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In this cruise update: Are the dark clouds that have been looming over cruising starting to lift? I look at what has happened to make Cruise Line executives be more upbeat and optimistic, despite on-going massive losses, having to raise more money to keep them going and with many just cancelling cruising until June, including Carnival, Disney, Windstar and Norwegian Group, along with cancellations now starting for the Alaska season departing in Canada by lines like Princess, Holland America and Seabourn. I explore in this cruising update what latest cruise news, events and changes are happening to cause this, and what the cruise lines are planning for cruising and cruise resumption
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0:00
are the dark clouds that have been
0:01
looming over cruising starting
0:03
to lift i'm gary bembridge and i look at
0:05
a series of events
0:07
that has made cruise lines and
0:08
passengers suddenly
0:10
become much more optimistic i discuss
0:12
what you need to know
0:14
along with some really important watch
0:15
outs which could mean all of this
0:17
optimism
0:17
may be ill-placed and timed cruise line
0:21
executives
0:21
are much more upbeat and very optimistic
0:24
despite
0:25
ongoing massive losses having to raise
0:28
more money to keep them just going
0:30
and with many more just right now
0:32
cancelling cruising until june that
0:34
includes
0:34
carnival disney windstar and the
0:37
norwegian group
0:38
also there's been a whole lot of
0:40
cancellations now starting for the
0:41
alaska season
0:42
anything that departs from canada sir
0:44
lines like princess
0:46
holland america and seabourn this
0:49
is all because of the vaccine rollout
0:51
and its impact on cases
0:53
hospitalizations and importantly deaths
0:56
it's leading to a significant
0:58
shift in the sentiment and stance that
1:00
governments
1:01
and all their authorities are taking
1:03
towards cruising
1:05
they are finally starting to commit to
1:07
specifics around cruising
1:10
first off in the united states after
1:11
waiting for four months
1:13
the lions are getting the much delayed
1:16
technical specifications
1:18
for running test cruises that are
1:19
required in their framework for
1:21
conditional selling and they're getting
1:23
those
1:23
pretty soon royal caribbean
1:25
international ceo
1:26
michael bailey he said on a results call
1:28
which happened just a couple of days ago
1:30
before recording this and i'm going to
1:31
quote him we're literally
1:34
expecting the technical specifications
1:37
any day soon it's an intergovernmental
1:40
process between several agencies
1:42
within the government that are reviewing
1:44
the technical specifications and he went
1:45
on to say
1:46
once that's done they expect to get them
1:48
so he went to say
1:50
and i'm going to quote this again as
1:52
they've explained to us
1:53
on many occasions this really is about
1:56
what's happening
1:57
with the virus they've assured us on
1:59
several occasions that when these
2:01
indicators
2:02
really start to move in a very positive
2:05
way they'll start
2:06
working with us to get us back into
2:08
operations
2:09
and that's exactly what we're seeing now
2:13
so in another sign of progress along
2:15
this the cdc also asked raw caribbean
2:18
to supply details of two technology
2:20
changes
2:21
that have helped make settings in
2:22
singapore successful
2:24
first of all the e-master process so
2:26
this removes the needs
2:27
for guests to congregate for the muster
2:29
drill and
2:30
secondly and importantly the contact
2:32
tracing process this combines a wearable
2:34
device which is called a tracelet in
2:36
their case
2:37
so it can tell who you've been in
2:38
contact with uh if you've been close to
2:40
an effective person
2:41
and then ai face recognition technology
2:44
which is matched to cctv which can then
2:46
confirm it
2:47
meanwhile across in the uk the
2:49
government has announced a pathway
2:51
with dates for travel to open so by
2:53
mid-may they hotel our domestic uk
2:55
travel
2:55
and by mid-june international travel so
2:58
the lines
2:59
center of the uk are starting a dialogue
3:02
on what that really means and when they
