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The Global Impact Of War: What If China Invades Taiwan?
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Mar 31, 2025
China has really started to ramp up its rhetoric against Taiwan recently. Much of this has to do with China forcefully locking down Hong Kong and Taiwan's subsequent desire for more formal independence. The threat of invasion has become very serious, particularly after the somewhat unexpected invasion of Ukraine by Russia. And just like the invasion of Ukraine, the geopolitical and geographic ramifications of such an invasion would be felt very far and very wide. So what if China invades Taiwan?
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Taiwan may look, sound, and even feel like an independent country
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But if you were to ask China, it is not. In fact, China holds firm that Taiwan is a breakaway secessionist region
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that will eventually need to be reintegrated with the mainland. And unfortunately, given recent geopolitical events
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the prospect of China forcefully taking the island country back has become much more realistic
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So what if China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan? Hello and welcome to What If Geography, where we try and answer the great geographic what-if
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questions of the world. I'm your host, Jeff Gibson, and today we're talking about the global
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ramifications of an invasion of Taiwan by China. This is not a light subject, and I have no desire
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to see an invasion occur in my lifetime. However, given what's happening in Ukraine, what was once
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thought of as relatively unrealistic now seems far more real, and there will be a huge ripple
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effect from this particular invasion if it ever happens. But before we get into the details
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let's go back in time and talk about how we even got into this situation in the first place
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China has a very long and very complicated history, much in the same way that Europe has
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Its history is racked with multiple emperors, dynasties, wars, and invasions. China has been
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broken down, fractured, and reassembled more than most other modern countries today
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Regardless of what you think of the current Chinese regime, the fact that China exists
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today at all in some form is a testament to its collective will as a nation
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Now, the China and Taiwan we know today are derived from the Chinese Revolution and subsequent
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Chinese Civil War. This period lasted roughly from 1911 to 1949. Prior to 1911, China was still ruled by an emperor and dynasty, the Qing Dynasty to be exact
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At its height, the Qing dynasty controlled all of modern-day China, including Tibet and Xinjiang, most of Mongolia
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and large parts of modern-day Russia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, and of course, the island of Taiwan
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This period largely defines what mainland China considers to be theirs today
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But it's the civil war where we get to the heart of the current China-Taiwan issue
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You see, Taiwan is officially called the Republic of China. It was founded after the 1911 Chinese Revolution
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and almost immediately proceeded to mess everything up. In fact, the first iteration of the Republic of China
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was so inept at ruling a country that China descended into what is commonly referred to
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as the Warlord Era, during which China was really ruled by competing provincial factions And in order to regain control of the country the Republic of China turned to the Soviet Union for help after being ignored by every other Western power
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Fortunately for the Republic of China, they were able to make progress on regaining control of the country
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with the Soviet Union's help. Unfortunately for the Republic of China, during this same time
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the Soviet Union began supporting and uplifting what is today called the Chinese Communist Party
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The Chinese Communist Party and the ruling party of China called the Chinese Nationalist Party
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had a rather rough falling out in 1927. Due to the Communist Party's rise
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within the Chinese government and society at large, the leader of the Chinese Nationalist Party
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proceeded to purge the political group through hundreds of arrests and executions
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This really led to the fracturing of China as a whole and the beginnings of the Chinese Civil War
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The Chinese Civil War lasted in some form from about 1928 to 1949
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During this period, the Chinese Nationalist Party and the Chinese Communist Party fought against each other for
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total control of China. Even during the Sino-Japanese War from 1937 to 1945, the Chinese
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Nationalist Party continued to see the communists as the bigger threat, giving Japan almost unfettered
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access to Manchuria and beyond. This led to a period within China that was really quite grim
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By 1949, the Chinese Communist Party all but won the Chinese Civil War. But here's where it gets
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interesting. Unlike in most civil wars, the opposing government and military didn't actually
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go away. Instead, much of the remaining military and politicians of the Chinese Nationalist Party
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set sail for Taiwan, where it set up a military dictatorship until the mid-1980s
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Taiwan is a democratic country with a developed industry and a high-functioning society
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But at its core, Taiwan is still the Republic of China, and they lay claim to all of China
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just as the People's Republic of China lays claim to Taiwan. No formal peace agreement has ever been signed, and technically, the two are still at war with
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each other. It's actually been a very peaceful and quiet war up until kind of recently
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But before we get into the geographic ramifications of an invasion of Taiwan by China
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if you're enjoying this video, now would be a great time to subscribe. More fun geography videos are just one click away
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Today, China is an absolute Goliath in terms of global power. The country is home to over 1.4 billion people, which is nearly 18% of the world's entire population
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China is also considered to be the factory of the world, producing over 28% of the world's products
