0:00
The Labour Party think they've done brilliantly
0:03
I mean, who's right? Well, the honest truth is that none of the parties
0:07
have managed to fulfil their maximum ambitions. It's certainly clear, number one
0:15
that the nationalists are still struggling to recover their support from the fair drubbing
0:23
they received north of the border in last summer's UK general election
0:27
The polls suggest that their support is barely up on what it was last summer
0:33
And the result in Hamilton is entirely consistent with that. Remember, that 17 point drop that Crystal refers to is a 17 point drop since 2021 when the SNP got nearly half the vote in Scotland
0:46
But if you look at recent polls, they would have pointed to the SNP getting a result of around that kind
0:53
Equally, however, Labour's win, which was narrow and was actually achieved on a lower share of the vote
1:02
than reform got in the constituency in 2021 when they were clearly defeated
1:07
It's a couple of points down. Labour's performance is also consistent with the polls
1:13
polls which at the moment suggest that Labour's vote is down to about just a fifth of the vote in Scotland
1:20
And if you compare what they achieved in the by yesterday of 32 of the vote with what the party was getting locally in the Westminster election that is 50 you can see that Labour are a long way behind And yes Labour will undoubtedly get a bit of a morale from this But the truth is that yes and this is a seat that Labour would need to win
1:42
if Anas Abbas is going to be the next First Minister. But, but, but Labour would have to win this seat by a much bigger margin
1:50
if they were going to convince us that they were doing well enough
1:54
that they could actually displace the SNP as the largest party at Holyrood
2:00
In fact, if you project these numbers, you can suggest that Labour Party would actually end up with fewer seats than they did back in 2026
2:07
Now, as far as reform is concerned, I largely agree with Christopher. It is an unexpectedly good result for the party, given that they're running at the moment just under 20 percent or so in the Scotland-wide polls
2:20
I think certainly it looks to me that the attempt by Labour and the SNP jointly to attack some of Nigel Farage's social media adverts, particularly suggesting that Anasawa was trying to promote the interests of the South Asian community in Scotland, that didn't necessarily do the reform that much harm
2:42
And I think they made the classic mistake in politics of giving good publicity, at least from reform's point of view, to the campaign of your opponents
2:53
And that's often a mistake that parties make. But that said, you know, yes, sure, reform are probably still going to be dependent on getting seats primarily through the regional list element of the Scottish Parliament election
3:06
But that could still mean that they end up as the second largest party in Hollywood
3:11
There's nothing in Hamilton... Well, it's a very interesting picture, Sir John Curtis
