcapp #lewisgoodall #iran #israel #mi6 #middleeast #iranisraelconflict #netanyahu #afghanistan #regimechange #politics #geopolitics #intelligence #LBC LBC is the home of live debate around news and current affairs in the UK. Join in the conversation and listen at https://www.lbc.co.uk/ Sign up to LBC’s weekly newsletter here: https://l-bc.co/signup
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0:00
Let's talk now for a sense of what might be going on in terms of the conversations internally in the British government to Sir Richard Dearlove, former head of the British Secret Intelligence Service, MI6, of course, role, informally known as C
0:11
Sir Richard, thanks so much for joining us this morning. That advice, just that breaking news there, that advice from the Foreign Office that we should avoid travel to Israel, does that give us the sense that the British government thinks this is not going to end any time soon
0:26
well no i don't think that's the implication i mean it's just sensible advice because clearly
0:33
the iranian attack on israel is pretty indiscriminate and they're hitting urban areas
0:40
rather than specific military targets so uh it's a common sense advice in the current climate
0:48
the british government of course is calling including on this show elsewhere this morning
0:51
for de-escalation. How likely is that, given that Israel has clearly decided in the Netanyahu
0:58
government that this is potentially a generational moment where it might achieve its aims of
1:02
defanging, at least for a while, the Iranian nuclear program? Yeah, I'm of the view that this is a crisis which has been a very long time coming
1:11
It's an opportunity for the West to remove the nuclear program in Iran. This has been a problem
1:19
which has been bubbling on for longer than 20 years. Back when I was still in office, what we were worrying about
1:27
we were worrying about the transfer of nuclear technology from Pakistan to Iran
1:32
We were worrying about Iran refining uranium to levels which would allow them to make fissile material for a nuclear weapon
1:45
So it's a crisis which was inevitable. It's reached its head and it's in the West's interest that Iran should be without a nuclear program, is what I would say
2:00
Do you think that it can, unlike its aims in Gaza, do you think it can achieve its military objectives of, at the very least, substantially delaying the Iranian path to a nuclear weapon
2:10
Well, I think it's already down that track a considerable distance, and it may be that it can completely destroy the program. That's more complicated because it's buried deep under mountains in caverns
2:25
I think the ultimate aim, as Netanyahu has suggested, actually is now to get rid of the regime
2:32
Probably the best outcome for the West would be an Iranian regime of a different character
2:40
which was prepared to give up its nuclear program. Do you think that that's a credible or even likely outcome, regime change
2:47
It's a possible outcome. It's a credible outcome. Whether it actually happens or not is hard to say
2:52
because the political opposition, organized political opposition in Iran has been pretty much rubbed out
3:00
So unless the people of Iran who hate this regime rise up on the streets It difficult to see how the regime disappears But the situation in Iran politically is fragile brittle
3:17
and this is a political vessel that could smash pretty easily given the extreme pressure they're now under
3:26
They have no air defence left. The Israelis have the run of the skies
3:30
and the question is how long this goes on for. Is there a risk that this could cement the regime in place
3:39
or further augment its desire to obtain a nuclear weapon? That's obviously a risk, but I think it's a small one
3:47
because the situation is so powerless militarily for Iran. They have little ability to respond
3:57
except by firing from this massive arsenal of ballistic missiles, which are aimed largely as far as one can tell at civilian targets in Israel
4:08
I think this will go on. I think I would predict an Israeli military victory eventually. What the
4:16
political aftermath would be is hard to predict. It sounds to me, Sir Richard, as if you're not a
4:22
million miles away from the position of the Israeli ambassador who's saying that Europe owes a huge thank you to Israel for doing this. Do you think there is a sense in which they are doing
4:30
something for the wider region here? Yes, I do. And I think we shouldn't beat about the bush
4:36
The disappearance of the regime in Iran would improve security in the Middle East internationally
4:46
It would certainly be in the interests of most European countries to see the Iranian regime
4:50
disappear. Do you understand why some people, cognizant of and remembering the experience that
4:58
we had with Iraq, and of course you were head of MI6 during that time, might be rather nervous
5:02
when we hear people like you or indeed others talk about the benefits of regime change
5:07
Yeah, I do. But on the other hand, now if you go to Iraq, it's a much better country than it was
5:12
under Saddam Hussein. After a huge amount of death in the interim? Absolutely, but a huge amount of
5:16
death whilst Saddam was in power. Are we to play God in that way? No, we're not playing God at all
5:23
I'm just a pressing opinion. It's the Israelis that are attacking the regime, not Europe
5:29
Do you think that we should support them if they request assistance from us
5:34
I think we should contribute to their defence. I do not think we need to support them in their
5:39
attack. The Chief Secretary to this morning and indeed other government ministers over the last
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48 hours, very reluctant to say, even when pressed, whether in principle Israel were to ask us for
5:49
assistance in their defence, reluctant to say that they would do so. You think that's a mistake
5:55
Yeah, we sit on the fence. It's too easy. It's too cautious. I think we need to be more clear
6:00
cut where we stand. The national interest in the UK is pretty clear as far as I'm concerned
6:05
How do you think I mean obviously President Trump has expressed in recent weeks a desire to get a deal with Iran Clearly that prospect is now remote How do you think he will handle Israel at this point
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And do you think he will be displeased with what's happened? No, he'll be pleased
6:23