3:03
can return
3:04
and in what form that is all going to be
3:06
possible importantly as i've covered
3:08
before
3:08
the uk maritime minister has said he
3:11
and his ministry are very comfortable
3:13
with those proposed
3:15
protocols which basically reflects what
3:17
has been submitted in the united states
3:18
as well and it's been used
3:20
on settings by msc cruisers costa
3:22
cruises mine shift in europe
3:24
and of course dream and royal caribbean
3:26
out of singapore
3:27
the role of vaccines has also driven
3:29
confidence by travellers
3:30
to make bookings and the lines are
3:32
reporting a significant boost in these
3:35
in the united states
3:36
and the uk especially there are four
3:39
things that are really worth noting some
3:40
good some less good first of all
3:43
bookings have increased by a lot over 30
3:45
percent
3:46
in the first two months of 2021 compared
3:48
to the last
3:49
two months of 2020 secondly
3:53
the increase interestingly is mostly
3:55
being driven by people over 65 and again
3:58
something that michael bailey the ceo of
4:00
royal caribbean highlighted he said
4:02
and i'm going to quote here i believe
4:04
the 65 plus are getting vaccinated and
4:06
obviously becoming more comfortable in
4:09
booking
4:09
and so as more age groups also get
4:12
vaccinated
4:12
i think we're likely to see the same
4:15
groundswell of optimism
4:17
thirdly three quarters of the bookings
4:19
being made are brand new
4:21
and not using things like future cruise
4:23
credit or the lift and
4:24
shift type of program so people are now
4:27
making
4:28
new plans and planning completely new
4:31
trips
4:31
so these three show the importance of
4:33
vaccines seem to have had
4:35
in getting people motivated and
4:37
committed
4:38
to cruise once again which is great news
4:40
however the fourth effect of this
4:42
increase
4:43
in bookings has meant that prices
4:46
are rising too so lions are finding and
4:49
i assume
4:50
this is because they're having to
4:51
discount less to attract early bookings
4:53
the prices are starting to edge upwards
4:56
so the lions have all told wall street
4:57
that pricing for later in 2021 bookings
5:00
are now tracking higher than 2019 and
5:04
2022 is around about that same level
5:07
however do not draw too many conclusions
5:10
from this yet and fear that you need to
5:12
leap in and book right now
5:13
because of pricing there are still many
5:16
deals available and what i'm basically
5:18
seeing is the lines are generally
5:20
what they're doing is they're holding
5:21
the headline fair but then offering all
5:23
sorts of incentives around it so
5:25
cabin upgrades or what i'm seeing much
5:27
more commonly they're bundling in drinks
5:29
wi-fi gratuities
5:30
and extra onboard credit internet so
5:33
when you look at the total price
5:35
as a travel i still believe we are still
5:38
looking
5:38
at the overall cost of cruisers being
5:40
better but it's definitely one to watch
5:42
and i will keep an eye on that too but
5:44
the cruise lines they want to hold that
5:45
headline price
5:46
they don't want that to go down however
5:49
despite all of this
5:50
the lions still admit they have no idea
5:53
when they will be able to return to
5:55
service and also which
5:56
countries and regions will be first
5:59
so will other places open before the
6:01
united states for example
6:03
this is definitely possible so remember
6:06
we already have cruises out of italy
6:08
germany taiwan japan and singapore royal
6:11
caribbean
6:12
has arranged for grandeur of the seas to
6:14
home barbados for example so all of
6:16
these
6:17
things are happening now i've previously
6:19
reported that the norwegian cruise group
6:21
they've indicated to their crew in a
6:23
letter
6:23
that they're also exploring starting up
6:25
in europe before the united states
6:28
royal caribbean are saying that when
6:30
cruising does return
6:32
it will definitely be in a phased
6:33
approach as carnival is saying
6:35
and they're also saying they could
6:36
resume sooner in other parts of the
6:39
world including australia interestingly
6:40
enough
6:41
china or europe because that could be
6:43
quicker and that could be easier now
6:45
again
6:45
