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Donald Trump announces 'full and immediate' India-Pakistan ceasefire | LBC analysis
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May 11, 2025
As Donald Trump announces that India and Pakistan have agreed to a 'full and immediate' ceasefire, Ali Miraj looks back at the history of the conflict between the nuclear-armed neighbours. Violent clashes between the two countries were sparked after gunmen killed 26 people, mostly Hindu tourists, in Indian-controlled Kashmir last month. Kashmir has been a contested territory between Pakistan and India since 1947 and the two countries each run part of the region but claim ownership of it all. Announcing the ceasefire in a post shared to X, President Trump congratulated both countries for using "common sense" and "great intelligence". Listen to the full show on Global Player: https://app.af.globalplayer.com/Br0x/LBCYouTubeListenLive #alimiraj #kashmir #india #pakistan #indianews #pakistannews #modi #narendramodi #trump #donaldtrump #trumpnews #LBC LBC is the home of live debate around news and current affairs in the UK. Join in the conversation and listen at https://www.lbc.co.uk/ Sign up to LBC’s weekly newsletter here: https://l-bc.co/signup
View Video Transcript
0:00
Let's just start from the beginning here. This is not a new phenomenon. Tension over
0:06
Kashmir between India and Pakistan is not a new phenomenon. This has been happening
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from the very, practically even the very start when they actually obtained independence
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from the British Raj in 1947. You remember that, or some of you will remember when it happened
0:25
1947 when India and Pakistan obtained independence. Now, if you go back to that
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it was administered by Lord Louis Mountbatten at the time, Prince Charles's uncle. And if you
0:39
remember correctly, it was completely and utterly mismanaged, right, completely mismanaged. And when
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they decided that they were going to scarper very, very quickly, the British, the whole entire
0:48
process was rushed, ill thought through. And one of the hangovers of it was the fact that the
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future of Kashmir was never dealt with properly. It was left as a princely state. There was a
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rajah there and it was never dealt with properly because Mountbatten had decided he wanted to
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scarper quickly. And in the middle of all this, Edwina Mountbatten was having an affair with
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Johal Nehru, who would become Indian prime minister. Not that that's relevant other than
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And Mr. Muhammad Ali Jinnah, who was leading the Pakistani Muslim League in the negotiations
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probably thought that he was fighting this battle to secure a homeland for himself and his people
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with one arm tied behind his back. But that's for another day. So it was a complete and utter
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mess left by the British. Where have we seen that before? But there we are. And straight away
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straight away, you had this Raja attack by some Muslim militants from the Pakistan side
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He asked for Indian help. A skirmish broke out. Then there was a full scale war in 1948
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There have been two further clashes over this as well since then in 1965 and then also towards the late 90s in Kargil
2:00
So this is not a new phenomenon at all. Now what you have is you got a situation where 25 Indians and one Nepalese person were killed by a supposed Pakistani militant group in Palagam just a few weeks ago and this is all now escalating and it escalating rather rapidly Now the reason why I think this matters and it merits a conversation is because you dealing with two nuclear armed states here You dealing with a fallout and a hangover
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of British colonial rule. So we have a stake in this, whether you like it or not
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And you have a situation where on both sides of this dividing line, the line of control
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You have an Indian supremacist in the form of Narendra Modi that just about got back into power last time
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His popularity is waning. He leaves the BJP, very closely linked to the RSS, which takes its inspiration, as I understand it, from Mussolini
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Indian listeners can put me right on that, but I think I've done my research, so I think I know what I'm talking about
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And he's an Indian Hindu nationalist supremacist. And on the other side, you've got Arsene Woneer, who's the head of the army. And the reason I
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mentioned him rather than Shabbar Sharif, who's the prime minister of Pakistan, is because
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prime ministers of Pakistan are basically just token appointments. I mean, the army really runs
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the country, always has done. And just remember this fact, not a single, not a single civilian
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government in Pakistan has actually completed a term under the same prime minister
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What does that tell you about the governance, political stability of Pakistan? Not a lot, I would say. Now, Asim Mounir, who's the head of the army, very religious, talks about Kashmir being part of Pakistan's jugular vein, wants to show that he's being absolutely robust on this particular matter
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So this, as it has always been, is used as a tool to bolster domestic support on either side between India and Pakistan when both sides are facing domestic issues
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You might not think Narendra Modi is facing many domestic issues, but I can tell you that with a resurgent opposition, he very much is
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He's still dealing with an autocratic, supposedly democratic state. it is a democracy of course but he's certainly an autocrat in the strongman image of Putin
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Netanyahu and you could even say President Xi and also now Donald Trump so you've got
