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Gulf Stream Collapse: Why Europe Could Freeze
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Mar 31, 2025
Europe has a problem. While the continent sits pretty far north, it actually has pretty mild temperatures overall. But that could change as the two things that keep Europe so pleasant could be collapsing: the Gulf Stream and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Both of these work in tandem to distribute warm water from the south to the northern region which then influences the temperatures of Europe. So what happens if the Gulf Stream and AMOC do collapse? And are we seeing it happen right now?
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Europe sits farther north than you probably think
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In fact, many of its major cities are farther north than their Canadian equivalents
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But you wouldn't know this because the weather in Europe is pretty mild, at least for now
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However, if scientists are right, the collapse of one delicate system in the Atlantic Ocean
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could result in Europe freezing for a very long time. And when that happens, it won't be pretty
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The Gulf Stream and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are two fundamental forces
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driving the climate and ecosystem dynamics of the North Atlantic, with far-reaching effects on global weather patterns, marine biodiversity, and regional climates
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particularly in Europe. And though they're often linked, they are different. The Gulf Stream is a powerful and swift Atlantic ocean current originating in the Gulf of Mexico
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moving up the eastern coast of the United States before curving towards Europe
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This warm water current transfers massive amounts of tropical heat northward, playing a significant role in moderating the climates of North America and Western Europe
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The Gulf Stream's warm waters deliver mild winter temperatures to much of northwestern Europe
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most notably the United Kingdom, Ireland, and parts of Scandinavia, which enjoy a much warmer climate than other regions at similar latitudes
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In contrast, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, as I'm going to call it because its full name is just a mouthful
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is a much larger system of ocean currents that includes both surface currents, like the Gulf Stream
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and deep water currents that circulate water vertically and horizontally throughout the entire depth of the Atlantic
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This process begins with warm, salty water traveling northward, primarily as part of the Gulf Stream
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In the North Atlantic, these waters cool and become denser, eventually sinking to great depths and creating a southward flow of cold, deep water
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This dense water then travels across the Atlantic and circulates into other ocean basins
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eventually resurfacing, warming, and completing a loop that spans the globe over a centuries-long timescale
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In this way, the AMOC acts as an ocean-wide conveyor belt, transporting heat, nutrients
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and gases like carbon dioxide across the Atlantic Ocean from north to south and back again
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These two geographic elements are similar, but they function differently. While the Gulf Stream is a fast-moving surface-level current confined mainly to the western Atlantic
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AMOC is a slower, planet-spanning circulation system connecting oceans and moving water vertically as well as horizontally
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Importantly, while the Gulf Stream significantly influences the weather, AMOC is key to regulating global climate patterns over the long term
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The influence of these oceanic phenomena is particularly noticeable in Europe. The Gulf Stream's warmth moderates winter temperatures
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creating a more temperate climate in Western Europe. This effect is especially pronounced in the British Isles where temperatures are noticeably warmer than those at similar latitudes in North America or Asia AMOC amplifies this effect as it transports additional heat to the North Atlantic region
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which disperses to Europe. Beyond regional climate moderation, the Gulf Stream and AMOC also drive patterns in precipitation
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which are crucial for agriculture, biodiversity, and the overall climate stability of Europe
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The moisture carried by these currents contributes to regular rainfall, supporting ecosystems and providing the moisture needed for europe's fertile agricultural lands
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globally amok plays a vital role in mitigating extreme temperature variations by redistributing
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heat and regulating the uptake and release of atmospheric carbon it acts as a balancing force
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against climate change however the stability of amok itself is sensitive to changes in global
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temperatures recent studies have indicated that warming arctic temperatures and increased fresh
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water from melting ice sheets might destabilize the Amok. This could result in colder, harsher
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winters in Europe and would disrupt global heat distribution, potentially triggering feedback loops
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that could exacerbate warming in the southern hemisphere. So to say that these two things
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collapsing would be bad would be an understatement. Unfortunately, that does appear to be the case
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Historically, changes in the Amok and Gulf Stream have been correlated with abrupt climate shifts
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During the last ice age, the Amok weakened significantly, likely due to massive freshwater influxes from melting glaciers in the northern hemisphere
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These shifts triggered sudden drops in temperatures across the North Atlantic, affecting regions in Europe which experienced colder and drier conditions
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Such events caused rapid cooling periods and disrupted ecosystems and weather systems on a large scale
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These historic collapses in ocean circulation systems are evidenced in ice core samples and marine sediments
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which provide clues about past ocean temperatures, salinity levels, and ice melt patterns
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Unlike in the past, where natural cycles drove changes in the Amok and Gulf Stream
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the current concern stems largely from the unprecedented rate of greenhouse gas emissions
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Carbon emissions from fossil fuels have raised global temperatures significantly over the last century
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leading to accelerated melting of the Greenland ice sheet and other Arctic ice sources
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This influx of freshwater dilutes the salty waters of the North Atlantic, weakening the sinking process that drives the AMOC
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When this happens, the entire circulation system slows, weakening the southward flow of colder waters and reducing the northward transport of warm waters
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This gradual weakening of the AMOC has already been observed over the last few decades
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with recent research suggesting that it is at its weakest point in over a thousand years
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The Gulf Stream could also be impacted by these changes. As the AMOC slows, the Gulf Stream's speed and heat transport capacity are affected
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This is especially concerning for Europe. A slowed Gulf Stream would mean colder winters and increased climate variability