michael bailey from royal caribbean he
6:47
added and i'm going to give a quote
6:49
again
6:50
we are literally in discussions globally
6:52
the point is there's a lot of
6:54
opportunity
6:55
to start opening up globally and he goes
6:57
on to talk about that maybe easier than
6:58
before the u.s
6:59
so looking at the u.s even once they
7:02
have the test crews technical details
7:04
it will still take time for them to
7:06
digest put in place any requirements
7:08
plan recruit
7:09
and then run them then after the
7:11
framework for conditional sailing has
7:13
a six day minimum period between
7:15
successful test cruises
7:16
and getting a license to sell with
7:18
paying passengers other regions do not
7:20
have that test cruise phase
7:21
which why it means it could be quicker
7:23
so if you look at the timeline
7:25
optimistically we're talking some months
7:27
away still maybe more like
7:29
june or july which is also what as i
7:31
reported before
7:33
many of the main cruise port operators
7:34
in the us are saying
7:36
this is also i think the likely the best
7:38
timing for the uk too although i have
7:40
seen some cruise industry
7:42
insiders talking about august as being
7:44
more likely so one to watch now on the
7:46
plus
7:47
side the lions are saying that they are
7:49
very confident that by the end of 2021
7:52
and certainly into early 2022 they will
7:55
be able to return
7:56
most or all of their fleet back into
7:58
service so for example carnival
8:00
corporation ceo
8:01
arnold donald he was in a travel advisor
8:03
event in the last few days and he said
8:05
quote what i will predict is this i
8:08
think that certainly by the end of this
8:09
year
8:10
most if not all of our fleet i'm
8:12
optimistic will be in action
8:13
i think there's a really high
8:15
probability that all of them will be
8:17
back
8:18
by early next year so it's really
8:20
important to note this
8:21
as you look at your plans as the lions
8:23
are still saying clearly
8:25
they will not be running all of the
8:27
advertised cruises you can book today
8:29
even though they have all of those ships
8:31
itineraries on sale
8:33
they're not going to have a big bang or
8:36
ships
8:36
back once they restart there will be new
8:39
cruises
8:40
to meet the rules for opening you know
8:43
they'll have limited ships
8:44
different itineraries will get adjusted
8:46
based on what ports will accept
8:48
cruise ships you know we've seen
8:50
decisions with countries like canada
8:51
showing that cannot be that simple where
8:53
you can
8:54
cruise to ships will be brought out in
8:56
stages
8:57
from cold layup into service and the
8:58
logistics to get them back
9:00
crude and stock is a massive job so
9:03
please
9:03
please still be cautious if you're
9:05
thinking of booking a new
9:07
2021 cruise and carefully assess
9:10
any that you have in place already there
9:12
are some new indications
9:14
on what the four main cruise groups so
9:16
that's the carnival corporation group
9:18
norwegian cruise group royal caribbean
9:20
group and msc cruises
9:22
so there's some new indications of what
9:23
all of these are thinking on the vaccine
9:25
requirement for cruises which of course
9:27
is a really
9:27
really hot topic now all of those have
9:30
said in public that they are
9:31
seeing the vaccine rollout as the
9:34
key development that is going to unlock
9:37
cruising
9:38
and enable cruising to resume that's
9:40
really really important so for example
9:41
royal caribbean group
9:43
ceo richard fain describes the vaccines
9:45
and i'm going to quote him here
9:47
the ultimate weapon in the industry's
9:49
recovery
9:50
but when he's pushed on if they will be
9:52
required as part of the protocols
9:54
he says importantly it's too soon for
9:57
answers
9:58
with a lot depending on how effective
10:00
those vaccines
10:01
that we are all having proved to be but
10:04
then in the next sentence he goes on to
10:05
highlight
10:06
recent data suggesting that the vaccines
10:08
that are being rolled out
10:09
definitely are so that's really
10:11
interesting he also
10:12
importantly says they're waiting for
10:14
recommendations from their healthy
10:16
sailing panel
10:16
which designed the current return to
10:19
cruise protocols so he suddenly
