'Trump Wins In A Blowout' - CNN Data Analyst Hits Kamala Harris With Harsh Reality

Hey, ladies and gentlemen, this is Carmine Sabia 4, Explain America

and new data shows that former president Donald Trump could win the 2024 presidential election

in an electoral college blowout. Before we get started, please make sure you like, comment, share, and subscribe

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CNN data guru Harry Enton has been on top of this campaign from the beginning

This matchup between first Joe Biden and Donald Trump and now Kamala Harris and Donald Trump

And the whole way it's been Kamala Harris and Trump, he said it's neck and neck. It's too tight

It's too close to call. They have no idea who's going to win this thing. But now, now the clouds are

starting to part a little bit He looking into it He seeing some things And here what he seeing He seeing that if the trends follow the 2020 line if the polling errors are the same as they were in 2020

then not only does Donald Trump win this thing, but he wins it in an electoral landslide against Harris

carrying all the Great Lakesakes plus North Carolina, plus Nevada, it could be an absolute blowout

And I tend to think from what I hear, what I see the vibe, to say vibes. The vibe I'm getting from people, I don't see how Harris could pull this off. Now

I could be totally wrong. I could be so far off here. Who knows? Right. But I'm usually pretty good at this

And I mean, even in a non-partisan fashion, not even thinking about what I want to happen

which is I want Trump to win, but not even thinking of that. It just feels like that's what's going to

happen. When you look and you listen, you talk to people, you hear what they're saying. You look at how

people think the country's going. And Kamala Harris has said herself, she wouldn't change anything

from what Joe Biden did She just an extension to him I want you to watch what he says here and let me know what you think in the comments Feel that these numbers would actually stick Okay So I consistently say this race is too close to call

So I decided to go back through history, okay? And this to me says everything

How much do the state poll averages miss by, all right? The average error since 1972 in the close races in those battleground states we've been looking at

3.4 points. 3.4 points. Every single state, all seven of those key battleground states, are within 3.4 points

What's the chance for an even larger error? You know, we talk about the margin of error, right

So what is that 95% confidence interval? What is that true margin of error

5% of errors in state polling averages are off by more, off by more than 9.4 points

These battleground states are well within that. to remember this number because the bottom line is this race is going to be too close to call

almost certainly all the way till election day it definitely going to be within this interval and it most likely going to be within this interval So the bottom line is the state polling averages tell us what it tells us is it just a race that is too close to call

Maybe one can has a slight advantage over the other one, but the bottom line is it is way too close to call, and it will remain so

Superimpose all of this really important information that you just gave us on the electoral map

Yeah, okay. So let's say the polls are exactly right. If the polls are exactly right, Kamala Harris gets 270

electoral votes to Donald Trump's 262 because she carries those Great Lake Battleground states

despite losing North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. But let's say we have a polling miss

like we had in 2020. What happens then? Well, then Donald Trump wins the election in a blowout

with 312 electoral votes because he carries all these Great Lake Battleground states plus Nevada

plus the other states he was leading in Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia. But 2020 is just

one election. What happens if we have a polling miss like 2022

Well, in that particular case, now..