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with potentially devastating consequences for European agriculture ecosystems and even energy demands The role of carbon emissions in this process cannot be overstated As atmospheric carbon
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dioxide levels increase, the resulting warming effect extends beyond land to the oceans
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which absorb about 90% of the heat from global warming. This heat disrupts ocean stratification
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contributing to a warmer surface layer that further hinders the AMOX function until it's gone
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and when it's gone, it's going to be gone for a long time. The last time the AMOC collapsed, it took about 1,000 years for it to recover
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so it certainly won't be a quick affair. All of this leaves us with one final question to answer
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What will happen if the AMOC and Gulf Stream do eventually collapse
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If the AMOC and Gulf Stream were to collapse, the most immediate changes would be to Europe
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The continent at large would face dramatic changes altering not only its climate
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but also its agriculture, infrastructure, ecosystems, and even societal structures. But let's break it down
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Without the warmth provided by the Gulf Stream, winter temperatures in Western Europe, primarily Ireland, the United Kingdom
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Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, and northern France and Germany, would begin to resemble those of Maine in the United States or Labrador in Canada
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which experience far colder winters today despite being at the same latitude
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Snowfall would become more frequent. Freezing temperatures would extend further into the spring and fall months
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and heating demands would rise sharply, placing strain on Europe's energy infrastructure
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People might adapt to living in colder temperatures, but the food supply would definitely suffer
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In such an event, agriculture in Europe would suffer considerably. Crops such as wheat, barley, and various fruits that have adapted to Europe's current climate
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would struggle in the colder conditions. A shortened growing season, coupled with potential for unseasonable frost and colder springs
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would threaten food security and drive up food prices. In regions like Spain, Italy, and southern France
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where Mediterranean agriculture relies on mild winters and predictable seasonal shifts, temperature shifts could destabilize crop yields for olives, citrus fruits, and vineyards
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impacting not only local economies, but also the global food and beverage supply chain
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But beyond the temperature drops, changes in precipitation patterns could worsen Europe's water supply
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The Amok and Gulf Stream indirectly support consistent rainfall patterns in Western Europe
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but without them, dry spells could lengthen, especially in Southern and Central Europe
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Countries like Spain, Italy, and Greece, already prone to seasonal droughts, would likely experience increased water scarcity
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This could make areas that rely on glacial meltwater and rainfall to replenish reservoirs and rivers
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more vulnerable to shortages, disrupting water availability for drinking, agriculture, and industry. Meanwhile, Europe's biodiversity would be deeply affected. The mild climate supports a
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variety of ecosystems, from Atlantic rainforests in the UK to rich marine life along Europe's
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Atlantic coastlines Colder waters could disrupt fish migration and spawning patterns impacting marine species that rely on warmer Gulf Stream currents for sustenance For Europe forests and wildlife the rapid onset
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of colder temperatures could lead to species decline as they struggle to adapt. Mediterranean
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species, for instance, may retreat or perish as conditions become less hospitable for temperature
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sensitive species, both in marine and terrestrial environments. But that's just Europe. Remember
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The AMOC affects the entire world by distributing heat globally. North America's east coast, for example, would likely see rising sea levels as the weakened Gulf Stream no longer pulls water away from the coast
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increasing the risk of severe coastal flooding and storm surges. This would threaten cities from Miami to New York, posing economic risks and potentially driving displacement as infrastructure and homes are affected
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The tropics would also feel the impact. The AMOC indirectly supports weather systems that maintain seasonal rains in regions dependent on monsoon patterns
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such as parts of South Asia and West Africa. A collapse could destabilize these patterns, leading to droughts in some areas and unseasonable rains in others
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This would threaten food security and water access for millions, and could exacerbate economic instability and migration pressures
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Globally, a collapsed AMOC would impact carbon sequestration processes. The AMOC helps transport carbon dioxide to deeper ocean layers
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keeping this greenhouse gas from accumulating in the atmosphere. A disruption could reduce the ocean's ability to absorb CO2
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accelerating the pace of global warming and intensifying climate change effects worldwide
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This would create a feedback loop. As global temperatures rise, Arctic ice melt accelerates
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which in turn could further destabilize the AMOC. But here's the problem engaging all of these scenarios
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The AMOC may have already collapsed, and we just don't know it yet
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A collapse is not a dramatic affair. We won't really feel the difference in one sudden swing
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Instead, it will be a gradual change over decades. What we do know is that the AMOC and Gulfstream have weakened in recent years
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That could indicate a full collapse is occurring, or that it will bounce back and everything will return to normal
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But as of now, we really have no way of knowing. There's only one part of our planet that's actively cooling today, and it's this area
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But this isn't a good thing. A colder northern Europe will have impacts on food, travel, and immigration
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All things that will affect every one of us to some degree. and like with most climate change occurring on our planet
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this one is definitely caused by our own rate of carbon emissions
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Speaking of Europe, did you know that you could purchase one of these really cool maps of the continent
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from my map store? Every map you buy helps support this channel
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This was a bit of a grim episode, but I kept seeing articles about this coming up
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over the past year and I figured I had to talk about it. If you enjoyed it
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or if you learned something today, please subscribe to my channel and of course, like the video
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And if you want to watch more videos, click here. Thanks for watching. See you all next week
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