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Why is it so hard to predict when an earthquake will happen and its strength?
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Mar 29, 2025
The death toll from a powerful 7.7-magnitude earthquake in Myanmar jumped to more than 1,000 on Saturday as more bodies were pulled from the rubble of scores of buildings that collapsed when it struck near the country's second-largest city.Professor Gyorgy Hetenyi, from the Institute of Earth Sciences at the University of Lausanne, explains the geology of the earthquake-affected area and suggests ways people can prepare for earthquakes, such as introducing earthquake science courses in schools, even in highly politically and socially unstable countries.
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0:00
Well, for a look then at some of the science behind Friday's earthquake, we'll bring George Hitenye on the program
0:06
He is a professor of geophysics at the Institute of Earth Sciences at the University of Lausanne
0:11
Thank you very much for joining us today, Professor Hitenye. So I want to start with the fact that central Myanmar, where large plates of the Earth's crust are in motion, is prone to powerful earthquakes
0:23
So can you tell us more about what makes Myanmar in particular vulnerable
0:27
Yes, good afternoon. This area of the Earth is known to be under geologic deformation
0:35
And the reason for that is that the India plate, which is a big tectonic plate, is constantly moving towards the north, creating the Himalaya and the Tibetan plateau
0:43
On its eastern side, it is creating this shear zone where a major strike slip fault, the Saigeng fault, is known to be active since a long time
0:50
On this fault, we have approximately two centimeters per year deformation that accumulates over decades
0:57
And when a barrier of friction is overstepped, then a big earthquake like the one yesterday happens
1:03
So two years ago, you wrote a paper calling for a comprehensive earthquake education policy in Nepal
1:09
Now, I imagine given some of the geographic vulnerability that you just talked about there, the same could be applied to Myanmar
1:15
So what types of content do you think should be emphasized to better prepare people in the region for such strong earthquakes
1:23
In general earthquake preparedness comes second or third in countries where they have bigger problems political societal or financial problems But the earthquakes usually come back after decades or a century and people need to be prepared
1:37
And I think this preparation is really too low in many of the countries where the earthquake hazard is high
1:42
So introducing earthquake science into the school, even just half an hour a month
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would help students learn what to do in preparation for an earthquake, what to do during an earthquake and what to do after an earthquake
1:54
It doesn't take a big effort to teach these aspects. It is what we started in Nepal
1:59
And yes, you're right, in Burma or Myanmar, we could do the same effort, and this would apply to many other countries in the world
2:05
So in my understanding, the state of infrastructure in Myanmar is perhaps partly to blame for the high death toll that we've seen
2:14
What makes buildings there so vulnerable to earthquake damage? I think it's the lack of finances and the lack of regulations
2:22
to build earthquake-proof buildings. We have seen that some of the bridges have collapsed
2:28
Bridges are important, very important infrastructural elements to convey not only the health forces now
2:35
but also to the trade and the local economy. Many buildings that you see in the picture also now
2:40
probably have been tilted due to the perfection of the soil. The building itself was okay, but the foundation was not correctly done
2:48
These could be regulated and controlled during the construction I hope that these kind of pictures will draw the attention of politicians to do so in the future
2:58
So more generally Professor given what we know about plate tectonics why is it so hard to predict when an earthquake is going to happen or even how strong it might be
3:09
I think we have a pretty good idea what kind of strengths, what kind of upper magnitude we can expect in any region of the Earth
3:17
because we have a good history of earthquakes and a good history of geophysical investigations on that
3:22
What remains elusive is the exact moment when the earthquake will strike. We can only give probabilities for the next 10, 20, 30 years
3:30
what is the likelihood of these earthquakes to happen. But we cannot forecast an earthquake for tonight or for tomorrow
3:36
or even say that there will not be an earthquake until tonight or tomorrow. So the time is completely impossible to predict
3:44
but we can make forecasts or probabilities for the future. And this is the current state of how science works and how earthquakes work
3:52
Now, it's been said that we know more about the surface of the moon than some of Earth's inner layers
3:58
Do you agree with that assertion? And if so, what are the consequences of this lack of knowledge on seismology in particular
4:05
I mean, where do you see opportunities to increase knowledge about earthquakes
4:11
That's right. The moon is visible with the naked eye. The inside of the Earth, we need to drill
4:16
We need to achieve physical surveys and investigations and modeling. I see two opportunities to improve our knowledge
4:22
One is having more observations and more data because the current data acquisition systems
4:28
are not homogeneously distributed around here So we need good instrumentation in countries where the funds are maybe not fully ready for that The second is we need to learn more about the processes
4:41
I think we have a good knowledge of how earthquakes work at our current level of science
4:45
but there could be more discoveries done, more studies of precursors, more studies of small signals
4:52
So there is why fundamental science and fundamental research is still in progress
4:56
to have a better understanding of the process itself. So as a final question for you, sir, we know that climate change obviously makes extreme weather events like fires, hurricanes, heat waves, etc., more intense
5:07
Does this apply to earthquakes as well? And as a kind of annex question, are there any human activities that increase the likelihood of an earthquake
5:16
I would say that the impact of climate change and the impact of human activity is, if measurable, very small on earthquakes, because the earthquake energy that is liberated is so huge that our impact is really minimal on that
5:30
Obviously, with more severe weather events like landslides, we are distressing masses on the surface of the earth and slightly changing the stress field in the crust
5:41
But this is not why an earthquake could happen 10 years before it would happen without
5:45
So I would say that the inner tectonic forces of the Earth are mostly insensitive to climate change and mostly insensitive to human activities
5:54
We can trigger some events, but not prevent or not alter the timing of big events
6:00
Super interesting stuff. Unfortunately, we have to leave it there, though. Professor George Hateni, thank you so very much for coming on the show today
6:06
Thank you. Good afternoon
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