Will Trump Redraw The World Map?
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Mar 31, 2025
Trump is coming back into office. Which means, he's going to have an impact on how the world looks over the next few years. If his first term taught us anything, it's that he isn't afraid to shake up global norms in order to push his own agenda. And given his transactional nature, he definitely has favorites all around the planet that he'll look to empower.
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Things are going to change
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Donald Trump is president of the United States once again, and this means that borders around the world
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could be dramatically impacted by the decisions he'll make. Based on what Trump has said in the past
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and what he says he's planning to do in the future, here's my best guess on how a second Trump presidency
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will impact global borders. This is gonna be a lot, so buckle up
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A second Trump presidency will have profound implications for Europe, particularly Eastern Europe
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a region already grappling with significant geopolitical tensions. The war in Ukraine will undoubtedly remain at the forefront of any U.S. policy decisions in the region
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and therefore it's likely to see the biggest impact. Trump has often claimed that he could bring the conflict to an end swiftly
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suggesting that such an outcome might require Ukraine to make substantial concessions
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This approach would include Ukraine ceding territory currently occupied by Russian forces
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and possibly abandoning aspirations to join NATO. Such a scenario would fundamentally reshape Ukraine's sovereignty and security
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leaving it vulnerable to further aggression. Additionally, U.S. support for Ukraine's military and economic resilience
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will probably waver under Trump, potentially weakening Ukraine's ability to resist Russian influence
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And while this all seems like bad news, it could also serve as a lightning rod moment for Europe at large
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which could step in and offer the security guarantees to Ukraine that the U.S. under Trump likely would not
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But the war in Ukraine isn't the only hotspot for Europe. Moldova, a small country bordering Ukraine with longstanding vulnerabilities to Russian influence
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will also likely be significantly impacted. The breakaway region of Transnistria, supported by Russian forces and acting as a de facto Russian enclave
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represents a persistent source of instability for the country. A Trump administration's focus on transactional diplomacy will deprioritize Moldova's integration into Western structures, leaving it more exposed to Russia
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Trump's lack of motivation to support Ukraine will likely embolden Russian efforts to destabilize Moldova and potentially turn the country into a puppet state to Moscow or outright invade it altogether
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Moving northward, the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, as well as Finland
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are also looking at a concerning arrangement under a second Trump presidency
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Despite all countries being part of NATO, Trump's previous critiques of NATO's funding and purpose
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have raised doubts about U.S. reliability as a security guarantor. For nations bordering Russia
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the erosion of U.S. commitment to NATO's Article 5 could have serious consequences
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These countries have invested heavily in their own defense, but also remain heavily reliant on NATO support to deter Russian aggression
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Finland, which recently joined NATO, might find its security calculus altered if Trump signals ambivalence towards its obligations in the alliance
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And a country such as Estonia could be swiftly invaded and taken over before NATO even arrives
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in which case Trump might not even see the point of sending troops
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to free the tiny Baltic country And of course there are implications for Belarus as well a close ally of Russia a second Trump term could embolden Russia to just absorb the country altogether
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While that might not seem like the best course of action for Russia, Lukashenko, the country's current dictator, has seen staunch resistance in recent years from Belarusians
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And Russia, sensing Trump might not care, may decide it's not worth risking Belarus becoming democratic and drifting towards European ideals
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A second Trump presidency will have an impact on Europe's borders. It's just a matter of how big an impact and where the impact will be most acutely felt
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Perhaps more than any time since the years directly after World War II
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a sitting U.S. president will have more power to shape what Europe looks like going forward
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But Trump's impact on global borders won't stop at Europe. So let's head to the Middle East next
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The Middle East, a region already marked by delicate alliances, unresolved conflicts, and geopolitical rivalries
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is poised to be shaken up by Trump. The U.S.'s approach to Israel and Palestine under Trump
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has historically been unambiguous, with a strong tilt towards Israel. But there has been recent acknowledgements by U.S. officials
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at establishing a two-state solution. That's not going to continue under Trump
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Trump's previous term saw the U.S. relocate its embassy to Jerusalem away from Tel Aviv
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effectively recognizing the city as Israel's capital, a symbolic move towards granting Israel complete authority over the region
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In his second term, Trump will likely offer unyielding military support for Israeli actions in Gaza or the West Bank