I think that Trump gave the Iranians a 60-day deadline in the negotiations in Oman to give up their nuclear weapons
6:32
or their nuclear program, rather, and their nuclear capability. the iranians had every chance to do that they didn't do it okay uh the israelis i think took
6:43
everyone by surprise by the speed of their reaction once it was clear those negotiations
6:48
were going nowhere uh trump will i wouldn't say sit on the fence that's absolutely wrong because it's clear they're supporting israel
7:00
but i think the the nature of how that's expressed politically will be cautious and
7:05
that's what we're seeing at the moment. Trump has threatened Iran saying that if any American
7:09
assets are targeted then he will respond in a kind. Do you think it is likely that the US
7:15
is drawn in in some way? Will, is it likely that Iran might attack American interests in the region
7:22
It's quite possible that some of the remaining proxies might do that. For example, the Shia
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militia in Iraq might attack the U.S. base. I think if they do, the Israelis will be hoping
7:36
for American involvement because ultimately Americans have the kinetic capability to take out
7:41
the nuclear program in Iran completely. So watch this space. I think that the
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theocratic leadership in Iran at the moment has been pretty careful to act in a way which doesn't
7:55
risk America joining Israel directly. But it's fragile. We're teetering on the brink of that
8:04
happening. It depends what happens to American targets which are close to Iran
8:08
How big a risk potentially could this be to UK security? I'm thinking in particular, could we potentially be at greater risk of terrorist attacks or terrorist threats as a
8:17
result of this at home? Yes, of course we are. And I think there is the possibility of
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you know, radicalised individuals. I think the bigger risk immediately is lone wolf incidents
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which can be pretty awful. And that was a situation I think existed already in relation to Gaza
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Bigger terrorist conspiracy. I think we are relatively well-equipped and well-placed to stop those
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They take time to plan. They take time to put together the intelligence opportunities
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to penetrate them are easier, but catching lone wolves, sitting alone, who suddenly want to go out on their own and do something dreadful
9:06
that's much more difficult. Israel's capability, he's obviously fighting wars on many fronts right now
9:14
Does Israel have the capability to sustain itself in this way over the short to medium term It seems to be able to do so This is a demonstration of raw power It taken down Hezbollah
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It's destroyed without making it very public. The military capability of Syria, the Syrian
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Armed Forces, Syrian Air Force, have all been taken to pieces since the change of regime
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um they're very close i think to rubbing out hamas militarily and now we have seen this
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extraordinary operation in iran uh yeah i mean it it is a remarkable demonstration
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of military power and brilliant intelligence operations do you understand why perhaps many
10:01
people listening and i can see many people messaging in on exactly this theme are so wary
10:06
of further Israeli conflict or what they perceive to be conflict that Israel is starting
10:12
and indeed are sceptical of further Western claims about the potential weapons abilities
10:18
of Middle Eastern countries? Well, if they are questioning this in relation to Iran
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that's frankly completely wrong. It's clear where Iran was, what Iran was doing
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The evidence is there to see this is a 20-year problem with deep roots
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um i mean could there not have been a diplomatic solution uh well we've been trying to find a
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diplomatic solution for more than 25 years but netanyahu doesn't want one does he i mean that's
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very no but the iranians don't want one either they could have settled at any time i mean the
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jcpoa was an agreement which allowed iran to think that it had dealt with the problem and
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let them off the hook they created the access of resistance they completely destabilized the
11:02
over the Middle East in the context of the protection that the JCPOA provided
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So this is the sort of follow-on situation. Do you think, and obviously it's a very unpredictable situation, just finally
11:15
very unpredictable situation, but do you think that this conflict is likely to still
11:20
in some form, be ongoing, let's say in a week's time, a month's time? Or do you think this was a long-haul conflict
11:27
The answer is I don't know, but I think it's going to go on for weeks, probably
11:30
and the Iranians are in an extremely vulnerable position. I think the big question is, will the Iranian regime survive this onslaught
11:43
The opposition to it in Iran, unorganized, unable to express itself, is massive
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40-plus percent inflation, 24 percent interest rate. The Iranian population is suffering dreadfully under this regime
11:59
which has a highly privileged elite which has looked after itself and neglected the interests of its population
12:06
Let's be blunt, let's be clear about this. Sir Richard Dearlove there
12:12
former head of the British Intelligence Service MI6. Your thoughts on what you've just heard
12:17
Does this make you nervous when you hear people like Richard Dearlove talk about the benefits of regime change
12:23
Of course, we have seen this story play out before
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