10:21
is showing a lot of positivity about
10:23
vaccines but not quite committing
10:25
i do think it was interesting though
10:26
that raw caribbean in their recent
10:28
financial and media updates they made a
10:30
lot
10:30
of noise around the fact that their crew
10:33
support their new policy of requiring
10:35
all crew to be vaccinated so they did a
10:38
survey which they sent to 70
10:40
000 crew members they got a 98 response
10:43
that's
10:44
huge and 98 of that 98
10:47
supported the vaccine policy for the
10:49
crew so it was interesting they made a
10:50
big point about
10:51
the role of vaccinating people on board
10:54
ship the
10:55
carnival cruise line chief
10:56
communications officer a guy called
10:58
chris
10:58
chimes he said an interview with the
11:00
media recently
11:02
that i'm going to quote him here the
11:04
faster
11:05
we can all get vaccinated the better for
11:07
everything
11:08
including cruising now when asked and
11:11
pushed if he was saying that people
11:12
would actually you know absolutely have
11:14
to be required to get
11:15
that vaccine to cruise he made it clear
11:17
that he was not saying that
11:19
although he also didn't rule out the
11:21
possibility because he said
11:22
quote we just don't know that yet these
11:25
lines will of course
11:26
have to come off the fence at some point
11:28
or they will be forced to make the call
11:30
either way
11:30
in the coming months before cruising
11:32
reopens the protocols the lines are
11:35
currently proposing around the world
11:37
are ones that are being used very
11:40
successfully
11:40
by lines in europe so you've got msc
11:42
cruisers you've got costa cruisers
11:44
you've got mine shift you've got haploid
11:46
and then across in asia you've got dream
11:48
and royal caribbean so all of these
11:49
protocols are being
11:51
used successfully and of course they do
11:53
not include vaccines
11:54
but they do have a lot of testing
11:56
reduced capacity masks
11:58
social distancing cruise line and
12:00
excursions to kind of maintain that
12:02
bubble
12:02
and so on but of course they were done
12:03
in a pre-vaccine world
12:06
however with many many travelers
12:08
definitely hoping there's going to be
12:10
some
12:10
easing of some of those rules for
12:12
example one of the most important ones
12:14
is the ability to go on independent
12:16
excursions or self-tour imports
12:19
the requirement for cruise passengers to
12:20
have proof of vaccines by the ports
12:22
themselves to allow that sort of
12:24
activity
12:25
could end up forcing the issue so
12:27
definitely
12:28
a really really key one to watch and as
12:30
that evolves
12:31
and change of course i will report on
12:32
that but definitely keep an eye on that
12:35
over the next month or two because i
12:36
think it will come to a head very soon
12:38
despite all the optimism building there
12:40
is one potential threat
12:42
that both governments and cruise lines
12:44
have called out and it
12:45
is worth keeping this one absolutely
12:48
in mind and this is the threat of new
12:50
variants
12:51
of the coveted virus now as we've seen
12:53
the mutations
12:54
such as we saw coming out of the uk out
12:57
of south africa and brazil
12:59
they can throw things into absolute mall
13:02
and set you know steps forward into
13:05
haste retreat
13:06
and cause absolute chaos with plans so
13:09
in the opening up plans for example for
13:10
the country
13:12
and international travel the uk prime
13:14
minister boris johnson
13:15
made a real point of calling out the
13:17
risk of these new variants
13:19
as being because they're more infectious
13:21
or they could be resistant to existing
13:23
vaccines
13:24
as the main thing that could store plans
13:26
to open up travel and by definition
13:28
cruising and a similar warning was also
13:30
given by the royal caribbean chairman
13:32
richard fain
13:33
when talking about the various risks he
13:34
identified
13:36
new variants as the biggest risks to
13:38
cruising opening
13:39
and getting going again so lots to think
13:41
about
13:42
in the coming weeks i hope you found
13:45
this all very helpful and interesting i
13:47
have
13:47
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