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Hey ladies and gentlemen, this is Carmine Sabia for Explain America and Kamala Harris
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just got about the worst news you can get if you're an incoming candidate and she technically
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kinda is since she's the vice president before an election. But before we get started, please make sure you like, comment, share and subscribe
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hand corner, it's youtube.com forward slash at explain America. If you go there, just hit subscribe absolutely free
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It really helps us out. On CNBC today, after the jobs report came back and it was abysmal, only around a little
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over 120,000 jobs added, which is short of the goal they had and short of expectations
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And when you dig deeper into the numbers, you see that foreign born workers did a whole
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lot better than American born workers in obtaining those jobs. You also find out that a lot of those jobs are part time jobs that people are using to
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make ends meet on top of their original initial jobs. Not great news if you are the incumbent because as I've said in previous videos, elections
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almost always hinge on the economy and how people feel about the economy and which candidate
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they think will do better for the economy because people vote in their best interest
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They vote with their wallets, right? They vote with their bank accounts, they vote with their paychecks
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Well CNBC was talking about this this morning and CNBC is pretty much the authority on finance
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in the news market and several of their people believe we are either in a recession or heading
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to a recession very quickly, which is going to be tough because even if Trump wins, the
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recession is still going to happen. It's just that he could probably pull us out of it quicker, but he will get the blame for it
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He'll absolutely get the blame for it. That's just the way it is
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But we understand that this is on Joe Biden and Kamala Harris
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I want you to watch this report and then let me know what you think in the comments
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Which is sort of normal course of business, higher interest rates, higher inflation, eventually
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consumer slows down, employment markets slow down. Remember also employment markets are not a preliminary indicator of recession
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Employment markets tend to crack at the exact same time a recession starts. You're not going to see it in labor data before it happens
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And then there's structural recessions which happen due to pandemic, due to banking crisis
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due to technology bubbles. I don't think we're in the latter category
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I think we're in the type of recession eventually that comes due to this cycle of higher interest
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rates, higher inflation. The stress that puts on the consumer eventually hits their savings rates, increases their
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delinquency rates. That hits the employment markets where we're already starting to see some signs of companies
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slowing down in terms of hiring. They've paused hiring already. I think the next step will be when we start to see more layoffs
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And that then will bring you your run of the mill, more of a normal type of recession
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I was going to follow up with Betsy. You go ahead and follow up with Betsy and then we'll be at 845
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Who knows? Anything can happen. Anything can happen. Betsy, we have a few minutes here
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Can you give us your outlook on when you say this is weak, how do you go from that to your
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view on the broader economy? So, you know, there's a fine line between work, between weak and normalizing
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And what I see here is the labor market is definitely weakening and we're going to see
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people who are outside the labor market having a hard time finding jobs
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That's going to cause some pain. That's going to cause some contraction in consumer spending
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And the question will be, you know, can we sort of manage through that with policy
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I do think this is the ultimate test for the Fed right now. I completely agree with your idea
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You know, you're putting it out there. What's the Fed trying to do? It's trying to find a neutral place, a place where it gets, you know, employment and growth
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balanced with price growth. I don't think it knows where that is, but I think we can all agree right now that rates
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are too high for that. And we don't have a ton of experience
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You know, I just heard talk about a normal recession. I don't know
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We don't have a ton of experience being in the place we're at right now
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And I think the Fed is flying a little bit blind. But I do think that they've got to bring rates down quickly before we start to see things worsening
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Because when I'm looking at job growth retreating in so many sectors, it says that we, you know
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we need to do something, not so much to bolster the economy, but to at least take our foot
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off the brakes. Steve, what's happening? I have some headlines from John Williams here from the
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