'Clearly The Best Choice' - Kamala Harris VP Announcement Rocks Election

Hey, ladies and gentlemen, this is Carmine Sabia 4 Explain America

and we now have some information on Kamala Harris's vice presidential choice

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that affects their everyday lives. Guys, there's to me one choice. That's the correct choice for Kamala Harris for Vice President

It's the one choice I don't want her to pick because he terrifies me in terms of what he can be

bring to the table. I believe that he's very popular and could be very dangerous to the electoral

map for Republicans. That man's name is Josh Shapiro and he's the governor of the great state

of Pennsylvania, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, I should say. He's very smart guy. He speaks to

that area of the country very well And even CNN is saying he clearly the best choice Now we have new news about Harris pick And I going to get to that in just a second But there is a reason a horrible reason for Harris not to pick him

And that's because Harris has to appeal to the anti-Semites in her party

The anti-Semites in her party would not be very happy with her picking a Jewish vice president

That's why a lot of people believe she won't pick Shapiro. Me

I don't know who she's going to pick, but she said at the beginning of next week, she will announce that pick, and they will start going on a tour of the swing states

I want you to watch this video, and let me know what you think in the comments

I would suggest that whoever she picks up as her running mate could help give her the edge

The pool of VP candidates is starting to thin out now as of this morning, and I guess it should because they're kind of out of time

Michigan Governor Gretchen Gretchen-Wenmer saying she's not part of the vetting process

North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper withdrawing himself from the candidate pool just last night

That is where CNN's Harry Inton comes in. Talk to me about these VP candidates and some of the top candidates, if you will, how they do electorally in their states

Yeah, so, you know, nationally a lot of these guys aren't particularly well-known, so I think it's important to look at their home states

The people who know them best, to get an understanding, okay, of how popular these guys

can potentially be So this is how much they outperform Biden 2020 margin in their last election All these guys ran in 2022 And the one name that just stands out on this list is Josh Shapiro from

Pennsylvania. Look at this. He outperformed Biden by 14 points. My goodness gracious, look how large

that is. Sometimes I think an answer is just staring you straight in the face. And in this

particular case, Josh Shapiro is looking at you right in the face. Look, Mark Kelly's not too paid either

right? He outperformed Biden by five points. And keep in mind, he was running in a federal race

which isn't quite apples and apples right with a gubernatorial statewide race

But still, five points, not bad, outran all the other Democrats in Arizona. Tim Walsh, who seems to have been picking up some sort of momentum on social media

But look at this. He only outperformed Biden by 0.6 points, very much on a different planet than, let's say, a Josh Shapiro

who's the clear runaway winner on this particular metric. Isn't there proof that the VP candidate can help him carry a state

Right. So we look at all of this, right? Okay, what does this exactly mean

there is one proven effect for a VP, right? And it is, in fact, this home state effect

Look, it's not necessarily particularly large. It's 0.5 to 2 points on average, added to the running mate's margin compared to the baseline

But you know how close elections. That's how much they're going to be. This is the whole ballgame

I mean, Pennsylvania last time was decided by 1.2 points. You look at Arizona, it was decided by 0.3 points

If you able to add 0 to 2 points that could all of a sudden help you capture a state like Arizona or Pennsylvania especially when you got guys like Shapiro who outran Biden by 14 points or

Mark Kelly who outran Biden by five points. They could definitely be the types of candidates who

could help put one of those two states over the top. Which of the top candidates' home states

is most likely, maybe most important for Harris or Trump to win? Yeah, there you go. So if you're

let's say you're choosing between a Mark Kelly and you're choosing between him and Josh Shapiro

which of these two states is the one that you actually want to provide that boost to

So this will give you an idea, all right? The chance that this state puts either Harris or Trump over the top in the electoral college

Once again, look at Pennsylvania as the clear runaway winner here. A 30% chance, a 30% chance that that is the state that puts you over the top of the electoral college

Arizona, it's just a 4%. Minnesota is less than a 3%. Why is Pennsylvania so important

Well, it has so many electoral votes. that has 19 electoral votes, right? So if you're able to put that in your back pocket

all of a sudden, your electoral map for Kamala Harris becomes that much easier

and it makes Donald Trump's map a lot more harder. Or a lot harder, I should say

Not a lot more harder is also a way to say. Not leading us to any conclusion, though

where shall end up, but interesting nonetheless. Interesting, nonetheless. I don't know which way she'll go

but the math points in a very clear direction of my mind. It's good to see here

Nice to see you