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and this could, in turn, lead to Palestine no longer existing in any form in the future
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Such actions would not only destabilize the region, but also strain relationships with key Arab countries
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that have normalized relations with Israel, such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and even Jordan
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Of course, the country at most to lose in the region during a second Trump presidency will be Iran
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His withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action during his first term signaled a dramatic shift in U.S.-Iran relations
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A second Trump administration could double down on maximum pressure campaigns, including threats of military action
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This approach could further isolate Iran and potentially force it into a situation
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where it does something drastic, like engage in a full-out war with Israel
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or attempts to take over Syria after it has freshly deposed its recent dictator
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Finally, Saudi Arabia, a close U.S. ally during Trump's first term, might see a continuation of robust support under a second term
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After all, the Trump Organization just recently announced that they will partner with
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and build two new skyscrapers in Saudi Arabia, one in Riyadh and the other in Jeddah
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Because of this and Trump's transactional nature, he's likely to pursue a friendly and supportive relationship with the country
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And this means that Trump will further prioritize arms deals and cooperation with Saudi Arabia
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which will have broad impacts on Yemen. With a Houthi-controlled Yemen that is known for firing at U.S. ships traversing the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea
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Saudi Arabia might find it's more lucrative for them to re-engage in that country's long-standing civil issues
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And that could have huge impacts on the future existence of Yemen
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Trump has clear favorites in the Middle East, namely Israel and Saudi Arabia
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And this, undoubtedly, means he'll want to have a hand in who ultimately has control of the region in the future
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But now let's head over to another global hotspot, East Asia. Trump does not like China, and this means Trump will have a big say in how much of an influence
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China ultimately has on its nearest neighbors. During his first term, he ignited a trade war
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with China which set the tone for a confrontation His second term will be an escalation of both economic and military actions against the country In particular the Taiwan Strait will be a flashpoint between the U and China In the past Trump has signaled overt support for Taiwan
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including arms sales and high-profile diplomatic gestures. A recent article out of the Global Taiwan Institute
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further suggests a strengthening of support under a second Trump presidency. This is especially interesting because
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should things heat up enough between the two countries, there are likely a couple different border-changing results here
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The first is that, sensing more military aid coming from the United States to Taiwan
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China decides to act against the island and potentially absorb it into its country
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likely after a long and bitter war. In this scenario, Taiwan would cease to exist in the way we know it today
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But the second result is quite different. With an increase in tensions between the U.S. and China
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Trump could decide to fully recognize Taiwan as an independent country and pivot away from China entirely
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In this way, Taiwan would become more relevant than ever and its borders would be even harder to diminish on the global stage
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Of course, though, Taiwan isn't the only flashpoint in the region between the U.S. and China
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The South China Sea dispute, centered on China's nine-dash line claim, will intensify U.S. involvement
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Trump's administration had already increased freedom of navigation operations in the region during his first term
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challenging China's expansive territorial claims. A second term will bring an even more aggressive stance
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further aligning with regional allies like the Philippines and Vietnam. While this might bolster confidence among U.S. allies in the region
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it could also provoke heightened Chinese militarization. In this scenario, the region's oceanic borders could shift dramatically
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either by getting China to fully recognize the other countries' territorial waters
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or with the other countries giving up their claims to China. Either way, the issue will come to a head soon
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North Korea, another critical player in East Asia, will also reemerge as a focal point
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Trump's previous engagements with Kim Jong-un, marked by high-profile summits and a mix of
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threats and overtures, failed to achieve denuclearization. A second term might see a
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return to such unorthodox diplomacy, though its effectiveness remains questionable. Without substantive agreements, North Korea could continue to expand its nuclear arsenal
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potentially destabilizing the Korean Peninsula further. Meanwhile, South Korea, a key U.S. ally
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might find itself caught between unpredictable U.S. policy shifts and an increasingly aggressive North Korea
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It's doubtful that any full-scale conflict or border changes will result out of this
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But Trump's actions or inactions in the region could have broader border implications in the future
