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Are you having the same conversation
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with your friends that I'm having with
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mine? While last night it was all about
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Oasis. They were amazing at Wembley. The
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main topic these days is in fact whether
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or not to leave the country or at least
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the state of the country and what it
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means for the future. Welcome to the
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week in business with me Christian May.
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I've been the editor of CCAM on and off
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since 2015 and I've seen my fair share
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of Britain is doomed stories. We had
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them a plenty during Brexit. We
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certainly had them during the dying days
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of the last government. And of course,
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this sentiment is often driven by
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politics. I don't like the government
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we've got. I don't like its policies.
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Country's gone to the dogs. It's frankly
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part of the British character. But it
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feels as if something has changed. The
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sentiment I detect, the sentiment I feel
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myself is that the country's decline is
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now strikingly evident. And while this
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government hasn't helped, the emergence
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of this state of mind is down to bigger
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factors than one election result or one
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particular government. I can only speak
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for people I spend most of my time with,
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largely professional, largely middle
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class, mostly nearing 40. And I can't
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even speak for all of them of course but
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among this cohort friends of mine
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contacts family even I don't think a
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single one of them feels that the
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country or their experience of it is on
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the up. Now I'm an optimistic guy and
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city is an optimistic newspaper. I can
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point to evidence of success or progress
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or innovation or dynamism but I've come
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to feel that these examples break
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through in spite of the conditions we
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face not because of them. In other
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words, the country doesn't have the wind
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at its back. You could argue it's been
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this way for years and to varying
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degrees you would be right. Structurally
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we have been hauled below the waterline
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since 2008. Productivity, earnings,
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living standards all have stagnated.
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Consider the astonishing fact that once
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you adjust for inflation, the average
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working person in Britain today probably
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earns a lower or not very different wage
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now than the average working person in
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2008. I wrote a column recently
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suggesting that Britain is a poor
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country pretending to be a rich one. And
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when looking at GDP per capita, we are
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decidedly middle of the pack by European
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standards and embarrassingly far behind
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America. The perhead figure in the UK is
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around 37,000 in contrast to £60,000 in
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the US. This week, the US economy
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recorded a growth rate of 3%. Do you
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know when the UK economy last grew at
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that rate? More than a decade ago in
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2014. And that was unusual. Excluding
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the post-lockdown bounceback, the best
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we've done over the past decade was 2.2%
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in 2015. As for today, growth isn't
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registering. Growth is at the heart of
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this story. But individual pages tell a
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more complex, albeit related story.
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We're taxed too much. We're writing
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checks we can't cash. We've lost control
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of basic state functions such as border
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security while house prices skyrocket
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and shoplifting and phone theft become
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the norm on our streets. And we can
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muddle through these conditions because
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we always do. And there will be pockets
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of success and grounds for optimism here
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and there. But what of our trajectory?
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I'm a father of two young children, five
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and eight. So I think about the future a
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lot. I think about their future. And
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that means I think about the level of
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public debt, the commitments to public
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spending on pensions and welfare, the
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insane vulnerability of our public
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finances, and the fact that
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astonishingly typical real income is set
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to grow by a pointless 1% over the next
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5 years. Meaning that the lost decade we
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endured since 2008 is turning into a
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lost 20 years. That is a generational
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And so that's the context in which so
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many people I know talk about leaving
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the country. A poll this week showed
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that just under 30% of the under30s are
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either seriously considering leaving or
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are actively planning to do so. Well,
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good luck to them. But here's the thing.
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The vast majority of the people I know
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who talk and feel as I do about the
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uncertainty of the future, about the
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fact that life just feels tougher than
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it ought to will not leave. I certainly
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won't. Professional ties, family ties,
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loyalty, circumstances, a preference for
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this country despite its challenges will
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keep us here. And so we'll plow on,
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wading through ever higher taxes towards
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an increasingly uncertain future. That's
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just the way of it. But many will leave.
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And not just the non-doms and the super
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rich, but people who feel rightly that
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their efforts aren't rewarded here, that
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taxes or regulations or political
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decisions just aren't in their favor.
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And that will be a loss. It will be a
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huge loss that this country can ill
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afford. And in the meantime, those of us
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that stay will wait for our politics to
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catch up with reality. Maybe Labor will
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engineer that much needed growth. Maybe
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the Tories will return from opposition
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with a bold plan for renewal. Maybe
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somebody else will. Not much business in
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the week in business this week, but it's
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my show and I'll moan if I want to. I'll
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be back next week, though. And in the
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meantime, stay up to date and in the
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know with the city app and on city.com.