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that particular issue so this is being used to placate domestic audiences as well you also have a broader context of this And the broader context comes from the fact and this is very important and it mentioned in the FT Weekend today
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that Chinese J-10 Dragons are being used by the Pakistan Air Force
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against a lot of Western military hardware that has been produced and sold to India
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from the likes of the US, France and Israel. So this has got a broader context as well, because I tell you what
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the Chinese are looking at this and seeing how effectively their weaponry is being deployed in
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the field. I mean, this is a test case, isn't it, for Taiwan? I mean, come on. I mean, what better
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test case do you want than actually seeing your aircraft? And by the way, the shares of that
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particular company have soared by 40 percent in the last few days, this Chinese company
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because you want to see how effective your weaponry is. So you've got that particular issue
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And you've also had another few developments in recent weeks. Well, not recent weeks, but going back a few years now with Narendra Modi trying to play hardball by removing the autonomous status of Jammu and Kashmir just a few years ago
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On the other side, you could say that there have been a number of skirmishes and attacks 2008, 2016, 2019 by Pakistani militants on India
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And when Pakistanis say that they have no connection to militants of any kind or historically of, you know, some say that they've never had connections to militants
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I don't know if they're linked to the resistance front or Lakshaya Taiba
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Some people would say that they absolutely are. But for Pakistani senior officials to say that they've never had linked to militants is the biggest load of absolute nonsense I've ever heard
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I mean, do you remember this interview that took place some years ago, which I found rather amusing
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We had a senior Pakistani minister on and has been asked by the interviewer, do you know where Osama bin Laden is
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This is before they found him and killed him. And he said, no
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Why do you think we know where Osama bin Laden is? Is he is he hiding in a cupboard
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Oh, is he under the table? Oh, we don't know where Osama is
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And then funnily enough, just a few weeks later, Osama bin Laden was killed in Abdubad in a military containment
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How embarrassing is that So Pakistanis have got form through the Inter Intelligence Agency backing militants of all kinds kinds Going back to the Afghan war the Majahadeen facing off against the Russians have had a history of doing this stuff
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And on the other side, you've got Indians who, frankly, I think, regard Pakistan as an irritant
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They've got bigger fish to fry. They want to be the regional hegemon. They want to be a counterweight. Well, they want to actually, you could say, supersede China in the region
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Chinese very close to Pakistan. But Indians also have got their own history of extraterritorial interventions
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And if you're wondering what I'm talking about, just go and ask the former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau
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who expelled six Indian diplomats, including the High Commissioner, last year. Why? Because they said, the Canadian government
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that they believe that the Indians, there was credible evidence to connect them to the killing of Hardeep Singh Najir
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who is a Sikh separatist calling for Khalistan. I've given you a lot of information there, quite a lot to unpick
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Bringing it back to domestic issues here, what do you make of all this? What could a war between India and Pakistan mean for the world
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Could lead to nuclear Armageddon. Not exactly something to think about while you're munching on your Saturday lunch
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but I'm afraid it just doesn't get any better in this world. Just before I go on to breaking news, Donald Trump has said India and Pakistan
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have agreed to a full and immediate ceasefire. Well, that's a relief
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In a post on social media platform, True Social, the US president has said after a long night of talks
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mediated by the United States, I'm pleased to announce that India and Pakistan
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have agreed to a full and immediate ceasefire in capitals there. Congratulations to both countries
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on using common sense and great intelligence. Thank you for your attention to this matter
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More breaking news here. Deputy Prime Minister of Pakistan and Foreign Minister of Pakistan
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Ishak Dar has posted on X, Pakistan and India have agreed to a ceasefire with immediate effect
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Pakistan has always strived for peace and security in the region without compromising on its sovereignty and its territorial integrity
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Marco Rubio, US Secretary of State, has also just posted saying, and I quote
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the governments of India and Pakistan have agreed to an immediate ceasefire and to start talks on a broad set of issues at a neutral site
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good news, thank heavens thank heavens for that
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