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Trump's eyes will be laser-focused on China from day one, and this will likely bring about huge changes to the region
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But there's one final area that Trump will be even more focused on
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at least in his first year. Mexico, Central America, and Canada. Throughout his campaign
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Trump promised to fix immigration in the United States by not only hardening the border with Mexico
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but by changing everything all the way down to Colombia. Policies such as Remain in Mexico
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which require asylum seekers to stay in Mexico while their claims are processed will probably see a return
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further straining U.S.-Mexico relations and placing additional burdens on Mexican border towns
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This won't be an actual border change, but it will have the most profound impact for Americans
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than any of the actual border changes in the world because it will directly impact the freedom and movement of goods and people
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But this will have a domino effect all the way down. Trump's approach to immigration often emphasized deterrence
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through punitive measures, including threats to cut aid to countries like Guatemala, Honduras, and
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El Salvador, unless they curtailed northbound migration. A second Trump term will revive such policies enhancing the challenges faced by these same countries In a weird way this would actually increase migration as the lack of aid to these countries forces more people to seek money in the north
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This anti-immigration ripple effect could extend as far south as Panama and Colombia
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two countries that deal with the current Darien Gap migration pattern that sees migrants
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from all over the Caribbean and South America, primarily Venezuela, fly into Colombia
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to begin their trek north. Finally, Canada will also feel the heat from a second Trump presidency
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While the U.S.-Canada border probably won't change, Trump's past focus on renegotiating trade agreements
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such as the United States-Mexico-Canada agreement, will likely lead to tensions with Canada
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And this will see renewed pressure on Canada to align more closely with U.S. trade and immigration policies
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potentially straining what is traditionally a strong bilateral relationship. Of course, I also have to bring up the recent remarks by Trump
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where he's been calling Justin Trudeau, the prime minister of the independent country of Canada
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a governor, and Canada itself, a state. In some ways, it's easy to write this off
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as Trump is known for his verbal mishaps and exaggerations. But this is also something Canadians should be concerned about
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While I don't believe Canada will ever become a state within the United States, it does appear that Trump is looking at Canada
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as somewhat of an extension of the U.S. And if he feels like he has full control over the U.S., then he'll feel the same way about Canada
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Where that goes, I honestly can't say. Now, all this said, one border in North America that I don't foresee changing under a second Trump presidency is Greenland's
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During his first term, Trump overtly attempted to buy Greenland from Denmark
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But while Trump was confident he could negotiate a deal with Denmark, the end result was that Greenland is no closer to being part of the United States today than it was 20 years ago
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And given the staunch resistance to any such idea from both Greenlanders and Denmark itself
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I don't see Trump in his second term having any more luck. So I originally wrote and produced this video between December 23rd, 2024 and January 3rd
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2025, which means a lot has happened since then, mostly regarding Trump's recent comments around
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Greenland and Panama. So I figured I'd just add a bit more context here at the end
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Since the new year, Trump has really doubled down on Greenland specifically
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I guess he probably sees it as a failure on his part during his first term
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Regardless, he's said some pretty unhinged things, such as suggesting he'd use force to take Greenland and the Panama C
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And he sent his son Donald Trump Jr. to Greenland to do something
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I'm not really sure what. All that said, Trump has really ratcheted up his rhetoric around these places
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And that's worrying, not only for Greenlanders, but also European allies, specifically Denmark, who technically has sovereignty over Greenland, albeit without
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much direct control. And as for why the United States would even want to own Greenland
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Well, it usually comes down to resource extraction. But that's another topic for another video
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I still don't believe Greenland will become part of the United States
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but the conversations around it are certainly more intense now than they ever were during
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Trump's first term. So I guess I really don't know what the ultimate fate of the world's largest
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island will be. A second Trump presidency will bring changes. That much we can say for certain
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but the exact hows and where's of it all remain a mystery. Once again, don't forget to join
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enjoyed this episode, be sure to check out this much more fun episode on the weird US-Canada border
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Thanks for watching. See you next week
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