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All of this feeds into the second largest economy in the world with an annual GDP of about 14 trillion US dollars And of course China has a very large military with over 2 million active soldiers the second largest
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military budget in the world, just behind the United States, and of course, a huge nuclear
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arsenal. As you can imagine, in comparison to mainland China, Taiwan plays the role of David
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in this scenario. By comparison, Taiwan has a population of just over 23 million people
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and an annual GDP of 841 billion US dollars. Taiwan's military is also much smaller at about 300,000 active troops
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To top it all off, Taiwan is something of an outcast in terms of global politics
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Due to China's political power on the world stage, they've been able to remove Taiwan from the United Nations altogether
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and really isolate the country in terms of political support. The one advantage Taiwan has in all of this
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is that the United States has continued to support Taiwan through the decades
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Going so far as to ambiguously hint that the United States would defend the country if it were invaded
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that ambiguous support is largely why China hasn't invaded. Yet. If you've at all been paying attention to the news over the last six months or so
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you've probably noticed a significant amount of rhetoric ramping up from China. Much of this has come on the heels of renewed interest from Taiwan in declaring formal independence from China
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and becoming their own country. In fact, it was only recently that China's defense minister, General Wei Feng
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warned that China's army would, quote, resolutely crush any attempt to pursue Taiwanese independence
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And perhaps even closer to the heart of the issue is the United States' current role in Asian affairs
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China sees itself as the rightful power and influencer over the region, but is being contested by a loose coalition of countries that include the United States, Japan, South Korea, and others
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Where this is most acutely felt is in the Strait of Taiwan, where the US and UK navies have been intentional about sailing through
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Remember that mainland China sees Taiwan as their own, and as such, the Strait of Taiwan as their waters
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Thankfully, Taiwan is literally an island, which makes any formal invasion a really difficult proposition
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Getting a large enough military force onto the island would come at a heavy cost
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And make no mistake, China is very much paying attention to what's happening in Ukraine
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Russia is currently facing stiff resistance against a military force that, up until February, people believed would fall pretty quickly
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And not only that, but China is also likely thinking about the economic consequences of invading as well
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If China were to invade Taiwan tomorrow the most immediate repercussions outside of all the terrible atrocities that war itself brings is that the top two nuclear militaries in the world would come very close to all war with each other As mentioned earlier the United States
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has an ambiguous defense treaty with Taiwan. If the United States opts to defend Taiwan
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it would signal the biggest war since World War II. If the United States opts to not defend Taiwan
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it would essentially lose all political sway and power within the region, and potentially much
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farther than that. At the very least, Japan and South Korea would certainly be much more worried
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about their defenses in a situation where the US recedes from Asian territorial defense
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But beyond the war and superpowers, this invasion would impact almost every person on the planet
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regardless of how distant it might seem or feel. Just like the war in Ukraine has led to
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consequences tied directly to fuel and food prices around the globe, a Chinese-Taiwan conflict would
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do the same. The most immediate effect would likely be in the semiconductor and computer chip
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manufacturing supply chain. As of 2021, over half the world's semiconductors were made in Taiwan
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And if you thought the world faced a semiconductor shortage due to the COVID-19 pandemic
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then you haven't really seen anything yet. Smartphones, laptops, cars, washers, dryers
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refrigerators, toasters, coffee machines, and on and on and on will all be impacted. Heck
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your future close might be impacted based on the rate that companies are cramming computer chips
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into things. And of course, it remains to be seen how a world so dependent on Chinese manufacturing
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would respond to such an invasion. In some ways, sanctioning and secluding Russia for invading
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Ukraine was relatively easy, natural gas and energy aside. But China manufactures almost
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everything, if not in full, then at least in part. If similar sanctions were put on China
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costs would go up almost everywhere in every part of the economy. Just last week, the FBI and MI5
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of the United Kingdom, warned that if China was to invade Taiwan, it would, quote, represent one of
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the most horrific business disruptions the world has ever seen. And that is not an exaggeration
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A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be terrible. Outside of a few power-hungry Chinese politicians
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there would be no winners. Taiwan would be destroyed. China would be economically depressed
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for a long time. And the United States would either be at war or suffer a serious drop in
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Pacific Ocean power projection. So here's hoping that clearer minds prevail, see the potential
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fallout from such a conflict, and opt to take the more peaceful path. I hope you enjoyed today's
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episode on a potential China-Taiwan conflict. If you did, please subscribe to my channel
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and if you want to watch more of my What If Geography videos, you can do so here
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Thanks for watching. See you next time
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