Mali's tale of two insurgencies: 'Jihadists seek caliphate while Tuareg rebels pursue autonomy'

FRANCE 24's François Picard is joined by Ulf Laessing, Director of Regional Sahel Programme at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation. According to Mr. Laessing, we are witnessing in Mali the complete unraveling of a broader geopolitical experiment. Russia stepped into a vacuum left by France, promising stability through force. Instead, its reliance on mercenary brutality, coupled with a shallow understanding of local dynamics, has accelerated the demise of an-already fraught collaboration. The fall of Kidal and the coordinated surprise offensives reveal a shifting balance of power: jihadist groups and Tuareg rebels, historical adversaries, are now tactically aligned against a common enemy. Popular dissatisfaction with the junta coexists with a deeper fear of Islamist governance, creating a tense equilibrium that sustains the current regime. Meanwhile, regional institutions such as ECOWAS find themselves constrained, powerless to exert any meaningful influence as the Sahel region plunges deeper into conflict, isolation and instability.